DATA 621 Blog 4 Probability and Daily Decision-Making:

Probability

Probability quantifies the likelihood that an event will occur. It is widely used in decision-making under uncertainty, from weather forecasts to risk assessment.

In daily life, probability can help estimate how often a routine event may happen, such as attending the gym during the week.

R Example

Assume there is a 50% chance of going to the gym on any given day.

# Probability parameters
p <- 0.5
days <- 7

# Probability of going exactly 4 times
dbinom(4, size = days, prob = p)
## [1] 0.2734375

Probability Distribution

x <- 0:7
probs <- dbinom(x, size = days, prob = p)

barplot(probs,
        names.arg = x,
        main = "Gym Visits per Week",
        xlab = "Number of Visits",
        ylab = "Probability")

Interpretation

This distribution shows which outcomes are most likely over a week. It provides a realistic view of consistency and helps set achievable goals.

Conclusion

Probability allows everyday behavior to be evaluated quantitatively. Even simple models can offer insight into habits and expectations.