Domestic Car Production

Monthly domestic car production: DAUPSA

• 2020 (Especially Q2): A dramatic collapse. Production plummeted in Spring 2020 as pandemic lockdowns forced widespread factory closures. DAUPSA hit historic lows.

• 2021: A sharp “V-shaped” rebound began as plants reopened and pent-up demand surged. However, this recovery phase was soon interrupted.

• 2022: The Great Constraint: The primary trend shifted from demand shock to a massive supply chain shock. A global shortage of semiconductors (chips) forced automakers to repeatedly idle assembly lines.

Total Vehicle Sales (TOTALSA)

• The Bubble (Pre-2008): Unsustainably high sales driven by easy credit.

• The Drop (2008-2009): A brutal cleansing of the excesses, resetting sales to a deep trough.

• The Golden Age (2010-2019): A textbook economic recovery cycle, where genuine pent-up demand, cheap money, and a strong product mix drove sales to a sustainable, record-breaking plateau.

• The Anomaly (2020-Present): An unprecedented period where supply, not demand, became the primary driver of sales volume, creating a market of scarcity, high prices, and postponed transactions. The market is now searching for equilibrium in a high-interest-rate environment.Car prices have increased due to shortages and high interest rates

Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Light Weight Trucks (LTRUCKSA)

• The story of LTRUCKSA over 25 years is one of meteoric rise, catastrophic stress-test, strategic rebirth, and ultimate hegemony.

• From Segment to Mainstream (Pre-2008): Light trucks grew from a popular segment to a dominant market force.

• Near-Death Experience (2008-2009): Exposed the vulnerability of an over-reliance on large trucks during economic/energy shocks.

• Strategic Dominance (2010-2019): Automakers retooled the entire industry to profitably serve light truck demand, making it the core of their business.

• Resilient Core (2020-Present): Despite massive external shocks, the category’s fundamental importance has only been reinforced. Its future is now tied to the transition to electric powertrains.

Motor Vehicle Retail Sales: Heavy Weight Trucks (HTRUCKSSAAR)

• The series exhibits high volatility — caution needed in short-term interpretation

• Because HTRUCKSSAAR is a monthly series (seasonally adjusted annual rate), it tends to swing significantly month-to-month depending on timing of large fleet purchases, order backlogs, and broader economic/business cycles

• The data only covers retail sales of heavy trucks, not fleet sales, leasing, used-truck market, or other heavy-duty vehicle categories — so it’s a partial view of total heavy-duty trucking demand.

• Because heavy trucks are expensive and purchased irregularly, many large buyers may order in bunches or delay purchases — creating lumpiness and making short-term readings noisy.

• Heavy-truck demand can be influenced by non-economic factors (regulation, fuel costs, interest rates, supply disruptions, supply-chain constraints).

Auto Exports (AUESA)

From the pandemic trough in 2020 the U.S. auto-exports series has generally recovered with substantial volatility — a strong rebound through 2021–2022, mixed/soft performance and cyclical dips in 2023–2024, and renewed strength into 2025 (seasonally-adjusted AUESA = 144.144 thousand units in July 2025).

Year-by-year, five-year view (mid-2020 → mid-2025)

1/ Mid-2020 (pandemic trough & disruption). Auto exports were hit by the COVID shock and global shutdowns; BEA trade releases document the disruption to vehicle trade in 2020. Recovery from that trough is the starting point for the 5-year trend.

2/ 2021–2022 (rebound). As factories reopened and supply-chain bottlenecks began to ease, exports rose — reflecting both resumed production and higher global demand for vehicles and parts. BEA monthly trade notes through 2021–2022 record rising automotive export values in many months.

3/ 2023–2024 (volatile / mixed). The series shows monthly swings rather than a steady climb — global demand shifts, inventory adjustments, price effects, and intermittent supply issues produced ups and downs in 2023–2024 (BEA monthly trade releases for those years document variable auto export performance).

4/ 2025 (renewed strength by mid-year). By July 2025 the seasonally-adjusted AUESA value was 144.144 (thousand units) — noticeably higher than some prior months in the 2020–2022 period and indicating a stronger export flow into 2025 (the series on FRED is updated monthly).