Cohort learning gain, valid under IRT comparability - Prova Brasil. State effects as an Absolute Value

Equation

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{SCORE}_{9\mathrm{TH},\, i+4} - \mathrm{SCORE}_{5\mathrm{TH},\, i} \;=&\; \beta_0 + \sum_{c} \gamma_c \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) + \sum_{s} \lambda_s \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{STATE}_m = s) \\[4pt] &+ \beta_1 \,\mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} + \beta_2 \,\mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_3 \,\mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_4 \,\mathrm{SEXO\_M}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \delta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \theta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \varepsilon_{m,i} \end{aligned}\]

where:

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} = \frac{N^{(9)}_{m,i+4}}{N^{(5)}_{m,i}} \end{aligned}\]

State Value added

The state value-added represents the estimated academic gain for a specific state as if that state had the exact national average for all student and school characteristics.

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{ValueAdded}_{s} = \underbrace{\left( \hat{\alpha} + \sum_{j=1}^{P} \hat{\beta}_j \overline{X}_j \right)}_{\text{GO (Baseline)}} + \hat{\beta}_{s} \end{aligned}\]

Where:

• \(\hat{\alpha}\): The Intercept.
• \(\sum_{j=1}^{P} \hat{\beta}_j \overline{X}_j\): The sum of ALL coefficients multiplied by their national averages (this includes demographics, school variables, AND the coefficients of all states multiplied by their state proportions).
• \(\hat{\beta}_{s}\): The specific coefficient for the state being analyzed (added to the baseline).

Normalization (z-score)

##  normalized covariates (z-score with gloabl average/sd):**
##  GANHO_LEITURA, GANHO_MATEMATICA, NSE_AVG, avg_index_violence, kl_raca, kl_NSE, kl_raca_ses, ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2, afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 
## 
##  covariates kept in raw scale:**
##  SEXO_M, RACA_PRETO, DROP_OUT_RATE, proportion_estadual, NUM_SCHOOLS

Regression and Value-added Results

White students TOP SES

Reading - White TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.405***	-0.376***	-0.375***	-0.375***	-0.375***	-0.409***
	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.055)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.213***	-0.175**	-0.175**	-0.174**	-0.174**	-0.239***
	(0.058)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.056)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.338***	-0.280***	-0.284***	-0.283***	-0.282***	-0.340***
	(0.058)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.056)
% black students in municipality	1.458***	0.830**	0.880**	0.795**	0.804**	0.897**
	(0.284)	(0.279)	(0.282)	(0.280)	(0.280)	(0.286)
Average municipal SES	-0.059	-0.052	-0.054	-0.060	-0.057	-0.006
	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
Male students	-1.096***	-0.643***	-0.637***	-0.633***	-0.638***	-0.593***
	(0.106)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.104)
% Teachers working single school		-0.016	-0.017	-0.018	-0.017	-0.007
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
% Teachers w/o university degree		0.134***	0.133***	0.133***	0.134***	0.070***
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.016)
Number of schools in municipality		0.001*	0.001*	0.001*	0.001*	0.0004
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.174***	-0.170***	-0.168***	-0.171***	-0.153***
		(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.023)
Average school violence index		-0.023**	-0.022**	-0.022**	-0.023**	-0.033***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate		1.051***	1.046***	1.050***	1.051***	1.020***
		(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.064)
School race segregation index			0.010
			(0.007)
School social class segregation index				0.015*
				(0.007)
School race-SES segregation index					0.008	-0.002
					(0.007)	(0.007)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-1.146**	-1.011**	-1.019**	-1.008**	-1.009**	-0.941**
	(0.383)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.365)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-1.560***	-1.307***	-1.313***	-1.289***	-1.297***	-1.137**
	(0.365)	(0.355)	(0.355)	(0.356)	(0.356)	(0.349)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-1.483***	-1.200***	-1.193***	-1.171**	-1.183**	-0.988**
	(0.369)	(0.359)	(0.360)	(0.360)	(0.360)	(0.353)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	0.080	0.081	0.080	0.082	0.082	0.107*
	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.042)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.082	-0.098*	-0.098*	-0.097*	-0.097*	-0.052
	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.043)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.031	-0.046	-0.045	-0.045	-0.045	-0.006
	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.043)
Constant	0.667***	0.488***	0.482***	0.490***	0.489***	0.721***
	(0.065)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.071)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002
R2	0.078	0.127	0.127	0.127	0.127	0.166
Adjusted R2	0.077	0.125	0.125	0.125	0.125	0.163
Residual Std. Error	0.736 (df = 10989)	0.716 (df = 10983)	0.716 (df = 10982)	0.716 (df = 10982)	0.716 (df = 10982)	0.700 (df = 10957)
F Statistic	77.104*** (df = 12; 10989)	88.421*** (df = 18; 10983)	83.874*** (df = 19; 10982)	83.999*** (df = 19; 10982)	83.849*** (df = 19; 10982)	49.644*** (df = 44; 10957)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.101
AM	-0.101
AP	-0.254
BA	-0.217
CE	0.343
DF	-0.920
ES	-0.522
GO	-0.141
MA	-0.036
MG	-0.616
MS	-0.110
MT	-0.321
PA	-0.273
PB	-0.338
PE	0.252
PI	1.366
PR	-0.512
RJ	-0.667
RN	0.013
RO	-0.028
RR	-0.005
RS	-0.482
SC	-0.494
SE	-0.554
SP	-0.544
TO	0.139

---

Math - White TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.823***	-0.809***	-0.808***	-0.808***	-0.809***	-0.841***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.057)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.616***	-0.593***	-0.595***	-0.592***	-0.592***	-0.695***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.058)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.693***	-0.643***	-0.655***	-0.648***	-0.645***	-0.776***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.058)
% black students in municipality	0.869**	0.130	0.286	0.065	0.092	-0.052
	(0.301)	(0.293)	(0.296)	(0.294)	(0.294)	(0.297)
Average municipal SES	0.015	0.019	0.011	0.003	0.012	0.030
	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)
Male students	-0.704***	-0.151	-0.134	-0.132	-0.145	0.071
	(0.113)	(0.110)	(0.110)	(0.111)	(0.111)	(0.108)
% Teachers working single school		0.023*	0.021*	0.020	0.022*	0.012
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
% Teachers w/o university degree		0.196***	0.194***	0.195***	0.196***	0.070***
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.017)
Number of schools in municipality		0.001*	0.0004	0.0004	0.0005	0.0004
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.236***	-0.224***	-0.224***	-0.231***	-0.193***
		(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.024)
Average school violence index		-0.017*	-0.015	-0.016*	-0.017*	-0.016*
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate		1.139***	1.122***	1.136***	1.139***	0.849***
		(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.066)
School race segregation index			0.030***
			(0.007)
School social class segregation index				0.028***
				(0.008)
School race-SES segregation index					0.012	-0.008
					(0.007)	(0.007)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.171	0.313	0.287	0.319	0.316	0.243
	(0.407)	(0.392)	(0.391)	(0.391)	(0.391)	(0.378)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.753	-0.504	-0.522	-0.470	-0.489	-0.308
	(0.387)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.361)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-0.898*	-0.635	-0.615	-0.582	-0.611	-0.266
	(0.392)	(0.378)	(0.377)	(0.378)	(0.378)	(0.366)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	0.072	0.080	0.078	0.082	0.081	0.101*
	(0.047)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.044)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.132**	-0.141**	-0.141**	-0.140**	-0.141**	-0.068
	(0.048)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.045)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.069	-0.075	-0.072	-0.073	-0.073	0.005
	(0.048)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.045)
Constant	0.655***	0.523***	0.504***	0.526***	0.524***	0.740***
	(0.069)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.074)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002
R2	0.160	0.223	0.224	0.224	0.223	0.278
Adjusted R2	0.159	0.221	0.222	0.222	0.221	0.275
Residual Std. Error	0.781 (df = 10989)	0.752 (df = 10983)	0.752 (df = 10982)	0.752 (df = 10982)	0.752 (df = 10982)	0.726 (df = 10957)
F Statistic	174.816*** (df = 12; 10989)	174.745*** (df = 18; 10983)	166.651*** (df = 19; 10982)	166.372*** (df = 19; 10982)	165.722*** (df = 19; 10982)	95.679*** (df = 44; 10957)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.104
AM	-0.494
AP	-0.286
BA	-0.170
CE	0.087
DF	-0.862
ES	-0.352
GO	-0.214
MA	-0.144
MG	-0.659
MS	-0.174
MT	-0.338
PA	-0.348
PB	-0.054
PE	0.121
PI	1.759
PR	-0.690
RJ	-0.631
RN	0.049
RO	-0.133
RR	0.045
RS	-0.483
SC	-0.457
SE	-0.416
SP	-0.849
TO	0.144

---

White students BOTTOM SES

Reading - White TBOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.364***	-0.379***	-0.379***	-0.379***	-0.379***	-0.414***
	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.324***	-0.320***	-0.320***	-0.319***	-0.319***	-0.359***
	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.064)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.389***	-0.359***	-0.358***	-0.359***	-0.359***	-0.410***
	(0.065)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.065)
% black students in municipality	-0.229	-0.395	-0.409	-0.395	-0.394	-0.278
	(0.242)	(0.237)	(0.238)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.248)
Average municipal SES	0.224***	0.341***	0.340***	0.349***	0.342***	0.424***
	(0.029)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.031)
Male students	-1.307***	-0.663***	-0.661***	-0.667***	-0.668***	-0.787***
	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.134)
% Teachers working single school		-0.022*	-0.022*	-0.022*	-0.022*	-0.034**
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.056***	-0.056***	-0.057***	-0.057***	-0.036**
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
Number of schools in municipality		0.004**	0.004**	0.003**	0.004**	0.0004
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.332***	-0.333***	-0.330***	-0.331***	-0.177***
		(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.042)
Average school violence index		-0.021	-0.021	-0.020	-0.020	-0.024*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
Average municipal dropout rate		1.070***	1.070***	1.069***	1.070***	1.114***
		(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.066)
School race segregation index			-0.006
			(0.010)
School social class segregation index				0.018
				(0.010)
School race-SES segregation index					0.009	0.015
					(0.010)	(0.010)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.145	-0.074	-0.070	-0.073	-0.074	0.049
	(0.343)	(0.335)	(0.335)	(0.335)	(0.335)	(0.333)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.386	-0.329	-0.325	-0.332	-0.334	-0.215
	(0.333)	(0.325)	(0.325)	(0.325)	(0.325)	(0.324)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	0.674*	0.719*	0.723*	0.715*	0.718*	0.866**
	(0.332)	(0.324)	(0.324)	(0.324)	(0.324)	(0.323)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.186***	-0.188***	-0.187***	-0.188***	-0.188***	-0.196***
	(0.045)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.044)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.251***	-0.229***	-0.228***	-0.228***	-0.228***	-0.238***
	(0.048)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.048)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.385***	-0.358***	-0.358***	-0.358***	-0.357***	-0.387***
	(0.049)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)
Constant	1.100***	0.740***	0.739***	0.749***	0.744***	0.975***
	(0.075)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.102)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	10,949
R2	0.025	0.071	0.072	0.072	0.072	0.093
Adjusted R2	0.024	0.070	0.070	0.070	0.070	0.089
Residual Std. Error	0.956 (df = 10989)	0.934 (df = 10983)	0.934 (df = 10982)	0.934 (df = 10982)	0.934 (df = 10982)	0.926 (df = 10904)
F Statistic	23.962*** (df = 12; 10989)	46.966*** (df = 18; 10983)	44.510*** (df = 19; 10982)	44.676*** (df = 19; 10982)	44.538*** (df = 19; 10982)	25.331*** (df = 44; 10904)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.074
AL	0.139
AM	-0.067
AP	-0.265
BA	-0.055
CE	0.405
ES	-0.223
GO	0.197
MA	0.147
MG	-0.103
MS	-0.003
MT	-0.126
PA	-0.136
PB	-0.073
PE	0.223
PI	0.045
PR	-0.355
RJ	-0.432
RN	0.158
RO	0.003
RR	-0.004
RS	-0.189
SC	-0.430
SE	0.076
SP	-0.278
TO	0.018

---

Math - White TBOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.661***	-0.686***	-0.686***	-0.686***	-0.686***	-0.739***
	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.059)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.683***	-0.695***	-0.695***	-0.693***	-0.691***	-0.758***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.061)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.798***	-0.784***	-0.785***	-0.784***	-0.785***	-0.858***
	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.063)
% black students in municipality	-0.450	-0.627**	-0.607**	-0.626**	-0.623**	-0.750**
	(0.233)	(0.228)	(0.229)	(0.228)	(0.228)	(0.238)
Average municipal SES	0.218***	0.350***	0.351***	0.361***	0.353***	0.453***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.030)
Male students	-0.462***	0.133	0.130	0.127	0.120	0.049
	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.128)
% Teachers working single school		-0.020*	-0.020*	-0.021*	-0.021*	-0.019
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)
% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.046***	-0.046***	-0.047***	-0.048***	-0.022*
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
Number of schools in municipality		0.003*	0.003*	0.002	0.002	-0.0003
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.405***	-0.404***	-0.402***	-0.403***	-0.223***
		(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.040)
Average school violence index		-0.020	-0.020	-0.019	-0.019	-0.023*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
Average municipal dropout rate		0.884***	0.883***	0.883***	0.885***	0.873***
		(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.063)
School race segregation index			0.008
			(0.009)
School social class segregation index				0.025**
				(0.009)
School race-SES segregation index					0.025*	0.033***
					(0.010)	(0.010)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.185	0.265	0.260	0.266	0.264	0.435
	(0.330)	(0.322)	(0.323)	(0.322)	(0.322)	(0.319)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	0.207	0.267	0.260	0.263	0.253	0.438
	(0.320)	(0.313)	(0.313)	(0.313)	(0.313)	(0.310)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	0.687*	0.719*	0.714*	0.712*	0.715*	0.891**
	(0.319)	(0.312)	(0.312)	(0.312)	(0.312)	(0.310)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.249***	-0.251***	-0.251***	-0.251***	-0.252***	-0.270***
	(0.043)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.402***	-0.378***	-0.378***	-0.378***	-0.376***	-0.401***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.046)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.527***	-0.496***	-0.496***	-0.496***	-0.495***	-0.539***
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
Constant	0.906***	0.676***	0.677***	0.688***	0.687***	0.933***
	(0.072)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.098)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	10,949
R2	0.042	0.087	0.087	0.087	0.087	0.116
Adjusted R2	0.041	0.085	0.085	0.086	0.086	0.112
Residual Std. Error	0.920 (df = 10989)	0.898 (df = 10983)	0.898 (df = 10982)	0.898 (df = 10982)	0.898 (df = 10982)	0.887 (df = 10904)
F Statistic	40.178*** (df = 12; 10989)	58.089*** (df = 18; 10983)	55.074*** (df = 19; 10982)	55.411*** (df = 19; 10982)	55.395*** (df = 19; 10982)	32.498*** (df = 44; 10904)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.147
AL	0.164
AM	-0.282
AP	-0.262
BA	-0.011
CE	0.344
ES	-0.111
GO	0.200
MA	0.062
MG	-0.149
MS	0.055
MT	-0.109
PA	-0.107
PB	-0.105
PE	0.239
PI	0.210
PR	-0.406
RJ	-0.338
RN	0.183
RO	0.024
RR	0.138
RS	-0.117
SC	-0.361
SE	0.198
SP	-0.526
TO	0.155

---

Black/Brown students TOP SES

Reading - Black/Brown TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.299***	-0.262***	-0.260***	-0.262***	-0.262***	-0.282***
	(0.062)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.060)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.090	-0.039	-0.042	-0.038	-0.038	-0.090
	(0.063)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.202**	-0.129*	-0.144*	-0.133*	-0.131*	-0.189**
	(0.064)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.062)
% black students in municipality	1.051***	0.293	0.477	0.245	0.255	0.178
	(0.313)	(0.307)	(0.309)	(0.307)	(0.307)	(0.316)
Average municipal SES	0.016	0.025	0.016	0.013	0.018	0.035
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.036)
Male students	-1.437***	-0.868***	-0.846***	-0.854***	-0.861***	-0.788***
	(0.116)	(0.115)	(0.115)	(0.115)	(0.115)	(0.115)
% Teachers working single school		0.004	0.002	0.002	0.003	0.010
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
% Teachers w/o university degree		0.109***	0.107***	0.109***	0.109***	0.025
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.018)
Number of schools in municipality		0.0003	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002	0.0001
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.208***	-0.193***	-0.199***	-0.203***	-0.164***
		(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.026)
Average school violence index		-0.029***	-0.026**	-0.028***	-0.029***	-0.033***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate		1.320***	1.299***	1.318***	1.320***	1.205***
		(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.070)
School race segregation index			0.036***
			(0.008)
School social class segregation index				0.021*
				(0.008)
School race-SES segregation index					0.012	0.003
					(0.008)	(0.008)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-1.561***	-1.400***	-1.431***	-1.395***	-1.397***	-1.387***
	(0.421)	(0.408)	(0.408)	(0.408)	(0.408)	(0.403)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-2.061***	-1.778***	-1.796***	-1.755***	-1.764***	-1.616***
	(0.401)	(0.390)	(0.389)	(0.390)	(0.390)	(0.385)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-1.471***	-1.146**	-1.122**	-1.106**	-1.121**	-0.914*
	(0.406)	(0.394)	(0.394)	(0.395)	(0.395)	(0.390)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	0.047	0.049	0.046	0.051	0.050	0.065
	(0.048)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.046)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.054	-0.075	-0.074	-0.074	-0.074	-0.038
	(0.049)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.047)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.046	-0.065	-0.062	-0.063	-0.063	-0.029
	(0.050)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)
Constant	0.614***	0.361***	0.339***	0.364***	0.363***	0.632***
	(0.071)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.079)
Observations	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995
R2	0.051	0.109	0.111	0.110	0.109	0.137
Adjusted R2	0.050	0.108	0.109	0.108	0.108	0.133
Residual Std. Error	0.809 (df = 10982)	0.784 (df = 10976)	0.783 (df = 10975)	0.784 (df = 10975)	0.784 (df = 10975)	0.773 (df = 10950)
F Statistic	48.958*** (df = 12; 10982)	74.721*** (df = 18; 10976)	72.084*** (df = 19; 10975)	71.164*** (df = 19; 10975)	70.938*** (df = 19; 10975)	39.370*** (df = 44; 10950)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.405
AM	-0.381
AP	-0.627
BA	-0.303
CE	-0.627
DF	-1.096
ES	-0.619
GO	-0.259
MA	-0.264
MG	-0.714
MS	-0.327
MT	-0.542
PA	-0.521
PB	-0.540
PE	-0.035
PI	-0.069
PR	-0.725
RJ	-0.681
RN	-0.069
RO	-0.303
RR	-0.678
RS	-0.581
SC	-0.546
SE	-0.467
SP	-0.732
TO	-0.313

---

Math - Black/Brown TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.686***	-0.670***	-0.668***	-0.669***	-0.669***	-0.692***
	(0.063)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.060)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.453***	-0.420***	-0.423***	-0.419***	-0.419***	-0.502***
	(0.065)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.062)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.543***	-0.484***	-0.501***	-0.490***	-0.488***	-0.598***
	(0.065)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.062)
% black students in municipality	0.928**	0.064	0.271	-0.004	0.006	-0.211
	(0.320)	(0.310)	(0.312)	(0.310)	(0.311)	(0.316)
Average municipal SES	0.050	0.055	0.044	0.037	0.044	0.039
	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.036)
Male students	-0.975***	-0.324**	-0.300**	-0.304**	-0.314**	-0.136
	(0.119)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.115)
% Teachers working single school		0.039***	0.036**	0.036**	0.037**	0.029*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
% Teachers w/o university degree		0.163***	0.161***	0.162***	0.163***	0.034
		(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.018)
Number of schools in municipality		0.0003	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.272***	-0.256***	-0.260***	-0.264***	-0.216***
		(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.026)
Average school violence index		-0.018*	-0.016	-0.018*	-0.018*	-0.017*
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate		1.378***	1.355***	1.374***	1.377***	1.103***
		(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.070)
School race segregation index			0.040***
			(0.008)
School social class segregation index				0.029***
				(0.008)
School race-SES segregation index					0.019*	0.002
					(0.008)	(0.008)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.600	-0.436	-0.470	-0.429	-0.431	-0.504
	(0.430)	(0.412)	(0.412)	(0.412)	(0.412)	(0.402)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-1.412***	-1.135**	-1.155**	-1.102**	-1.112**	-0.943*
	(0.410)	(0.394)	(0.393)	(0.394)	(0.394)	(0.384)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-1.273**	-0.972*	-0.945*	-0.915*	-0.934*	-0.604
	(0.415)	(0.399)	(0.398)	(0.399)	(0.399)	(0.389)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	0.070	0.079	0.076	0.082	0.080	0.095*
	(0.049)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.046)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.091	-0.105*	-0.104*	-0.103*	-0.103*	-0.043
	(0.051)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.047)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.120*	-0.129**	-0.126**	-0.127**	-0.127**	-0.063
	(0.051)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.048)
Constant	0.583***	0.391***	0.366***	0.395***	0.393***	0.646***
	(0.072)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.079)
Observations	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995
R2	0.120	0.192	0.194	0.193	0.192	0.236
Adjusted R2	0.119	0.191	0.193	0.191	0.191	0.233
Residual Std. Error	0.827 (df = 10982)	0.793 (df = 10976)	0.792 (df = 10975)	0.792 (df = 10975)	0.792 (df = 10975)	0.772 (df = 10950)
F Statistic	124.745*** (df = 12; 10982)	144.857*** (df = 18; 10976)	139.001*** (df = 19; 10975)	138.051*** (df = 19; 10975)	137.622*** (df = 19; 10975)	76.852*** (df = 44; 10950)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.399
AM	-0.624
AP	-0.654
BA	-0.270
CE	-0.705
DF	-1.039
ES	-0.499
GO	-0.308
MA	-0.311
MG	-0.749
MS	-0.380
MT	-0.482
PA	-0.570
PB	-0.564
PE	-0.041
PI	0.247
PR	-0.828
RJ	-0.686
RN	-0.152
RO	-0.281
RR	-0.503
RS	-0.571
SC	-0.516
SE	0.154
SP	-0.933
TO	-0.204

---

Black/Brown students BOTTOM SES

Reading - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.319***	-0.318***	-0.318***	-0.318***	-0.318***	-0.358***
	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.284***	-0.268***	-0.268***	-0.269***	-0.271***	-0.322***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.386***	-0.342***	-0.343***	-0.342***	-0.342***	-0.404***
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
% black students in municipality	-0.510**	-0.658***	-0.646***	-0.658***	-0.661***	-0.693***
	(0.174)	(0.168)	(0.168)	(0.168)	(0.168)	(0.174)
Average municipal SES	0.163***	0.286***	0.287***	0.284***	0.284***	0.362***
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.022)
Male students	-1.429***	-0.840***	-0.842***	-0.839***	-0.831***	-0.877***
	(0.095)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.094)
% Teachers working single school		-0.012	-0.012	-0.011	-0.011	-0.020**
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.047***	-0.047***	-0.046***	-0.045***	-0.018*
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.008)
Number of schools in municipality		0.002*	0.002	0.002*	0.002**	0.0004
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.340***	-0.339***	-0.340***	-0.341***	-0.207***
		(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.029)
Average school violence index		-0.038***	-0.037***	-0.038***	-0.039***	-0.042***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate		0.934***	0.933***	0.934***	0.933***	0.935***
		(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.046)
School race segregation index			0.005
			(0.007)
School social class segregation index				-0.005
				(0.007)
School race-SES segregation index					-0.019**	-0.013
					(0.007)	(0.007)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.315	-0.207	-0.211	-0.207	-0.205	-0.080
	(0.246)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.234)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.055	0.024	0.020	0.025	0.034	0.171
	(0.239)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.227)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	0.795***	0.844***	0.841***	0.846***	0.847***	1.001***
	(0.238)	(0.229)	(0.229)	(0.229)	(0.229)	(0.227)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.193***	-0.190***	-0.190***	-0.190***	-0.189***	-0.200***
	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.278***	-0.253***	-0.253***	-0.253***	-0.254***	-0.271***
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.033)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.378***	-0.348***	-0.348***	-0.348***	-0.349***	-0.386***
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)
Constant	0.984***	0.684***	0.685***	0.682***	0.676***	0.798***
	(0.054)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.072)
Observations	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,947
R2	0.048	0.121	0.121	0.121	0.121	0.154
Adjusted R2	0.047	0.119	0.119	0.119	0.120	0.151
Residual Std. Error	0.688 (df = 10983)	0.661 (df = 10977)	0.662 (df = 10976)	0.662 (df = 10976)	0.661 (df = 10976)	0.651 (df = 10902)
F Statistic	45.774*** (df = 12; 10983)	83.690*** (df = 18; 10977)	79.311*** (df = 19; 10976)	79.309*** (df = 19; 10976)	79.684*** (df = 19; 10976)	45.223*** (df = 44; 10902)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.138
AL	0.153
AM	-0.114
AP	-0.163
BA	-0.033
CE	0.296
ES	-0.167
GO	0.081
MA	0.046
MG	-0.097
MS	-0.117
MT	-0.187
PA	-0.188
PB	-0.082
PE	0.184
PI	0.056
PR	-0.348
RJ	-0.406
RN	0.197
RO	0.161
RR	-0.192
RS	-0.177
SC	-0.562
SE	0.088
SP	-0.320
TO	0.039

---

Math - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.613***	-0.632***	-0.633***	-0.632***	-0.632***	-0.683***
	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.636***	-0.642***	-0.642***	-0.642***	-0.644***	-0.708***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.846***	-0.821***	-0.822***	-0.821***	-0.821***	-0.894***
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
% black students in municipality	-0.799***	-0.968***	-0.952***	-0.967***	-0.970***	-1.183***
	(0.177)	(0.170)	(0.171)	(0.170)	(0.170)	(0.176)
Average municipal SES	0.183***	0.320***	0.321***	0.322***	0.319***	0.417***
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.022)
Male students	-0.420***	0.186	0.184	0.185	0.191*	0.196*
	(0.096)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.095)
% Teachers working single school		-0.016*	-0.016*	-0.016*	-0.015*	-0.013
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.044***	-0.044***	-0.044***	-0.043***	-0.013
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.008)
Number of schools in municipality		0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	-0.0004
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.409***	-0.408***	-0.408***	-0.410***	-0.230***
		(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.029)
Average school violence index		-0.025**	-0.025**	-0.025**	-0.026**	-0.030***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
Average municipal dropout rate		0.891***	0.890***	0.891***	0.891***	0.861***
		(0.043)	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.046)
School race segregation index			0.007
			(0.007)
School social class segregation index				0.004
				(0.007)
School race-SES segregation index					-0.011	-0.002
					(0.007)	(0.007)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	0.034	0.134	0.129	0.134	0.135	0.288
	(0.251)	(0.241)	(0.241)	(0.241)	(0.241)	(0.236)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	0.461	0.527*	0.521*	0.526*	0.533*	0.695**
	(0.243)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.229)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	1.015***	1.036***	1.032***	1.035***	1.038***	1.198***
	(0.242)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.229)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.270***	-0.267***	-0.268***	-0.267***	-0.267***	-0.282***
	(0.033)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.403***	-0.377***	-0.377***	-0.377***	-0.378***	-0.402***
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.497***	-0.464***	-0.464***	-0.464***	-0.465***	-0.510***
	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)
Constant	0.783***	0.552***	0.553***	0.554***	0.547***	0.637***
	(0.055)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.073)
Observations	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,947
R2	0.067	0.142	0.142	0.142	0.142	0.186
Adjusted R2	0.066	0.141	0.141	0.141	0.141	0.183
Residual Std. Error	0.700 (df = 10983)	0.672 (df = 10977)	0.672 (df = 10976)	0.672 (df = 10976)	0.672 (df = 10976)	0.656 (df = 10902)
F Statistic	65.492*** (df = 12; 10983)	101.131*** (df = 18; 10977)	95.856*** (df = 19; 10976)	95.823*** (df = 19; 10976)	95.932*** (df = 19; 10976)	56.723*** (df = 44; 10902)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.295
AL	0.272
AM	-0.242
AP	-0.123
BA	0.075
CE	0.342
ES	-0.099
GO	0.110
MA	0.037
MG	-0.099
MS	-0.066
MT	-0.113
PA	-0.135
PB	-0.018
PE	0.263
PI	0.227
PR	-0.337
RJ	-0.125
RN	0.257
RO	0.187
RR	0.003
RS	-0.004
SC	-0.304
SE	0.262
SP	-0.523
TO	0.172

---

Black students TOP SES

Reading - Black TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.367***	-0.363***	-0.363***	-0.361***	-0.361***	-0.391***
	(0.102)	(0.103)	(0.103)	(0.103)	(0.103)	(0.102)
Cohort 2011-2015	0.124	0.140	0.140	0.143	0.143	0.078
	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.032	0.017	0.018	0.014	0.014	-0.055
	(0.106)	(0.106)	(0.107)	(0.106)	(0.106)	(0.106)
% black students in municipality	0.975	0.251	0.249	0.221	0.216	-0.106
	(0.535)	(0.536)	(0.536)	(0.536)	(0.536)	(0.558)
Average municipal SES	0.041	0.059	0.059	0.045	0.047	0.138*
	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.060)
Male students	-1.461***	-0.952***	-0.953***	-0.929***	-0.937***	-0.822***
	(0.200)	(0.202)	(0.202)	(0.202)	(0.202)	(0.204)
% Teachers working single school		-0.004	-0.004	-0.007	-0.006	-0.007
		(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.021)
% Teachers w/o university degree		0.080**	0.080**	0.079**	0.080**	0.024
		(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.030)
Number of schools in municipality		0.0003	0.0003	0.0002	0.0002	0.0001
		(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.143***	-0.144***	-0.131**	-0.134**	-0.112*
		(0.040)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.044)
Average school violence index		-0.015	-0.015	-0.014	-0.014	-0.023
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
Average municipal dropout rate		1.345***	1.345***	1.347***	1.349***	1.298***
		(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.124)
School race segregation index			-0.001
			(0.013)
School social class segregation index				0.027
				(0.014)
School race-SES segregation index					0.021	0.014
					(0.013)	(0.013)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.874	-0.651	-0.651	-0.651	-0.653	-0.608
	(0.715)	(0.709)	(0.709)	(0.709)	(0.709)	(0.706)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-2.528***	-2.166**	-2.166**	-2.148**	-2.154**	-1.930**
	(0.686)	(0.682)	(0.682)	(0.682)	(0.682)	(0.679)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-2.430***	-2.042**	-2.044**	-2.008**	-2.015**	-1.781**
	(0.693)	(0.688)	(0.688)	(0.688)	(0.688)	(0.686)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	0.030	0.041	0.041	0.043	0.042	0.062
	(0.079)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.212**	-0.227**	-0.227**	-0.226**	-0.226**	-0.191*
	(0.081)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.037	-0.060	-0.060	-0.057	-0.056	-0.013
	(0.082)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)
Constant	0.750***	0.454***	0.454***	0.448***	0.449***	0.756***
	(0.121)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.136)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777
R2	0.021	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.053
Adjusted R2	0.020	0.037	0.037	0.038	0.038	0.049
Residual Std. Error	1.321 (df = 10764)	1.309 (df = 10758)	1.309 (df = 10757)	1.309 (df = 10757)	1.309 (df = 10757)	1.301 (df = 10732)
F Statistic	19.031*** (df = 12; 10764)	24.280*** (df = 18; 10758)	23.000*** (df = 19; 10757)	23.205*** (df = 19; 10757)	23.151*** (df = 19; 10757)	13.566*** (df = 44; 10732)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.115
AM	-0.367
AP	-0.394
BA	-0.227
CE	-0.331
DF	-1.060
ES	-0.329
GO	-0.096
MA	-0.371
MG	-0.585
MS	-0.206
MT	-0.472
PA	-0.212
PB	-0.668
PE	-0.072
PI	1.035
PR	-0.619
RJ	-0.639
RN	-0.049
RO	-0.185
RR	-0.428
RS	-0.605
SC	-0.582
SE	-0.559
SP	-0.629
TO	-0.002

---

Math - Black TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.527***	-0.547***	-0.547***	-0.544***	-0.544***	-0.574***
	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.096)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.045	-0.043	-0.044	-0.040	-0.039	-0.131
	(0.100)	(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.099)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.309**	-0.274**	-0.281**	-0.278**	-0.279**	-0.383***
	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)
% black students in municipality	1.355**	0.545	0.572	0.503	0.491	0.205
	(0.507)	(0.505)	(0.506)	(0.505)	(0.505)	(0.525)
Average municipal SES	0.131*	0.147**	0.143**	0.127*	0.128*	0.195***
	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.056)
Male students	-1.157***	-0.570**	-0.557**	-0.539**	-0.546**	-0.385*
	(0.190)	(0.191)	(0.191)	(0.191)	(0.191)	(0.192)
% Teachers working single school		0.041*	0.040*	0.036*	0.036*	0.048*
		(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.020)
% Teachers w/o university degree		0.106***	0.105***	0.104***	0.105***	-0.002
		(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.028)
Number of schools in municipality		0.0003	0.0002	0.0001	0.0001	-0.0001
		(0.0004)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.210***	-0.203***	-0.194***	-0.195***	-0.184***
		(0.038)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.041)
Average school violence index		-0.003	-0.002	-0.002	-0.003	-0.011
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
Average municipal dropout rate		1.377***	1.376***	1.380***	1.384***	1.256***
		(0.109)	(0.109)	(0.109)	(0.109)	(0.116)
School race segregation index			0.015
			(0.013)
School social class segregation index				0.037**
				(0.013)
School race-SES segregation index					0.033**	0.019
					(0.012)	(0.012)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.918	-0.691	-0.697	-0.692	-0.694	-0.686
	(0.678)	(0.669)	(0.669)	(0.668)	(0.668)	(0.663)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-2.888***	-2.578***	-2.574***	-2.553***	-2.560***	-2.299***
	(0.651)	(0.643)	(0.643)	(0.643)	(0.643)	(0.639)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	-2.601***	-2.265***	-2.237***	-2.219***	-2.223***	-1.858**
	(0.656)	(0.649)	(0.649)	(0.649)	(0.649)	(0.645)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.070	-0.051	-0.052	-0.049	-0.049	-0.028
	(0.075)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.073)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.280***	-0.289***	-0.288***	-0.287***	-0.286***	-0.228**
	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.075)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.135	-0.149	-0.147	-0.146	-0.144	-0.078
	(0.077)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)
Constant	0.728***	0.487***	0.479***	0.480***	0.480***	0.768***
	(0.114)	(0.122)	(0.123)	(0.122)	(0.122)	(0.128)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777
R2	0.049	0.075	0.075	0.076	0.076	0.094
Adjusted R2	0.048	0.074	0.074	0.074	0.074	0.091
Residual Std. Error	1.252 (df = 10764)	1.235 (df = 10758)	1.235 (df = 10757)	1.235 (df = 10757)	1.235 (df = 10757)	1.224 (df = 10732)
F Statistic	46.387*** (df = 12; 10764)	48.704*** (df = 18; 10758)	46.213*** (df = 19; 10757)	46.597*** (df = 19; 10757)	46.563*** (df = 19; 10757)	25.380*** (df = 44; 10732)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	-0.104
AM	-0.510
AP	-0.264
BA	-0.127
CE	-0.134
DF	-0.958
ES	-0.343
GO	-0.090
MA	0.110
MG	-0.594
MS	-0.222
MT	-0.323
PA	-0.336
PB	-0.251
PE	0.141
PI	0.363
PR	-0.568
RJ	-0.612
RN	-0.037
RO	-0.034
RR	-0.137
RS	-0.559
SC	-0.417
SE	0.275
SP	-0.712
TO	-0.042

---

Black students BOTTOM SES

Reading - Black BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.324***	-0.312***	-0.312***	-0.312***	-0.312***	-0.349***
	(0.077)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.079)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.280***	-0.254**	-0.254**	-0.254**	-0.257**	-0.306***
	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.082)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.215**	-0.169*	-0.169*	-0.169*	-0.169*	-0.237**
	(0.081)	(0.082)	(0.082)	(0.082)	(0.082)	(0.083)
% black students in municipality	-0.144	-0.294	-0.290	-0.294	-0.302	-0.410
	(0.297)	(0.294)	(0.295)	(0.294)	(0.294)	(0.310)
Average municipal SES	0.174***	0.262***	0.263***	0.263***	0.261***	0.337***
	(0.036)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.039)
Male students	-1.474***	-0.942***	-0.944***	-0.943***	-0.934***	-1.056***
	(0.162)	(0.165)	(0.165)	(0.165)	(0.165)	(0.168)
% Teachers working single school		-0.005	-0.006	-0.005	-0.005	-0.014
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)
% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.065***	-0.065***	-0.065***	-0.064***	-0.042**
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.014)
Number of schools in municipality		0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003*	0.001
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.297***	-0.297***	-0.297***	-0.299***	-0.227***
		(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.052)
Average school violence index		-0.043**	-0.043**	-0.043**	-0.044**	-0.045**
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
Average municipal dropout rate		0.889***	0.889***	0.889***	0.889***	0.964***
		(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.083)
School race segregation index			0.003
			(0.012)
School social class segregation index				0.001
				(0.012)
School race-SES segregation index					-0.016	-0.010
					(0.013)	(0.013)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.627	-0.501	-0.503	-0.501	-0.501	-0.381
	(0.421)	(0.417)	(0.417)	(0.417)	(0.417)	(0.417)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.496	-0.386	-0.388	-0.386	-0.377	-0.235
	(0.408)	(0.404)	(0.404)	(0.404)	(0.404)	(0.405)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	0.045	0.157	0.156	0.157	0.163	0.350
	(0.407)	(0.403)	(0.403)	(0.403)	(0.403)	(0.404)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.176**	-0.174**	-0.174**	-0.174**	-0.173**	-0.182***
	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.322***	-0.296***	-0.296***	-0.296***	-0.297***	-0.312***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.060)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.240***	-0.204***	-0.203***	-0.204***	-0.205***	-0.246***
	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)
Constant	1.141***	0.832***	0.833***	0.833***	0.825***	1.019***
	(0.092)	(0.101)	(0.101)	(0.101)	(0.101)	(0.131)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,723
R2	0.018	0.041	0.041	0.041	0.041	0.054
Adjusted R2	0.017	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.050
Residual Std. Error	1.150 (df = 10764)	1.136 (df = 10758)	1.136 (df = 10757)	1.136 (df = 10757)	1.136 (df = 10757)	1.133 (df = 10678)
F Statistic	16.432*** (df = 12; 10764)	25.537*** (df = 18; 10758)	24.196*** (df = 19; 10757)	24.191*** (df = 19; 10757)	24.280*** (df = 19; 10757)	13.772*** (df = 44; 10678)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.149
AL	0.163
AM	-0.158
AP	-0.071
BA	0.068
CE	0.432
ES	0.078
GO	0.225
MA	0.223
MG	0.110
MS	0.288
MT	-0.085
PA	-0.013
PB	-0.015
PE	0.228
PI	0.138
PR	-0.145
RJ	-0.231
RN	0.231
RO	0.223
RR	0.158
RS	-0.252
SC	-0.081
SE	0.126
SP	-0.246
TO	0.305

---

Math - Black BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
Cohort 2009-2013	-0.469***	-0.462***	-0.462***	-0.462***	-0.462***	-0.505***
	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.073)
Cohort 2011-2015	-0.429***	-0.408***	-0.408***	-0.406***	-0.406***	-0.466***
	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.076)
Cohort 2013-2017	-0.632***	-0.589***	-0.589***	-0.588***	-0.589***	-0.660***
	(0.075)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.077)
% black students in municipality	-0.652*	-0.802**	-0.798**	-0.797**	-0.798**	-0.956***
	(0.275)	(0.273)	(0.273)	(0.273)	(0.273)	(0.287)
Average municipal SES	0.198***	0.286***	0.286***	0.292***	0.286***	0.394***
	(0.033)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.036)
Male students	-0.527***	-0.008	-0.009	-0.012	-0.013	-0.054
	(0.151)	(0.153)	(0.153)	(0.153)	(0.153)	(0.155)
% Teachers working single school		-0.011	-0.011	-0.011	-0.011	-0.005
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
% Teachers w/o university degree		-0.063***	-0.063***	-0.064***	-0.064***	-0.031*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.013)
Number of schools in municipality		0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	-0.001
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
% Middle schools state-run		-0.311***	-0.311***	-0.310***	-0.311***	-0.184***
		(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.048)
Average school violence index		-0.040**	-0.039**	-0.039**	-0.039**	-0.041**
		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)
Average municipal dropout rate		0.833***	0.833***	0.832***	0.833***	0.880***
		(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.076)
School race segregation index			0.003
			(0.011)
School social class segregation index				0.016
				(0.011)
School race-SES segregation index					0.009	0.023
					(0.012)	(0.012)
Cohort 2009-2013 * % black students	-0.328	-0.208	-0.210	-0.209	-0.208	-0.107
	(0.391)	(0.387)	(0.387)	(0.387)	(0.387)	(0.385)
Cohort 2011-2015 * % black students	-0.336	-0.238	-0.240	-0.242	-0.243	-0.113
	(0.379)	(0.375)	(0.375)	(0.375)	(0.375)	(0.374)
Cohort 2013-2017 * % black students	0.183	0.277	0.276	0.271	0.274	0.409
	(0.378)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)
Cohort 2009-2013 * Average SES	-0.179***	-0.176***	-0.177***	-0.177***	-0.177***	-0.188***
	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)
Cohort 2011-2015 * Average SES	-0.393***	-0.365***	-0.366***	-0.365***	-0.365***	-0.384***
	(0.056)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.056)
Cohort 2013-2017 * Average SES	-0.438***	-0.401***	-0.401***	-0.401***	-0.400***	-0.444***
	(0.057)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.057)
Constant	0.984***	0.715***	0.716***	0.722***	0.719***	0.882***
	(0.086)	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.121)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,723
R2	0.025	0.050	0.050	0.051	0.050	0.069
Adjusted R2	0.024	0.049	0.049	0.049	0.049	0.066
Residual Std. Error	1.067 (df = 10764)	1.054 (df = 10758)	1.054 (df = 10757)	1.054 (df = 10757)	1.054 (df = 10757)	1.047 (df = 10678)
F Statistic	23.330*** (df = 12; 10764)	31.693*** (df = 18; 10758)	30.027*** (df = 19; 10757)	30.129*** (df = 19; 10757)	30.059*** (df = 19; 10757)	18.122*** (df = 44; 10678)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

state	Value-added
AC	0.377
AL	0.369
AM	-0.250
AP	0.034
BA	0.189
CE	0.529
ES	0.095
GO	0.311
MA	0.185
MG	0.105
MS	0.307
MT	-0.077
PA	0.022
PB	0.169
PE	0.344
PI	0.345
PR	0.106
RJ	0.169
RN	0.320
RO	0.262
RR	0.137
RS	-0.066
SC	-0.343
SE	0.365
SP	-0.323
TO	0.431

---

Municipality and State Analysis

White students TOP SES

## Warning: `aes_string()` was deprecated in ggplot2 3.0.0.
## ℹ Please use tidy evaluation idioms with `aes()`.
## ℹ See also `vignette("ggplot2-in-packages")` for more information.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

White students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

Black/Brown students TOP SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

Black/Brown students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

Black students TOP SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

Black students BOTTOM SES

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'

## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'