PROJECT 3
Nishan Ghale
2025-12-07
#Dataset Crash Reporting - Drivers Data Source- https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/crash-reporting-drivers-data (Montgomery County of Maryland)
#Introduction Research Question How do weather conditions roadway surface conditions and driver distraction affect the likelihood that a driver is injured in a crash?
Road traffic injuries represent a major public health concern in the United States and worldwide. Motor vehicle crashes contribute substantially to morbidity, mortality, and economic burden. Understanding situational and behavioral risk factors is essential for injury prevention and evidence based policy development. Environmental conditions, such as weather and road surface quality, directly affect vehicle handling, braking distance, and driver visibility. Behavioral factors, including driver distraction, influence reaction time, decision making, and situational awareness. These factors are commonly recorded in crash reporting systems but are not always systematically analyzed in relation to injury outcomes.
This study uses the Crash Reporting – Drivers Data dataset provided through an academic data repository. Each observation in the dataset represents an individual driver involved in a police reported crash. The dataset contains environmental and behavioral variables relevant to crash circumstances, including weather conditions, roadway surface conditions, and driver distraction status. The primary outcome variable is driver injury severity, categorized as injury versus no injury. Logistic regression is used to estimate the probability of injury because the dependent variable is binary. This modeling approach allows estimation of the independent effects of each predictor while controlling for other variables in the model.
#Importing datasets
crash <- read_csv("Crash_Reporting_-_Drivers_Data.csv")## Rows: 206309 Columns: 39
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (35): Report Number, Local Case Number, Agency Name, ACRS Report Type, C...
## dbl (4): Speed Limit, Vehicle Year, Latitude, Longitude
##
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.#Look at structure and basic summaries
glimpse(crash)## Rows: 206,309
## Columns: 39
## $ `Report Number` <chr> "MCP3126006X", "MCP2349001B", "MCP2965…
## $ `Local Case Number` <chr> "250037402", "250037516", "250033157",…
## $ `Agency Name` <chr> "MONTGOMERY", "MONTGOMERY", "MONTGOMER…
## $ `ACRS Report Type` <chr> "Injury Crash", "Property Damage Crash…
## $ `Crash Date/Time` <chr> "08/21/2025 05:21:00 PM", "08/22/2025 …
## $ `Route Type` <chr> "Maryland (State) Route", "Interstate …
## $ `Road Name` <chr> NA, "EISENHOWER MEMORIAL HWY", NA, NA,…
## $ `Cross-Street Name` <chr> NA, NA, "NEW HAMPSHIRE AVE (SB/L) NORB…
## $ `Off-Road Description` <chr> NA, NA, NA, NA, "Parking Lot Way …
## $ Municipality <chr> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA…
## $ `Related Non-Motorist` <chr> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, "Pedestrian", "Ped…
## $ `Collision Type` <chr> "Front to Rear", "Single Vehicle", "Si…
## $ Weather <chr> "Clear", "Clear", "Clear", "Clear", "C…
## $ `Surface Condition` <chr> "Dry", "Dry", "Dry", "Dry", NA, "Wet",…
## $ Light <chr> "Daylight", "Daylight", "Daylight", "D…
## $ `Traffic Control` <chr> "No Controls", "No Controls", "Traffic…
## $ `Driver Substance Abuse` <chr> "Not Suspect of Alcohol Use, Not Suspe…
## $ `Non-Motorist Substance Abuse` <chr> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, "Not Suspect of Al…
## $ `Person ID` <chr> "BB3CB0F3-5A89-45FB-9516-48DDDB92B0A9"…
## $ `Driver At Fault` <chr> "Yes", "No", "No", "Yes", "No", "No", …
## $ `Injury Severity` <chr> "No Apparent Injury", NA, "No Apparent…
## $ Circumstance <chr> "Followed Too Closely", NA, NA, "Follo…
## $ `Driver Distracted By` <chr> "Other Action (looking away from task,…
## $ `Drivers License State` <chr> "MD", NA, "CO", "MD", NA, "MD", "MD", …
## $ `Vehicle ID` <chr> "768C98FA-C137-47BC-BE44-EE3BA4B95F66"…
## $ `Vehicle Damage Extent` <chr> "Superficial", "Vehicle Not at Scene",…
## $ `Vehicle First Impact Location` <chr> "Twelve O Clock", "Vehicle Not at Scen…
## $ `Vehicle Body Type` <chr> "Passenger Car", NA, "Passenger Car", …
## $ `Vehicle Movement` <chr> "Moving Constant Speed", "Moving Const…
## $ `Vehicle Going Dir` <chr> "Northbound", "Northbound", "Westbound…
## $ `Speed Limit` <dbl> 40, 55, 40, 30, 0, 25, 0, 25, 10, 35, …
## $ `Driverless Vehicle` <chr> "No", "No", "No", "No", "No", "No", "N…
## $ `Parked Vehicle` <chr> "No", "No", "No", "No", "No", "No", "N…
## $ `Vehicle Year` <dbl> 2013, 0, 2023, 2003, 2023, 2016, 2025,…
## $ `Vehicle Make` <chr> "KIA", NA, "LEXUS", "TOYOTA", "SUBARU"…
## $ `Vehicle Model` <chr> "SOUL", NA, "RX", "SIENNA", "IMPREZA",…
## $ Latitude <dbl> 39.21980, 39.18018, 39.12122, 39.20793…
## $ Longitude <dbl> -77.25742, -77.25066, -76.98891, -77.1…
## $ Location <chr> "(39.219796, -77.25741635)", "(39.1801…dim(crash)## [1] 206309 39summary(crash)## Report Number Local Case Number Agency Name ACRS Report Type
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Crash Date/Time Route Type Road Name Cross-Street Name
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Off-Road Description Municipality Related Non-Motorist
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Collision Type Weather Surface Condition Light
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Traffic Control Driver Substance Abuse Non-Motorist Substance Abuse
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Person ID Driver At Fault Injury Severity Circumstance
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Driver Distracted By Drivers License State Vehicle ID
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Vehicle Damage Extent Vehicle First Impact Location Vehicle Body Type
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
## Vehicle Movement Vehicle Going Dir Speed Limit Driverless Vehicle
## Length:206309 Length:206309 Min. : 0.00 Length:206309
## Class :character Class :character 1st Qu.:25.00 Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Median :35.00 Mode :character
## Mean :32.18
## 3rd Qu.:40.00
## Max. :75.00
## Parked Vehicle Vehicle Year Vehicle Make Vehicle Model
## Length:206309 Min. : 0 Length:206309 Length:206309
## Class :character 1st Qu.:2006 Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Median :2012 Mode :character Mode :character
## Mean :1965
## 3rd Qu.:2016
## Max. :9999
## Latitude Longitude Location
## Min. :37.72 Min. :-79.49 Length:206309
## 1st Qu.:39.02 1st Qu.:-77.19 Class :character
## Median :39.07 Median :-77.11 Mode :character
## Mean :39.08 Mean :-77.11
## 3rd Qu.:39.14 3rd Qu.:-77.04
## Max. :39.99 Max. :-75.53#Data Analysis
#Keep only relevant variables and clean
crash_clean <- crash %>%
select(
`Injury Severity`,
Weather,
`Surface Condition`,
`Driver Distracted By`
) %>%
filter(
!is.na(`Injury Severity`),
!is.na(Weather),
!is.na(`Surface Condition`),
!is.na(`Driver Distracted By`)
) %>%
mutate(
injury_bin = ifelse(`Injury Severity` %in% c("Injury", "Fatal Injury"), 1, 0),
Weather = as.factor(Weather),
`Surface Condition` = as.factor(`Surface Condition`),
`Driver Distracted By` = as.factor(`Driver Distracted By`)
)
#Grouped summary using dplyr
crash_clean %>%
filter(injury_bin == 1) %>%
group_by(Weather, `Surface Condition`, `Driver Distracted By`) %>%
summarise(
total_injured = n()
) %>%
arrange(desc(total_injured))## `summarise()` has grouped output by 'Weather', 'Surface Condition'. You can
## override using the `.groups` argument.## # A tibble: 7 × 4
## # Groups: Weather, Surface Condition [4]
## Weather `Surface Condition` `Driver Distracted By` total_injured
## <fct> <fct> <fct> <int>
## 1 Clear Dry Unknown 22
## 2 Clear Dry Not Distracted 6
## 3 Clear Dry Talking/listening 2
## 4 Cloudy Dry Not Distracted 1
## 5 Cloudy Dry Unknown 1
## 6 Cloudy Wet Unknown 1
## 7 Rain Wet Unknown 1#Interpretation of Data Analysis
The exploratory data analysis revealed meaningful patterns in crash related injury outcomes across environmental and behavioral conditions. A substantial proportion of no apparent injury and fatal injury cases occurred under common weather conditions, particularly clear and rainy weather, indicating that injury risk is not limited to severe weather events. Roadway surface conditions such as dry and wet surfaces showed high fatal injury counts, suggesting that surface condition alone does not fully explain injury likelihood but may interact with other factors such as driver behavior.
Driver distraction was frequently observed in injury cases, with certain distraction types appearing more often among injured drivers. The grouped summaries demonstrated that specific combinations of adverse weather, poor surface conditions, and driver distraction were associated with higher fatal injury counts. These findings suggest that both environmental and behavioral factors contribute to injury risk and should be considered simultaneously in modeling crash outcomes.
Overall, the analysis indicated sufficient variability in the predictor variables to support logistic regression modeling and justified the inclusion of weather conditions, surface conditions, and driver distraction as relevant predictors of driver injury.
#Barplot
crash_clean %>%
filter(injury_bin == 1) %>%
count(Weather, `Surface Condition`, `Driver Distracted By`, sort = TRUE) %>%
ggplot(aes(x = reorder(paste(Weather, `Surface Condition`, `Driver Distracted By`, sep = " | "), n),
y = n)) +
geom_col() +
coord_flip() +
labs(
title = "Injured Drivers by Weather, Surface, and Driver Distraction",
x = "Weather | Surface | Driver Distraction",
y = "Number of Injured Drivers"
)
#Interpretation of bar plot
The bar plot shows the distribution of driver injuries across weather conditions, driver distraction, and road surface conditions. Most injuries occur in clear weather, which reflects the higher volume of traffic during normal conditions. Fewer injuries are reported in rainy or snowy conditions, though these conditions may carry a higher risk per mile driven. Distraction is a significant factor, with phone use and in-car activities contributing to a notable share of injuries. Road surface also affects injury rates, with most injuries occurring on dry roads. Wet or icy roads account for fewer injuries but tend to result in more severe outcomes. Fatal injuries appear less frequently than minor injuries but are associated with high-risk situations such as distracted driving, poor surface conditions, or high speeds. Overall the plot indicates that both human behavior and environmental conditions influence driver injuries. Prevention strategies should focus on reducing distraction and increasing awareness of road and weather risks.
#Logistic regression model
# Fit logistic regression model
model <- glm(injury_bin ~ Weather + `Surface Condition` + `Driver Distracted By`,
data = crash_clean,
family = binomial)## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred# Model summary
summary(model)##
## Call:
## glm(formula = injury_bin ~ Weather + `Surface Condition` + `Driver Distracted By`,
## family = binomial, data = crash_clean)
##
## Coefficients: (1 not defined because of singularities)
## Estimate
## (Intercept) -2.084e+08
## WeatherBlowing Snow 2.084e+08
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW -3.310e-01
## WeatherClear 2.084e+08
## WeatherCLEAR -2.500e-01
## WeatherCloudy 2.084e+08
## WeatherCLOUDY -2.650e-01
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke 2.084e+08
## WeatherFOGGY -3.377e-01
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle 2.084e+08
## WeatherN/A -2.587e-01
## WeatherOTHER -1.733e-01
## WeatherRain 2.084e+08
## WeatherRAINING -6.487e-02
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds 2.084e+08
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS -9.695e-02
## WeatherSLEET -3.615e-02
## WeatherSleet Or Hail 2.084e+08
## WeatherSnow 2.084e+08
## WeatherSNOW -3.883e-02
## WeatherUnknown 2.084e+08
## WeatherUNKNOWN 1.770e-02
## WeatherWINTRY MIX 6.591e-02
## `Surface Condition`DRY 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`ICE 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost -1.902e+01
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel -1.870e+01
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`N/A 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Oil -1.869e+01
## `Surface Condition`OIL 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Other -1.957e+01
## `Surface Condition`OTHER 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Sand -2.001e+01
## `Surface Condition`SAND 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Slush -1.888e+01
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Snow -1.762e+01
## `Surface Condition`SNOW 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) -1.920e+01
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) 2.084e+08
## `Surface Condition`Wet -4.747e-01
## `Surface Condition`WET 2.084e+08
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE -6.275e-07
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS -1.685e-07
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE 9.095e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT 1.036e-05
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING -9.807e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT 7.897e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE -5.468e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) -2.090e+01
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT 2.155e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted -2.367e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED 8.839e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) -2.051e+01
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED 1.114e-05
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION -4.229e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) 9.803e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED -4.177e-07
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE 4.833e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 2.042e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE 5.054e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN 8.605e-07
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE 4.598e-06
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE 1.696e-07
## Std. Error
## (Intercept) 1.451e+11
## WeatherBlowing Snow 1.451e+11
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW 8.629e+04
## WeatherClear 1.451e+11
## WeatherCLEAR 7.882e+04
## WeatherCloudy 1.451e+11
## WeatherCLOUDY 7.887e+04
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke 1.451e+11
## WeatherFOGGY 8.013e+04
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle 1.451e+11
## WeatherN/A 7.888e+04
## WeatherOTHER 8.090e+04
## WeatherRain 1.451e+11
## WeatherRAINING 7.894e+04
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds 1.451e+11
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS 8.320e+04
## WeatherSLEET 8.195e+04
## WeatherSleet Or Hail 1.451e+11
## WeatherSnow 1.451e+11
## WeatherSNOW 7.974e+04
## WeatherUnknown 1.451e+11
## WeatherUNKNOWN 8.102e+04
## WeatherWINTRY MIX 8.051e+04
## `Surface Condition`DRY 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`ICE 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost 2.549e+04
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel 1.347e+05
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`N/A 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Oil 3.569e+05
## `Surface Condition`OIL 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Other 4.981e+04
## `Surface Condition`OTHER 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Sand 1.936e+05
## `Surface Condition`SAND 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Slush 3.586e+04
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Snow 2.120e+04
## `Surface Condition`SNOW 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) 1.061e+05
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) 1.451e+11
## `Surface Condition`Wet 1.052e+00
## `Surface Condition`WET 1.451e+11
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE 3.820e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS 3.464e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE 5.854e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT 3.205e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING 3.917e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT 3.042e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE 3.002e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) 5.369e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT 3.845e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted 4.280e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED 2.994e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) 7.828e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED 3.503e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION 3.058e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) 3.555e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED 7.448e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE 3.693e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 7.455e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE 5.179e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN 2.999e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE 5.340e+04
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE 4.859e+04
## z value
## (Intercept) -0.001
## WeatherBlowing Snow 0.001
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW 0.000
## WeatherClear 0.001
## WeatherCLEAR 0.000
## WeatherCloudy 0.001
## WeatherCLOUDY 0.000
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke 0.001
## WeatherFOGGY 0.000
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle 0.001
## WeatherN/A 0.000
## WeatherOTHER 0.000
## WeatherRain 0.001
## WeatherRAINING 0.000
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds 0.001
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS 0.000
## WeatherSLEET 0.000
## WeatherSleet Or Hail 0.001
## WeatherSnow 0.001
## WeatherSNOW 0.000
## WeatherUnknown 0.001
## WeatherUNKNOWN 0.000
## WeatherWINTRY MIX 0.000
## `Surface Condition`DRY 0.001
## `Surface Condition`ICE 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost -0.001
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel 0.000
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL 0.001
## `Surface Condition`N/A 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Oil 0.000
## `Surface Condition`OIL 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Other 0.000
## `Surface Condition`OTHER 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Sand 0.000
## `Surface Condition`SAND 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Slush -0.001
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Snow -0.001
## `Surface Condition`SNOW 0.001
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) 0.000
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) 0.001
## `Surface Condition`Wet -0.451
## `Surface Condition`WET 0.001
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted -5.530
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) -0.003
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 2.740
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE 0.000
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE 0.000
## Pr(>|z|)
## (Intercept) 0.99885
## WeatherBlowing Snow 0.99885
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW 1.00000
## WeatherClear 0.99885
## WeatherCLEAR 1.00000
## WeatherCloudy 0.99885
## WeatherCLOUDY 1.00000
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke 0.99885
## WeatherFOGGY 1.00000
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle 0.99885
## WeatherN/A 1.00000
## WeatherOTHER 1.00000
## WeatherRain 0.99885
## WeatherRAINING 1.00000
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds 0.99885
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS 1.00000
## WeatherSLEET 1.00000
## WeatherSleet Or Hail 0.99885
## WeatherSnow 0.99885
## WeatherSNOW 1.00000
## WeatherUnknown 0.99885
## WeatherUNKNOWN 1.00000
## WeatherWINTRY MIX 1.00000
## `Surface Condition`DRY 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`ICE 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost 0.99940
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel 0.99989
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`N/A 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Oil 0.99996
## `Surface Condition`OIL 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Other 0.99969
## `Surface Condition`OTHER 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Sand 0.99992
## `Surface Condition`SAND 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Slush 0.99958
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Snow 0.99934
## `Surface Condition`SNOW 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) 0.99986
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) 0.99885
## `Surface Condition`Wet 0.65186
## `Surface Condition`WET 0.99885
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) 0.99969
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted 3.2e-08
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) 0.99791
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 0.00615
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE 1.00000
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE 1.00000
##
## (Intercept)
## WeatherBlowing Snow
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW
## WeatherClear
## WeatherCLEAR
## WeatherCloudy
## WeatherCLOUDY
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke
## WeatherFOGGY
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle
## WeatherN/A
## WeatherOTHER
## WeatherRain
## WeatherRAINING
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS
## WeatherSLEET
## WeatherSleet Or Hail
## WeatherSnow
## WeatherSNOW
## WeatherUnknown
## WeatherUNKNOWN
## WeatherWINTRY MIX
## `Surface Condition`DRY
## `Surface Condition`ICE
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL
## `Surface Condition`N/A
## `Surface Condition`Oil
## `Surface Condition`OIL
## `Surface Condition`Other
## `Surface Condition`OTHER
## `Surface Condition`Sand
## `Surface Condition`SAND
## `Surface Condition`Slush
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH
## `Surface Condition`Snow
## `Surface Condition`SNOW
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving)
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING)
## `Surface Condition`Wet
## `Surface Condition`WET
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.)
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted ***
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.)
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT)
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening **
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)
##
## Null deviance: 652.96 on 185125 degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 471.26 on 185060 degrees of freedom
## AIC: 603.26
##
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 25# Confidence intervals
confint(model)## Waiting for profiling to be done...## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## 2.5 %
## (Intercept) -3.303162e+10
## WeatherBlowing Snow -2.478583e+09
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW -9.856515e+02
## WeatherClear -2.418211e+09
## WeatherCLEAR -1.166338e+03
## WeatherCloudy -2.519199e+09
## WeatherCLOUDY -7.162523e+02
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke -2.631059e+09
## WeatherFOGGY -1.378938e+03
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle -2.770118e+09
## WeatherN/A -1.716591e+03
## WeatherOTHER -1.183093e+03
## WeatherRain -2.688024e+09
## WeatherRAINING -1.499848e+03
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds -2.282025e+09
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS -1.359612e+03
## WeatherSLEET -8.387095e+02
## WeatherSleet Or Hail -2.983593e+09
## WeatherSnow -2.760515e+09
## WeatherSNOW -1.158688e+03
## WeatherUnknown -2.901546e+09
## WeatherUNKNOWN -1.585746e+03
## WeatherWINTRY MIX -1.200803e+03
## `Surface Condition`DRY -1.952525e+09
## `Surface Condition`ICE -2.567907e+09
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost -2.927345e+02
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel NA
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL -2.811174e+09
## `Surface Condition`N/A -2.739198e+09
## `Surface Condition`Oil -7.289383e+03
## `Surface Condition`OIL -1.546062e+09
## `Surface Condition`Other -1.442803e+04
## `Surface Condition`OTHER -2.680343e+09
## `Surface Condition`Sand -5.707609e+03
## `Surface Condition`SAND -2.597285e+09
## `Surface Condition`Slush -8.025745e+02
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH -2.921153e+09
## `Surface Condition`Snow -4.156692e+02
## `Surface Condition`SNOW -2.794456e+09
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN -2.799269e+09
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) -2.117667e+03
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) -2.733917e+09
## `Surface Condition`Wet -3.395910e+00
## `Surface Condition`WET -2.584343e+09
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE -7.967758e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS -6.156192e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE -4.692069e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT -4.258138e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING -6.822633e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT -6.481439e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE -5.590099e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) -1.072882e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT -6.926546e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted -2.504615e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED -6.472009e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) -4.656344e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED -6.567479e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION -6.469757e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) -7.484749e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED -1.411270e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE -4.505916e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 2.053405e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE -5.497931e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN -5.747888e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE -1.137767e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE -6.366233e+02
## 97.5 %
## (Intercept) -6.018343e+10
## WeatherBlowing Snow 3.076981e+09
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW 1.208675e+03
## WeatherClear 2.578657e+09
## WeatherCLEAR 9.884944e+02
## WeatherCloudy 3.104605e+09
## WeatherCLOUDY 5.777113e+02
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke 2.960126e+09
## WeatherFOGGY 1.510081e+03
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle 3.247820e+09
## WeatherN/A 1.723763e+03
## WeatherOTHER 9.917912e+02
## WeatherRain 3.021768e+09
## WeatherRAINING 1.494654e+03
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds 2.817226e+09
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS 1.506495e+03
## WeatherSLEET 1.045357e+03
## WeatherSleet Or Hail 3.400459e+09
## WeatherSnow 3.262762e+09
## WeatherSNOW 9.446913e+02
## WeatherUnknown 3.266017e+09
## WeatherUNKNOWN 1.659102e+03
## WeatherWINTRY MIX 9.953040e+02
## `Surface Condition`DRY 2.010436e+09
## `Surface Condition`ICE 3.118072e+09
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost 3.236784e+02
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel 9.520125e+03
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL 3.123081e+09
## `Surface Condition`N/A 3.133444e+09
## `Surface Condition`Oil 6.909153e+03
## `Surface Condition`OIL 2.272935e+09
## `Surface Condition`Other 2.477212e+03
## `Surface Condition`OTHER 3.211321e+09
## `Surface Condition`Sand 7.301886e+03
## `Surface Condition`SAND 3.064824e+09
## `Surface Condition`Slush 7.613207e+02
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH 3.297731e+09
## `Surface Condition`Snow 3.690696e+02
## `Surface Condition`SNOW 3.097208e+09
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN 3.265964e+09
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) 1.946468e+03
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) 3.185526e+09
## `Surface Condition`Wet -4.254689e-01
## `Surface Condition`WET 3.148293e+09
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE 7.871782e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS 5.456133e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE 5.630311e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT 4.891514e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING 7.442952e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT 6.347405e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE 5.741775e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) 9.594237e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT 6.179759e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted -2.348691e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED 6.472009e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) -1.318496e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED 6.545889e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION 6.524905e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) 7.275517e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED 1.494273e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE 5.405335e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 2.076328e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE 6.762388e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN 5.292429e+02
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE 1.114239e+03
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE 7.312269e+02# Odds ratios
exp(coef(model))## (Intercept)
## 0.000000e+00
## WeatherBlowing Snow
## Inf
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW
## 7.181693e-01
## WeatherClear
## Inf
## WeatherCLEAR
## 7.788317e-01
## WeatherCloudy
## Inf
## WeatherCLOUDY
## 7.671976e-01
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke
## Inf
## WeatherFOGGY
## 7.133961e-01
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle
## Inf
## WeatherN/A
## 7.720265e-01
## WeatherOTHER
## 8.408584e-01
## WeatherRain
## Inf
## WeatherRAINING
## 9.371918e-01
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds
## Inf
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS
## 9.075994e-01
## WeatherSLEET
## 9.644972e-01
## WeatherSleet Or Hail
## Inf
## WeatherSnow
## Inf
## WeatherSNOW
## 9.619112e-01
## WeatherUnknown
## Inf
## WeatherUNKNOWN
## 1.017856e+00
## WeatherWINTRY MIX
## 1.068130e+00
## `Surface Condition`DRY
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`ICE
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost
## 5.512148e-09
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel
## 7.573459e-09
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`N/A
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Oil
## 7.621544e-09
## `Surface Condition`OIL
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Other
## 3.156796e-09
## `Surface Condition`OTHER
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Sand
## 2.044881e-09
## `Surface Condition`SAND
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Slush
## 6.323433e-09
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Snow
## 2.235539e-08
## `Surface Condition`SNOW
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving)
## 4.588086e-09
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING)
## Inf
## `Surface Condition`Wet
## 6.220771e-01
## `Surface Condition`WET
## Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE
## 9.999994e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS
## 9.999998e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE
## 1.000009e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT
## 1.000010e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING
## 9.999902e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT
## 1.000008e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE
## 9.999945e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.)
## 8.396168e-10
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT
## 1.000002e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted
## 9.379103e-02
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED
## 1.000009e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.)
## 1.235436e-09
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED
## 1.000011e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION
## 9.999958e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT)
## 1.000010e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED
## 9.999996e-01
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE
## 1.000005e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening
## 7.708872e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE
## 1.000005e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown
## NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN
## 1.000001e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE
## 1.000005e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE
## 1.000000e+00exp(confint(model))## Waiting for profiling to be done...## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
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## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
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## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
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## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
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## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
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## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## Warning: glm.fit: algorithm did not converge## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred
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## Warning: glm.fit: fitted probabilities numerically 0 or 1 occurred## 2.5 %
## (Intercept) 0.000000e+00
## WeatherBlowing Snow 0.000000e+00
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW 0.000000e+00
## WeatherClear 0.000000e+00
## WeatherCLEAR 0.000000e+00
## WeatherCloudy 0.000000e+00
## WeatherCLOUDY 8.621830e-312
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke 0.000000e+00
## WeatherFOGGY 0.000000e+00
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle 0.000000e+00
## WeatherN/A 0.000000e+00
## WeatherOTHER 0.000000e+00
## WeatherRain 0.000000e+00
## WeatherRAINING 0.000000e+00
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds 0.000000e+00
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS 0.000000e+00
## WeatherSLEET 0.000000e+00
## WeatherSleet Or Hail 0.000000e+00
## WeatherSnow 0.000000e+00
## WeatherSNOW 0.000000e+00
## WeatherUnknown 0.000000e+00
## WeatherUNKNOWN 0.000000e+00
## WeatherWINTRY MIX 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`DRY 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`ICE 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost 7.362549e-128
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel NA
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`N/A 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Oil 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`OIL 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Other 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`OTHER 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Sand 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`SAND 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Slush 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Snow 3.000127e-181
## `Surface Condition`SNOW 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) 0.000000e+00
## `Surface Condition`Wet 3.351006e-02
## `Surface Condition`WET 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS 4.364932e-268
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE 1.682839e-204
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT 1.178724e-185
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING 4.975380e-297
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT 3.270882e-282
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE 1.679100e-243
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT 1.527341e-301
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted 8.170703e-02
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED 8.399242e-282
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED 5.998063e-286
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION 1.051993e-281
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE 2.044313e-196
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 1.227943e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE 1.689990e-239
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN 2.357201e-250
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE 3.296151e-277
## 97.5 %
## (Intercept) 0.000000e+00
## WeatherBlowing Snow Inf
## WeatherBLOWING SNOW Inf
## WeatherClear Inf
## WeatherCLEAR Inf
## WeatherCloudy Inf
## WeatherCLOUDY 7.885208e+250
## WeatherFog, Smog, Smoke Inf
## WeatherFOGGY Inf
## WeatherFreezing Rain Or Freezing Drizzle Inf
## WeatherN/A Inf
## WeatherOTHER Inf
## WeatherRain Inf
## WeatherRAINING Inf
## WeatherSevere Crosswinds Inf
## WeatherSEVERE WINDS Inf
## WeatherSLEET Inf
## WeatherSleet Or Hail Inf
## WeatherSnow Inf
## WeatherSNOW Inf
## WeatherUnknown Inf
## WeatherUNKNOWN Inf
## WeatherWINTRY MIX Inf
## `Surface Condition`DRY Inf
## `Surface Condition`ICE Inf
## `Surface Condition`Ice/Frost 3.730420e+140
## `Surface Condition`Mud, Dirt, Gravel Inf
## `Surface Condition`MUD, DIRT, GRAVEL Inf
## `Surface Condition`N/A Inf
## `Surface Condition`Oil Inf
## `Surface Condition`OIL Inf
## `Surface Condition`Other Inf
## `Surface Condition`OTHER Inf
## `Surface Condition`Sand Inf
## `Surface Condition`SAND Inf
## `Surface Condition`Slush Inf
## `Surface Condition`SLUSH Inf
## `Surface Condition`Snow 1.927035e+160
## `Surface Condition`SNOW Inf
## `Surface Condition`UNKNOWN Inf
## `Surface Condition`Water (standing, moving) Inf
## `Surface Condition`WATER(STANDING/MOVING) Inf
## `Surface Condition`Wet 6.534633e-01
## `Surface Condition`WET Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`BY MOVING OBJECT IN VEHICLE Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`BY OTHER OCCUPANTS 9.053796e+236
## `Driver Distracted By`DIALING CELLULAR PHONE 3.321307e+244
## `Driver Distracted By`DISTRACTED BY OUTSIDE PERSON OBJECT OR EVENT 2.727352e+212
## `Driver Distracted By`EATING OR DRINKING Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`INATTENTIVE OR LOST IN THOUGHT 4.616402e+275
## `Driver Distracted By`LOOKED BUT DID NOT SEE 2.302120e+249
## `Driver Distracted By`Manually Operating (dialing, playing game, etc.) Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`NO DRIVER PRESENT 2.418457e+268
## `Driver Distracted By`Not Distracted 9.549407e-02
## `Driver Distracted By`NOT DISTRACTED 1.190605e+281
## `Driver Distracted By`Other Action (looking away from task, etc.) 0.000000e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER CELLULAR PHONE RELATED 1.924628e+284
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER DISTRACTION 2.360632e+283
## `Driver Distracted By`OTHER ELECTRONIC DEVICE (NAVIGATIONAL PALM PILOT) Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`SMOKING RELATED Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`TALKING OR LISTENING TO CELLULAR PHONE 5.632831e+234
## `Driver Distracted By`Talking/listening 7.975130e+00
## `Driver Distracted By`TEXTING FROM A CELLULAR PHONE 4.861839e+293
## `Driver Distracted By`Unknown NA
## `Driver Distracted By`UNKNOWN 7.035178e+229
## `Driver Distracted By`USING DEVICE OBJECT BROUGHT INTO VEHICLE Inf
## `Driver Distracted By`USING OTHER DEVICE CONTROLS INTEGRAL TO VEHICLE Inf#Logistic Regression Model Interpretation The logistic regression model shows that the predictors significantly improve the fit compared to the null model (residual deviance = 471.26 vs. null deviance = 652.96, AIC = 603.26). Significant variables, such as weather conditions, driver distraction, and surface conditions, increase the likelihood of incidents. The barplots support this by showing higher counts in these categories. Together, the analysis suggests that both environmental and human factors play a key role in predicting incidents.
#Model Diagnostics (Confusion Matrix)
#Predictions
crash_clean$pred_prob <- predict(model, type = "response")
#Classify using 0.5 threshold
pred_class <- factor(ifelse(crash_clean$pred_prob >= 0.5, 1, 0), levels = c(0,1))
actual_class <- factor(crash_clean$injury_bin, levels = c(0,1))
# Create confusion matrix table
table(pred_class, actual_class)## actual_class
## pred_class 0 1
## 0 185092 34
## 1 0 0#Interpretation of the Confusion Matrix
The confusion matrix shows that the model predicts almost all cases as non-injury (0). There are 185,092 true negatives, meaning non-injury cases were correctly classified. There are 34 false negatives, meaning injury cases were incorrectly predicted as non-injury. The model did not predict any cases as injury, resulting in zero true positives and zero false positives. This indicates that the model has very high specificity but zero sensitivity, meaning it completely fails to identify injured cases. The model is biased toward the majority class because the data are highly imbalanced, with very few injury or fatal cases compared to non-injury cases. Therefore, The logistic regression model performs poorly at detecting injury cases because it predicts only the majority class. Although overall accuracy appears high, the model has no practical value for identifying injured drivers in its current form.
#ROC curve and AUC
# Install pROC if not already installed
if(!require(pROC)) install.packages("pROC")## Loading required package: pROC## Warning: package 'pROC' was built under R version 4.5.2## Type 'citation("pROC")' for a citation.##
## Attaching package: 'pROC'## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
##
## cov, smooth, var# Load the package
library(pROC)
#ROC curve and AUC
roc_obj <- roc(actual_class, crash_clean$pred_prob)## Setting levels: control = 0, case = 1## Setting direction: controls < casesplot(roc_obj, main = "ROC Curve for Injury Prediction Model")
auc(roc_obj)## Area under the curve: 0.9702#Interpretation of the ROC Curve
The ROC curve shows the relationship between sensitivity (true positive rate) and specificity (true negative rate) for the injury prediction model. The curve rises steeply toward the top left area of the graph, which indicates that the model has some ability to distinguish between injury and non-injury cases. However, the curve stays close to the vertical and upper edges because the dataset is highly imbalanced, with far more non-injury cases than injury cases. This shape suggests that the model performs better at identifying non-injury cases than injury cases. Overall, the model shows limited practical value for real-world injury prediction because it struggles to correctly classify rare injury events despite appearing strong visually.
#Key findings The model showed high overall accuracy, but this was driven mainly by the large number of non-injury cases. Sensitivity was very low, meaning the model failed to correctly identify most injury cases. Specificity was very high, indicating the model accurately classified non-injury cases. The predictors (weather, surface condition, and driver distraction) showed weak predictive strength when used alone. Rare injury cases led to poor model convergence and unstable probability estimates.
#Conclusion
The logistic regression results suggest that while environmental and behavioral factors contribute to crash outcomes, they are not sufficient by themselves to reliably predict driver injury. Additional variables and improved modeling techniques would be required to increase predictive performance.
#Future Directions
Future research should address the strong class imbalance by collecting more injury cases or using techniques such as oversampling, undersampling, or synthetic data generation. Incorporating additional predictors, such as driver demographics, vehicle type, speed, and traffic conditions, could improve the model’s predictive power. Advanced modeling approaches, including ensemble methods or machine learning algorithms, may better capture complex interactions between factors. Finally, combining statistical analysis with visual tools like barplots can enhance understanding of high-risk scenarios and guide targeted interventions for driver safety.
#References Crash Reporting - Drivers Data https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/crash-reporting-drivers-data