Can Capitalism Save Democracy?

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.title[
# Can Capitalism Save Democracy?
]
.author[
### Semuhi Sinanoglu
]
.institute[
### IDOS
]
.date[
### 2026-01-16
]

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.center-middle-inverse[
<h1>About me</h1>
]

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# Outline

1. Who are the business elites? Do they have ideology? What separates them from others? Why do they matter?

--

2. What incentivizes businesses to support dictators? What kind of support do they offer? Is it a mistake for businesses to succumb to political pressure?

--

3. What motivates businesses to support democracy? Why does their support matter? How do they contribute?

---

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# Who is the business elite?

---

# 1. Who is the business elite?

## Different operationalizations

- Marxist-Leninist definition

--

- Top managerial positions in top firms

--

- industrialists, merchants, or small entrepreneurs

--

- Domestic business community / All private sector

--

<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/207583c1b856e2d836c7eb8dc5422ad29dba8aca/spectrum.png?raw=true" width="80%" height="250px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---

# 1. Who is the business elite?

## Public-private divide is tricky...

- Miliband (1969) vs. Poulantzas (1975) debate

--

<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/587009c62bfd0e20b97e128b7de58caf992cc0b7/capture.png?raw=true" width="80%" height="250px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

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# 1. Who is the business elite?

## Do they have an ideology?

- How does one infer the political ideology of a company?

--

.pull-left[
- Are they more likely to be conservative/Republican? 
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/e876b874879894098946be498329cc6d92d3d120/bjop-business.png?raw=true" width="100%" height="100px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

.pull-left[
- Is there any variation by sector or demographics?
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/e876b874879894098946be498329cc6d92d3d120/ajps-business.png?raw=true" width="100%" height="100px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]
--

- Would businesses support more taxation?

--

- Can businesses be 'religious'?

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# 1. Who is the business elite?

## Their significance

<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/d0fccc6e64399a40ce14a65aab194b799e407247/business_support_evolution.jpeg?raw=true" width="80%" height="300px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---

class: inverse, center, middle

# What incentivizes businesses to support dictators?

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# 2. What incentivizes businesses to support dictators?

## An overview of the autocratic toolkit

<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/e876b874879894098946be498329cc6d92d3d120/toolkit.png?raw=true" width="80%" height="250px" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />

---

# 2. What incentivizes businesses to support dictators?

## Fear of repression

.pull-left[
- tax fines and audits, anti-trust laws
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://static.bianet.org/system/uploads/1/articles/spot_image/000/109/595/original/do_an_erdo_an_b.jpg" width="60%" height="120px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

.pull-left[
- bankruptcy trustees, loss of registration, frozen accounts
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://hongkongfp.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/DSCF1640-Copy.jpg" width="60%" height="120px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

---

# 2. What incentivizes businesses to support dictators?

## Fear of repression

.pull-left[
- expropriation, corporate raids
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://dims.apnews.com/dims4/default/3347457/2147483647/strip/true/crop/8518x5670+0+4/resize/320x213!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.apnews.com%2Fc4%2F02%2F629e8701709c4ef626d6a2d889fa%2F9b33b9fb5bb0416e8f169756efee5109" width="60%" height="120px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

- criminal investigations, imprisonment

--

- attempted assasinations, kidnappings

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# 2. What incentivizes businesses to support dictators?

## The benefits of cooptation

- relaxed regulatory oversight

--

- trade monopolies, concessions, capital controls

--

- public loans, credits, procurement

---

# 2. What incentivizes businesses to support dictators?

## Support mechanisms

- pro-government media

--

.pull-left[
- electoral pressure on employees
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/71nLtyfH1HL._SY522_.jpg" width="70%" height="250px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

- funding vanity projects

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# 2. What incentivizes businesses to support dictators?

## Is it a mistake?

--

.pull-left[
<img src="https://www.direkt36.hu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/simicska3.gif" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto auto auto 0;" />
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/e876b874879894098946be498329cc6d92d3d120/gop-semuhi.png?raw=true" width="100%" height="200px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

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# What motivates to support democracy?

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# 3. What motivates to support democracy?

## Nudges

.pull-left[
- stakeholder mobilization and reputational costs
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://github.com/semuhi/autocracy-intro/blob/e876b874879894098946be498329cc6d92d3d120/stakeholders.png?raw=true" width="100%" height="250px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

- commercial interests

--

- ideological commitment

--

- our new research project: #DemCor

---

# 3. What motivates to support democracy?

## A powerful ally

- fund opposition parties

--

.pull-left[
- protest movements
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://canadiandimension.com/images/articles/_resized/Orange_Revolution_2004_cropped.jpg" width="100%" height="150px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

.pull-left[
- independent, public interest media, fight FIMI
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://ec.europa.eu/avservices/avs/files/video6/repository/prod/photo/store/store2/19/P-068299_00-07_03-MED-861510.jpg" width="100%" height="150px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

- activism behind closed doors

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# 3. What motivates to support democracy?

## Corporate Political Responsibility (CPR)

.pull-left[
- We Stand for Values (Germany)
]

.pull-right[
<img src="https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSMPrSrD6PNirkWFm8MsVg6R-UsqzbQzLlRyw&s" width="90%" height="150px" style="display: block; margin: auto 0 auto auto;" />
]

--

- Business and Democracy (US)

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# Main takeaway

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# Any questions?

semuhi.sinanoglu@idos-research.de