Cohort learning gain, valid under IRT comparability - Prova Brasil. State effects as an Absolute Value

Equation

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{SCORE}_{9\mathrm{TH},\, i+4} - \mathrm{SCORE}_{5\mathrm{TH},\, i} \;=&\; \beta_0 + \sum_{c} \gamma_c \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) + \sum_{s} \lambda_s \,\mathbb{1}(\mathrm{STATE}_m = s) \\[4pt] &+ \beta_1 \,\mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} + \beta_2 \,\mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_3 \,\mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \beta_4 \,\mathrm{SEXO\_M}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \delta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{RACA\_PRETO}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} \\[4pt] &+ \sum_{c} \theta_c \, \mathbb{1}(\mathrm{COHORT}_i = c) \times \mathrm{NSE\_AVG}^{(9)}_{m,i+4} + \varepsilon_{m,i} \end{aligned}\]

where:

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{DROPOUT}_{m,i} = \frac{N^{(9)}_{m,i+4}}{N^{(5)}_{m,i}} \end{aligned}\]

State Value added

The state value-added represents the estimated academic gain for a specific state as if that state had the exact national average for all student and school characteristics.

\[\begin{aligned} \mathrm{ValueAdded}_{s} = \underbrace{\left( \hat{\alpha} + \sum_{j=1}^{P} \hat{\beta}_j \overline{X}_j \right)}_{\text{GO (Baseline)}} + \hat{\beta}_{s} \end{aligned}\]

Where:

• \(\hat{\alpha}\): The Intercept.
• \(\sum_{j=1}^{P} \hat{\beta}_j \overline{X}_j\): The sum of ALL coefficients multiplied by their national averages (this includes demographics, school variables, AND the coefficients of all states multiplied by their state proportions).
• \(\hat{\beta}_{s}\): The specific coefficient for the state being analyzed (added to the baseline).

Normalization (z-score)

##  normalized covariates (z-score with gloabl average/sd):**
##  GANHO_LEITURA, GANHO_MATEMATICA, NSE_AVG, avg_index_violence, kl_raca, kl_NSE, kl_raca_ses, ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2, afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5 
## 
##  covariates kept in raw scale:**
##  SEXO_M, RACA_PRETO, DROP_OUT_RATE, proportion_estadual, NUM_SCHOOLS

Results

White students TOP SES

Reading - White TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.405***	-0.376***	-0.375***	-0.375***	-0.375***	-0.409***
	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.055)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.213***	-0.175**	-0.175**	-0.174**	-0.174**	-0.239***
	(0.058)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.056)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.338***	-0.280***	-0.284***	-0.283***	-0.282***	-0.340***
	(0.058)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.056)
RACA_PRETO	1.458***	0.830**	0.880**	0.795**	0.804**	0.897**
	(0.284)	(0.279)	(0.282)	(0.280)	(0.280)	(0.286)
NSE_AVG	-0.059	-0.052	-0.054	-0.060	-0.057	-0.006
	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)
SEXO_M	-1.096***	-0.643***	-0.637***	-0.633***	-0.638***	-0.593***
	(0.106)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.104)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.016	-0.017	-0.018	-0.017	-0.007
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		0.134***	0.133***	0.133***	0.134***	0.070***
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.016)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.001*	0.001*	0.001*	0.001*	0.0004
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
proportion_estadual		-0.174***	-0.170***	-0.168***	-0.171***	-0.153***
		(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.023)
avg_index_violence		-0.023**	-0.022**	-0.022**	-0.023**	-0.033***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
DROP_OUT_RATE		1.051***	1.046***	1.050***	1.051***	1.020***
		(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.064)
kl_raca			0.010
			(0.007)
kl_NSE				0.015*
				(0.007)
kl_raca_ses					0.008	-0.002
					(0.007)	(0.007)
UfAC						0.040
						(0.184)
UfAM						0.040
						(0.142)
UfAP						-0.113
						(0.183)
UfBA						-0.076
						(0.096)
UfCE						0.485
						(0.497)
UfDF						-0.779*
						(0.354)
UfES						-0.381***
						(0.056)
UfMA						0.105
						(0.316)
UfMG						-0.475***
						(0.032)
UfMS						0.032
						(0.050)
UfMT						-0.180***
						(0.044)
UfPA						-0.132
						(0.153)
UfPB						-0.197
						(0.168)
UfPE						0.393**
						(0.149)
UfPI						1.507*
						(0.702)
UfPR						-0.371***
						(0.035)
UfRJ						-0.526***
						(0.049)
UfRN						0.154
						(0.130)
UfRO						0.113
						(0.080)
UfRR						0.137
						(0.174)
UfRS						-0.341***
						(0.035)
UfSC						-0.353***
						(0.037)
UfSE						-0.413
						(0.352)
UfSP						-0.402***
						(0.032)
UfTO						0.280***
						(0.082)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-1.146**	-1.011**	-1.019**	-1.008**	-1.009**	-0.941**
	(0.383)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.365)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-1.560***	-1.307***	-1.313***	-1.289***	-1.297***	-1.137**
	(0.365)	(0.355)	(0.355)	(0.356)	(0.356)	(0.349)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-1.483***	-1.200***	-1.193***	-1.171**	-1.183**	-0.988**
	(0.369)	(0.359)	(0.360)	(0.360)	(0.360)	(0.353)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.080	0.081	0.080	0.082	0.082	0.107*
	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.042)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.082	-0.098*	-0.098*	-0.097*	-0.097*	-0.052
	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.043)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.031	-0.046	-0.045	-0.045	-0.045	-0.006
	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.043)
Constant	0.667***	0.488***	0.482***	0.490***	0.489***	0.721***
	(0.065)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.069)	(0.071)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002
R2	0.078	0.127	0.127	0.127	0.127	0.166
Adjusted R2	0.077	0.125	0.125	0.125	0.125	0.163
Residual Std. Error	0.736 (df = 10989)	0.716 (df = 10983)	0.716 (df = 10982)	0.716 (df = 10982)	0.716 (df = 10982)	0.700 (df = 10957)
F Statistic	77.104*** (df = 12; 10989)	88.421*** (df = 18; 10983)	83.874*** (df = 19; 10982)	83.999*** (df = 19; 10982)	83.849*** (df = 19; 10982)	49.644*** (df = 44; 10957)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = -0.1391

List of states with their averages and value-added (Reading)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	182.823	0.369	0.040	-0.099
AM	176.099	0.291	0.040	-0.099
AP	161.139	0.484	-0.113	-0.252
BA	171.628	0.217	-0.076	-0.215
CE	202.351	0.209	0.485	0.346
DF	205.350	1.293	-0.779	-0.918
ES	200.307	0.558	-0.381	-0.520
GO	193.617	0.545	0.000	-0.139
MA	173.167	0.133	0.105	-0.034
MG	210.274	0.642	-0.475	-0.614
MS	188.987	0.741	0.032	-0.108
MT	186.493	0.511	-0.180	-0.319
PA	174.012	0.256	-0.132	-0.271
PB	181.126	0.233	-0.197	-0.336
PE	176.710	0.447	0.393	0.254
PI	150.374	0.182	1.507	1.368
PR	197.739	0.844	-0.371	-0.510
RJ	196.832	0.804	-0.526	-0.665
RN	176.445	0.225	0.154	0.015
RO	184.721	0.391	0.113	-0.026
RR	168.850	0.514	0.137	-0.002
RS	197.037	1.287	-0.341	-0.480
SC	197.136	1.203	-0.353	-0.492
SE	158.773	0.116	-0.413	-0.552
SP	203.987	0.948	-0.402	-0.541
TO	181.089	0.327	0.280	0.141

---

Math - White TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.823***	-0.809***	-0.808***	-0.808***	-0.809***	-0.841***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.057)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.616***	-0.593***	-0.595***	-0.592***	-0.592***	-0.695***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.058)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.693***	-0.643***	-0.655***	-0.648***	-0.645***	-0.776***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.058)
RACA_PRETO	0.869**	0.130	0.286	0.065	0.092	-0.052
	(0.301)	(0.293)	(0.296)	(0.294)	(0.294)	(0.297)
NSE_AVG	0.015	0.019	0.011	0.003	0.012	0.030
	(0.034)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)	(0.033)
SEXO_M	-0.704***	-0.151	-0.134	-0.132	-0.145	0.071
	(0.113)	(0.110)	(0.110)	(0.111)	(0.111)	(0.108)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.023*	0.021*	0.020	0.022*	0.012
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		0.196***	0.194***	0.195***	0.196***	0.070***
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.017)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.001*	0.0004	0.0004	0.0005	0.0004
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
proportion_estadual		-0.236***	-0.224***	-0.224***	-0.231***	-0.193***
		(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.023)	(0.024)
avg_index_violence		-0.017*	-0.015	-0.016*	-0.017*	-0.016*
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
DROP_OUT_RATE		1.139***	1.122***	1.136***	1.139***	0.849***
		(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.066)
kl_raca			0.030***
			(0.007)
kl_NSE				0.028***
				(0.008)
kl_raca_ses					0.012	-0.008
					(0.007)	(0.007)
UfAC						0.110
						(0.191)
UfAM						-0.280
						(0.147)
UfAP						-0.071
						(0.190)
UfBA						0.044
						(0.100)
UfCE						0.301
						(0.515)
UfDF						-0.648
						(0.367)
UfES						-0.138*
						(0.058)
UfMA						0.070
						(0.327)
UfMG						-0.445***
						(0.033)
UfMS						0.041
						(0.052)
UfMT						-0.124**
						(0.046)
UfPA						-0.133
						(0.159)
UfPB						0.160
						(0.174)
UfPE						0.336*
						(0.154)
UfPI						1.973**
						(0.727)
UfPR						-0.476***
						(0.036)
UfRJ						-0.417***
						(0.051)
UfRN						0.263
						(0.134)
UfRO						0.082
						(0.083)
UfRR						0.260
						(0.180)
UfRS						-0.268***
						(0.037)
UfSC						-0.243***
						(0.038)
UfSE						-0.201
						(0.365)
UfSP						-0.635***
						(0.033)
UfTO						0.358***
						(0.085)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.171	0.313	0.287	0.319	0.316	0.243
	(0.407)	(0.392)	(0.391)	(0.391)	(0.391)	(0.378)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.753	-0.504	-0.522	-0.470	-0.489	-0.308
	(0.387)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.361)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-0.898*	-0.635	-0.615	-0.582	-0.611	-0.266
	(0.392)	(0.378)	(0.377)	(0.378)	(0.378)	(0.366)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.072	0.080	0.078	0.082	0.081	0.101*
	(0.047)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.044)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.132**	-0.141**	-0.141**	-0.140**	-0.141**	-0.068
	(0.048)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.045)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.069	-0.075	-0.072	-0.073	-0.073	0.005
	(0.048)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.045)
Constant	0.655***	0.523***	0.504***	0.526***	0.524***	0.740***
	(0.069)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.074)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002
R2	0.160	0.223	0.224	0.224	0.223	0.278
Adjusted R2	0.159	0.221	0.222	0.222	0.221	0.275
Residual Std. Error	0.781 (df = 10989)	0.752 (df = 10983)	0.752 (df = 10982)	0.752 (df = 10982)	0.752 (df = 10982)	0.726 (df = 10957)
F Statistic	174.816*** (df = 12; 10989)	174.745*** (df = 18; 10983)	166.651*** (df = 19; 10982)	166.372*** (df = 19; 10982)	165.722*** (df = 19; 10982)	95.679*** (df = 44; 10957)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = -0.2132

List of states with their averages and value-added (Math)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	196.972	0.369	0.110	-0.103
AM	195.231	0.291	-0.280	-0.493
AP	172.247	0.484	-0.071	-0.285
BA	186.821	0.217	0.044	-0.169
CE	216.118	0.209	0.301	0.088
DF	223.487	1.293	-0.648	-0.861
ES	220.874	0.558	-0.138	-0.351
GO	211.516	0.545	0.000	-0.213
MA	185.386	0.133	0.070	-0.143
MG	233.824	0.642	-0.445	-0.658
MS	206.824	0.741	0.041	-0.173
MT	204.547	0.511	-0.124	-0.337
PA	187.828	0.256	-0.133	-0.346
PB	194.237	0.233	0.160	-0.053
PE	194.019	0.447	0.336	0.122
PI	159.317	0.182	1.973	1.760
PR	222.115	0.844	-0.476	-0.689
RJ	215.135	0.804	-0.417	-0.630
RN	189.828	0.225	0.263	0.050
RO	203.944	0.391	0.082	-0.131
RR	180.296	0.514	0.260	0.046
RS	217.733	1.287	-0.268	-0.482
SC	217.836	1.203	-0.243	-0.456
SE	178.029	0.116	-0.201	-0.414
SP	228.421	0.948	-0.635	-0.848
TO	199.048	0.327	0.358	0.145

---

White students BOTTOM SES

Reading - White TBOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.364***	-0.379***	-0.379***	-0.379***	-0.379***	-0.414***
	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.324***	-0.320***	-0.320***	-0.319***	-0.319***	-0.359***
	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.064)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.389***	-0.359***	-0.358***	-0.359***	-0.359***	-0.410***
	(0.065)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.064)	(0.065)
RACA_PRETO	-0.229	-0.395	-0.409	-0.395	-0.394	-0.278
	(0.242)	(0.237)	(0.238)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.248)
NSE_AVG	0.224***	0.341***	0.340***	0.349***	0.342***	0.424***
	(0.029)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.030)	(0.031)
SEXO_M	-1.307***	-0.663***	-0.661***	-0.667***	-0.668***	-0.787***
	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.132)	(0.134)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.022*	-0.022*	-0.022*	-0.022*	-0.034**
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.056***	-0.056***	-0.057***	-0.057***	-0.036**
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.004**	0.004**	0.003**	0.004**	0.0004
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
proportion_estadual		-0.332***	-0.333***	-0.330***	-0.331***	-0.177***
		(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.042)
avg_index_violence		-0.021	-0.021	-0.020	-0.020	-0.024*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
DROP_OUT_RATE		1.070***	1.070***	1.069***	1.070***	1.114***
		(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.066)
kl_raca			-0.006
			(0.010)
kl_NSE				0.018
				(0.010)
kl_raca_ses					0.009	0.015
					(0.010)	(0.010)
UfAC						-0.123
						(0.125)
UfAL						-0.058
						(0.083)
UfAM						-0.264**
						(0.088)
UfAP						-0.462**
						(0.145)
UfBA						-0.252***
						(0.072)
UfCE						0.208**
						(0.077)
UfES						-0.420***
						(0.115)
UfMA						-0.050
						(0.077)
UfMG						-0.300***
						(0.063)
UfMS						-0.200
						(0.212)
UfMT						-0.324***
						(0.092)
UfPA						-0.333***
						(0.079)
UfPB						-0.270***
						(0.071)
UfPE						0.026
						(0.073)
UfPI						-0.152*
						(0.074)
UfPR						-0.552***
						(0.096)
UfRJ						-0.629**
						(0.232)
UfRN						-0.040
						(0.074)
UfRO						-0.195
						(0.104)
UfRR						-0.201
						(0.158)
UfRS						-0.386**
						(0.127)
UfSC						-0.627**
						(0.211)
UfSE						-0.122
						(0.084)
UfSP						-0.475***
						(0.109)
UfTO						-0.179*
						(0.072)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.145	-0.074	-0.070	-0.073	-0.074	0.049
	(0.343)	(0.335)	(0.335)	(0.335)	(0.335)	(0.333)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.386	-0.329	-0.325	-0.332	-0.334	-0.215
	(0.333)	(0.325)	(0.325)	(0.325)	(0.325)	(0.324)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.674*	0.719*	0.723*	0.715*	0.718*	0.866**
	(0.332)	(0.324)	(0.324)	(0.324)	(0.324)	(0.323)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.186***	-0.188***	-0.187***	-0.188***	-0.188***	-0.196***
	(0.045)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.044)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.251***	-0.229***	-0.228***	-0.228***	-0.228***	-0.238***
	(0.048)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.048)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.385***	-0.358***	-0.358***	-0.358***	-0.357***	-0.387***
	(0.049)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)
Constant	1.100***	0.740***	0.739***	0.749***	0.744***	0.975***
	(0.075)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.102)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	10,949
R2	0.025	0.071	0.072	0.072	0.072	0.093
Adjusted R2	0.024	0.070	0.070	0.070	0.070	0.089
Residual Std. Error	0.956 (df = 10989)	0.934 (df = 10983)	0.934 (df = 10982)	0.934 (df = 10982)	0.934 (df = 10982)	0.926 (df = 10904)
F Statistic	23.962*** (df = 12; 10989)	46.966*** (df = 18; 10983)	44.510*** (df = 19; 10982)	44.676*** (df = 19; 10982)	44.538*** (df = 19; 10982)	25.331*** (df = 44; 10904)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = 0.2061

List of states with their averages and value-added (Reading)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	171.436	-0.634	-0.123	0.083
AL	154.585	-1.290	-0.058	0.148
AM	169.669	-0.537	-0.264	-0.058
AP	158.338	-0.403	-0.462	-0.256
BA	163.740	-0.912	-0.252	-0.046
CE	175.615	-1.138	0.208	0.414
ES	189.012	-0.162	-0.420	-0.214
GO	181.329	-0.342	0.000	0.206
MA	154.945	-1.290	-0.050	0.156
MG	193.290	-0.587	-0.300	-0.094
MS	174.319	-0.290	-0.200	0.006
MT	171.326	-0.260	-0.324	-0.117
PA	162.493	-0.769	-0.333	-0.126
PB	168.142	-1.015	-0.270	-0.064
PE	165.897	-0.981	0.026	0.232
PI	165.359	-1.213	-0.152	0.054
PR	181.027	-0.225	-0.552	-0.346
RJ	196.629	-0.288	-0.629	-0.423
RN	162.003	-0.761	-0.040	0.167
RO	174.763	-0.308	-0.195	0.012
RR	160.152	-0.393	-0.201	0.005
RS	180.069	-0.264	-0.386	-0.180
SC	177.838	-0.112	-0.627	-0.421
SE	161.771	-0.929	-0.122	0.085
SP	187.850	-0.240	-0.475	-0.269
TO	172.739	-0.620	-0.179	0.027

---

Math - White TBOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.661***	-0.686***	-0.686***	-0.686***	-0.686***	-0.739***
	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.059)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.683***	-0.695***	-0.695***	-0.693***	-0.691***	-0.758***
	(0.061)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.060)	(0.061)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.798***	-0.784***	-0.785***	-0.784***	-0.785***	-0.858***
	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.063)
RACA_PRETO	-0.450	-0.627**	-0.607**	-0.626**	-0.623**	-0.750**
	(0.233)	(0.228)	(0.229)	(0.228)	(0.228)	(0.238)
NSE_AVG	0.218***	0.350***	0.351***	0.361***	0.353***	0.453***
	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.029)	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.030)
SEXO_M	-0.462***	0.133	0.130	0.127	0.120	0.049
	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.127)	(0.128)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.020*	-0.020*	-0.021*	-0.021*	-0.019
		(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.009)	(0.010)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.046***	-0.046***	-0.047***	-0.048***	-0.022*
		(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.010)	(0.011)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.003*	0.003*	0.002	0.002	-0.0003
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
proportion_estadual		-0.405***	-0.404***	-0.402***	-0.403***	-0.223***
		(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.040)
avg_index_violence		-0.020	-0.020	-0.019	-0.019	-0.023*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.884***	0.883***	0.883***	0.885***	0.873***
		(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.063)
kl_raca			0.008
			(0.009)
kl_NSE				0.025**
				(0.009)
kl_raca_ses					0.025*	0.033***
					(0.010)	(0.010)
UfAC						-0.053
						(0.120)
UfAL						-0.036
						(0.079)
UfAM						-0.482***
						(0.084)
UfAP						-0.462***
						(0.139)
UfBA						-0.211**
						(0.069)
UfCE						0.144
						(0.074)
UfES						-0.311**
						(0.110)
UfMA						-0.138
						(0.074)
UfMG						-0.349***
						(0.060)
UfMS						-0.145
						(0.203)
UfMT						-0.309***
						(0.088)
UfPA						-0.307***
						(0.075)
UfPB						-0.305***
						(0.068)
UfPE						0.039
						(0.070)
UfPI						0.010
						(0.071)
UfPR						-0.607***
						(0.091)
UfRJ						-0.538*
						(0.223)
UfRN						-0.018
						(0.071)
UfRO						-0.176
						(0.100)
UfRR						-0.062
						(0.152)
UfRS						-0.317**
						(0.122)
UfSC						-0.561**
						(0.202)
UfSE						-0.003
						(0.081)
UfSP						-0.726***
						(0.105)
UfTO						-0.045
						(0.069)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.185	0.265	0.260	0.266	0.264	0.435
	(0.330)	(0.322)	(0.323)	(0.322)	(0.322)	(0.319)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	0.207	0.267	0.260	0.263	0.253	0.438
	(0.320)	(0.313)	(0.313)	(0.313)	(0.313)	(0.310)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.687*	0.719*	0.714*	0.712*	0.715*	0.891**
	(0.319)	(0.312)	(0.312)	(0.312)	(0.312)	(0.310)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.249***	-0.251***	-0.251***	-0.251***	-0.252***	-0.270***
	(0.043)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)	(0.042)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.402***	-0.378***	-0.378***	-0.378***	-0.376***	-0.401***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.046)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.527***	-0.496***	-0.496***	-0.496***	-0.495***	-0.539***
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
Constant	0.906***	0.676***	0.677***	0.688***	0.687***	0.933***
	(0.072)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.098)
Observations	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	11,002	10,949
R2	0.042	0.087	0.087	0.087	0.087	0.116
Adjusted R2	0.041	0.085	0.085	0.086	0.086	0.112
Residual Std. Error	0.920 (df = 10989)	0.898 (df = 10983)	0.898 (df = 10982)	0.898 (df = 10982)	0.898 (df = 10982)	0.887 (df = 10904)
F Statistic	40.178*** (df = 12; 10989)	58.089*** (df = 18; 10983)	55.074*** (df = 19; 10982)	55.411*** (df = 19; 10982)	55.395*** (df = 19; 10982)	32.498*** (df = 44; 10904)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = 0.2147

List of states with their averages and value-added (Math)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	185.950	-0.634	-0.053	0.161
AL	170.793	-1.290	-0.036	0.178
AM	187.397	-0.537	-0.482	-0.267
AP	173.393	-0.403	-0.462	-0.248
BA	180.427	-0.912	-0.211	0.003
CE	190.285	-1.138	0.144	0.359
ES	210.409	-0.162	-0.311	-0.097
GO	200.148	-0.342	0.000	0.215
MA	169.630	-1.290	-0.138	0.076
MG	215.500	-0.587	-0.349	-0.135
MS	195.399	-0.290	-0.145	0.070
MT	190.900	-0.260	-0.309	-0.095
PA	176.603	-0.769	-0.307	-0.092
PB	185.522	-1.015	-0.305	-0.091
PE	182.940	-0.981	0.039	0.253
PI	181.280	-1.213	0.010	0.225
PR	202.552	-0.225	-0.607	-0.392
RJ	221.618	-0.288	-0.538	-0.324
RN	177.634	-0.761	-0.018	0.197
RO	195.002	-0.308	-0.176	0.039
RR	176.824	-0.393	-0.062	0.153
RS	196.296	-0.264	-0.317	-0.102
SC	196.425	-0.112	-0.561	-0.346
SE	178.198	-0.929	-0.003	0.212
SP	210.935	-0.240	-0.726	-0.512
TO	189.195	-0.620	-0.045	0.170

---

Black/Brown students TOP SES

Reading - Black/Brown TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.299***	-0.262***	-0.260***	-0.262***	-0.262***	-0.282***
	(0.062)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.060)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.090	-0.039	-0.042	-0.038	-0.038	-0.090
	(0.063)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.202**	-0.129*	-0.144*	-0.133*	-0.131*	-0.189**
	(0.064)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.062)
RACA_PRETO	1.051***	0.293	0.477	0.245	0.255	0.178
	(0.313)	(0.307)	(0.309)	(0.307)	(0.307)	(0.316)
NSE_AVG	0.016	0.025	0.016	0.013	0.018	0.035
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.036)
SEXO_M	-1.437***	-0.868***	-0.846***	-0.854***	-0.861***	-0.788***
	(0.116)	(0.115)	(0.115)	(0.115)	(0.115)	(0.115)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.004	0.002	0.002	0.003	0.010
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		0.109***	0.107***	0.109***	0.109***	0.025
		(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.018)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.0003	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002	0.0001
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
proportion_estadual		-0.208***	-0.193***	-0.199***	-0.203***	-0.164***
		(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.026)
avg_index_violence		-0.029***	-0.026**	-0.028***	-0.029***	-0.033***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
DROP_OUT_RATE		1.320***	1.299***	1.318***	1.320***	1.205***
		(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.067)	(0.070)
kl_raca			0.036***
			(0.008)
kl_NSE				0.021*
				(0.008)
kl_raca_ses					0.012	0.003
					(0.008)	(0.008)
UfAC						-0.146
						(0.204)
UfAM						-0.123
						(0.156)
UfAP						-0.369
						(0.202)
UfBA						-0.044
						(0.105)
UfCE						-0.368
						(0.548)
UfDF						-0.837*
						(0.391)
UfES						-0.360***
						(0.061)
UfMA						-0.005
						(0.348)
UfMG						-0.456***
						(0.035)
UfMS						-0.068
						(0.055)
UfMT						-0.283***
						(0.049)
UfPA						-0.262
						(0.169)
UfPB						-0.281
						(0.181)
UfPE						0.224
						(0.164)
UfPI						0.190
						(0.774)
UfPR						-0.466***
						(0.038)
UfRJ						-0.423***
						(0.055)
UfRN						0.189
						(0.143)
UfRO						-0.044
						(0.088)
UfRR						-0.419*
						(0.192)
UfRS						-0.322***
						(0.039)
UfSC						-0.287***
						(0.041)
UfSE						-0.209
						(0.388)
UfSP						-0.474***
						(0.035)
UfTO						-0.054
						(0.091)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-1.561***	-1.400***	-1.431***	-1.395***	-1.397***	-1.387***
	(0.421)	(0.408)	(0.408)	(0.408)	(0.408)	(0.403)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-2.061***	-1.778***	-1.796***	-1.755***	-1.764***	-1.616***
	(0.401)	(0.390)	(0.389)	(0.390)	(0.390)	(0.385)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-1.471***	-1.146**	-1.122**	-1.106**	-1.121**	-0.914*
	(0.406)	(0.394)	(0.394)	(0.395)	(0.395)	(0.390)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.047	0.049	0.046	0.051	0.050	0.065
	(0.048)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.046)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.054	-0.075	-0.074	-0.074	-0.074	-0.038
	(0.049)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.047)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.046	-0.065	-0.062	-0.063	-0.063	-0.029
	(0.050)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)
Constant	0.614***	0.361***	0.339***	0.364***	0.363***	0.632***
	(0.071)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.079)
Observations	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995
R2	0.051	0.109	0.111	0.110	0.109	0.137
Adjusted R2	0.050	0.108	0.109	0.108	0.108	0.133
Residual Std. Error	0.809 (df = 10982)	0.784 (df = 10976)	0.783 (df = 10975)	0.784 (df = 10975)	0.784 (df = 10975)	0.773 (df = 10950)
F Statistic	48.958*** (df = 12; 10982)	74.721*** (df = 18; 10976)	72.084*** (df = 19; 10975)	71.164*** (df = 19; 10975)	70.938*** (df = 19; 10975)	39.370*** (df = 44; 10950)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = -0.256

List of states with their averages and value-added (Reading)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	186.382	0.369	-0.146	-0.402
AM	181.469	0.291	-0.123	-0.379
AP	165.271	0.484	-0.369	-0.625
BA	174.129	0.210	-0.044	-0.300
CE	209.488	0.209	-0.368	-0.624
DF	201.263	1.293	-0.837	-1.093
ES	192.722	0.558	-0.360	-0.616
GO	191.768	0.544	0.000	-0.256
MA	174.516	0.133	-0.005	-0.261
MG	201.942	0.641	-0.456	-0.712
MS	186.139	0.741	-0.068	-0.324
MT	183.939	0.508	-0.283	-0.539
PA	175.685	0.256	-0.262	-0.518
PB	179.126	0.224	-0.281	-0.537
PE	175.828	0.447	0.224	-0.032
PI	176.196	0.182	0.190	-0.066
PR	190.958	0.843	-0.466	-0.722
RJ	189.055	0.804	-0.423	-0.679
RN	173.884	0.225	0.189	-0.067
RO	185.152	0.391	-0.044	-0.300
RR	173.131	0.514	-0.419	-0.675
RS	187.995	1.286	-0.322	-0.578
SC	188.479	1.204	-0.287	-0.543
SE	169.611	0.116	-0.209	-0.465
SP	193.304	0.947	-0.474	-0.729
TO	183.704	0.339	-0.054	-0.310

---

Math - Black/Brown TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.686***	-0.670***	-0.668***	-0.669***	-0.669***	-0.692***
	(0.063)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.062)	(0.060)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.453***	-0.420***	-0.423***	-0.419***	-0.419***	-0.502***
	(0.065)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.062)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.543***	-0.484***	-0.501***	-0.490***	-0.488***	-0.598***
	(0.065)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.063)	(0.062)
RACA_PRETO	0.928**	0.064	0.271	-0.004	0.006	-0.211
	(0.320)	(0.310)	(0.312)	(0.310)	(0.311)	(0.316)
NSE_AVG	0.050	0.055	0.044	0.037	0.044	0.039
	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.036)
SEXO_M	-0.975***	-0.324**	-0.300**	-0.304**	-0.314**	-0.136
	(0.119)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.115)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.039***	0.036**	0.036**	0.037**	0.029*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		0.163***	0.161***	0.162***	0.163***	0.034
		(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.016)	(0.018)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.0003	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002	0.0002
		(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)	(0.0003)
proportion_estadual		-0.272***	-0.256***	-0.260***	-0.264***	-0.216***
		(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.025)	(0.025)	(0.026)
avg_index_violence		-0.018*	-0.016	-0.018*	-0.018*	-0.017*
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
DROP_OUT_RATE		1.378***	1.355***	1.374***	1.377***	1.103***
		(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.068)	(0.070)
kl_raca			0.040***
			(0.008)
kl_NSE				0.029***
				(0.008)
kl_raca_ses					0.019*	0.002
					(0.008)	(0.008)
UfAC						-0.091
						(0.203)
UfAM						-0.316*
						(0.156)
UfAP						-0.346
						(0.202)
UfBA						0.038
						(0.105)
UfCE						-0.397
						(0.547)
UfDF						-0.731
						(0.390)
UfES						-0.191**
						(0.061)
UfMA						-0.003
						(0.348)
UfMG						-0.441***
						(0.035)
UfMS						-0.072
						(0.055)
UfMT						-0.175***
						(0.049)
UfPA						-0.262
						(0.169)
UfPB						-0.256
						(0.180)
UfPE						0.267
						(0.164)
UfPI						0.554
						(0.773)
UfPR						-0.520***
						(0.038)
UfRJ						-0.379***
						(0.055)
UfRN						0.156
						(0.143)
UfRO						0.027
						(0.088)
UfRR						-0.195
						(0.192)
UfRS						-0.263***
						(0.039)
UfSC						-0.208***
						(0.041)
UfSE						0.462
						(0.388)
UfSP						-0.625***
						(0.035)
UfTO						0.104
						(0.090)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.600	-0.436	-0.470	-0.429	-0.431	-0.504
	(0.430)	(0.412)	(0.412)	(0.412)	(0.412)	(0.402)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-1.412***	-1.135**	-1.155**	-1.102**	-1.112**	-0.943*
	(0.410)	(0.394)	(0.393)	(0.394)	(0.394)	(0.384)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-1.273**	-0.972*	-0.945*	-0.915*	-0.934*	-0.604
	(0.415)	(0.399)	(0.398)	(0.399)	(0.399)	(0.389)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.070	0.079	0.076	0.082	0.080	0.095*
	(0.049)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.047)	(0.046)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.091	-0.105*	-0.104*	-0.103*	-0.103*	-0.043
	(0.051)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.048)	(0.047)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.120*	-0.129**	-0.126**	-0.127**	-0.127**	-0.063
	(0.051)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.049)	(0.048)
Constant	0.583***	0.391***	0.366***	0.395***	0.393***	0.646***
	(0.072)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.079)
Observations	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995	10,995
R2	0.120	0.192	0.194	0.193	0.192	0.236
Adjusted R2	0.119	0.191	0.193	0.191	0.191	0.233
Residual Std. Error	0.827 (df = 10982)	0.793 (df = 10976)	0.792 (df = 10975)	0.792 (df = 10975)	0.792 (df = 10975)	0.772 (df = 10950)
F Statistic	124.745*** (df = 12; 10982)	144.857*** (df = 18; 10976)	139.001*** (df = 19; 10975)	138.051*** (df = 19; 10975)	137.622*** (df = 19; 10975)	76.852*** (df = 44; 10950)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = -0.3057

List of states with their averages and value-added (Math)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	200.036	0.369	-0.091	-0.397
AM	198.450	0.291	-0.316	-0.621
AP	178.906	0.484	-0.346	-0.652
BA	188.936	0.210	0.038	-0.268
CE	223.676	0.209	-0.397	-0.703
DF	220.294	1.293	-0.731	-1.037
ES	211.897	0.558	-0.191	-0.497
GO	209.618	0.544	0.000	-0.306
MA	187.205	0.133	-0.003	-0.309
MG	224.729	0.641	-0.441	-0.747
MS	204.031	0.741	-0.072	-0.378
MT	200.710	0.508	-0.175	-0.480
PA	189.405	0.256	-0.262	-0.568
PB	195.244	0.224	-0.256	-0.562
PE	192.539	0.447	0.267	-0.039
PI	190.181	0.182	0.554	0.249
PR	214.471	0.843	-0.520	-0.825
RJ	206.989	0.804	-0.379	-0.684
RN	192.250	0.225	0.156	-0.150
RO	204.201	0.391	0.027	-0.279
RR	186.448	0.514	-0.195	-0.501
RS	207.602	1.286	-0.263	-0.569
SC	207.843	1.204	-0.208	-0.514
SE	180.769	0.116	0.462	0.156
SP	217.799	0.947	-0.625	-0.931
TO	199.657	0.339	0.104	-0.202

---

Black/Brown students BOTTOM SES

Reading - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.319***	-0.318***	-0.318***	-0.318***	-0.318***	-0.358***
	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.284***	-0.268***	-0.268***	-0.269***	-0.271***	-0.322***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.386***	-0.342***	-0.343***	-0.342***	-0.342***	-0.404***
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
RACA_PRETO	-0.510**	-0.658***	-0.646***	-0.658***	-0.661***	-0.693***
	(0.174)	(0.168)	(0.168)	(0.168)	(0.168)	(0.174)
NSE_AVG	0.163***	0.286***	0.287***	0.284***	0.284***	0.362***
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.022)
SEXO_M	-1.429***	-0.840***	-0.842***	-0.839***	-0.831***	-0.877***
	(0.095)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.093)	(0.094)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.012	-0.012	-0.011	-0.011	-0.020**
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.047***	-0.047***	-0.046***	-0.045***	-0.018*
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.008)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.002*	0.002	0.002*	0.002**	0.0004
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
proportion_estadual		-0.340***	-0.339***	-0.340***	-0.341***	-0.207***
		(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.029)
avg_index_violence		-0.038***	-0.037***	-0.038***	-0.039***	-0.042***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.934***	0.933***	0.934***	0.933***	0.935***
		(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.046)
kl_raca			0.005
			(0.007)
kl_NSE				-0.005
				(0.007)
kl_raca_ses					-0.019**	-0.013
					(0.007)	(0.007)
UfAC						0.057
						(0.088)
UfAL						0.072
						(0.058)
UfAM						-0.195**
						(0.062)
UfAP						-0.244*
						(0.102)
UfBA						-0.114*
						(0.051)
UfCE						0.215***
						(0.054)
UfES						-0.248**
						(0.081)
UfMA						-0.035
						(0.054)
UfMG						-0.178***
						(0.044)
UfMS						-0.198
						(0.149)
UfMT						-0.267***
						(0.065)
UfPA						-0.269***
						(0.055)
UfPB						-0.163**
						(0.050)
UfPE						0.103*
						(0.051)
UfPI						-0.024
						(0.052)
UfPR						-0.429***
						(0.067)
UfRJ						-0.487**
						(0.163)
UfRN						0.116*
						(0.052)
UfRO						0.080
						(0.073)
UfRR						-0.272*
						(0.109)
UfRS						-0.258**
						(0.090)
UfSC						-0.642***
						(0.145)
UfSE						0.007
						(0.059)
UfSP						-0.401***
						(0.077)
UfTO						-0.042
						(0.051)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.315	-0.207	-0.211	-0.207	-0.205	-0.080
	(0.246)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.237)	(0.234)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.055	0.024	0.020	0.025	0.034	0.171
	(0.239)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.230)	(0.227)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.795***	0.844***	0.841***	0.846***	0.847***	1.001***
	(0.238)	(0.229)	(0.229)	(0.229)	(0.229)	(0.227)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.193***	-0.190***	-0.190***	-0.190***	-0.189***	-0.200***
	(0.032)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.278***	-0.253***	-0.253***	-0.253***	-0.254***	-0.271***
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.033)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.378***	-0.348***	-0.348***	-0.348***	-0.349***	-0.386***
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)
Constant	0.984***	0.684***	0.685***	0.682***	0.676***	0.798***
	(0.054)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.072)
Observations	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,947
R2	0.048	0.121	0.121	0.121	0.121	0.154
Adjusted R2	0.047	0.119	0.119	0.119	0.120	0.151
Residual Std. Error	0.688 (df = 10983)	0.661 (df = 10977)	0.662 (df = 10976)	0.662 (df = 10976)	0.661 (df = 10976)	0.651 (df = 10902)
F Statistic	45.774*** (df = 12; 10983)	83.690*** (df = 18; 10977)	79.311*** (df = 19; 10976)	79.309*** (df = 19; 10976)	79.684*** (df = 19; 10976)	45.223*** (df = 44; 10902)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = 0.0894

List of states with their averages and value-added (Reading)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	173.991	-0.634	0.057	0.146
AL	155.933	-1.290	0.072	0.161
AM	173.500	-0.537	-0.195	-0.105
AP	159.293	-0.401	-0.244	-0.155
BA	165.561	-0.914	-0.114	-0.024
CE	176.766	-1.139	0.215	0.304
ES	183.360	-0.162	-0.248	-0.158
GO	181.037	-0.343	0.000	0.089
MA	157.926	-1.290	-0.035	0.054
MG	189.125	-0.590	-0.178	-0.089
MS	176.654	-0.290	-0.198	-0.108
MT	171.373	-0.255	-0.267	-0.178
PA	164.952	-0.767	-0.269	-0.179
PB	167.362	-1.014	-0.163	-0.073
PE	165.645	-0.981	0.103	0.192
PI	165.653	-1.211	-0.024	0.065
PR	177.117	-0.229	-0.429	-0.340
RJ	188.291	-0.288	-0.487	-0.397
RN	160.993	-0.760	0.116	0.205
RO	175.078	-0.308	0.080	0.169
RR	165.450	-0.431	-0.272	-0.183
RS	176.626	-0.273	-0.258	-0.168
SC	173.726	-0.116	-0.642	-0.553
SE	163.330	-0.930	0.007	0.097
SP	179.837	-0.243	-0.401	-0.311
TO	171.594	-0.619	-0.042	0.048

---

Math - Black/Brown BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.613***	-0.632***	-0.633***	-0.632***	-0.632***	-0.683***
	(0.045)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)	(0.044)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.636***	-0.642***	-0.642***	-0.642***	-0.644***	-0.708***
	(0.046)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)	(0.045)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.846***	-0.821***	-0.822***	-0.821***	-0.821***	-0.894***
	(0.047)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)	(0.046)
RACA_PRETO	-0.799***	-0.968***	-0.952***	-0.967***	-0.970***	-1.183***
	(0.177)	(0.170)	(0.171)	(0.170)	(0.170)	(0.176)
NSE_AVG	0.183***	0.320***	0.321***	0.322***	0.319***	0.417***
	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.022)	(0.021)	(0.022)
SEXO_M	-0.420***	0.186	0.184	0.185	0.191*	0.196*
	(0.096)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.095)	(0.095)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.016*	-0.016*	-0.016*	-0.015*	-0.013
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.044***	-0.044***	-0.044***	-0.043***	-0.013
		(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.007)	(0.008)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	-0.0004
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
proportion_estadual		-0.409***	-0.408***	-0.408***	-0.410***	-0.230***
		(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.021)	(0.029)
avg_index_violence		-0.025**	-0.025**	-0.025**	-0.026**	-0.030***
		(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)	(0.008)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.891***	0.890***	0.891***	0.891***	0.861***
		(0.043)	(0.044)	(0.043)	(0.043)	(0.046)
kl_raca			0.007
			(0.007)
kl_NSE				0.004
				(0.007)
kl_raca_ses					-0.011	-0.002
					(0.007)	(0.007)
UfAC						0.185*
						(0.089)
UfAL						0.162**
						(0.059)
UfAM						-0.352***
						(0.062)
UfAP						-0.232*
						(0.103)
UfBA						-0.034
						(0.051)
UfCE						0.232***
						(0.055)
UfES						-0.209*
						(0.082)
UfMA						-0.073
						(0.055)
UfMG						-0.208***
						(0.045)
UfMS						-0.176
						(0.150)
UfMT						-0.223***
						(0.066)
UfPA						-0.244***
						(0.056)
UfPB						-0.128*
						(0.050)
UfPE						0.154**
						(0.052)
UfPI						0.117*
						(0.053)
UfPR						-0.447***
						(0.068)
UfRJ						-0.235
						(0.165)
UfRN						0.147**
						(0.052)
UfRO						0.077
						(0.074)
UfRR						-0.107
						(0.110)
UfRS						-0.114
						(0.090)
UfSC						-0.413**
						(0.147)
UfSE						0.152*
						(0.060)
UfSP						-0.633***
						(0.078)
UfTO						0.062
						(0.051)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	0.034	0.134	0.129	0.134	0.135	0.288
	(0.251)	(0.241)	(0.241)	(0.241)	(0.241)	(0.236)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	0.461	0.527*	0.521*	0.526*	0.533*	0.695**
	(0.243)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.229)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	1.015***	1.036***	1.032***	1.035***	1.038***	1.198***
	(0.242)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.233)	(0.229)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.270***	-0.267***	-0.268***	-0.267***	-0.267***	-0.282***
	(0.033)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)	(0.031)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.403***	-0.377***	-0.377***	-0.377***	-0.378***	-0.402***
	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.497***	-0.464***	-0.464***	-0.464***	-0.465***	-0.510***
	(0.036)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.035)	(0.034)
Constant	0.783***	0.552***	0.553***	0.554***	0.547***	0.637***
	(0.055)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.073)
Observations	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,996	10,947
R2	0.067	0.142	0.142	0.142	0.142	0.186
Adjusted R2	0.066	0.141	0.141	0.141	0.141	0.183
Residual Std. Error	0.700 (df = 10983)	0.672 (df = 10977)	0.672 (df = 10976)	0.672 (df = 10976)	0.672 (df = 10976)	0.656 (df = 10902)
F Statistic	65.492*** (df = 12; 10983)	101.131*** (df = 18; 10977)	95.856*** (df = 19; 10976)	95.823*** (df = 19; 10976)	95.932*** (df = 19; 10976)	56.723*** (df = 44; 10902)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = 0.1225

List of states with their averages and value-added (Math)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	188.129	-0.634	0.185	0.307
AL	172.366	-1.290	0.162	0.285
AM	191.672	-0.537	-0.352	-0.230
AP	174.694	-0.401	-0.232	-0.110
BA	182.380	-0.914	-0.034	0.088
CE	191.680	-1.139	0.232	0.355
ES	204.235	-0.162	-0.209	-0.086
GO	198.807	-0.343	0.000	0.122
MA	173.012	-1.290	-0.073	0.050
MG	210.911	-0.590	-0.208	-0.086
MS	195.363	-0.290	-0.176	-0.054
MT	189.202	-0.255	-0.223	-0.100
PA	179.996	-0.767	-0.244	-0.122
PB	184.972	-1.014	-0.128	-0.006
PE	183.671	-0.981	0.154	0.276
PI	182.023	-1.211	0.117	0.239
PR	197.729	-0.229	-0.447	-0.325
RJ	210.688	-0.288	-0.235	-0.112
RN	177.423	-0.760	0.147	0.269
RO	194.937	-0.308	0.077	0.200
RR	179.878	-0.431	-0.107	0.016
RS	190.295	-0.273	-0.114	0.009
SC	191.783	-0.116	-0.413	-0.291
SE	181.138	-0.930	0.152	0.274
SP	202.748	-0.243	-0.633	-0.510
TO	188.226	-0.619	0.062	0.185

---

Black students TOP SES

Reading - Black TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.367***	-0.363***	-0.363***	-0.361***	-0.361***	-0.391***
	(0.102)	(0.103)	(0.103)	(0.103)	(0.103)	(0.102)
COHORT2011-2015	0.124	0.140	0.140	0.143	0.143	0.078
	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)	(0.105)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.032	0.017	0.018	0.014	0.014	-0.055
	(0.106)	(0.106)	(0.107)	(0.106)	(0.106)	(0.106)
RACA_PRETO	0.975	0.251	0.249	0.221	0.216	-0.106
	(0.535)	(0.536)	(0.536)	(0.536)	(0.536)	(0.558)
NSE_AVG	0.041	0.059	0.059	0.045	0.047	0.138*
	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.057)	(0.058)	(0.058)	(0.060)
SEXO_M	-1.461***	-0.952***	-0.953***	-0.929***	-0.937***	-0.822***
	(0.200)	(0.202)	(0.202)	(0.202)	(0.202)	(0.204)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.004	-0.004	-0.007	-0.006	-0.007
		(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.019)	(0.021)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		0.080**	0.080**	0.079**	0.080**	0.024
		(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.026)	(0.030)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.0003	0.0003	0.0002	0.0002	0.0001
		(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
proportion_estadual		-0.143***	-0.144***	-0.131**	-0.134**	-0.112*
		(0.040)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.041)	(0.044)
avg_index_violence		-0.015	-0.015	-0.014	-0.014	-0.023
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
DROP_OUT_RATE		1.345***	1.345***	1.347***	1.349***	1.298***
		(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.116)	(0.124)
kl_raca			-0.001
			(0.013)
kl_NSE				0.027
				(0.014)
kl_raca_ses					0.021	0.014
					(0.013)	(0.013)
UfAC						-0.019
						(0.323)
UfAM						-0.272
						(0.239)
UfAP						-0.298
						(0.321)
UfBA						-0.131
						(0.168)
UfCE						-0.235
						(0.754)
UfDF						-0.965
						(0.658)
UfES						-0.233*
						(0.101)
UfMA						-0.276
						(0.496)
UfMG						-0.490***
						(0.059)
UfMS						-0.110
						(0.092)
UfMT						-0.376***
						(0.081)
UfPA						-0.116
						(0.255)
UfPB						-0.572
						(0.304)
UfPE						0.024
						(0.248)
UfPI						1.131
						(0.756)
UfPR						-0.523***
						(0.064)
UfRJ						-0.543***
						(0.092)
UfRN						0.047
						(0.224)
UfRO						-0.089
						(0.143)
UfRR						-0.332
						(0.306)
UfRS						-0.509***
						(0.067)
UfSC						-0.487***
						(0.069)
UfSE						-0.463
						(0.535)
UfSP						-0.533***
						(0.059)
UfTO						0.094
						(0.143)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.874	-0.651	-0.651	-0.651	-0.653	-0.608
	(0.715)	(0.709)	(0.709)	(0.709)	(0.709)	(0.706)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-2.528***	-2.166**	-2.166**	-2.148**	-2.154**	-1.930**
	(0.686)	(0.682)	(0.682)	(0.682)	(0.682)	(0.679)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-2.430***	-2.042**	-2.044**	-2.008**	-2.015**	-1.781**
	(0.693)	(0.688)	(0.688)	(0.688)	(0.688)	(0.686)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	0.030	0.041	0.041	0.043	0.042	0.062
	(0.079)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.212**	-0.227**	-0.227**	-0.226**	-0.226**	-0.191*
	(0.081)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.037	-0.060	-0.060	-0.057	-0.056	-0.013
	(0.082)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)	(0.081)
Constant	0.750***	0.454***	0.454***	0.448***	0.449***	0.756***
	(0.121)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.130)	(0.136)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777
R2	0.021	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.053
Adjusted R2	0.020	0.037	0.037	0.038	0.038	0.049
Residual Std. Error	1.321 (df = 10764)	1.309 (df = 10758)	1.309 (df = 10757)	1.309 (df = 10757)	1.309 (df = 10757)	1.301 (df = 10732)
F Statistic	19.031*** (df = 12; 10764)	24.280*** (df = 18; 10758)	23.000*** (df = 19; 10757)	23.205*** (df = 19; 10757)	23.151*** (df = 19; 10757)	13.566*** (df = 44; 10732)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = -0.0894

List of states with their averages and value-added (Reading)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	179.150	0.329	-0.019	-0.109
AM	170.126	0.242	-0.272	-0.361
AP	156.777	0.382	-0.298	-0.387
BA	168.828	0.190	-0.131	-0.221
CE	192.806	0.151	-0.235	-0.324
DF	193.721	1.293	-0.965	-1.054
ES	181.710	0.531	-0.233	-0.323
GO	180.223	0.522	0.000	-0.089
MA	162.414	0.106	-0.276	-0.365
MG	189.985	0.624	-0.490	-0.579
MS	176.559	0.734	-0.110	-0.200
MT	172.732	0.484	-0.376	-0.465
PA	168.144	0.210	-0.116	-0.205
PB	165.741	0.210	-0.572	-0.661
PE	166.117	0.365	0.024	-0.065
PI	173.401	0.091	1.131	1.042
PR	177.836	0.824	-0.523	-0.613
RJ	182.776	0.800	-0.543	-0.632
RN	164.315	0.190	0.047	-0.042
RO	174.219	0.364	-0.089	-0.179
RR	163.990	0.465	-0.332	-0.422
RS	176.925	1.254	-0.509	-0.598
SC	175.916	1.179	-0.487	-0.576
SE	159.776	0.099	-0.463	-0.552
SP	180.997	0.937	-0.533	-0.623
TO	172.303	0.285	0.094	0.005

---

Math - Black TOP SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.527***	-0.547***	-0.547***	-0.544***	-0.544***	-0.574***
	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.096)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.045	-0.043	-0.044	-0.040	-0.039	-0.131
	(0.100)	(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.099)	(0.099)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.309**	-0.274**	-0.281**	-0.278**	-0.279**	-0.383***
	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.100)
RACA_PRETO	1.355**	0.545	0.572	0.503	0.491	0.205
	(0.507)	(0.505)	(0.506)	(0.505)	(0.505)	(0.525)
NSE_AVG	0.131*	0.147**	0.143**	0.127*	0.128*	0.195***
	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.054)	(0.056)
SEXO_M	-1.157***	-0.570**	-0.557**	-0.539**	-0.546**	-0.385*
	(0.190)	(0.191)	(0.191)	(0.191)	(0.191)	(0.192)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		0.041*	0.040*	0.036*	0.036*	0.048*
		(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.018)	(0.020)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		0.106***	0.105***	0.104***	0.105***	-0.002
		(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.024)	(0.028)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.0003	0.0002	0.0001	0.0001	-0.0001
		(0.0004)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)	(0.0005)
proportion_estadual		-0.210***	-0.203***	-0.194***	-0.195***	-0.184***
		(0.038)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.039)	(0.041)
avg_index_violence		-0.003	-0.002	-0.002	-0.003	-0.011
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
DROP_OUT_RATE		1.377***	1.376***	1.380***	1.384***	1.256***
		(0.109)	(0.109)	(0.109)	(0.109)	(0.116)
kl_raca			0.015
			(0.013)
kl_NSE				0.037**
				(0.013)
kl_raca_ses					0.033**	0.019
					(0.012)	(0.012)
UfAC						-0.014
						(0.303)
UfAM						-0.420
						(0.224)
UfAP						-0.174
						(0.302)
UfBA						-0.037
						(0.158)
UfCE						-0.044
						(0.709)
UfDF						-0.868
						(0.619)
UfES						-0.253**
						(0.095)
UfMA						0.200
						(0.467)
UfMG						-0.504***
						(0.055)
UfMS						-0.132
						(0.087)
UfMT						-0.233**
						(0.076)
UfPA						-0.246
						(0.240)
UfPB						-0.161
						(0.286)
UfPE						0.231
						(0.233)
UfPI						0.453
						(0.711)
UfPR						-0.478***
						(0.060)
UfRJ						-0.522***
						(0.086)
UfRN						0.053
						(0.211)
UfRO						0.056
						(0.135)
UfRR						-0.047
						(0.288)
UfRS						-0.469***
						(0.063)
UfSC						-0.327***
						(0.065)
UfSE						0.365
						(0.503)
UfSP						-0.622***
						(0.056)
UfTO						0.048
						(0.135)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.918	-0.691	-0.697	-0.692	-0.694	-0.686
	(0.678)	(0.669)	(0.669)	(0.668)	(0.668)	(0.663)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-2.888***	-2.578***	-2.574***	-2.553***	-2.560***	-2.299***
	(0.651)	(0.643)	(0.643)	(0.643)	(0.643)	(0.639)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	-2.601***	-2.265***	-2.237***	-2.219***	-2.223***	-1.858**
	(0.656)	(0.649)	(0.649)	(0.649)	(0.649)	(0.645)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.070	-0.051	-0.052	-0.049	-0.049	-0.028
	(0.075)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.073)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.280***	-0.289***	-0.288***	-0.287***	-0.286***	-0.228**
	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.075)	(0.075)	(0.075)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.135	-0.149	-0.147	-0.146	-0.144	-0.078
	(0.077)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)
Constant	0.728***	0.487***	0.479***	0.480***	0.480***	0.768***
	(0.114)	(0.122)	(0.123)	(0.122)	(0.122)	(0.128)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777
R2	0.049	0.075	0.075	0.076	0.076	0.094
Adjusted R2	0.048	0.074	0.074	0.074	0.074	0.091
Residual Std. Error	1.252 (df = 10764)	1.235 (df = 10758)	1.235 (df = 10757)	1.235 (df = 10757)	1.235 (df = 10757)	1.224 (df = 10732)
F Statistic	46.387*** (df = 12; 10764)	48.704*** (df = 18; 10758)	46.213*** (df = 19; 10757)	46.597*** (df = 19; 10757)	46.563*** (df = 19; 10757)	25.380*** (df = 44; 10732)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = -0.0823

List of states with their averages and value-added (Math)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	192.637	0.329	-0.014	-0.097
AM	188.484	0.242	-0.420	-0.502
AP	170.910	0.382	-0.174	-0.256
BA	182.594	0.190	-0.037	-0.119
CE	203.109	0.151	-0.044	-0.127
DF	212.850	1.293	-0.868	-0.950
ES	199.997	0.531	-0.253	-0.336
GO	197.716	0.522	0.000	-0.082
MA	174.963	0.106	0.200	0.117
MG	210.776	0.624	-0.504	-0.586
MS	195.144	0.734	-0.132	-0.214
MT	189.023	0.484	-0.233	-0.315
PA	182.412	0.210	-0.246	-0.329
PB	182.881	0.210	-0.161	-0.243
PE	183.672	0.365	0.231	0.149
PI	190.883	0.091	0.453	0.371
PR	200.664	0.824	-0.478	-0.560
RJ	199.241	0.800	-0.522	-0.604
RN	181.524	0.190	0.053	-0.030
RO	193.824	0.364	0.056	-0.026
RR	177.329	0.465	-0.047	-0.129
RS	195.172	1.254	-0.469	-0.551
SC	194.402	1.179	-0.327	-0.409
SE	178.382	0.099	0.365	0.282
SP	203.875	0.937	-0.622	-0.704
TO	189.256	0.285	0.048	-0.034

---

Black students BOTTOM SES

Reading - Black BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.324***	-0.312***	-0.312***	-0.312***	-0.312***	-0.349***
	(0.077)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.078)	(0.079)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.280***	-0.254**	-0.254**	-0.254**	-0.257**	-0.306***
	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.080)	(0.082)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.215**	-0.169*	-0.169*	-0.169*	-0.169*	-0.237**
	(0.081)	(0.082)	(0.082)	(0.082)	(0.082)	(0.083)
RACA_PRETO	-0.144	-0.294	-0.290	-0.294	-0.302	-0.410
	(0.297)	(0.294)	(0.295)	(0.294)	(0.294)	(0.310)
NSE_AVG	0.174***	0.262***	0.263***	0.263***	0.261***	0.337***
	(0.036)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.037)	(0.039)
SEXO_M	-1.474***	-0.942***	-0.944***	-0.943***	-0.934***	-1.056***
	(0.162)	(0.165)	(0.165)	(0.165)	(0.165)	(0.168)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.005	-0.006	-0.005	-0.005	-0.014
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.013)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.065***	-0.065***	-0.065***	-0.064***	-0.042**
		(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.012)	(0.014)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.003	0.003	0.003	0.003*	0.001
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.002)	(0.002)
proportion_estadual		-0.297***	-0.297***	-0.297***	-0.299***	-0.227***
		(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.052)
avg_index_violence		-0.043**	-0.043**	-0.043**	-0.044**	-0.045**
		(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)	(0.014)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.889***	0.889***	0.889***	0.889***	0.964***
		(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.083)
kl_raca			0.003
			(0.012)
kl_NSE				0.001
				(0.012)
kl_raca_ses					-0.016	-0.010
					(0.013)	(0.013)
UfAC						-0.076
						(0.157)
UfAL						-0.062
						(0.104)
UfAM						-0.383***
						(0.111)
UfAP						-0.295
						(0.183)
UfBA						-0.156
						(0.092)
UfCE						0.208*
						(0.098)
UfES						-0.147
						(0.151)
UfMA						-0.002
						(0.097)
UfMG						-0.115
						(0.081)
UfMS						0.064
						(0.260)
UfMT						-0.310**
						(0.120)
UfPA						-0.237*
						(0.099)
UfPB						-0.239**
						(0.090)
UfPE						0.004
						(0.093)
UfPI						-0.086
						(0.094)
UfPR						-0.369**
						(0.119)
UfRJ						-0.456
						(0.303)
UfRN						0.006
						(0.094)
UfRO						-0.001
						(0.133)
UfRR						-0.067
						(0.197)
UfRS						-0.476**
						(0.153)
UfSC						-0.305
						(0.249)
UfSE						-0.098
						(0.106)
UfSP						-0.471***
						(0.137)
UfTO						0.080
						(0.092)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.627	-0.501	-0.503	-0.501	-0.501	-0.381
	(0.421)	(0.417)	(0.417)	(0.417)	(0.417)	(0.417)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.496	-0.386	-0.388	-0.386	-0.377	-0.235
	(0.408)	(0.404)	(0.404)	(0.404)	(0.404)	(0.405)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.045	0.157	0.156	0.157	0.163	0.350
	(0.407)	(0.403)	(0.403)	(0.403)	(0.403)	(0.404)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.176**	-0.174**	-0.174**	-0.174**	-0.173**	-0.182***
	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.322***	-0.296***	-0.296***	-0.296***	-0.297***	-0.312***
	(0.060)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.059)	(0.060)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.240***	-0.204***	-0.203***	-0.204***	-0.205***	-0.246***
	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)	(0.061)
Constant	1.141***	0.832***	0.833***	0.833***	0.825***	1.019***
	(0.092)	(0.101)	(0.101)	(0.101)	(0.101)	(0.131)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,723
R2	0.018	0.041	0.041	0.041	0.041	0.054
Adjusted R2	0.017	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.039	0.050
Residual Std. Error	1.150 (df = 10764)	1.136 (df = 10758)	1.136 (df = 10757)	1.136 (df = 10757)	1.136 (df = 10757)	1.133 (df = 10678)
F Statistic	16.432*** (df = 12; 10764)	25.537*** (df = 18; 10758)	24.196*** (df = 19; 10757)	24.191*** (df = 19; 10757)	24.280*** (df = 19; 10757)	13.772*** (df = 44; 10678)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = 0.2348

List of states with their averages and value-added (Reading)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	168.856	-0.647	-0.076	0.159
AL	149.690	-1.294	-0.062	0.173
AM	164.194	-0.559	-0.383	-0.148
AP	154.002	-0.464	-0.295	-0.061
BA	160.016	-0.919	-0.156	0.078
CE	164.872	-1.145	0.208	0.443
ES	171.514	-0.202	-0.147	0.088
GO	170.770	-0.417	0.000	0.235
MA	150.468	-1.294	-0.002	0.233
MG	177.917	-0.619	-0.115	0.120
MS	161.804	-0.318	0.064	0.299
MT	163.467	-0.311	-0.310	-0.075
PA	158.799	-0.775	-0.237	-0.002
PB	158.683	-1.035	-0.239	-0.005
PE	157.293	-0.992	0.004	0.238
PI	158.513	-1.229	-0.086	0.148
PR	167.691	-0.304	-0.369	-0.134
RJ	175.695	-0.330	-0.456	-0.221
RN	152.896	-0.783	0.006	0.241
RO	166.711	-0.333	-0.001	0.233
RR	155.746	-0.464	-0.067	0.168
RS	167.210	-0.330	-0.476	-0.241
SC	161.658	-0.181	-0.305	-0.070
SE	158.087	-0.932	-0.098	0.137
SP	171.313	-0.293	-0.471	-0.236
TO	161.917	-0.646	0.080	0.315

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Math - Black BOTTOM SES

	Dependent variable:
	base_formula
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 2	Model 3
COHORT2009-2013	-0.469***	-0.462***	-0.462***	-0.462***	-0.462***	-0.505***
	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.072)	(0.073)
COHORT2011-2015	-0.429***	-0.408***	-0.408***	-0.406***	-0.406***	-0.466***
	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.074)	(0.076)
COHORT2013-2017	-0.632***	-0.589***	-0.589***	-0.588***	-0.589***	-0.660***
	(0.075)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.076)	(0.077)
RACA_PRETO	-0.652*	-0.802**	-0.798**	-0.797**	-0.798**	-0.956***
	(0.275)	(0.273)	(0.273)	(0.273)	(0.273)	(0.287)
NSE_AVG	0.198***	0.286***	0.286***	0.292***	0.286***	0.394***
	(0.033)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.035)	(0.034)	(0.036)
SEXO_M	-0.527***	-0.008	-0.009	-0.012	-0.013	-0.054
	(0.151)	(0.153)	(0.153)	(0.153)	(0.153)	(0.155)
ied_ef_anos_finais_1_2		-0.011	-0.011	-0.011	-0.011	-0.005
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.012)
afd_ef_anos_finais_grupo_5		-0.063***	-0.063***	-0.064***	-0.064***	-0.031*
		(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.011)	(0.013)
NUM_SCHOOLS		0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	-0.001
		(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
proportion_estadual		-0.311***	-0.311***	-0.310***	-0.311***	-0.184***
		(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.048)
avg_index_violence		-0.040**	-0.039**	-0.039**	-0.039**	-0.041**
		(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)
DROP_OUT_RATE		0.833***	0.833***	0.832***	0.833***	0.880***
		(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.071)	(0.076)
kl_raca			0.003
			(0.011)
kl_NSE				0.016
				(0.011)
kl_raca_ses					0.009	0.023
					(0.012)	(0.012)
UfAC						0.066
						(0.145)
UfAL						0.058
						(0.096)
UfAM						-0.561***
						(0.103)
UfAP						-0.277
						(0.169)
UfBA						-0.122
						(0.085)
UfCE						0.218*
						(0.091)
UfES						-0.216
						(0.139)
UfMA						-0.126
						(0.090)
UfMG						-0.206**
						(0.075)
UfMS						-0.004
						(0.241)
UfMT						-0.387***
						(0.111)
UfPA						-0.289**
						(0.092)
UfPB						-0.142
						(0.083)
UfPE						0.033
						(0.086)
UfPI						0.034
						(0.087)
UfPR						-0.205
						(0.110)
UfRJ						-0.142
						(0.280)
UfRN						0.009
						(0.086)
UfRO						-0.049
						(0.123)
UfRR						-0.174
						(0.182)
UfRS						-0.376**
						(0.142)
UfSC						-0.654**
						(0.230)
UfSE						0.054
						(0.098)
UfSP						-0.633***
						(0.126)
UfTO						0.121
						(0.085)
COHORT2009-2013:RACA_PRETO	-0.328	-0.208	-0.210	-0.209	-0.208	-0.107
	(0.391)	(0.387)	(0.387)	(0.387)	(0.387)	(0.385)
COHORT2011-2015:RACA_PRETO	-0.336	-0.238	-0.240	-0.242	-0.243	-0.113
	(0.379)	(0.375)	(0.375)	(0.375)	(0.375)	(0.374)
COHORT2013-2017:RACA_PRETO	0.183	0.277	0.276	0.271	0.274	0.409
	(0.378)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)	(0.373)
COHORT2009-2013:NSE_AVG	-0.179***	-0.176***	-0.177***	-0.177***	-0.177***	-0.188***
	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)
COHORT2011-2015:NSE_AVG	-0.393***	-0.365***	-0.366***	-0.365***	-0.365***	-0.384***
	(0.056)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.055)	(0.056)
COHORT2013-2017:NSE_AVG	-0.438***	-0.401***	-0.401***	-0.401***	-0.400***	-0.444***
	(0.057)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.057)
Constant	0.984***	0.715***	0.716***	0.722***	0.719***	0.882***
	(0.086)	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.094)	(0.121)
Observations	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,777	10,723
R2	0.025	0.050	0.050	0.051	0.050	0.069
Adjusted R2	0.024	0.049	0.049	0.049	0.049	0.066
Residual Std. Error	1.067 (df = 10764)	1.054 (df = 10758)	1.054 (df = 10757)	1.054 (df = 10757)	1.054 (df = 10757)	1.047 (df = 10678)
F Statistic	23.330*** (df = 12; 10764)	31.693*** (df = 18; 10758)	30.027*** (df = 19; 10757)	30.129*** (df = 19; 10757)	30.059*** (df = 19; 10757)	18.122*** (df = 44; 10678)
Note:	p<0.05; p<0.01; p<0.001

Value added state left out (GO) = 0.3256

List of states with their averages and value-added (Math)

state	Average 5th grade scores	Average SES	Coefficient	Value-added
AC	181.565	-0.647	0.066	0.392
AL	165.715	-1.294	0.058	0.384
AM	183.427	-0.559	-0.561	-0.235
AP	168.484	-0.464	-0.277	0.049
BA	176.413	-0.919	-0.122	0.204
CE	180.316	-1.145	0.218	0.544
ES	191.797	-0.202	-0.216	0.110
GO	188.054	-0.417	0.000	0.326
MA	165.841	-1.294	-0.126	0.199
MG	198.156	-0.619	-0.206	0.119
MS	179.730	-0.318	-0.004	0.322
MT	181.924	-0.311	-0.387	-0.062
PA	173.732	-0.775	-0.289	0.037
PB	175.178	-1.035	-0.142	0.183
PE	175.098	-0.992	0.033	0.359
PI	174.808	-1.229	0.034	0.360
PR	186.853	-0.304	-0.205	0.121
RJ	192.557	-0.330	-0.142	0.184
RN	168.519	-0.783	0.009	0.335
RO	187.489	-0.333	-0.049	0.276
RR	174.030	-0.464	-0.174	0.152
RS	181.845	-0.330	-0.376	-0.051
SC	192.993	-0.181	-0.654	-0.328
SE	175.729	-0.932	0.054	0.380
SP	193.406	-0.293	-0.633	-0.308
TO	178.321	-0.646	0.121	0.446

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