1 Introduction

1.1 The Theoretical Context: Modernization and Value Change

Cultural values change over time due to economic growth and generational shifts. According to the Modernization Theory proposed by Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel, as societies transition from agrarian to industrial and post-industrial economies, their moral landscape undergoes a fundamental shift.

This shift typically occurs along two major axes:

  1. From Traditional to Secular-Rational values: Societies move away from religious authority and absolute moral norms toward secularism and rationalism.
  2. From Survival to Self-Expression values: As existential security increases, priorities shift from physical survival to subjective well-being, tolerance, and individual liberty.

1.2 The Methodological Challenge

While the theory is well-established, visualizing this “cultural drift” over time is statistically complex. A simple comparison of means ignores the multidimensional structure of culture. Moreover, constructing separate maps (e.g., via PCA or MDS) for different time periods often results in unrelated coordinate systems, making direct comparison impossible due to arbitrary rotations.

To address this, this study employs a rigorous geometric approach combining Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) with Procrustes Analysis.

1.3 Study Objective

The primary objective of this research is to map the trajectory of global cultural change between two distinct epochs:

  • The Turn of the Century (\(T_1\)): Represented by the average of data from 1995-2004.
  • The Modern Era (\(T_2\)): Represented by the average of data from 2015-2023.

By aligning the cultural “constellations” of these two periods, we aim to visualize the “arrows of change,” identifying which nations have undergone the most profound moral transformations regarding religion, trust, and post-materialism.

2 Data and Methodology

2.1 Dataset and Source

The empirical analysis was conducted using the Quality of Government (QoG) Standard Dataset (January 2025 version). The primary source of the cultural indicators utilized in this study is the World Values Survey (WVS), which provides comparative data on changing values and their impact on social and political life.

2.2 Variable Selection and Transformation

Five key variables representing distinct dimensions of the moral and cultural landscape were selected for the analysis. To ensure intuitive interpretability of the geometric space, specific variables were reverse-coded so that higher numerical values consistently reflect a higher intensity of the measured trait.

The following indicators were included:

  1. Importance of Religion: Original scale inverted, where higher values denote greater religious significance.
  2. Generalized Trust: Binary assessment of whether “most people can be trusted.”
  3. Happiness: Original scale inverted, where higher values indicate a higher subjective feeling of happiness.
  4. Justifiability of Bribes: Measured on a 1-10 scale (moral rigidity vs. flexibility).
  5. Post-Materialist Index (4-item): Assessing the shift from material security to self-expression values.

2.3 Temporal Aggregation and Sample Selection

To facilitate a longitudinal comparison of cultural drift, the time series data were aggregated into two distinct epochs:

  • Period 1 (T1): The “Turn of the Century” (averages calculated from data collected between 1995 and 2004).
  • Period 2 (T2): The “Modern Era” (averages calculated from data collected between 2015 and 2023).

A strict inclusion criterion was applied: only sovereign states possessing valid data points for both time periods were retained. This filtering process resulted in a balanced dataset of 67 countries, ensuring that the observed shifts are attributable to internal cultural evolution rather than sample composition changes.

2.4 Analytical Strategy: MDS and Procrustes

The analytical framework consists of two sequential steps:

First, Metric Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) was employed to reduce the five-dimensional cultural space into a two-dimensional coordinate system. Prior to dimensionality reduction, all variables were standardized (-score normalization) to eliminate scale differences. Euclidean distance was used as the dissimilarity measure.

Second, Procrustes Analysis was applied to compare the cultural configurations of \(T_1\) and \(T_2\). Since MDS maps are invariant to rotation and reflection, direct coordinate comparison is invalid. Procrustes analysis solves this by finding the optimal translation, rotation, and scaling to superimpose the configuration (2000) onto the configuration (2020). The “Procrustes residuals” (visualized as vectors) represent the true magnitude and direction of cultural change over the two decades.

3 Empirical Analysis

3.1 Goodness of Fit and Dimensionality Reduction

First, the complex, five-dimensional cultural space was reduced into an interpretable two-dimensional map. The quality of this reduction was evaluated by correlating the original Euclidean distances with the distances preserved in the MDS configuration.

An \(R^2\) value of 0.8304 was obtained. This result indicates that approximately 83% of the variance in the original cultural distances is successfully captured by the two-dimensional model. Consequently, the resulting map is considered a highly reliable representation of the global moral landscape, allowing for valid geometric interpretation.

3.2 Global Structural Stability (Procrustes Statistics)

To quantify the total magnitude of cultural shift between the “Turn of the Century” (2000) and the “Modern Era” (2020), Procrustes statistics were calculated.

## [1] "Procrustes Analysis Result:"
## 
## Call:
## procrustes(X = mds_2000, Y = mds_2020, symmetric = FALSE) 
## 
## Procrustes sum of squares:
## 121.9

A Procrustes Sum of Squares (SS) of 121.89 was recorded across the 67 analyzed nations. This metric represents the minimized sum of squared distances between the aligned configurations. While this value confirms that a measurable shift has occurred, the relatively low Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE = 1.35) suggests that the global “constellation” of cultures has not disintegrated. Instead, the structural relationships between countries (e.g., the relative distance between Scandinavian and Latin American countries) have remained somewhat stable, even as the entire system drifts.

3.3 Visualizing the “Arrows of Change”

The trajectory of cultural evolution is visualized in the Procrustes plot below. In this diagram:

  • The start of the arrow represents a country’s cultural position in the period 1995-2004.
  • The head of the arrow (dot) represents its position in 2015-2023.
  • The length of the arrow corresponds to the speed and magnitude of cultural change.

Three critical observations can be derived from the visual analysis:

  1. Directional Homogeneity: A dominant direction of change is observed for a majority of nations, consistent with the Modernization Theory. This vector typically points towards higher Secular-Rational values and greater Self-Expression, suggesting a global, albeit uneven, trend towards liberalization.
  2. Velocity of Change: Significant heterogeneity is found in the magnitude of change. While established democracies often show shorter vectors (indicating cultural stability), rapidly developing economies tend to exhibit longer vectors, reflecting profound societal transformation within a single generation.
  3. Regional Clustering: Distinct clusters remain visible despite the movement. The geometric distance between cultural zones (e.g., the cluster of high-trust, secular nations vs. the cluster of traditional, survival-oriented nations) has been preserved, validating the persistence of deep-seated cultural heritage.

4 Conclusions

The objective of this study was to empirically test the stability of cultural values and to visualize the trajectory of moral change across 67 nations between the turn of the century and the modern era. Based on the application of Multidimensional Scaling and Procrustes Analysis, several key conclusions are drawn.

4.1 Validation of Cultural Dynamism

The hypothesis of static cultural persistence is effectively challenged by the empirical evidence. The graphical analysis confirms that national cultures are not fixed entities, rather, they are subject to a measurable “drift.” The presence of distinct vectors (arrows) for nearly all analyzed countries indicates that moral values, specifically those regarding religion, trust, and civic morality, have evolved significantly over the two-decade period.

4.2 Alignment with Modernization Theory

A directional consistency was observed in the movement of the majority of nations, lending support to Inglehart’s Modernization Theory. The dominant vector of change suggests a global transition from traditional, survival-oriented values toward secular-rational and self-expression values. However, it is noted that this process is not uniform, while the direction is shared, the velocity of change varies substantially between established post-industrial democracies and developing economies.

4.3 Methodological Implications

Methodologically, the utility of Procrustes Analysis for longitudinal social research has been demonstrated. Unlike static “snapshots” which merely show differences between countries at a single point in time, the Procrustes approach successfully isolated the vector of change. By minimizing the sum of squared differences (SS=121.89), the analysis filtered out statistical noise, allowing for a precise visualization of the true cultural shifts.

5 References

  1. Teorell, J., et al. (2025). The Quality of Government Standard Dataset. University of Gothenburg: The Quality of Government Institute.
  2. Inglehart, R., & Welzel, C. (2005). Modernization, Cultural Change, and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  3. Mardia, K. V., Kent, J. T., & Bibby, J. M. (1979). Multivariate Analysis. London: Academic Press. (Source for Procrustes Analysis methodology).
  4. Borg, I., & Groenen, P. J. F. (2005). Modern Multidimensional Scaling: Theory and Applications. New York: Springer.