Descriptive Analysis (Baseline Burden)

(A) Global descriptive summary by year

## # A tibble: 14 × 10
##     year inc_mean inc_median inc_p25 inc_p75 mort_mean mort_median mort_p25
##    <int>    <dbl>      <dbl>   <dbl>   <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>    <dbl>
##  1  2010    150.        57     12       183       35.4        4.8     0.87 
##  2  2011    144.        53.5   15       185       33.3        4.95    0.762
##  3  2012    137.        55.5   12.5     176.      30.7        4.65    0.692
##  4  2013    132.        49.5   11       173       28.7        4.45    0.652
##  5  2014    125.        50.5   11       169.      26.5        4.15    0.645
##  6  2015    121.        53      9.6     164.      24.8        4.2     0.633
##  7  2016    116.        49      9.65    160.      23.1        4       0.532
##  8  2017    110.        45      9.05    151.      21.3        3.45    0.562
##  9  2018    110.        45      8.2     146.      20.3        3.5     0.562
## 10  2019    104.        42      9.3     144.      18.2        3.5     0.532
## 11  2020     98.1       41      7.22    137.      17.8        3.5     0.47 
## 12  2021     94.9       41      6.52    135       17.1        3.5     0.442
## 13  2022     96.1       40      7.72    133       15.2        3.35    0.472
## 14  2023    101.        41      8.15    132.      15.0        2.95    0.495
## # ℹ 2 more variables: mort_p75 <dbl>, countries_n <int>

(B) Regional descriptive summary by year

## # A tibble: 84 × 11
##    region  year inc_mean inc_median inc_p25 inc_p75 mort_mean mort_median
##    <chr>  <int>    <dbl>      <dbl>   <dbl>   <dbl>     <dbl>       <dbl>
##  1 AFR     2010     340.       246.   147      452.     105.           74
##  2 AFR     2011     326.       253    141      442       99.9          78
##  3 AFR     2012     311.       238    131      432.      92.3          76
##  4 AFR     2013     296.       225    127      418       86.1          63
##  5 AFR     2014     281.       218    121      398.      80.4          56
##  6 AFR     2015     264.       202    116.     382.      74.7          52
##  7 AFR     2016     250.       201    110      368.      68.5          50
##  8 AFR     2017     238.       189    105      361       63.0          48
##  9 AFR     2018     227.       178    100      342.      57.3          43
## 10 AFR     2019     217.       178     95.5    320.      52.1          39
## # ℹ 74 more rows
## # ℹ 3 more variables: mort_p25 <dbl>, mort_p75 <dbl>, countries_n <int>

(C) Baseline comparison table: 2010 vs 2023 (Global + Region)

## # A tibble: 6 × 9
##   region inc_mean_2010 inc_mean_2023 inc_median_2010 inc_median_2023
##   <chr>          <dbl>         <dbl>           <dbl>           <dbl>
## 1 AFR            340.          194.             246.           175  
## 2 AMR             41.7          31.3             19             15  
## 3 EMR            124.           70.7             42             23  
## 4 EUR             51.0          22.8             20              9.4
## 5 SEA            308.          222.             276            192  
## 6 WPR            165.          168.             100             68  
## # ℹ 4 more variables: mort_mean_2010 <dbl>, mort_mean_2023 <dbl>,
## #   mort_median_2010 <dbl>, mort_median_2023 <dbl>

Population-weighted means

## # A tibble: 14 × 3
##     year inc_wmean mort_wmean
##    <int>     <dbl>      <dbl>
##  1  2010      167.       30.3
##  2  2011      164.       29.2
##  3  2012      160.       27.4
##  4  2013      156.       26.0
##  5  2014      152.       24.7
##  6  2015      149.       23.3
##  7  2016      143.       21.9
##  8  2017      140.       20.7
##  9  2018      136.       19.3
## 10  2019      133.       18.1
## 11  2020      130.       17.8
## 12  2021      131.       17.7
## 13  2022      133.       16.6
## 14  2023      133.       15.5

Simple baseline plots

(1) Global mean incidence & mortality over time (country-unweighted)

(2) Regional distribution (boxplot) for 2010 vs 2023

Descriptive Analysis (Baseline Burden) using {gtsummary}

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A) Global descriptive summary (all countries pooled)

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**Global TB burden summary (2010–2023), country-level distribution**
Indicator	N = 3,009¹
inc_100k	117.0 (174.4); 47.0 [9.3, 156.0]; min=0.0, max=1,610.0
mort_100k	23.4 (47.3); 3.9 [0.6, 24.0]; min=0.0, max=558.0
¹ Mean (SD); Median [Q1, Q3]; min=Min, max=Max

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B) Regional descriptive summary (all years pooled)

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**TB burden by WHO region (2010–2023), country-level distribution**
Indicator	AFR N = 657¹	AMR N = 630¹	EMR N = 308¹	EUR N = 756¹	SEA N = 140¹	WPR N = 518¹	Overall N = 3,009¹
inc_100k	253.6 (213.5); 199.0 [104.0, 361.0]	33.1 (51.8); 17.0 [3.6, 44.0]	83.8 (159.2); 29.0 [13.0, 79.5]	34.1 (44.4); 12.0 [6.2, 50.0]	235.6 (140.5); 221.0 [149.0, 316.0]	157.9 (210.5); 75.5 [17.0, 183.0]	117.0 (174.4); 47.0 [9.3, 156.0]
mort_100k	68.2 (68.8); 46.0 [21.0, 97.0]	3.7 (6.2); 2.2 [0.4, 4.0]	16.6 (51.7); 1.3 [0.5, 9.4]	3.1 (5.0); 0.8 [0.4, 4.2]	41.2 (32.3); 35.0 [17.0, 62.0]	19.7 (36.0); 5.3 [0.9, 23.0]	23.4 (47.3); 3.9 [0.6, 24.0]
¹ Mean (SD); Median [Q1, Q3]

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C) Regional baseline comparison (2010 vs 2023)

Shows distribution of country rates within each region

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**TB burden comparison: 2010 vs 2023 (all countries pooled)**
Characteristic	2010 N = 214¹	2023 N = 215¹
inc_100k	57.0 [12.0, 183.0] ; mean=149.7	41.0 [8.1, 132.0] ; mean=100.5
mort_100k	4.8 [0.9, 36.0] ; mean=35.4	3.0 [0.5, 16.0] ; mean=15.0
¹ Median [Q1, Q3] ; mean=Mean

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D) Baseline comparison WITHIN each region (2010 vs 2023)

Using {tbl_strata} to produce one table per region

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**2010 vs 2023 within region**
Indicator	AFR		AMR		EMR		EUR		SEA		WPR
Indicator	2010 N = 46¹	2023 N = 47¹	2010 N = 45¹	2023 N = 45¹	2010 N = 22¹	2023 N = 22¹	2010 N = 54¹	2023 N = 54¹	2010 N = 10¹	2023 N = 10¹	2010 N = 37¹	2023 N = 37¹
inc_100k	245.5 [145.0, 461.0] ; mean=340.5	175.0 [73.0, 298.0] ; mean=193.6	19.0 [6.0, 49.0] ; mean=41.7	15.0 [3.7, 46.0] ; mean=31.3	42.0 [17.0, 98.0] ; mean=124.1	23.0 [11.0, 57.0] ; mean=70.7	20.0 [8.0, 85.0] ; mean=51.0	9.4 [4.9, 22.0] ; mean=22.8	276.0 [181.0, 474.0] ; mean=307.9	192.0 [149.0, 231.0] ; mean=222.4	100.0 [27.0, 221.0] ; mean=164.8	68.0 [17.0, 163.0] ; mean=167.9
mort_100k	74.0 [36.0, 147.0] ; mean=105.2	24.0 [12.0, 54.0] ; mean=37.1	2.7 [0.5, 4.5] ; mean=5.1	1.9 [0.5, 4.1] ; mean=3.3	1.5 [0.7, 9.8] ; mean=32.3	1.2 [0.4, 11.0] ; mean=11.9	1.2 [0.6, 7.0] ; mean=5.0	0.6 [0.3, 2.3] ; mean=2.1	53.0 [25.0, 121.0] ; mean=65.8	22.0 [16.0, 35.0] ; mean=28.5	5.4 [1.1, 33.0] ; mean=24.3	4.9 [0.8, 13.0] ; mean=18.6
¹ Median [Q1, Q3] ; mean=Mean

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Add p-values (nonparametric) for 2010 vs 2023 (pooled)

NOTE: This tests difference in distributions across years (pooled).

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**TB burden (2010 vs 2023): pooled country distributions with p-values**
Characteristic	2010 N = 214¹	2023 N = 215¹	p-value²
inc_100k	57.0 [12.0, 183.0]	41.0 [8.1, 132.0]	0.011
mort_100k	4.8 [0.9, 36.0]	3.0 [0.5, 16.0]	0.008
¹ Median [Q1, Q3]
² Wilcoxon rank sum test

Data Preparation

Global Year-to-Year Trends (Mean Across Countries)

Line Graphs (Core Output)

Linear Trend Analysis (Regression-Based)

**Linear trend estimates for global TB indicators (2010–2023)**
Characteristic	Incidence rate			Mortality rate			CDR
Characteristic	Beta	95% CI	p-value	Beta	95% CI	p-value	Beta	95% CI	p-value
year	-4.2	-4.9, -3.6	<0.001	-1.6	-1.8, -1.4	<0.001	0.62	0.37, 0.87	<0.001
Abbreviation: CI = Confidence Interval

Annual Percentage Change (APC)

Regional Trend Analysis

Joinpoint-Style Analysis

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = inc_mean ~ year * period, data = global_trend)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -2.3946 -0.8654  0.0000  0.8433  2.7874 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                         Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)  
## (Intercept)             6521.781   5627.536   1.159   0.2799  
## year                      -3.180      2.785  -1.142   0.2866  
## periodPost-COVID      -15455.472   7962.477  -1.941   0.0882 .
## periodPre-COVID         3745.231   5644.462   0.664   0.5257  
## year:periodPost-COVID      7.646      3.939   1.941   0.0882 .
## year:periodPre-COVID      -1.854      2.794  -0.664   0.5255  
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 1.969 on 8 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.9928, Adjusted R-squared:  0.9883 
## F-statistic: 220.5 on 5 and 8 DF,  p-value: 2.411e-08

Result

Descriptive Analysis (Baseline Burden)

(A) Global descriptive summary by year

(B) Regional descriptive summary by year

(C) Baseline comparison table: 2010 vs 2023 (Global + Region)

Population-weighted means

Simple baseline plots

(1) Global mean incidence & mortality over time (country-unweighted)

(2) Regional distribution (boxplot) for 2010 vs 2023

Descriptive Analysis (Baseline Burden) using {gtsummary}

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A) Global descriptive summary (all countries pooled)

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B) Regional descriptive summary (all years pooled)

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C) Regional baseline comparison (2010 vs 2023)

Shows distribution of country rates within each region

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D) Baseline comparison WITHIN each region (2010 vs 2023)

Using {tbl_strata} to produce one table per region

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Add p-values (nonparametric) for 2010 vs 2023 (pooled)

NOTE: This tests difference in distributions across years (pooled).

————————————————————

Data Preparation

Global Year-to-Year Trends (Mean Across Countries)

Line Graphs (Core Output)

Linear Trend Analysis (Regression-Based)

Annual Percentage Change (APC)

Regional Trend Analysis

Joinpoint-Style Analysis