ASER - SDG 3.8.1 in sub-regions of Europe

As an additional descriptive sensitivity analysis, I explored within-region heterogeneity by grouping EUR countries into sub-regions (Western, Northern, Southern, Central and Eastern Europe, plus Central Asia and Western Asia) and plotting ASER against both overall UHC SCI and the Infectious Disease sub-index.

The steepest and most coherent negative gradients were observed in Western and Northern Europe, where both service coverage and mortality surveillance are generally strongest. The gradient was clearer for the Infectious Disease sub-index than for overall UHC SCI, consistent with the main regression findings.

In Southern and Central Europe, associations remained negative but showed greater scatter. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, the relationship was weaker and more dispersed, with some countries (e.g., Kazakhstan) showing high ASER despite relatively high UHC scores.

These patterns suggest that the main EUR signal is not driven solely by a handful of high-income Western countries, but also highlight that data quality, structural vulnerabilities, and epidemic trajectories vary substantially across sub-regions. The noisier associations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia underline the influence of uncertainty in excess mortality estimation and unmeasured contextual factors, supporting a cautious interpretation of sub-regional differences.

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