library(tidyverse)
library(survey)
library(broom)
library(dplyr)
library(ggplot2)
# Load BRFSS data (pre-processed to RDS)
BRFSS2011 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2011.RDS")
BRFSS2012 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2012.RDS")
BRFSS2013 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2013.RDS")
BRFSS2014 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2014.RDS")
BRFSS2015 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2015.RDS")
BRFSS2016 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2016.RDS")
BRFSS2017 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2017.RDS")
BRFSS2018 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2018.RDS")
BRFSS2019 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2019.RDS")
BRFSS2020 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2020.RDS")
BRFSS2021 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2021.RDS")
BRFSS2022 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2022.RDS")
BRFSS2023 <- readRDS("C:/Users/63650/Downloads/BRFSS2023.RDS")
# -------------------------
# 2011 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2011 <- BRFSS2011 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2011 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2011, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2011 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2011, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2011, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2012 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2012 <- BRFSS2012 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2012 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2012, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2012 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2012, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2012, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2013 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2013 <- BRFSS2013 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2013 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2013, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2013 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2013, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2013, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2014 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2014 <- BRFSS2014 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2014 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2014, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2014 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2014, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2014, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2015 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2015 <- BRFSS2015 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2015 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2015, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2015 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2015, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2015, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2016 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2016 <- BRFSS2016 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2016 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2016, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2016 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2016, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2016, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2017 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2017 <- BRFSS2017 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2017 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2017, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2017 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2017, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2017, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2018 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2018 <- BRFSS2018 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete3, exerany2) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2018 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2018, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2018 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2018, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2018, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# NOTE:
# Beginning in 2019, BRFSS renames the diabetes variable from DIABETE3 to DIABETE4.
# To preserve consistency across years, DIABETE4 is renamed to DIABETE3
# before any recoding or regression is performed.
# 2019 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2019 <- BRFSS2019 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete4, exerany2) %>%
rename(diabete3 = diabete4) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2019 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2019, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2019 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2019, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2019, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2020 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2020 <- BRFSS2020 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete4, exerany2) %>%
rename(diabete3 = diabete4) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
tx_exerany2_2020 <- tx_exerany2_2020 %>%
group_by(x.ststr) %>%
filter(n() >= 10) %>%
ungroup()
des_exerany2_2020 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2020, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2020 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2020, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2020, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2021 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2021 <- BRFSS2021 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete4, exerany2) %>%
rename(diabete3 = diabete4) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
tx_exerany2_2021 <- tx_exerany2_2021 %>%
group_by(x.ststr) %>%
filter(n() >= 10) %>%
ungroup()
des_exerany2_2021 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2021, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2021 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2021, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2021, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2022 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2022 <- BRFSS2022 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete4, exerany2) %>%
rename(diabete3 = diabete4) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
tx_exerany2_2022 <- tx_exerany2_2022 %>%
group_by(x.ststr) %>%
filter(n() >= 10) %>%
ungroup()
des_exerany2_2022 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2022, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2022 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2022, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2022, predictor="exerany2")
# -------------------------
# 2023 — EXERANY2
# -------------------------
tx_exerany2_2023 <- BRFSS2023 %>%
filter(x.state == 48) %>%
select(x.psu, x.ststr, x.llcpwt, diabete4, exerany2) %>%
rename(diabete3 = diabete4) %>%
mutate(
diabete3 = ifelse(diabete3 %in% c(7, 9), NA, diabete3),
diabetes_dx = case_when(diabete3 == 1 ~ 1, diabete3 == 3 ~ 0, TRUE ~ NA_real_),
exerany2 = ifelse(exerany2 %in% c(7, 9), NA, exerany2)
) %>%
filter(!is.na(diabetes_dx), !is.na(exerany2)) %>%
mutate(exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c(1, 2))) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
tx_exerany2_2023 <- tx_exerany2_2023 %>%
group_by(x.ststr) %>%
filter(n() >= 10) %>%
ungroup()
des_exerany2_2023 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt, data=tx_exerany2_2023, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2023 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2023, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
) %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
mutate(year=2023, predictor="exerany2")
# Pool 2012–2014 (pre-ACA)
pool_exerany2_2012_2014 <- bind_rows(
tx_exerany2_2012 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
),
tx_exerany2_2013 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
),
tx_exerany2_2014 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
)
) %>%
mutate(
exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c("1","2"))
) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2012_2014 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt,
data=pool_exerany2_2012_2014, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2012_2014 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2012_2014, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
)
strong_exerany2_2012_2014 <- out_exerany2_2012_2014 %>%
filter(term!="(Intercept)") %>%
slice_min(p.value, n=1, with_ties=FALSE)
strong_exerany2_2012_2014
# Pool 2014–2016 (early ACA)
pool_exerany2_2014_2016 <- bind_rows(
tx_exerany2_2014 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
),
tx_exerany2_2015 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
),
tx_exerany2_2016 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
)
) %>%
mutate(
exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c("1","2"))
) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2014_2016 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt,
data=pool_exerany2_2014_2016, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2014_2016 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2014_2016, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
)
strong_exerany2_2014_2016 <- out_exerany2_2014_2016 %>%
filter(term!="(Intercept)") %>%
slice_min(p.value, n=1, with_ties=FALSE)
strong_exerany2_2014_2016
# Pool 2020–2023 (COVID era)
pool_exerany2_2020_2023 <- bind_rows(
tx_exerany2_2020 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
),
tx_exerany2_2021 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
),
tx_exerany2_2022 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
),
tx_exerany2_2023 %>% select(x.psu,x.ststr,x.llcpwt,diabetes_dx,exerany2) %>%
mutate(
x.psu=as.numeric(x.psu), x.ststr=as.numeric(x.ststr), x.llcpwt=as.numeric(x.llcpwt),
diabetes_dx=as.numeric(diabetes_dx), exerany2=as.character(exerany2)
)
) %>%
mutate(
exerany2 = factor(exerany2, levels = c("1","2"))
) # 1=Yes (baseline), 2=No
des_exerany2_2020_2023 <- svydesign(ids=~x.psu, strata=~x.ststr, weights=~x.llcpwt,
data=pool_exerany2_2020_2023, nest=TRUE)
out_exerany2_2020_2023 <- broom::tidy(
svyglm(diabetes_dx ~ exerany2, design=des_exerany2_2020_2023, family=quasibinomial()),
conf.int=FALSE
)
strong_exerany2_2020_2023 <- out_exerany2_2020_2023 %>%
filter(term!="(Intercept)") %>%
slice_min(p.value, n=1, with_ties=FALSE)
strong_exerany2_2020_2023
# Combine all years
exerany2_all <- bind_rows(
out_exerany2_2011 %>% mutate(year = 2011),
out_exerany2_2012 %>% mutate(year = 2012),
out_exerany2_2013 %>% mutate(year = 2013),
out_exerany2_2014 %>% mutate(year = 2014),
out_exerany2_2015 %>% mutate(year = 2015),
out_exerany2_2016 %>% mutate(year = 2016),
out_exerany2_2017 %>% mutate(year = 2017),
out_exerany2_2018 %>% mutate(year = 2018),
out_exerany2_2019 %>% mutate(year = 2019),
out_exerany2_2020 %>% mutate(year = 2020),
out_exerany2_2021 %>% mutate(year = 2021),
out_exerany2_2022 %>% mutate(year = 2022),
out_exerany2_2023 %>% mutate(year = 2023)
)
# Keep only the EXERANY2 coefficient (drop intercept)
exerany2_strongest <- exerany2_all %>%
filter(term != "(Intercept)") %>%
group_by(year) %>%
slice_min(order_by = p.value, n = 1, with_ties = FALSE) %>%
ungroup()
# Build exerany2_period_table from pooled strongest objects
exerany2_period_table <- bind_rows(
strong_exerany2_2012_2014 %>% mutate(period = "2012–2014"),
strong_exerany2_2014_2016 %>% mutate(period = "2014–2016"),
strong_exerany2_2020_2023 %>% mutate(period = "2020–2023")
)
# Pooled-period points (from exerany2_period_table)
exerany2_pooled_plot <- exerany2_period_table %>%
mutate(
year = c(2013, 2015, 2021.5),
label = term
)
# Brackets below lowest CI
y_ci_min <- min(exerany2_strongest$estimate - 1.96 * exerany2_strongest$std.error, na.rm = TRUE)
y_ci_max <- max(exerany2_strongest$estimate + 1.96 * exerany2_strongest$std.error, na.rm = TRUE)
y_pad <- 0.08 * (y_ci_max - y_ci_min)
y_br <- y_ci_min - y_pad
# Plot
ggplot(exerany2_strongest, aes(x = year, y = estimate)) +
geom_line() +
geom_point(size = 2.5) +
# Error bars for yearly points
geom_errorbar(
aes(
ymin = estimate - 1.96 * std.error,
ymax = estimate + 1.96 * std.error
),
width = 0.2,
linewidth = 0.6
) +
geom_text(
aes(label = term),
vjust = -1.2,
size = 2.8,
check_overlap = TRUE
) +
geom_vline(xintercept = 2014, linetype = "dashed", color = "#1f77b4", linewidth = 0.8) +
geom_vline(xintercept = 2020, linetype = "dashed", color = "#d62728", linewidth = 0.8) +
annotate(
"text",
x = 2014,
y = max(exerany2_strongest$estimate, na.rm = TRUE),
label = "ACA",
color = "#1f77b4",
angle = 90,
hjust = -1.4,
vjust = -0.6,
size = 4
) +
annotate(
"text",
x = 2020,
y = max(exerany2_strongest$estimate, na.rm = TRUE),
label = "COVID",
color = "#d62728",
angle = 90,
hjust = -0.6,
vjust = -0.6,
size = 4
) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks = 2011:2023) +
labs(
x = "Year",
y = "Log-odds coefficient",
title = "Most Statistically Significant Exercise Coefficient by Year (Texas BRFSS)",
subtitle = "Dashed lines mark 2014 (ACA-era onset) and 2020 (COVID-era onset)"
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
axis.text.x = element_text(size = 12, face = "bold", angle = 45, hjust = 1),
axis.text.y = element_text(size = 12, face = "bold"),
axis.title.x = element_text(size = 13, face = "bold"),
axis.title.y = element_text(size = 13, face = "bold"),
plot.title = element_text(face = "bold")
) +
# Pooled-era strongest coefficients
geom_point(
data = exerany2_pooled_plot,
aes(x = year, y = estimate),
color = "#2E8B57",
size = 2.5
) +
# Error bars for pooled-era points
geom_errorbar(
data = exerany2_pooled_plot,
aes(
x = year,
ymin = estimate - 1.96 * std.error,
ymax = estimate + 1.96 * std.error
),
width = 0.4,
linewidth = 0.8,
color = "#2E8B57"
) +
geom_text(
data = exerany2_pooled_plot,
aes(x = year, y = estimate, label = label, vjust = ifelse(year == 2021.5, -1.2, 1.4)),
color = "#2E8B57",
size = 3
) +
# Green brackets showing pooled-year ranges
annotate(
"segment",
x = c(2012, 2014, 2020),
xend = c(2014, 2016, 2023),
y = y_br,
yend = y_br,
linewidth = 1,
color = "#2E8B57"
) +
annotate(
"segment",
x = c(2012, 2014, 2020),
xend = c(2012, 2014, 2020),
y = y_br - 0.1,
yend = y_br + 0.1,
linewidth = 1,
color = "#2E8B57"
) +
annotate(
"segment",
x = c(2014, 2016, 2023),
xend = c(2014, 2016, 2023),
y = y_br - 0.1,
yend = y_br + 0.1,
linewidth = 1,
color = "#2E8B57"
)