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Notes

The updated trend to week 24 is marked by a sharp and unexpected surge at week 23, with cases rising to 291 (+174.5%, Rt 2.06) — the most pronounced single-week increase observed in months — before dropping back to 176 in week 24 (−39.5%, Rt 0.70). Five deaths were reported in week 24 (CFR 2.8%), the highest weekly death count in recent weeks. The three-week moving average rose to 191, reflecting the influence of the week 23 spike. The sudden rise and fall warrants careful interpretation and may reflect a genuine transient resurgence or a reporting delay/batch effect. Most cases continue to occur among individuals aged 5 years and above, who remain the main drivers of transmission.

Notes

The two-week spatial pattern (W23–W24) shows a marked intensification in central urban LGAs, driven largely by the week 23 surge. The two-week attack rate is highest in Ungogo (12.4/100,000, CFR 3.6%), Dala (11.5/100,000), and Fagge (11.5/100,000), followed by Gwale (9.8/100,000) and Kumbotso (8.1/100,000, CFR 4.5%). Seven deaths were reported over the two-week period: Ungogo (3), Kumbotso (2), Tarauni (1, CFR 10%), and Dawakin Tofa (1, CFR 12.5%) — the latter two retain elevated case fatality despite relatively low case counts. Peripheral and rural LGAs continue to report no or minimal transmission. The overall two-week AR stands at 2.7/100,000, with cumulative totals now reaching 10,338 cases and 475 deaths (CFR 4.6%).

Cases, Deaths, AR and CFR by LGA - up to 2026-W24
LGA Cases W24 Deaths W24 Cases W23-W24 Deaths W23-W24 AR/100k W23-W24 CFR% W23-W24 Total Cases Total Deaths CFR (%)
Dala 34 0 88 0 11.5 0 1363 28 2.1
Ungogo 29 2 84 3 12.4 3.6 2457 92 3.7
Nasarawa 28 0 68 0 6.2 0 1777 69 3.9
Gwale 22 0 65 0 9.8 0 1196 37 3.1
Kumbotso 9 1 44 2 8.1 4.5 946 47 5
Fagge 24 0 42 0 11.5 0 727 16 2.2
Kano Municipal 12 0 37 0 5.5 0 570 17 3
Out Of Area 2 0 10 0 0 0 74 21 28.4
Tarauni 5 1 10 1 2.5 10 396 27 6.8
Dawakin Tofa 8 1 8 1 1.8 12.5 141 11 7.8
Gezawa 2 0 5 0 1 0 132 7 5.3
Tofa 1 0 1 0 0.6 0 19 2 10.5
Wudil 0 0 1 0 0.3 0 23 4 17.4
Kura 0 0 1 0 0.4 0 39 5 12.8
Garko 0 0 1 0 0.3 0 7 2 28.6
Albasu 0 0 1 0 0.3 0 4 0 0
Tsanyawa 0 0 1 0 0.3 0 5 0 0
Dawakin Kudu 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 7 10.4
Katagum 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Garun Mallam 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 1 7.7
Bichi 0 0 0 0 0 0 23 7 30.4
Tudun Wada 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 11.1
Kabo 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Minjibir 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 9 27.3
Warawa 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 2 5.3
Kiru 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 25
Sumaila 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 4 50
Unknown 0 0 0 0 0 0 141 40 28.4
Madobi 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 12.5
Gaya 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 33.3
Bebeji 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
Dambatta 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 2 15.4
Bunkure 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 5 35.7
Gabasawa 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 5 23.8
Rimin Gado 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0
Bagwai 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 50
Rano 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 33.3
Takai 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
Kibiya 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 50
Makoda 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Ajingi 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Rogo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shanono 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Doguwa 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 33.3
Gwarzo 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Karaye 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kunchi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Garzo 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Dawakun Tofa 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
Bagawai 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
TOTAL 176 5 467 7 2.7 1.5 10338 475 4.6
Note

Up to week 24, the epidemiological picture is marked by a sharp surge at week 23 (291 cases, Rt 2.06, +174.5%) — the most abrupt single-week increase in months — followed by a drop to 176 cases at week 24 (−39.5%, Rt 0.70). Five deaths were reported in week 24 (CFR 2.8%), and the two-week CFR (W23–W24) is 1.5% (7 deaths among 467 cases). The three-week moving average rose to 191, driven by the week 23 spike. The Rt oscillation between 2.06 (W23) and 0.70 (W24) signals instability in transmission dynamics. Cumulative totals now stand at 10,338 cases and 475 deaths (CFR 4.6%). Continued close monitoring is warranted in coming weeks, particularly for mortality signals in Tarauni and Dawakin Tofa.