Protected dashboard

Please enter the password

Notes

In 2026, weekly cases declined from late-2025 peaks but remained persistently elevated, indicating ongoing transmission without full interruption. The epidemiological curve shows a stable but high plateau with gradual fluctuations rather than a clear downward trend. The case fatality ratio remained low and stable throughout 2026, reflecting sustained improvements in case detection and clinical management. However, the effective reproduction number continued to oscillate around 1, with occasional spikes above the threshold, signaling intermittent increases in transmission and risk of localized outbreaks. Overall, the situation in 2026 suggests partial control of the outbreak, characterized by reduced severity but continued endemic transmission with potential for resurgence.

Notes

The recent spatial pattern shows a heterogeneous but clearly structured transmission, with sustained high intensity in central urban LGAs-particularly Kano Municipal, Ungogo, Nasarawa, Tarauni, and adjacent areas-forming a continuous transmission belt. These LGAs act as persistent hotspots, likely driven by high population density, mobility, and cross-LGA interactions, maintaining ongoing transmission despite overall reductions in severity. In contrast, peripheral and border LGAs report minimal or no recent cases, suggesting limited outward spread but also possible under-detection. The persistence of moderate transmission in urban hubs, combined with their connectivity to surrounding LGAs, indicates a continued risk of spillover and re-seeding, preventing full interruption of transmission at state level.

Cases, Deaths, AR and CFR by LGA - up to 2026-W16
LGA Cases W16 Deaths W16 Cases W15–W16 Deaths W15–W16 AR/100k W15–W16 CFR% W15–W16 Total Cases Total Deaths CFR (%)
Ungogo 38 0 81 0 12 0 2155 87 4
Dala 33 0 63 0 8.2 0 1130 28 2.5
Nasarawa 22 0 48 1 4.4 2.1 1533 69 4.5
Gwale 26 0 46 0 6.9 0 1008 35 3.5
Fagge 17 0 34 0 9.3 0 629 15 2.4
Kano Municipal 12 0 28 0 4.2 0 469 17 3.6
Kumbotso 15 0 25 0 4.6 0 806 44 5.5
Tarauni 7 0 10 0 2.5 0 364 25 6.9
Gezawa 2 0 3 0 0.6 0 117 7 6
Dawakin Tofa 1 0 2 0 0.4 0 97 10 10.3
Garun Mallam 0 0 2 0 0.9 0 13 1 7.7
Dawakin Kudu 1 0 1 0 0.2 0 61 7 11.5
Out Of Area 1 0 1 0 0 0 62 21 33.9
Gwarzo 0 0 1 0 0.3 0 1 0 0
Katagum 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Tofa 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 2 11.1
Wudil 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 4 19
Bichi 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 7 33.3
Tudun Wada 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 1 11.1
Kabo 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Minjibir 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 9 28.1
Kura 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 5 14.3
Garko 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 33.3
Warawa 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 2 5.3
Albasu 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Kiru 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 25
Tsanyawa 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
Sumaila 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 4 50
Unknown 0 0 0 0 0 0 141 40 28.4
Madobi 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 12.5
Gaya 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 50
Bebeji 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
Dambatta 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 2 16.7
Bunkure 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 5 35.7
Gabasawa 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 5 23.8
Rimin Gado 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 0 0
Bagwai 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 50
Rano 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 33.3
Takai 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
Kibiya 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 50
Makoda 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Ajingi 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Rogo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Shanono 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Doguwa 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 33.3
Karaye 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kunchi 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Garzo 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Dawakun Tofa 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
Bagawai 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
TOTAL 175 0 345 1 2 0.3 8906 461 5.2
Note

The recent trend shows fluctuating but relatively stable transmission, with a peak in week 13 in 2026 followed by a decline and a slight increase in week 16. Overall, cases remain at a moderate level without a clear downward trend. Mortality is low, with very few deaths and a CFR close to zero in recent weeks, including no deaths in the latest week. However, the reproduction number continues to fluctuate around 1, indicating ongoing transmission and a persistent risk of localized increases rather than full control of the outbreak.