Hall of Fame Probability Platform
WAR and WAA are the primary signals (60% of score). Active players receive an age-trajectory projection to age 38. Relievers use a separate model where saves, ERA+, and games dominate. Probabilities are calibrated so players at the HOF median score ~80%.
Top HOF Candidates
Sorted by projected probability · click any card for detailTop Batters
Top Pitchers
Batter HOF Probabilities
WAR (35 pts) + WAA (25 pts) = 60% of score. WAR→ and WAA→ show projected career totals for active players. HOF medians: WAR 61.1 · WAA 30.0 · HR 221 · H 2384 · OPS+ 126.
Starting Pitcher HOF Probabilities
WAR (35 pts) + WAA (25 pts) dominant. Volume: W/SO/IP (15 pts). Quality: ERA+/WHIP (10 pts). HOF medians: WAR 66.1 · WAA 34.2 · W 254 · SO 2266 · ERA+ 121.
Relief Pitcher HOF Probabilities
Separate model from starters. Saves (30 pts ★), ERA+ (20 pts ★), Games/durability (20 pts ★) are primary. HOF RP medians: SV 406 · ERA+ 136 · G 1028 · WAR 35.4.
HOF Probability Leaderboard
Top 40 players across all positions by probability.
Scoring Methodology
Calibration & Probability Scale
All probabilities derive from a logistic sigmoid of HOF Score, calibrated so HOF-median-level players score ~80%. Active players use projected WAR/WAA (to age 38), so Ramírez and Lindor (both ~56 WAR at 31–32) project to 74–79 WAR and read ~95%. Starters use a slightly lower center (68 vs 74) to reflect that elite career WAR/WAA is more achievable over 20-year careers.
| Score | Bat / SP % | RP % | Meaning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 43% | 20% | Borderline / fringe |
| 91 (bat median) | 79% | 48% | HOF-median batter |
| 100 | 88% | 60% | Strong candidate |
| 110 | 94% | 73% | Near-lock (Ramírez tier) |
| 118+ | 98%+ | 84%+ | Clear HOF (Kershaw, Scherzer tier) |
| 108 (RP median) | — | 71% | HOF-median reliever |