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The updated trend to week 20 shows a more pronounced deceleration in transmission, with a significant decline from 191 cases in week 19 to 133 in week 20 (−30.4%). The three-week moving average has dropped to 173.3, reflecting a downward trajectory. No deaths were reported in week 20, with a weekly CFR of 0%. Rt fell further to 0.77 in week 20, well below 1, indicating a clearer slowdown compared with previous weeks. Most cases continue to occur among individuals aged 5 years and above, who remain the main drivers of transmission.
The spatial pattern remains concentrated in central urban LGAs, with Ungogo, Nasarawa, Dala, Gwale, Kumbotso, and Kano Municipal continuing to account for most recent cases. The two-week attack rate (W19–W20) is highest in Ungogo (10.0/100,000), Gwale (6.6/100,000), and Dala (6.1/100,000), confirming persistent transmission within the metropolitan core, though at lower intensity than in previous weeks. The only death in the last two weeks was reported in Kumbotso (CFR 3.2%). Peripheral and border LGAs continue to report no or minimal transmission. The overall two-week AR across Kano State stands at 1.9/100,000, with a cumulative CFR of 4.8% (465 deaths out of 9,615 total cases). The urban transmission corridor persists but shows early signs of deceleration consistent with the recent Rt decline.
| LGA | Cases W20 | Deaths W20 | Cases W19-W20 | Deaths W19-W20 | AR/100k W19-W20 | CFR% W19-W20 | Total Cases | Total Deaths | CFR (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ungogo | 14 | 0 | 68 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 2320 | 88 | 3.8 |
| Nasarawa | 29 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 5.6 | 0 | 1666 | 69 | 4.1 |
| Dala | 26 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 6.1 | 0 | 1227 | 28 | 2.3 |
| Gwale | 21 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 6.6 | 0 | 1101 | 37 | 3.4 |
| Kumbotso | 14 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 873 | 45 | 5.2 |
| Kano Municipal | 10 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 3.7 | 0 | 523 | 17 | 3.3 |
| Fagge | 8 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.8 | 0 | 670 | 15 | 2.2 |
| Dawakin Tofa | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 | 0 | 120 | 10 | 8.3 |
| Tarauni | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 380 | 25 | 6.6 |
| Dawakin Kudu | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 7 | 10.6 |
| Gezawa | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | 0 | 125 | 7 | 5.6 |
| Out Of Area | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 21 | 32.8 |
| Wudil | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 18.2 |
| Albasu | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dambatta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 15.4 |
| Katagum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tofa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 11.1 |
| Garun Mallam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 7.7 |
| Bichi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 7 | 31.8 |
| Tudun Wada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 11.1 |
| Kabo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Minjibir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 9 | 27.3 |
| Kura | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 5 | 14.3 |
| Garko | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 33.3 |
| Warawa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 5.3 |
| Kiru | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| Tsanyawa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Sumaila | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 50 |
| Unknown | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 40 | 28.4 |
| Madobi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Gaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| Bebeji | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Bunkure | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 35.7 |
| Gabasawa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 5 | 23.8 |
| Rimin Gado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
| Bagwai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| Rano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3 |
| Takai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Kibiya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 50 |
| Makoda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ajingi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rogo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shanono | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Doguwa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 33.3 |
| Gwarzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Karaye | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kunchi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawakun Tofa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Bagawai | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 133 | 0 | 324 | 1 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 9615 | 465 | 4.8 |
Up to week 20, weekly transmission shows a more marked decline, with cases dropping to 133 in week 20 from 191 in week 19 (−30.4%). No deaths were reported in week 20, and the two-week CFR (W19-W20) is 0.3% (one death among 324 cases). Rt has dropped to 0.77 the lowest value in recent weeks and the three-week moving average has declined to 173.3, both pointing to a meaningful slowdown in transmission intensity. Overall, the epidemiological pattern suggests an encouraging reduction in activity, though sustained hotspot transmission in central urban LGAs warrants continued monitoring.