library(forecast)
leche <- c(
25520.51,23740.11,26253.58,25868.43,27072.87,27150.50,27067.10,28145.25,27546.29,28400.37,27441.98,27852.47,
28463.69,26996.11,29768.20,29292.51,29950.68,30099.17,30851.26,32271.76,31940.74,32995.93,32197.12,31984.82,
32496.44,31287.28,33376.02,32949.77,34004.11,33757.89,32927.30,34324.12,35151.28,36133.07,34799.91,34846.17
)
serie_leche <- ts(data = leche,
start = c(2017,1),
frequency = 12)
serie_leche
## Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
## 2017 25520.51 23740.11 26253.58 25868.43 27072.87 27150.50 27067.10 28145.25
## 2018 28463.69 26996.11 29768.20 29292.51 29950.68 30099.17 30851.26 32271.76
## 2019 32496.44 31287.28 33376.02 32949.77 34004.11 33757.89 32927.30 34324.12
## Sep Oct Nov Dec
## 2017 27546.29 28400.37 27441.98 27852.47
## 2018 31940.74 32995.93 32197.12 31984.82
## 2019 35151.28 36133.07 34799.91 34846.17
modelo <- auto.arima(serie_leche)
modelo
## Series: serie_leche
## ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)[12] with drift
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 sar1 drift
## 0.6383 -0.5517 288.8980
## s.e. 0.1551 0.2047 14.5025
##
## sigma^2 = 202700: log likelihood = -181.5
## AIC=371 AICc=373.11 BIC=375.72
summary(modelo)
## Series: serie_leche
## ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)[12] with drift
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 sar1 drift
## 0.6383 -0.5517 288.8980
## s.e. 0.1551 0.2047 14.5025
##
## sigma^2 = 202700: log likelihood = -181.5
## AIC=371 AICc=373.11 BIC=375.72
##
## Training set error measures:
## ME RMSE MAE MPE MAPE MASE
## Training set 25.22163 343.863 227.1699 0.08059942 0.7069541 0.06491041
## ACF1
## Training set 0.2081043
pronostico <- forecast(modelo, level = c(95), h = 12)
pronostico
## Point Forecast Lo 95 Hi 95
## Jan 2020 35498.90 34616.48 36381.32
## Feb 2020 34202.17 33155.29 35249.05
## Mar 2020 36703.01 35596.10 37809.92
## Apr 2020 36271.90 35141.44 37402.36
## May 2020 37121.98 35982.07 38261.90
## Jun 2020 37102.65 35958.91 38246.40
## Jul 2020 37151.04 36005.74 38296.35
## Aug 2020 38564.65 37418.71 39710.59
## Sep 2020 38755.23 37609.03 39901.42
## Oct 2020 39779.03 38632.73 40925.33
## Nov 2020 38741.63 37595.29 39887.97
## Dec 2020 38645.86 37499.50 39792.22
plot(pronostico)
