Franchise Legend
Reference guide for Manager names vs. Team names used in this report.
True North Dynasty 2025 Season Report
Introduction
Hi folks, I thought it would be fun to look at the season that was from different angles. Stuff that you can’t see just from clicking around Sleeper. Draft outcomes, waiver wire winners, schedule luck, and so on. If you find this interesting, I can do it each to see how the story of our dynasty league evolves.
Note that this is not a professional grade product, but I can spruce it up over time. If you notice straight up errors, let me know.
Most analyses are just for the regular season. The playoffs are tricky because of byes and such, but those data are included in some figures that I’ll note as we go.
Enjoy!
Person, Franchise, Team Name Crosswalk
Draft Analysis
Let’s start where the league started: the draft.
The below table shows the total value of each team’s draft. Value is calculated by measuring how many points a player scored above a ‘replacement level’ free agent, adjusted for how scarce their specific position is in our starting lineups. It then compares that advantage to the typical production of a player taken at that specific draft pick to see if you outperformed the expected cost.
Overall, Darren and Derek got the most value from their draft picks. Great value was found at every position and, for several teams, their most valuable picks were running backs. For example, the most valuable picks overall were Jonathan Taylor (3.4) by Dan and CMC (3.7) by Soren. Two running backs who likely fell in our dynasty draft due to injury/longevity concerns, but who paid off big in Year 1.
The worst picks, unsurprisingly, were defined by bad-luck injuries. Every ‘Worst Pick’ underperformed their draft pick because they missed considerable time. So, although the injury bug bit some teams harder than others, it’s Year 1. Burrow, Daniels, Nabers and the rest will be back. And we saw what a healthy Brock Purdy could do once the playoffs started.
Note that these ratings don’t account for if you added, dropped, or traded any of these players. It’s rating how good your draft choices were, not your subsequent roster management.
GM Draft Report Card (Reg. Season)
Grades are determined by summing the 'Value +/-' (VORP above expectation) for every pick made by the franchise through Week 14.
Positional Guru Report
Who drafted which positions the best? The below faceted charts and table break down how efficient we were in filling out each position in our rosters.
Mark had excellent QB picks in Maye at 9.6 and Love at 15.6; with Darren and Derek extracting a lot of talent from less draft capital. Even though Darren spent his first three picks on RBs, he got an incredible amount of value from Bijan, Achane, and Chase Brown. David’s team name was completely apt, as his 3.9 pick of Trey McBride dwarfed other TE values. And Derek’s spread offense approach paid off, buoyed by great WR value from Puka, JSN, and Olave.
Positional Efficiency Leaderboard (Reg. Season)
This table ranks teams by 'Net Value +/-'. This is the total VORP (Value Over Replacement) added above expectation through Week 14.
Team Identity
Positional Reliance
Did your fantasy team prefer ground and pound? Or did you air it out? The below charts present the same data two ways. Note that we are now moving away from ‘who you drafted’ to ‘who actually suited up for you’.
Mark was the most QB-reliant team, leaning on the likes of Burrow, Love, and Dart. Darren built on the strength of those early draft picks to get half his points from RBs. Dan, David, and Ryan leaned on TE play more than most. And Jeff, Derek, and David all were relatively deep at WR.
Positional Reliance Matrix (Reg. Season)
Darker colors indicate a higher dependency on that position group through Week 14.
The “Backpack” Award
Who had the toughest carry jobs this season and post-season?
This award goes to Brock Purdy’s Week 17 performance, hands down. The rest of Nolan’s roster may have been uninterested in a championship, but Brock gave it his best shot, accounting for nearly half of Nolan’s points in the ’ship.
Other notable carryjobs were found on Dan’s team. Laden with outsized performances from Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, and Derrick Henry.
GM Activity
The Hustle Report
The chart below is the yin to the draft board’s yang. Teams that had good draft grades (i.e., solid value while avoiding the injury bug) stayed off the waiver wire more than teams who needed to fill holes post-draft, their hands often forced by injury.
Also, because we’re in Year 1, who knows how transaction activity – and inactivity – might have downstream effects.
Note that these wins are just H2H, regular season.
Acquisition All-Stars
Roster churn paid off big for some. Ryan and Soren’s frequent activity on the waiver wire earned them the most additional points from players the rest neglected.
Mark gained the most value from all acquisitions, carried by pickups of Burrow, Jordan Mason, and Michael Wilson. Soren’s primary boon was Stafford on an MVP campaign. And Steve’s acquisitions of Trevor Lawrence and Drake Maye set him up at QB for the foreseeable future.
Stafford earned the most points of any acquisition. Jordan Mason gave the most points this season of any trade asset, from 11 starts. Wan’Dale Robinson, Trevor Lawrence, Troy Franklin, Kimani Vidal, and Rachaad White also paid dividends off waivers.
Coaching Efficiency
Manager Efficiency (Best Ball)
Who set the best lineups and who left points on the bench?
These margins are very tight, with the top four teams – Darren, Steve, Nolan, and Dan – all within a percentage point.
The “Coulda Woulda Shoulda” Report
This graph includes the playoffs, so it might be a bit noisy.
Below, we see when each of us could have been spared some Ls. For example, in Week 7, Derek started Caleb Williams (4.7 pts) over Herbert (27.9 pts) and squandered a 17.3 point effort by Michael Pittman (back in those halcyon Daniel Jones days). Decisions that lost the week. Such is (fantasy football) life.
The “Bench Warmer” Hall of Fame
Who warmed the pine as a wasted contributor or backup to an even better player?
‘Backup’ QBs dominate the list. Dak stands alone as the capable backup to Mahomes. Bo, Caleb Williams, and Love languished behind other starting QBs as well. There’s a saying: “The most important player on a football team is the starting quarterback. The second most important player is the backup quarterback.”
Luck & Context
Power Rankings & Schedule Luck
They say it’s better to be lucky than good.
The chart below shows our actual records (including median Ws and Ls) and an All-Play record. The All-Play record pits everyone H2H against each other every week. So you could go 9-0 in a given week if you had the highest score in the league. The Luck Index is the difference between your Record win percentage and your all-play win percentage.
In terms of ‘good’, Darren edged Derek, Nolan, and Dan for the most points scored over the course of the regular season.
Nolan and Derek benefited the most from fortunate scheduling, while David and Mark were spurned by lady luck this year.
Note that our league’s use of the median W/L buffers a lot of schedule luck, otherwise the Luck Index would have values even farther from zero.
League Context Matrix
Comparing actual results against underlying performance metrics.
The Schedule Luck Matrix
What would have happened if you played another team’s H2H schedule? The volatility of fantasy football means that your strong weeks and weak weeks can have ideal or disastrous timing.
For example, Mark was dealt the worst possible schedule for him this season. If he had anyone else’s schedule, he would have picked up at least another win or two.
In contrast, despite Darren’s consistently high points output, he would have finished near an appallingly unfair 6-7 if he had Derek’s schedule. Timing matters.
Note that totals won’t always add up to 14 because we play every team once and five teams twice, so you tie against yourself once or twice when simulating a different schedule. I just omitted the ties to make the table cleaner.
For Fun
The Stress Test
In the figure below, the more games you had closer to zero, the more stressful your season was.
Jeff played the most nail-biters, and Soren was most likely to win handily or be dealt major defeat.
The closest match of the year was decided by just .66 fantasy points. In Week 3, Mark narrowly defeated Ryan with a final score of 108.12 to 107.46.
This figure includes playoffs.
