Cohort learning gain, valid under IRT comparability - Prova Brasil. State effects as an Absolute Value

Equation

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{SCORE}_{9\mathrm{TH},\, i+4} - \mathrm{SCORE}_{5\mathrm{TH},\, i} \;=&\; \beta_0 + \sum_{c} \gamma_c \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) + \sum_{s} \lambda_s \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{STATE}_m = s) \\[4pt] &+ \beta_1 \,\mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} + \beta_2 \,\mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_3 \,\mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_4 \,\mathrm{SEXO\_M}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \delta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \theta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \varepsilon_{m,i} \end{aligned}\]

where:

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} = \frac{N^{(9)}_{m,i+4}}{N^{(5)}_{m,i}} \end{aligned}\]

State Value added

The state value-added represents the estimated academic gain for a specific state as if that state had the exact national average for all student and school characteristics.

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{ValueAdded}_{s} = \underbrace{\left( \hat{\alpha} + \sum_{j=1}^{P} \hat{\beta}_j \overline{X}_j \right)}_{\text{GO (Baseline)}} + \hat{\beta}_{s} \end{aligned}\]

Where:

\(\hat{\alpha}\): The Intercept.
\(\sum_{j=1}^{P} \hat{\beta}_j \overline{X}_j\): The sum of ALL coefficients multiplied by their national averages (this includes demographics, school variables, AND the coefficients of all states multiplied by their state proportions).
\(\hat{\beta}_{s}\): The specific coefficient for the state being analyzed (added to the baseline).

Normalization (z-score)

##  normalized covariates (z-score with within-race mean/sd):**
##  GANHO_LEITURA, GANHO_MATEMATICA, NSE_AVG, avg_index_violence, kl_raca, kl_NSE, kl_raca_ses, ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2, afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 
## 
##  covariates kept in raw scale:**
##  SEXO_M, RACA_PRETO, DROP_OUT_RATE, proportion_estadual, NUM_SCHOOLS

Mean and SD by Cohort for All Variables (Normalized)
Variable	2007-2011_mean	2007-2011_sd	2009-2013_mean	2009-2013_sd	2011-2015_mean	2011-2015_sd	2013-2017_mean	2013-2017_sd
GANHO_LEITURA	0.225	1.011	-0.133	0.969	-0.051	0.975	-0.027	1.009
GANHO_MATEMATICA	0.431	1.017	-0.162	0.962	-0.089	0.929	-0.147	0.974
RACA_PRETO	0.085	0.063	0.091	0.062	0.095	0.064	0.100	0.065
NSE_AVG	-0.186	1.005	-0.017	0.977	0.055	0.946	0.130	1.040
SEXO_M	0.444	0.073	0.449	0.068	0.451	0.067	0.461	0.067
NUM_SCHOOLS	5.428	20.658	12.765	32.586	13.736	33.986	19.618	40.088
proportion_estadual	0.564	0.066	0.562	0.063	0.551	0.362	0.535	0.361
avg_index_violence	0.212	0.309	0.248	0.258	-0.984	1.086	0.482	1.130
DROP_OUT_RATE	0.253	0.173	0.230	0.163	0.213	0.151	0.188	0.138
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2	-0.179	0.249	-0.177	0.261	0.181	1.369	0.155	1.330
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5	-0.208	0.196	-0.206	0.207	0.221	1.378	0.170	1.323
kl_raca	0.111	0.305	0.110	0.295	-0.106	1.368	-0.101	1.340
kl_NSE	0.266	0.316	0.266	0.308	-0.178	1.369	-0.314	1.252
kl_raca_ses	0.345	0.334	0.349	0.329	-0.289	1.317	-0.359	1.227

Descriptive Statistics by Socioeconomic Group

Unnormalized Learning Gains (Natural Points)

White TOP SES

Unnormalized Learning Gains - White TOP SES
COHORT	Reading Gain	Math Gain	n
2007-2011	67.04	58.01	2457
2009-2013	58.36	41.50	2854
2011-2015	58.63	40.38	2896
2013-2017	63.08	45.98	3392
NA	NaN	NaN	559
Overall	61.65	46.03	12158

White BOTTOM SES

Unnormalized Learning Gains - White BOTTOM SES
COHORT	Reading Gain	Math Gain	n
2007-2011	67.82	58.03	3014
2009-2013	61.20	46.23	2957
2011-2015	62.78	48.72	2800
2013-2017	66.82	50.25	2829
NA	NaN	NaN	559
Overall	64.67	50.88	12159

Black/Brown TOP SES

Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black/Brown TOP SES
COHORT	Reading Gain	Math Gain	n
2007-2011	62.87	53.62	2403
2009-2013	54.72	38.38	2879
2011-2015	56.51	39.42	2983
2013-2017	61.01	42.79	3367
NA	NaN	NaN	550
Overall	58.68	43.07	12182

Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
COHORT	Reading Gain	Math Gain	n
2007-2011	64.76	55.27	3065
2009-2013	58.77	44.56	2955
2011-2015	61.58	48.19	2744
2013-2017	63.27	46.52	2868
NA	NaN	NaN	550
Overall	62.12	48.72	12182

Black TOP SES

Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black TOP SES
COHORT	Reading Gain	Math Gain	n
2007-2011	66.09	58.22	2346
2009-2013	56.83	43.07	2784
2011-2015	59.64	44.85	2836
2013-2017	63.28	45.69	2997
NA	NaN	NaN	1058
Overall	61.30	47.49	12021

Black BOTTOM SES

Unnormalized Learning Gains - Black BOTTOM SES
COHORT	Reading Gain	Math Gain	n
2007-2011	67.22	57.70	2881
2009-2013	59.74	46.68	2748
2011-2015	63.20	52.51	2576
2013-2017	64.34	49.51	2758
NA	NaN	NaN	1058
Overall	63.68	51.66	12021

5th Grade Initial Scores (Natural Points)

White TOP SES

5th Grade Initial Scores - White TOP SES
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	185.36	205.29	2457
2009-2013	194.21	218.54	2854
2011-2015	201.63	224.43	2896
2013-2017	206.09	225.45	3392
NA	NaN	NaN	559
Overall	197.66	219.22	12158

White BOTTOM SES

5th Grade Initial Scores - White BOTTOM SES
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	162.01	179.85	3014
2009-2013	169.79	189.16	2957
2011-2015	174.65	192.14	2800
2013-2017	176.52	191.15	2829
NA	NaN	NaN	559
Overall	170.58	187.95	12159

Black/Brown TOP SES

5th Grade Initial Scores - Black/Brown TOP SES
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	179.69	198.70	2403
2009-2013	188.31	211.70	2879
2011-2015	193.75	215.68	2983
2013-2017	198.83	218.17	3367
NA	NaN	NaN	550
Overall	190.97	211.91	12182

Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

5th Grade Initial Scores - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	162.92	180.61	3065
2009-2013	169.94	189.57	2955
2011-2015	173.88	191.56	2744
2013-2017	176.92	192.39	2868
NA	NaN	NaN	550
Overall	170.74	188.37	12182

Black TOP SES

5th Grade Initial Scores - Black TOP SES
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	168.69	186.61	2346
2009-2013	177.28	198.98	2784
2011-2015	182.71	203.00	2836
2013-2017	186.70	205.26	2997
NA	NaN	NaN	1058
Overall	179.42	199.09	12021

Black BOTTOM SES

5th Grade Initial Scores - Black BOTTOM SES
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	155.67	173.83	2881
2009-2013	163.90	183.21	2748
2011-2015	167.46	184.51	2576
2013-2017	169.41	184.15	2758
NA	NaN	NaN	1058
Overall	163.96	181.29	12021

White (All SES)

5th Grade Initial Scores - White (All SES)
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	172.50	191.27	5556
2009-2013	181.79	203.59	5907
2011-2015	188.37	208.55	5826
2013-2017	192.65	209.85	6469
Overall	184.12	203.58	23758

Black/Brown (All SES)

5th Grade Initial Scores - Black/Brown (All SES)
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	170.29	188.56	5551
2009-2013	179.00	200.49	5925
2011-2015	184.23	204.12	5850
2013-2017	188.75	206.31	6488
Overall	180.85	200.14	23814

Black (All SES)

5th Grade Initial Scores - Black (All SES)
COHORT	Reading 5th Grade	Math 5th Grade	n
2007-2011	161.51	179.57	5438
2009-2013	170.63	191.15	5776
2011-2015	175.45	194.20	5663
2013-2017	178.41	195.14	6107
Overall	171.69	190.19	22984

Normalized Statistics by Group

White TOP SES

Descriptive Statistics - White TOP SES
Variable	2007-2011	2009-2013	2011-2015	2013-2017	NA	Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL	252.397	252.572	260.260	269.178	NaN	259.310
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL	185.360	194.214	201.625	206.094	NaN	197.663
kl_raca	0.124	0.109	-0.189	-0.137	NaN	-0.034
kl_NSE	0.276	0.271	-0.443	-0.510	NaN	-0.135
kl_raca_ses	0.359	0.356	-0.340	-0.402	NaN	-0.039
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL	263.297	260.039	264.808	271.427	NaN	265.250
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL	205.287	218.542	224.429	225.451	NaN	219.224
NUM_SCHOOLS	7.418	12.020	13.290	20.896	NaN	13.958
proportion_estadual	0.564	0.564	0.698	0.678	NaN	0.631
avg_index_violence	0.226	0.248	-0.854	0.596	NaN	0.070
DROP_OUT_RATE	0.169	0.152	0.147	0.134	NaN	0.149
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2	-0.187	-0.186	-0.375	-0.327	NaN	-0.274
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5	-0.214	-0.213	-0.441	-0.432	NaN	-0.334
GANHO_LEITURA	0.238	-0.256	-0.267	-0.320	NaN	-0.173
GANHO_MATEMATICA	0.486	-0.340	-0.416	-0.411	NaN	-0.205
n	2457.000	2854.000	2896.000	3392.000	559	12158.000

White BOTTOM SES

Descriptive Statistics - White BOTTOM SES
Variable	2007-2011	2009-2013	2011-2015	2013-2017	NA	Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL	229.827	230.992	237.428	243.344	NaN	235.255
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL	162.009	169.793	174.651	176.523	NaN	170.584
kl_raca	0.103	0.105	-0.018	-0.072	NaN	0.032
kl_NSE	0.276	0.274	0.078	-0.131	NaN	0.128
kl_raca_ses	0.353	0.358	-0.246	-0.374	NaN	0.032
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL	237.879	235.394	240.859	241.404	NaN	238.824
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL	179.849	189.164	192.137	191.154	NaN	187.947
NUM_SCHOOLS	3.634	13.200	14.136	13.368	NaN	10.981
proportion_estadual	0.562	0.558	0.406	0.365	NaN	0.475
avg_index_violence	0.221	0.249	-1.159	0.359	NaN	-0.071
DROP_OUT_RATE	0.324	0.305	0.280	0.250	NaN	0.291
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2	-0.173	-0.168	0.751	0.753	NaN	0.277
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5	-0.203	-0.197	0.910	0.909	NaN	0.339
GANHO_LEITURA	0.296	0.020	0.091	0.283	NaN	0.173
GANHO_MATEMATICA	0.504	0.004	0.120	0.178	NaN	0.205
n	3014.000	2957.000	2800.000	2829.000	559	12159.000

Black/Brown TOP SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black/Brown TOP SES
Variable	2007-2011	2009-2013	2011-2015	2013-2017	NA	Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL	242.557	243.031	250.254	259.849	NaN	249.654
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL	179.692	188.306	193.746	198.835	NaN	190.969
kl_raca	0.129	0.111	-0.184	-0.152	NaN	-0.037
kl_NSE	0.275	0.266	-0.436	-0.504	NaN	-0.135
kl_raca_ses	0.356	0.352	-0.338	-0.393	NaN	-0.040
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL	252.315	250.077	255.104	260.959	NaN	254.979
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL	198.699	211.696	215.680	218.172	NaN	211.907
NUM_SCHOOLS	7.716	12.836	13.690	21.025	NaN	14.368
proportion_estadual	0.565	0.565	0.701	0.683	NaN	0.634
avg_index_violence	0.222	0.250	-0.867	0.604	NaN	0.060
DROP_OUT_RATE	0.162	0.148	0.145	0.134	NaN	0.146
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2	-0.186	-0.189	-0.389	-0.350	NaN	-0.286
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5	-0.215	-0.215	-0.460	-0.450	NaN	-0.346
GANHO_LEITURA	0.161	-0.347	-0.250	-0.277	NaN	-0.197
GANHO_MATEMATICA	0.423	-0.411	-0.366	-0.447	NaN	-0.238
n	2403.000	2879.000	2983.000	3367.000	550	12182.000

Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES
Variable	2007-2011	2009-2013	2011-2015	2013-2017	NA	Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL	227.685	228.716	235.457	240.187	NaN	232.863
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL	162.923	169.942	173.875	176.919	NaN	170.740
kl_raca	0.108	0.107	-0.021	-0.065	NaN	0.035
kl_NSE	0.282	0.272	0.085	-0.143	NaN	0.128
kl_raca_ses	0.364	0.354	-0.248	-0.384	NaN	0.033
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL	235.879	234.125	239.751	238.912	NaN	237.094
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL	180.609	189.567	191.556	192.390	NaN	188.372
NUM_SCHOOLS	3.433	13.052	14.530	13.940	NaN	11.085
proportion_estadual	0.560	0.558	0.396	0.362	NaN	0.472
avg_index_violence	0.230	0.246	-1.148	0.352	NaN	-0.061
DROP_OUT_RATE	0.328	0.310	0.285	0.251	NaN	0.294
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2	-0.178	-0.165	0.797	0.771	NaN	0.289
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5	-0.202	-0.196	0.965	0.918	NaN	0.351
GANHO_LEITURA	0.296	0.025	0.193	0.272	NaN	0.197
GANHO_MATEMATICA	0.538	0.044	0.214	0.139	NaN	0.238
n	3065.000	2955.000	2744.000	2868.000	550	12182.000

Black TOP SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black TOP SES
Variable	2007-2011	2009-2013	2011-2015	2013-2017	NA	Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL	234.777	234.109	242.355	249.989	NaN	240.726
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL	168.688	177.278	182.712	186.705	NaN	179.423
kl_raca	0.094	0.105	-0.155	-0.149	NaN	-0.034
kl_NSE	0.228	0.243	-0.298	-0.408	NaN	-0.078
kl_raca_ses	0.305	0.327	-0.224	-0.303	NaN	0.008
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL	244.825	242.052	247.846	250.945	NaN	246.575
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL	186.609	198.983	202.996	205.258	NaN	199.089
NUM_SCHOOLS	8.130	13.464	14.133	19.120	NaN	14.042
proportion_estadual	0.571	0.566	0.667	0.660	NaN	0.619
avg_index_violence	0.180	0.252	-0.807	0.603	NaN	0.059
DROP_OUT_RATE	0.180	0.167	0.164	0.142	NaN	0.162
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2	-0.195	-0.186	-0.277	-0.298	NaN	-0.242
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5	-0.225	-0.212	-0.354	-0.397	NaN	-0.302
GANHO_LEITURA	0.130	-0.201	-0.117	-0.103	NaN	-0.081
GANHO_MATEMATICA	0.305	-0.229	-0.179	-0.262	NaN	-0.111
n	2346.000	2784.000	2836.000	2997.000	1058	12021.000

Black BOTTOM SES

Descriptive Statistics - Black BOTTOM SES
Variable	2007-2011	2009-2013	2011-2015	2013-2017	NA	Overall
LEITURA_9TH_FINAL	222.890	223.640	230.662	233.748	NaN	227.636
LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL	155.672	163.897	167.457	169.406	NaN	163.958
kl_raca	0.104	0.117	-0.031	-0.055	NaN	0.036
kl_NSE	0.250	0.260	0.037	-0.196	NaN	0.091
kl_raca_ses	0.319	0.341	-0.271	-0.405	NaN	0.004
MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL	231.533	229.893	237.022	233.654	NaN	232.945
MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL	173.831	183.210	184.511	184.147	NaN	181.287
NUM_SCHOOLS	3.225	11.375	12.248	10.368	NaN	9.185
proportion_estadual	0.562	0.560	0.414	0.384	NaN	0.482
avg_index_violence	0.183	0.243	-1.119	0.382	NaN	-0.058
DROP_OUT_RATE	0.317	0.299	0.274	0.242	NaN	0.284
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2	-0.162	-0.165	0.695	0.691	NaN	0.253
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5	-0.197	-0.201	0.869	0.849	NaN	0.316
GANHO_LEITURA	0.195	-0.049	0.081	0.093	NaN	0.081
GANHO_MATEMATICA	0.303	-0.052	0.146	0.041	NaN	0.111
n	2881.000	2748.000	2576.000	2758.000	1058	12021.000

Regression and Value-added Results

The dependent variable is the municipal-level cohort learning gain (9th grade score minus 5th grade score), estimated separately for Reading and Math. Six nested models are presented:

Model	Variables
Model 1	Cohort dummies + Demographics: % black students, average municipal SES, % male students, cohort × % black interaction, cohort × SES interaction
Model 2	Model 1 + Teacher quality: % teachers working in a single school, % teachers without university degree + Municipal controls: number of schools, % state-run middle schools, average school violence index, municipal dropout rate
Model 2a	Model 2 + School race segregation index (KL divergence of racial composition across schools)
Model 2b	Model 2 + School social class segregation index (KL divergence of SES distribution across schools)
Model 2c	Model 2 + School race-SES segregation index (KL divergence of joint race-SES distribution across schools)
Model 3	Model 2c + State fixed effects (27 state dummies, reference = GO)

Models 2a, 2b, and 2c differ only in which school segregation measure is added to Model 2. Model 3 uses the combined race-SES segregation index (Model 2c) and adds state fixed effects, which is the specification used to compute state value-added.

White students TOP SES

**Reading - White TOP SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.524^***	-0.479^***	-0.478^***	-0.479^***	-0.479^***	-0.515^***
	(0.066)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.065)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.382^***	-0.239^***	-0.239^***	-0.237^***	-0.233^***	-0.271^***
	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.068)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.528^***	-0.353^***	-0.356^***	-0.351^***	-0.347^***	-0.372^***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.067)

% black students in municipality	2.454^***	1.504^***	1.515^***	1.505^***	1.505^***	1.060^**
	(0.322)	(0.315)	(0.316)	(0.315)	(0.315)	(0.336)

Average municipal SES	-0.065	-0.006	-0.005	-0.006	-0.006	0.066
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.046)

Male students	-0.612^***	-0.041	-0.035	-0.040	-0.039	0.196
	(0.130)	(0.128)	(0.128)	(0.128)	(0.128)	(0.131)

% Teachers working single school		-0.019	-0.020	-0.019	-0.020	-0.026^*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.121^***	0.121^***	0.121^***	0.121^***	0.070^***
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.016)

Number of schools in municipality		0.0004	0.0004	0.0004	0.0004	0.0004
		(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.228^***	-0.221^***	-0.227^***	-0.224^***	-0.185^***
		(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.037)

Average school violence index		0.003	0.004	0.003	0.003	-0.005
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.550^***	1.548^***	1.550^***	1.550^***	1.380^***
		(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.075)

School race segregation index			0.011
			(0.008)

School social class segregation index				0.002
				(0.009)

School race-SES segregation index					0.006	0.005
					(0.008)	(0.008)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-1.423^***	-1.306^**	-1.307^**	-1.306^**	-1.305^**	-1.515^***
	(0.427)	(0.414)	(0.414)	(0.414)	(0.414)	(0.420)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-1.996^***	-2.103^***	-2.046^***	-2.106^***	-2.116^***	-2.251^***
	(0.434)	(0.422)	(0.424)	(0.423)	(0.423)	(0.428)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-1.498^***	-1.336^***	-1.270^**	-1.337^***	-1.345^***	-1.291^**
	(0.415)	(0.404)	(0.407)	(0.405)	(0.405)	(0.414)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	0.159^**	0.126^*	0.125^*	0.126^*	0.126^*	0.165^**
	(0.061)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.061)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	0.029	-0.021	-0.024	-0.022	-0.024	-0.023
	(0.061)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.061)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	0.089	-0.015	-0.016	-0.015	-0.016	-0.039
	(0.053)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.061)

Constant	0.394^***	0.038	0.028	0.036	0.032	0.324^***
	(0.077)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.086)


Observations	11,599	11,599	11,599	11,599	11,599	10,809
R²	0.067	0.125	0.126	0.125	0.125	0.168
Adjusted R²	0.066	0.124	0.124	0.124	0.124	0.165
Residual Std. Error	0.869 (df = 11586)	0.842 (df = 11580)	0.842 (df = 11579)	0.842 (df = 11579)	0.842 (df = 11579)	0.845 (df = 10763)
F Statistic	69.599^*** (df = 12; 11586)	92.251^*** (df = 18; 11580)	87.511^*** (df = 19; 11579)	87.390^*** (df = 19; 11579)	87.416^*** (df = 19; 11579)	48.397^*** (df = 45; 10763)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.301
AL	1.425
AM	-0.198
AP	-0.458
BA	-0.108
CE	0.355
DF	-1.183
ES	-0.558
GO	-0.175
MA	0.409
MG	-0.678
MS	-0.168
MT	-0.366
PA	-0.467
PB	-0.550
PE	0.400
PI	-0.248
PR	-0.715
RJ	-0.742
RN	0.161
RO	-0.100
RR	-0.155
RS	-0.622
SC	-0.652
SE	-0.266
SP	-0.709
TO	-0.009

**Math - White TOP SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.890^***	-0.845^***	-0.844^***	-0.845^***	-0.845^***	-0.885^***
	(0.066)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.065)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.904^***	-0.727^***	-0.726^***	-0.699^***	-0.708^***	-0.787^***
	(0.067)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.909^***	-0.707^***	-0.715^***	-0.683^***	-0.690^***	-0.806^***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.066)

% black students in municipality	1.564^***	0.609	0.638^*	0.618	0.612	0.022
	(0.326)	(0.318)	(0.318)	(0.318)	(0.318)	(0.333)

Average municipal SES	0.041	0.098^*	0.098^*	0.098^*	0.098^*	0.128^**
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.046)

Male students	-1.044^***	-0.453^***	-0.437^***	-0.439^***	-0.449^***	0.076
	(0.131)	(0.129)	(0.129)	(0.129)	(0.129)	(0.130)

% Teachers working single school		-0.022	-0.023^*	-0.023^*	-0.023^*	-0.043^***
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.163^***	0.162^***	0.163^***	0.164^***	0.077^***
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.016)

Number of schools in municipality		0.001^**	0.001^*	0.001^*	0.001^*	0.0004
		(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0002)	(0.0003)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.295^***	-0.276^***	-0.276^***	-0.283^***	-0.221^***
		(0.035)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.037)

Average school violence index		0.011	0.013	0.011	0.011	0.008
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.520^***	1.513^***	1.518^***	1.519^***	1.043^***
		(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.068)	(0.069)	(0.074)

School race segregation index			0.029^***
			(0.008)

School social class segregation index				0.025^**
				(0.009)

School race-SES segregation index					0.016^*	0.007
					(0.008)	(0.008)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.008	0.120	0.118	0.125	0.125	-0.225
	(0.433)	(0.418)	(0.417)	(0.418)	(0.418)	(0.416)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.110	-0.347	-0.200	-0.393	-0.383	-0.686
	(0.439)	(0.426)	(0.428)	(0.426)	(0.426)	(0.424)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-0.547	-0.518	-0.346	-0.535	-0.543	-0.570
	(0.420)	(0.408)	(0.410)	(0.408)	(0.408)	(0.410)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	0.061	0.027	0.026	0.027	0.027	0.075
	(0.062)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.061)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.006	-0.055	-0.061	-0.065	-0.062	-0.022
	(0.061)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.060)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	0.045	-0.064	-0.067	-0.069	-0.068	-0.023
	(0.053)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.061)

Constant	0.829^***	0.513^***	0.490^***	0.489^***	0.498^***	0.735^***
	(0.078)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.086)


Observations	11,599	11,599	11,599	11,599	11,599	10,809
R²	0.155	0.214	0.215	0.214	0.214	0.278
Adjusted R²	0.154	0.212	0.213	0.213	0.213	0.275
Residual Std. Error	0.880 (df = 11586)	0.849 (df = 11580)	0.848 (df = 11579)	0.849 (df = 11579)	0.849 (df = 11579)	0.838 (df = 10763)
F Statistic	177.003^*** (df = 12; 11586)	174.833^*** (df = 18; 11580)	166.510^*** (df = 19; 11579)	166.159^*** (df = 19; 11579)	165.878^*** (df = 19; 11579)	92.121^*** (df = 45; 10763)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.264
AL	1.270
AM	-0.288
AP	-0.411
BA	-0.005
CE	-0.418
DF	-1.036
ES	-0.321
GO	-0.209
MA	0.660
MG	-0.661
MS	-0.220
MT	-0.302
PA	-0.410
PB	-0.501
PE	0.163
PI	0.180
PR	-0.852
RJ	-0.660
RN	-0.078
RO	-0.111
RR	-0.177
RS	-0.543
SC	-0.549
SE	-0.096
SP	-0.969
TO	0.146

White students BOTTOM SES

**Reading - White TBOTTOM SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.497^***	-0.505^***	-0.505^***	-0.504^***	-0.505^***	-0.545^***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.061)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.356^***	-0.306^***	-0.304^***	-0.287^***	-0.294^***	-0.371^***
	(0.063)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.065)	(0.067)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.438^***	-0.362^***	-0.359^***	-0.341^***	-0.350^***	-0.446^***
	(0.063)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.063)	(0.066)

% black students in municipality	-0.332	-0.549^*	-0.535	-0.544^*	-0.547^*	-0.535
	(0.286)	(0.277)	(0.277)	(0.277)	(0.277)	(0.293)

Average municipal SES	0.270^***	0.357^***	0.356^***	0.357^***	0.357^***	0.479^***
	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.031)

Male students	-1.168^***	-0.424^**	-0.419^**	-0.422^**	-0.429^**	-0.389^**
	(0.142)	(0.141)	(0.141)	(0.141)	(0.141)	(0.148)

% Teachers working single school		-0.060^***	-0.059^***	-0.060^***	-0.060^***	-0.073^***
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.007	0.005	0.005	0.006	0.040^***
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)

Number of schools in municipality		0.0003	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002	0.002
		(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.001)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.641^***	-0.627^***	-0.627^***	-0.637^***	-0.434^***
		(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.052)

Average school violence index		-0.011	-0.009	-0.009	-0.010	-0.015
		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.252^***	1.250^***	1.247^***	1.249^***	1.227^***
		(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.072)

School race segregation index			0.039^***
			(0.010)

School social class segregation index				0.027^**
				(0.011)

School race-SES segregation index					0.014	0.013
					(0.011)	(0.012)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.489	0.479	0.483	0.481	0.480	0.612
	(0.419)	(0.406)	(0.406)	(0.406)	(0.406)	(0.410)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.518	-0.755	-0.648	-0.761	-0.755	-0.538
	(0.408)	(0.397)	(0.397)	(0.397)	(0.397)	(0.402)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	1.007^*	0.777^*	0.847^*	0.765^*	0.776^*	1.117^**
	(0.397)	(0.386)	(0.387)	(0.386)	(0.386)	(0.392)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.187^***	-0.206^***	-0.206^***	-0.206^***	-0.206^***	-0.202^***
	(0.042)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.043)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.231^***	-0.162^***	-0.160^***	-0.157^***	-0.161^***	-0.173^***
	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.048)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.382^***	-0.309^***	-0.311^***	-0.306^***	-0.310^***	-0.362^***
	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.049)

Constant	1.072^***	0.804^***	0.789^***	0.788^***	0.799^***	0.972^***
	(0.077)	(0.083)	(0.083)	(0.083)	(0.083)	(0.105)


Observations	11,600	11,600	11,600	11,600	11,600	10,852
R²	0.027	0.087	0.088	0.088	0.087	0.118
Adjusted R²	0.026	0.086	0.087	0.086	0.086	0.114
Residual Std. Error	1.050 (df = 11587)	1.017 (df = 11581)	1.017 (df = 11580)	1.017 (df = 11580)	1.017 (df = 11580)	1.024 (df = 10807)
F Statistic	27.113^*** (df = 12; 11587)	61.470^*** (df = 18; 11581)	59.059^*** (df = 19; 11580)	58.618^*** (df = 19; 11580)	58.316^*** (df = 19; 11580)	32.730^*** (df = 44; 10807)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.030
AL	0.166
AM	-0.156
AP	-0.192
BA	-0.090
CE	0.489
ES	-0.308
GO	0.191
MA	0.091
MG	-0.100
MS	0.126
MT	-0.232
PA	-0.210
PB	-0.032
PE	0.289
PI	0.071
PR	-0.366
RJ	-0.501
RN	0.252
RO	0.074
RR	-0.206
RS	-0.291
SC	-0.363
SE	0.179
SP	-0.457
TO	-0.004

**Math - White TBOTTOM SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.813^***	-0.820^***	-0.820^***	-0.819^***	-0.819^***	-0.869^***
	(0.057)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.056)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.732^***	-0.691^***	-0.688^***	-0.657^***	-0.658^***	-0.763^***
	(0.058)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.062)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.824^***	-0.777^***	-0.773^***	-0.739^***	-0.742^***	-0.874^***
	(0.059)	(0.058)	(0.057)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.061)

% black students in municipality	-0.751^**	-0.920^***	-0.899^***	-0.911^***	-0.914^***	-1.071^***
	(0.265)	(0.257)	(0.257)	(0.257)	(0.257)	(0.270)

Average municipal SES	0.290^***	0.358^***	0.357^***	0.358^***	0.358^***	0.502^***
	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.029)

Male students	-1.032^***	-0.360^**	-0.352^**	-0.355^**	-0.372^**	-0.226
	(0.132)	(0.131)	(0.131)	(0.131)	(0.131)	(0.136)

% Teachers working single school		-0.047^***	-0.047^***	-0.047^***	-0.047^***	-0.052^***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.030^**	0.026^*	0.026^*	0.027^**	0.063^***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)

Number of schools in municipality		0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0002	-0.0002	0.0003
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.001)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.684^***	-0.664^***	-0.658^***	-0.673^***	-0.403^***
		(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.048)

Average school violence index		0.0003	0.002	0.004	0.002	0.001
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)

Average municipal dropout rate		0.977^***	0.974^***	0.969^***	0.969^***	0.861^***
		(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.067)

School race segregation index			0.057^***
			(0.010)

School social class segregation index				0.049^***
				(0.010)

School race-SES segregation index					0.039^***	0.042^***
					(0.011)	(0.011)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.601	0.591	0.595	0.594	0.592	0.694
	(0.388)	(0.377)	(0.376)	(0.376)	(0.376)	(0.378)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	0.371	0.093	0.251	0.083	0.093	0.300
	(0.379)	(0.368)	(0.369)	(0.368)	(0.368)	(0.370)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	0.973^**	0.677	0.780^*	0.656	0.675	0.993^**
	(0.368)	(0.359)	(0.359)	(0.358)	(0.359)	(0.361)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.284^***	-0.300^***	-0.301^***	-0.301^***	-0.302^***	-0.309^***
	(0.039)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.040)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.363^***	-0.265^***	-0.264^***	-0.256^***	-0.265^***	-0.315^***
	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.045)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.481^***	-0.376^***	-0.380^***	-0.370^***	-0.378^***	-0.458^***
	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.046)

Constant	1.280^***	1.138^***	1.116^***	1.110^***	1.126^***	1.245^***
	(0.071)	(0.077)	(0.077)	(0.077)	(0.077)	(0.097)


Observations	11,600	11,600	11,600	11,600	11,600	10,852
R²	0.053	0.111	0.114	0.113	0.112	0.153
Adjusted R²	0.052	0.110	0.112	0.111	0.111	0.150
Residual Std. Error	0.974 (df = 11587)	0.944 (df = 11581)	0.943 (df = 11580)	0.943 (df = 11580)	0.944 (df = 11580)	0.944 (df = 10807)
F Statistic	54.075^*** (df = 12; 11587)	80.277^*** (df = 18; 11581)	78.183^*** (df = 19; 11580)	77.519^*** (df = 19; 11580)	76.863^*** (df = 19; 11580)	44.361^*** (df = 44; 10807)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.196
AL	0.294
AM	-0.331
AP	-0.143
BA	0.024
CE	0.524
ES	-0.055
GO	0.226
MA	0.112
MG	-0.095
MS	0.193
MT	-0.166
PA	-0.093
PB	0.007
PE	0.374
PI	0.332
PR	-0.428
RJ	-0.281
RN	0.358
RO	0.095
RR	0.147
RS	-0.091
SC	-0.180
SE	0.345
SP	-0.652
TO	0.159

Black/Brown students TOP SES

**Reading - Black/Brown TOP SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.306^***	-0.292^***	-0.290^***	-0.292^***	-0.292^***	-0.317^***
	(0.069)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.069)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.118	0.029	0.034	0.051	0.041	-0.038
	(0.071)	(0.070)	(0.070)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.073)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.218^***	-0.054	-0.063	-0.035	-0.043	-0.068
	(0.064)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.071)

% black students in municipality	2.371^***	1.302^***	1.352^***	1.307^***	1.303^***	1.375^***
	(0.394)	(0.385)	(0.384)	(0.385)	(0.385)	(0.407)

Average municipal SES	0.198^***	0.230^***	0.230^***	0.230^***	0.230^***	0.236^***
	(0.044)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.044)

Male students	-0.950^***	-0.277	-0.245	-0.265	-0.274	0.050
	(0.151)	(0.149)	(0.149)	(0.149)	(0.149)	(0.154)

% Teachers working single school		-0.059^***	-0.061^***	-0.060^***	-0.059^***	-0.069^***
		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.014)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.104^***	0.100^***	0.103^***	0.104^***	0.043^*
		(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.019)

Number of schools in municipality		0.001^**	0.001^*	0.001^*	0.001^*	-0.0001
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0004)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.328^***	-0.297^***	-0.313^***	-0.320^***	-0.249^***
		(0.040)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.043)

Average school violence index		0.018	0.021^*	0.018	0.018	0.014
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.925^***	1.911^***	1.924^***	1.925^***	1.593^***
		(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.089)

School race segregation index			0.046^***
			(0.009)

School social class segregation index				0.019
				(0.010)

School race-SES segregation index					0.010	0.004
					(0.009)	(0.010)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-1.672^**	-1.496^**	-1.500^**	-1.491^**	-1.493^**	-1.992^***
	(0.528)	(0.512)	(0.511)	(0.512)	(0.512)	(0.520)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-1.946^***	-2.044^***	-1.843^***	-2.084^***	-2.067^***	-2.436^***
	(0.516)	(0.502)	(0.503)	(0.502)	(0.502)	(0.510)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-1.764^***	-1.714^***	-1.476^**	-1.735^***	-1.731^***	-2.021^***
	(0.502)	(0.489)	(0.491)	(0.489)	(0.489)	(0.502)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.127^*	-0.127^*	-0.128^*	-0.127^*	-0.127^*	-0.091
	(0.058)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.058)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.216^***	-0.245^***	-0.256^***	-0.253^***	-0.250^***	-0.191^**
	(0.059)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.059)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.148^**	-0.225^***	-0.230^***	-0.229^***	-0.227^***	-0.246^***
	(0.050)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.059)

Constant	0.293^***	-0.093	-0.134	-0.113	-0.103	0.186
	(0.087)	(0.090)	(0.090)	(0.091)	(0.091)	(0.097)


Observations	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	10,823
R²	0.042	0.103	0.105	0.104	0.104	0.139
Adjusted R²	0.041	0.102	0.104	0.102	0.102	0.136
Residual Std. Error	1.003 (df = 11619)	0.971 (df = 11613)	0.970 (df = 11612)	0.971 (df = 11612)	0.971 (df = 11612)	0.976 (df = 10778)
F Statistic	42.677^*** (df = 12; 11619)	74.453^*** (df = 18; 11613)	72.050^*** (df = 19; 11612)	70.739^*** (df = 19; 11612)	70.589^*** (df = 19; 11612)	39.552^*** (df = 44; 10778)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.188
AM	-0.296
AP	-0.654
BA	-0.304
CE	-0.417
DF	-1.333
ES	-0.544
GO	-0.210
MA	-0.474
MG	-0.716
MS	-0.258
MT	-0.585
PA	-0.407
PB	-0.357
PE	-0.004
PI	-0.148
PR	-0.865
RJ	-0.720
RN	0.259
RO	-0.259
RR	-0.776
RS	-0.553
SC	-0.575
SE	-0.145
SP	-0.826
TO	-0.413

**Math - Black/Brown TOP SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.832^***	-0.818^***	-0.816^***	-0.818^***	-0.819^***	-0.834^***
	(0.066)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.065)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.605^***	-0.443^***	-0.439^***	-0.415^***	-0.427^***	-0.523^***
	(0.068)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.069)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.754^***	-0.552^***	-0.561^***	-0.527^***	-0.538^***	-0.585^***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.067)

% black students in municipality	1.782^***	0.741^*	0.790^*	0.748^*	0.743^*	0.571
	(0.378)	(0.368)	(0.368)	(0.368)	(0.368)	(0.384)

Average municipal SES	0.174^***	0.200^***	0.200^***	0.201^***	0.201^***	0.209^***
	(0.042)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.042)

Male students	-1.357^***	-0.678^***	-0.647^***	-0.663^***	-0.674^***	-0.133
	(0.145)	(0.142)	(0.142)	(0.142)	(0.142)	(0.145)

% Teachers working single school		-0.026^*	-0.028^*	-0.027^*	-0.027^*	-0.047^***
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.149^***	0.145^***	0.148^***	0.149^***	0.055^**
		(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.018)

Number of schools in municipality		0.001^***	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.001^***	0.0001
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.369^***	-0.338^***	-0.349^***	-0.358^***	-0.283^***
		(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.040)

Average school violence index		0.014	0.017	0.014	0.014	0.014
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.790^***	1.776^***	1.789^***	1.790^***	1.276^***
		(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.084)

School race segregation index			0.045^***
			(0.009)

School social class segregation index				0.024^*
				(0.009)

School race-SES segregation index					0.013	0.0003
					(0.009)	(0.009)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.114	0.024	0.021	0.031	0.029	-0.513
	(0.507)	(0.489)	(0.489)	(0.489)	(0.489)	(0.491)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.911	-1.150^*	-0.955^*	-1.202^*	-1.183^*	-1.659^***
	(0.496)	(0.480)	(0.481)	(0.480)	(0.480)	(0.481)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-1.110^*	-1.277^**	-1.045^*	-1.304^**	-1.300^**	-1.765^***
	(0.482)	(0.467)	(0.469)	(0.467)	(0.468)	(0.474)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.023	-0.022	-0.024	-0.022	-0.022	0.008
	(0.056)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.055)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.175^**	-0.191^***	-0.202^***	-0.201^***	-0.197^***	-0.129^*
	(0.056)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.056)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.079	-0.161^***	-0.166^***	-0.166^***	-0.164^***	-0.187^***
	(0.048)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.056)

Constant	0.805^***	0.476^***	0.436^***	0.451^***	0.463^***	0.709^***
	(0.084)	(0.086)	(0.086)	(0.087)	(0.087)	(0.092)


Observations	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	10,823
R²	0.123	0.186	0.188	0.186	0.186	0.244
Adjusted R²	0.122	0.185	0.186	0.185	0.185	0.240
Residual Std. Error	0.963 (df = 11619)	0.928 (df = 11613)	0.927 (df = 11612)	0.928 (df = 11612)	0.928 (df = 11612)	0.921 (df = 10778)
F Statistic	136.143^*** (df = 12; 11619)	147.190^*** (df = 18; 11613)	141.169^*** (df = 19; 11612)	139.854^*** (df = 19; 11612)	139.574^*** (df = 19; 11612)	78.872^*** (df = 44; 10778)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.189
AM	-0.551
AP	-0.661
BA	-0.191
CE	-0.499
DF	-1.234
ES	-0.387
GO	-0.251
MA	-0.212
MG	-0.744
MS	-0.347
MT	-0.484
PA	-0.463
PB	-0.513
PE	-0.033
PI	-0.252
PR	-0.980
RJ	-0.681
RN	0.203
RO	-0.223
RR	-0.372
RS	-0.567
SC	-0.549
SE	0.145
SP	-1.045
TO	-0.201

Black/Brown students BOTTOM SES

**Reading - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.534^***	-0.553^***	-0.553^***	-0.552^***	-0.552^***	-0.610^***
	(0.057)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.057)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.367^***	-0.346^***	-0.344^***	-0.331^***	-0.344^***	-0.457^***
	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.062)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.507^***	-0.429^***	-0.428^***	-0.413^***	-0.427^***	-0.569^***
	(0.058)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.060)

% black students in municipality	-0.498^*	-0.723^**	-0.717^**	-0.721^**	-0.723^**	-1.002^***
	(0.246)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.249)

Average municipal SES	0.215^***	0.306^***	0.306^***	0.306^***	0.306^***	0.438^***
	(0.028)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.027)	(0.031)

Male students	-0.926^***	-0.235	-0.237	-0.233	-0.236	-0.155
	(0.124)	(0.122)	(0.121)	(0.122)	(0.122)	(0.127)

% Teachers working single school		-0.039^***	-0.039^***	-0.039^***	-0.039^***	-0.054^***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)

% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.005	-0.007	-0.006	-0.005	0.036^***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)

Number of schools in municipality		0.001	0.0005	0.0005	0.001	0.001
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.001)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.649^***	-0.640^***	-0.640^***	-0.648^***	-0.452^***
		(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.040)	(0.039)	(0.046)

Average school violence index		-0.021	-0.020	-0.019	-0.021	-0.024^*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.258^***	1.258^***	1.256^***	1.258^***	1.228^***
		(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.062)

School race segregation index			0.028^**
			(0.009)

School social class segregation index				0.019^*
				(0.009)

School race-SES segregation index					0.002	0.007
					(0.010)	(0.010)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.009	0.009	0.015	0.010	0.009	0.178
	(0.355)	(0.341)	(0.341)	(0.341)	(0.341)	(0.344)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.214	-0.358	-0.272	-0.362	-0.358	-0.125
	(0.357)	(0.344)	(0.345)	(0.344)	(0.344)	(0.347)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	1.114^**	1.018^**	1.087^***	1.014^**	1.018^**	1.320^***
	(0.341)	(0.330)	(0.330)	(0.330)	(0.330)	(0.333)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.292^***	-0.316^***	-0.317^***	-0.316^***	-0.316^***	-0.310^***
	(0.042)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.044)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.334^***	-0.242^***	-0.239^***	-0.236^***	-0.242^***	-0.275^***
	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.051)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.440^***	-0.331^***	-0.332^***	-0.327^***	-0.331^***	-0.424^***
	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.049)

Constant	0.943^***	0.706^***	0.698^***	0.694^***	0.705^***	0.849^***
	(0.069)	(0.073)	(0.073)	(0.073)	(0.073)	(0.097)


Observations	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	10,841
R²	0.029	0.105	0.106	0.105	0.105	0.145
Adjusted R²	0.028	0.104	0.104	0.104	0.104	0.141
Residual Std. Error	0.921 (df = 11619)	0.884 (df = 11613)	0.884 (df = 11612)	0.884 (df = 11612)	0.884 (df = 11612)	0.889 (df = 10796)
F Statistic	29.220^*** (df = 12; 11619)	75.789^*** (df = 18; 11613)	72.396^*** (df = 19; 11612)	72.055^*** (df = 19; 11612)	71.797^*** (df = 19; 11612)	41.602^*** (df = 44; 10796)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.175
AL	0.285
AM	-0.178
AP	-0.207
BA	0.054
CE	0.506
ES	-0.084
GO	0.210
MA	0.090
MG	0.043
MS	-0.206
MT	-0.127
PA	-0.205
PB	-0.011
PE	0.350
PI	0.200
PR	-0.472
RJ	-0.275
RN	0.382
RO	0.301
RR	-0.289
RS	0.084
SC	-0.387
SE	0.242
SP	-0.434
TO	0.162

**Math - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.845^***	-0.862^***	-0.862^***	-0.861^***	-0.861^***	-0.943^***
	(0.054)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.054)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.728^***	-0.697^***	-0.694^***	-0.668^***	-0.678^***	-0.831^***
	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.059)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.983^***	-0.914^***	-0.913^***	-0.884^***	-0.895^***	-1.082^***
	(0.056)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.055)	(0.057)

% black students in municipality	-0.811^***	-1.008^***	-0.999^***	-1.003^***	-1.005^***	-1.385^***
	(0.236)	(0.227)	(0.227)	(0.227)	(0.227)	(0.237)

Average municipal SES	0.238^***	0.318^***	0.318^***	0.318^***	0.318^***	0.481^***
	(0.027)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.029)

Male students	-0.810^***	-0.150	-0.152	-0.145	-0.155	-0.006
	(0.118)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.121)

% Teachers working single school		-0.043^***	-0.042^***	-0.043^***	-0.043^***	-0.049^***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.015	0.013	0.012	0.014	0.060^***
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)

Number of schools in municipality		0.0002	0.0001	0.00002	0.0001	-0.0002
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.001)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.634^***	-0.623^***	-0.617^***	-0.629^***	-0.374^***
		(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.043)

Average school violence index		-0.008	-0.006	-0.005	-0.007	-0.005
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.116^***	1.115^***	1.111^***	1.112^***	0.999^***
		(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.052)	(0.059)

School race segregation index			0.039^***
			(0.008)

School social class segregation index				0.036^***
				(0.009)

School race-SES segregation index					0.020^*	0.028^**
					(0.009)	(0.010)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.416	0.417	0.425	0.418	0.417	0.601
	(0.340)	(0.327)	(0.327)	(0.327)	(0.327)	(0.326)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	0.505	0.314	0.432	0.307	0.313	0.554
	(0.342)	(0.330)	(0.330)	(0.329)	(0.329)	(0.330)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	1.250^***	1.083^***	1.177^***	1.075^***	1.082^***	1.396^***
	(0.327)	(0.316)	(0.316)	(0.316)	(0.316)	(0.317)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.349^***	-0.372^***	-0.374^***	-0.374^***	-0.374^***	-0.388^***
	(0.041)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.042)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.416^***	-0.317^***	-0.313^***	-0.306^***	-0.316^***	-0.390^***
	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.048)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.549^***	-0.432^***	-0.433^***	-0.425^***	-0.433^***	-0.540^***
	(0.043)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.047)

Constant	1.187^***	0.990^***	0.979^***	0.969^***	0.983^***	1.092^***
	(0.066)	(0.070)	(0.070)	(0.070)	(0.070)	(0.092)


Observations	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	11,632	10,841
R²	0.065	0.136	0.137	0.137	0.136	0.190
Adjusted R²	0.064	0.135	0.136	0.136	0.135	0.187
Residual Std. Error	0.882 (df = 11619)	0.848 (df = 11613)	0.847 (df = 11612)	0.847 (df = 11612)	0.847 (df = 11612)	0.844 (df = 10796)
F Statistic	67.232^*** (df = 12; 11619)	101.441^*** (df = 18; 11613)	97.362^*** (df = 19; 11612)	97.121^*** (df = 19; 11612)	96.376^*** (df = 19; 11612)	57.723^*** (df = 44; 10796)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.409
AL	0.466
AM	-0.261
AP	-0.113
BA	0.167
CE	0.608
ES	0.076
GO	0.256
MA	0.127
MG	0.045
MS	0.071
MT	0.040
PA	-0.099
PB	0.089
PE	0.450
PI	0.436
PR	-0.468
RJ	0.027
RN	0.465
RO	0.322
RR	-0.132
RS	0.267
SC	-0.228
SE	0.457
SP	-0.593
TO	0.335

Black students TOP SES

**Reading - Black TOP SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.165^*	-0.154^*	-0.154^*	-0.154^*	-0.154^*	-0.170^*
	(0.069)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.070)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.006	0.038	0.038	0.045	0.050	0.020
	(0.070)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.073)

Cohort 2013-2017	0.004	0.095	0.089	0.102	0.108	0.025
	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.072)

% black students in municipality	1.465^***	0.911^*	0.927^*	0.914^*	0.916^*	0.738
	(0.392)	(0.390)	(0.390)	(0.390)	(0.390)	(0.417)

Average municipal SES	0.082^*	0.118^**	0.120^**	0.118^**	0.119^**	0.161^***
	(0.039)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.038)	(0.040)

Male students	-0.936^***	-0.368^*	-0.346^*	-0.359^*	-0.360^*	-0.038
	(0.161)	(0.163)	(0.163)	(0.163)	(0.163)	(0.172)

% Teachers working single school		-0.034^*	-0.034^*	-0.034^*	-0.035^**	-0.055^***
		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.015)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.089^***	0.087^***	0.088^***	0.090^***	0.073^***
		(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.019)

Number of schools in municipality		-0.00001	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	0.0001
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0004)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.159^***	-0.136^**	-0.151^***	-0.147^***	-0.125^**
		(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.045)

Average school violence index		-0.003	-0.0003	-0.002	-0.002	-0.007
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.162^***	1.162^***	1.163^***	1.166^***	0.930^***
		(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.094)

School race segregation index			0.034^***
			(0.010)

School social class segregation index				0.010
				(0.010)

School race-SES segregation index					0.017	0.021^*
					(0.010)	(0.010)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-1.325^*	-1.218^*	-1.217^*	-1.215^*	-1.214^*	-1.348^*
	(0.533)	(0.526)	(0.525)	(0.526)	(0.526)	(0.540)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-1.372^**	-1.364^**	-1.243^*	-1.372^**	-1.388^**	-1.440^**
	(0.522)	(0.517)	(0.518)	(0.517)	(0.517)	(0.531)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-2.355^***	-2.286^***	-2.155^***	-2.288^***	-2.300^***	-2.121^***
	(0.510)	(0.506)	(0.507)	(0.506)	(0.506)	(0.522)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.086	-0.090	-0.090	-0.090	-0.090	-0.084
	(0.051)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.052)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.174^***	-0.174^***	-0.177^***	-0.175^***	-0.177^***	-0.167^**
	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.053)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.048	-0.079	-0.081	-0.080	-0.082	-0.014
	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.053)

Constant	0.390^***	0.038	0.009	0.026	0.020	0.179
	(0.090)	(0.096)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.107)


Observations	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,303
R²	0.019	0.046	0.047	0.046	0.047	0.064
Adjusted R²	0.018	0.045	0.046	0.045	0.045	0.060
Residual Std. Error	1.016 (df = 10950)	1.002 (df = 10944)	1.002 (df = 10943)	1.002 (df = 10943)	1.002 (df = 10943)	1.021 (df = 10257)
F Statistic	17.891^*** (df = 12; 10950)	29.509^*** (df = 18; 10944)	28.611^*** (df = 19; 10943)	28.008^*** (df = 19; 10943)	28.109^*** (df = 19; 10943)	15.611^*** (df = 45; 10257)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.064
AL	-0.176
AM	-0.259
AP	-0.372
BA	-0.283
CE	0.038
DF	-0.851
ES	-0.216
GO	-0.080
MA	-0.078
MG	-0.367
MS	-0.109
MT	-0.339
PA	-0.322
PB	-0.100
PE	-0.089
PI	-0.154
PR	-0.500
RJ	-0.511
RN	0.071
RO	-0.059
RR	-0.244
RS	-0.410
SC	-0.437
SE	-0.328
SP	-0.523
TO	-0.142

**Math - Black TOP SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.520^***	-0.509^***	-0.509^***	-0.510^***	-0.510^***	-0.535^***
	(0.068)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.068)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.321^***	-0.243^***	-0.243^***	-0.226^**	-0.224^**	-0.259^***
	(0.068)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.072)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.446^***	-0.353^***	-0.359^***	-0.335^***	-0.333^***	-0.433^***
	(0.066)	(0.065)	(0.065)	(0.066)	(0.066)	(0.070)

% black students in municipality	0.697	0.092	0.110	0.100	0.100	-0.188
	(0.384)	(0.381)	(0.380)	(0.381)	(0.381)	(0.406)

Average municipal SES	0.062	0.102^**	0.104^**	0.103^**	0.104^**	0.146^***
	(0.038)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.039)

Male students	-1.071^***	-0.440^**	-0.415^**	-0.420^**	-0.429^**	0.019
	(0.158)	(0.159)	(0.159)	(0.159)	(0.159)	(0.167)

% Teachers working single school		-0.020	-0.021	-0.022	-0.022	-0.040^**
		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.014)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.093^***	0.091^***	0.092^***	0.094^***	0.055^**
		(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.017)	(0.019)

Number of schools in municipality		-0.00003	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	0.00000
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0004)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.199^***	-0.173^***	-0.180^***	-0.181^***	-0.158^***
		(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.044)

Average school violence index		0.020	0.022^*	0.021	0.020	0.016
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)

Average municipal dropout rate		1.250^***	1.249^***	1.253^***	1.255^***	0.939^***
		(0.079)	(0.079)	(0.079)	(0.079)	(0.091)

School race segregation index			0.039^***
			(0.010)

School social class segregation index				0.025^*
				(0.010)

School race-SES segregation index					0.025^*	0.024^*
					(0.010)	(0.010)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.001	0.131	0.132	0.139	0.136	0.020
	(0.522)	(0.513)	(0.513)	(0.513)	(0.513)	(0.525)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.698	-0.728	-0.590	-0.746	-0.763	-0.848
	(0.512)	(0.505)	(0.506)	(0.505)	(0.505)	(0.517)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-1.375^**	-1.331^**	-1.182^*	-1.335^**	-1.352^**	-1.206^*
	(0.500)	(0.494)	(0.495)	(0.494)	(0.494)	(0.508)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.028	-0.034	-0.034	-0.033	-0.034	-0.018
	(0.050)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.051)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.139^**	-0.141^**	-0.144^**	-0.144^**	-0.145^**	-0.133^*
	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.050)	(0.052)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.002	-0.033	-0.035	-0.036	-0.037	0.032
	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.051)

Constant	0.701^***	0.328^***	0.295^**	0.300^**	0.302^**	0.441^***
	(0.089)	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.104)


Observations	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,303
R²	0.052	0.085	0.086	0.085	0.085	0.110
Adjusted R²	0.051	0.083	0.085	0.084	0.084	0.106
Residual Std. Error	0.996 (df = 10950)	0.979 (df = 10944)	0.978 (df = 10943)	0.979 (df = 10943)	0.979 (df = 10943)	0.994 (df = 10257)
F Statistic	50.282^*** (df = 12; 10950)	56.332^*** (df = 18; 10944)	54.292^*** (df = 19; 10943)	53.715^*** (df = 19; 10943)	53.743^*** (df = 19; 10943)	28.132^*** (df = 45; 10257)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.014
AL	-0.335
AM	-0.314
AP	-0.318
BA	-0.218
CE	0.055
DF	-0.848
ES	-0.240
GO	-0.107
MA	0.072
MG	-0.438
MS	-0.168
MT	-0.257
PA	-0.396
PB	-0.153
PE	-0.001
PI	-0.065
PR	-0.543
RJ	-0.527
RN	-0.017
RO	-0.017
RR	-0.064
RS	-0.427
SC	-0.419
SE	-0.037
SP	-0.654
TO	-0.150

Black students BOTTOM SES

**Reading - Black BOTTOM SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.304^***	-0.297^***	-0.298^***	-0.298^***	-0.297^***	-0.312^***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.061)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.212^***	-0.169^**	-0.168^**	-0.158^*	-0.171^**	-0.201^**
	(0.062)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.066)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.306^***	-0.267^***	-0.268^***	-0.254^***	-0.269^***	-0.295^***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.064)

% black students in municipality	-0.150	-0.322	-0.318	-0.318	-0.322	-0.417
	(0.268)	(0.264)	(0.264)	(0.264)	(0.264)	(0.279)

Average municipal SES	0.070^*	0.107^***	0.107^***	0.107^***	0.107^***	0.132^***
	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.030)

Male students	-0.633^***	-0.029	-0.026	-0.024	-0.029	-0.007
	(0.132)	(0.134)	(0.134)	(0.134)	(0.134)	(0.142)

% Teachers working single school		-0.011	-0.011	-0.012	-0.011	-0.021^*
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)

% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.006	-0.006	-0.008	-0.006	0.013
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)

Number of schools in municipality		-0.0004	-0.0004	-0.0005	-0.0003	0.004
		(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.002)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.422^***	-0.416^***	-0.408^***	-0.422^***	-0.343^***
		(0.040)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.047)

Average school violence index		0.016	0.017	0.018	0.016	0.020
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)

Average municipal dropout rate		0.806^***	0.804^***	0.799^***	0.807^***	0.818^***
		(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.070)

School race segregation index			0.013
			(0.009)

School social class segregation index				0.019
				(0.010)

School race-SES segregation index					-0.002	-0.007
					(0.011)	(0.011)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.073	0.014	0.013	0.013	0.014	0.030
	(0.384)	(0.378)	(0.378)	(0.378)	(0.378)	(0.383)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.059	-0.187	-0.153	-0.187	-0.188	-0.123
	(0.386)	(0.381)	(0.382)	(0.381)	(0.381)	(0.387)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	0.899^*	0.734^*	0.764^*	0.729^*	0.734^*	0.749^*
	(0.368)	(0.364)	(0.364)	(0.364)	(0.364)	(0.370)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.062	-0.073	-0.073	-0.074	-0.072	-0.069
	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.046)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.131^**	-0.098^*	-0.098^*	-0.097^*	-0.097^*	-0.120^*
	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.049)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.142^**	-0.097^*	-0.099^*	-0.098^*	-0.097^*	-0.113^*
	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.050)

Constant	0.543^***	0.312^***	0.306^***	0.299^***	0.313^***	0.418^***
	(0.073)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.102)


Observations	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,391
R²	0.012	0.045	0.045	0.045	0.045	0.060
Adjusted R²	0.011	0.043	0.043	0.044	0.043	0.056
Residual Std. Error	0.962 (df = 10950)	0.946 (df = 10944)	0.946 (df = 10943)	0.946 (df = 10943)	0.946 (df = 10943)	0.957 (df = 10346)
F Statistic	11.353^*** (df = 12; 10950)	28.583^*** (df = 18; 10944)	27.174^*** (df = 19; 10943)	27.274^*** (df = 19; 10943)	27.080^*** (df = 19; 10943)	14.924^*** (df = 44; 10346)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.142
AL	-0.038
AM	-0.338
AP	-0.255
BA	-0.102
CE	0.213
ES	0.055
GO	0.092
MA	-0.034
MG	-0.017
MS	0.114
MT	-0.285
PA	-0.164
PB	-0.142
PE	0.067
PI	-0.034
PR	-0.241
RJ	-0.071
RN	0.050
RO	0.070
RR	-0.112
RS	-0.268
SC	-0.304
SE	0.008
SP	-0.235
TO	0.145

**Math - Black BOTTOM SES**

	Dependent variable:

	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2a	Model 2b	Model 2c	Model 3

Cohort 2009-2013	-0.495^***	-0.486^***	-0.487^***	-0.487^***	-0.487^***	-0.500^***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.060)

Cohort 2011-2015	-0.286^***	-0.243^***	-0.242^***	-0.226^***	-0.226^***	-0.267^***
	(0.061)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.064)

Cohort 2013-2017	-0.552^***	-0.523^***	-0.524^***	-0.504^***	-0.507^***	-0.562^***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.062)

% black students in municipality	-0.827^**	-1.006^***	-1.002^***	-1.000^***	-1.002^***	-1.198^***
	(0.265)	(0.260)	(0.260)	(0.260)	(0.260)	(0.273)

Average municipal SES	0.123^***	0.163^***	0.163^***	0.163^***	0.163^***	0.220^***
	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.030)

Male students	-0.905^***	-0.230	-0.227	-0.223	-0.234	-0.061
	(0.131)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.139)

% Teachers working single school		-0.007	-0.007	-0.008	-0.007	-0.016
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)

% Teachers w/o university degree		0.015	0.015	0.013	0.014	0.042^***
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)

Number of schools in municipality		-0.001	-0.001^*	-0.001^*	-0.001^*	0.002
		(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.0004)	(0.002)

% Middle schools state-run		-0.416^***	-0.408^***	-0.395^***	-0.407^***	-0.248^***
		(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.040)	(0.046)

Average school violence index		0.025^*	0.026^*	0.027^*	0.026^*	0.030^*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)

Average municipal dropout rate		0.868^***	0.866^***	0.858^***	0.859^***	0.764^***
		(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.069)

School race segregation index			0.016
			(0.009)

School social class segregation index				0.028^**
				(0.010)

School race-SES segregation index					0.022^*	0.020
					(0.010)	(0.011)

Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.594	0.533	0.533	0.532	0.532	0.555
	(0.380)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.375)

Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	0.149	-0.031	0.011	-0.031	-0.025	0.061
	(0.382)	(0.375)	(0.376)	(0.375)	(0.375)	(0.379)

Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	1.131^**	0.903^*	0.940^**	0.895^*	0.910^*	0.931^*
	(0.364)	(0.358)	(0.359)	(0.358)	(0.358)	(0.362)

Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.095^*	-0.108^*	-0.109^*	-0.111^**	-0.111^**	-0.098^*
	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.045)

Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.143^**	-0.104^*	-0.105^*	-0.104^*	-0.107^*	-0.126^**
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.048)

Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.230^***	-0.181^***	-0.183^***	-0.182^***	-0.185^***	-0.217^***
	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.049)

Constant	0.881^***	0.604^***	0.597^***	0.585^***	0.596^***	0.585^***
	(0.072)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.079)	(0.078)	(0.099)


Observations	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,963	10,391
R²	0.027	0.067	0.067	0.067	0.067	0.093
Adjusted R²	0.026	0.065	0.065	0.066	0.065	0.089
Residual Std. Error	0.952 (df = 10950)	0.932 (df = 10944)	0.932 (df = 10943)	0.932 (df = 10943)	0.932 (df = 10943)	0.936 (df = 10346)
F Statistic	25.417^*** (df = 12; 10950)	43.377^*** (df = 18; 10944)	41.248^*** (df = 19; 10943)	41.542^*** (df = 19; 10943)	41.339^*** (df = 19; 10943)	24.111^*** (df = 44; 10346)

Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.191
AL	0.216
AM	-0.358
AP	-0.143
BA	0.035
CE	0.400
ES	0.116
GO	0.127
MA	0.018
MG	0.038
MS	0.039
MT	-0.189
PA	-0.095
PB	0.075
PE	0.214
PI	0.221
PR	-0.209
RJ	0.177
RN	0.213
RO	0.204
RR	-0.172
RS	-0.173
SC	-0.212
SE	0.239
SP	-0.418
TO	0.338

Municipality and State Analysis

White students TOP SES

## Warning: `aes_string()` was deprecated in ggplot2 3.0.0.
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## ℹ See also `vignette("ggplot2-in-packages")` for more information.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,809 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2009-2… RO 1 Alta… 174. 242. 2 1100015 2011-2… RO 1 Alta… 188. 248. 3 1100015 2013-2… RO 1 Alta… 206. 277. 4 1100023 2007-2… RO 2 Ariq… 169. 243. 5 1100023 2009-2… RO 2 Ariq… 179. 254. 6 1100023 2011-2… RO 2 Ariq… 181. 258. 7 1100023 2013-2… RO 2 Ariq… 190. 266. 8 1100031 2007-2… RO 3 Cabi… 158. 235. 9 1100031 2009-2… RO 3 Cabi… 179. 249. 10 1100031 2011-2… RO 3 Cabi… 198. 234. # ℹ 10,799 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

White students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,852 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2007-2… RO 1 Alta… 173. 220. 2 1100049 2009-2… RO 4 Caco… 176. 243. 3 1100049 2011-2… RO 4 Caco… 196. 254. 4 1100056 2011-2… RO 5 Cere… 204. 258. 5 1100072 2007-2… RO 7 Coru… 177. 244. 6 1100072 2011-2… RO 7 Coru… 173. 256. 7 1100072 2013-2… RO 7 Coru… 185. 254. 8 1100080 2007-2… RO 8 Cost… 149. 233. 9 1100080 2009-2… RO 8 Cost… 157. 225. 10 1100098 2007-2… RO 9 Espi… 173. 249. # ℹ 10,842 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black/Brown students TOP SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,823 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2011-2… RO 1 Alta… 167. 244. 2 1100015 2013-2… RO 1 Alta… 211. 253. 3 1100023 2007-2… RO 2 Ariq… 170. 236. 4 1100023 2009-2… RO 2 Ariq… 180. 246. 5 1100023 2011-2… RO 2 Ariq… 185. 261. 6 1100023 2013-2… RO 2 Ariq… 194. 264. 7 1100031 2007-2… RO 3 Cabi… 169. 239. 8 1100031 2009-2… RO 3 Cabi… 176. 241. 9 1100031 2011-2… RO 3 Cabi… 188. 250. 10 1100031 2013-2… RO 3 Cabi… 208. 265. # ℹ 10,813 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black/Brown students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,841 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2007-2… RO 1 Alta… 168. 219. 2 1100015 2009-2… RO 1 Alta… 179. 234. 3 1100072 2007-2… RO 7 Coru… 176. 250. 4 1100072 2011-2… RO 7 Coru… 171. 254. 5 1100072 2013-2… RO 7 Coru… 186. 249. 6 1100080 2007-2… RO 8 Cost… 152. 232. 7 1100080 2009-2… RO 8 Cost… 167. 219. 8 1100098 2007-2… RO 9 Espi… 179. 244. 9 1100130 2007-2… RO 13 Mach… 171. 234. 10 1100130 2009-2… RO 13 Mach… 176. 238. # ℹ 10,831 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black students TOP SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,303 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2007-2… RO 1 Alta… 156. 228. 2 1100015 2009-2… RO 1 Alta… 161. 225. 3 1100015 2011-2… RO 1 Alta… 138. 229. 4 1100023 2007-2… RO 2 Ariq… 158. 228. 5 1100023 2009-2… RO 2 Ariq… 175. 233. 6 1100023 2011-2… RO 2 Ariq… 174. 254. 7 1100023 2013-2… RO 2 Ariq… 177. 253. 8 1100031 2009-2… RO 3 Cabi… 149. 237. 9 1100031 2011-2… RO 3 Cabi… 173. 234. 10 1100031 2013-2… RO 3 Cabi… 215. 239. # ℹ 10,293 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …

Black students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

# A tibble: 10,391 × 25 COD_MUNICIPIO COHORT Uf Id Nome LEITURA_5TH_INICIAL LEITURA_9TH_FINAL 1 1100015 2013-2… RO 1 Alta… 184. 235. 2 1100031 2007-2… RO 3 Cabi… 151. 228. 3 1100056 2009-2… RO 5 Cere… 173. 226. 4 1100056 2011-2… RO 5 Cere… 196. 231. 5 1100064 2007-2… RO 6 Colo… 166. 227. 6 1100072 2009-2… RO 7 Coru… 159. 241. 7 1100072 2011-2… RO 7 Coru… 106. 242. 8 1100080 2009-2… RO 8 Cost… 168. 213. 9 1100080 2013-2… RO 8 Cost… 183. 292. 10 1100098 2007-2… RO 9 Espi… 171. 233. # ℹ 10,381 more rows # ℹ 18 more variables: MATEMATICA_5TH_INICIAL , # MATEMATICA_9TH_FINAL , GANHO_LEITURA , GANHO_MATEMATICA , # NSE_AVG , RACA_PRETO , SEXO_M , DROP_OUT_RATE , # NUM_SCHOOLS , proportion_estadual , avg_index_violence , # ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2 , afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 , # kl_raca , kl_NSE , kl_raca_ses , leitura_gain , …