Esame Metodi Quantitativi per l’Analisi delle Serie Storiche

library(prophet)

## Caricamento del pacchetto richiesto: Rcpp

## Caricamento del pacchetto richiesto: rlang

library(tidyverse)

## ── Attaching core tidyverse packages ──────────────────────── tidyverse 2.0.0 ──
## ✔ dplyr     1.1.4     ✔ readr     2.1.5
## ✔ forcats   1.0.0     ✔ stringr   1.5.1
## ✔ ggplot2   3.5.2     ✔ tibble    3.3.0
## ✔ lubridate 1.9.4     ✔ tidyr     1.3.1
## ✔ purrr     1.1.0

## ── Conflicts ────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## ✖ purrr::%@%()         masks rlang::%@%()
## ✖ dplyr::filter()      masks stats::filter()
## ✖ purrr::flatten()     masks rlang::flatten()
## ✖ purrr::flatten_chr() masks rlang::flatten_chr()
## ✖ purrr::flatten_dbl() masks rlang::flatten_dbl()
## ✖ purrr::flatten_int() masks rlang::flatten_int()
## ✖ purrr::flatten_lgl() masks rlang::flatten_lgl()
## ✖ purrr::flatten_raw() masks rlang::flatten_raw()
## ✖ purrr::invoke()      masks rlang::invoke()
## ✖ dplyr::lag()         masks stats::lag()
## ✖ purrr::splice()      masks rlang::splice()
## ℹ Use the conflicted package (<http://conflicted.r-lib.org/>) to force all conflicts to become errors

library(readxl)

data<-read_excel("C:/Users/Emanuele/Downloads/EsamePolli.xlsx",sheet=1)

data$ds<-as.Date(data$ds)
data$y<-as.numeric(data$y)

sum(is.na(data$y))

## [1] 0

head(data)

Model<-prophet(data,weekly.seasonality = FALSE,daily.seasonality = FALSE,yearly.seasonality = TRUE)
Future<-make_future_dataframe(Model,periods=60,freq="month")

Forecast<-predict(Model,Future)
tail(Forecast[c('ds','yhat','yhat_lower','yhat_upper')])

dyplot.prophet(Model,Forecast)

## Warning: `select_()` was deprecated in dplyr 0.7.0.
## ℹ Please use `select()` instead.
## ℹ The deprecated feature was likely used in the prophet package.
##   Please report the issue at <https://github.com/facebook/prophet/issues>.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

prophet_plot_components(Model,Forecast)