Introduction
I’ve always wondered whether a football player’s nationality affects how much clubs are willing to pay for them. Are some players consistently overvalued or undervalued just because of where they come from? To find out, I’m diving into a large dataset of player transfers, comparing the prices clubs actually paid to independent estimates of what each player is “worth.” I’ll be looking at the differences in money, the percentage over- or underpayment, and using techniques to make sure extreme cases don’t skew the results. By exploring the numbers in a few different ways, I hope to uncover whether nationality really plays a role in how players are valued in the football world.
I’m curious whether players from certain nationalities, who often command higher transfer fees and market values, might also be more likely to succeed on the field. It seems possible that financial perception could reflect actual talent.
Primary Source: Transfer Fee Paid vs Player Market Value
The dataset I will be using was found on Github. It records data for over 80,000 player transfers from clubs all over the world from 2009-2021.
To understand whether a player’s nationality influences their transfer price, we need a baseline for comparison, or essentially, what the player “should” cost based on their perceived talent and performance. Market value provides this benchmark: it’s an independent estimate of a player’s worth created by football experts who evaluate factors like age, skill level, recent performance, and position. The actual transfer fee is what clubs ultimately agree to pay, which can be influenced by many factors including negotiating power, urgency, and potentially bias. By comparing these two numbers, what experts think a player is worth versus what clubs actually pay, we can identify systematic patterns. If players from certain countries consistently sell for more or less than their estimated market value, after accounting for other relevant factors, this suggests nationality itself may be playing a role in how the transfer market values players.
Descriptive Analysis (Pt. 1)
These bar graphs show the nationalities whose players are, on average, most overvalued or undervalued in the transfer market. The first graph highlights the top 10 most valued nationalities, meaning clubs tend to pay more than what the players are estimated to be worth. The second graph shows the top 10 least valued nationalities, where players are generally paid less than their market value. The height of each bar represents how much above or below “fair value” players from that nationality are typically transferred, giving a clear picture of which nationalities are over or under-appreciated in football transfers.
The graph shows an interesting pattern: among the most overvalued players, about half are from Europe, Brazil, & Argentina, which are also commonly seen as expensive markets. This makes sense because clubs sometimes pay extra for players from these countries, either because of reputation, hype, or strong performance.
However, when we look at the most undervalued players, nearly all of them are European. This might seem surprising at first, but it can be explained by how the data works. Many European players have higher market values to begin with, so even if a few are sold for less than expected, it can push them into the underpaid category. In contrast, players from Africa, South America, or smaller leagues often have lower market values, so even modest transfer fees can look like fair or slightly overpaid deals. Also, the filters in the analysis—like only looking at players above a certain market value—mean that smaller transfers from outside Europe don’t show up in the underpaid list.
The boxplots show the typical overpayment or underpayment for players from each nationality. The horizontal line at 0 represents a “fair” transfer, where the club paid roughly what the player was worth. Boxes above 0 indicate that, on average, players from that nationality were paid more than their market value, while boxes below 0 show that they were paid less than their market value. The height of the boxes and the whiskers show the range and variation in premiums, so we can see not just the average but also how consistent or extreme transfers tend to be for each nationality.
The graph clearly shows which nationalities tend to be overvalued in football transfers, with Uruguay, Ghana, and Italy at the top of the list. Interestingly, countries like Portugal, Spain, France, and Germany, often thought of as producing highly sought-after players, don’t appear as highly overvalued in this graph. One reason for this could be that players from these popular countries often already have higher market values, so the clubs’ transfer fees tend to be closer to what they’re considered “worth.” In contrast, players from other countries may occasionally command higher fees relative to their market value, which pushes their average premiums up. Overall, the graph suggests that overvaluation isn’t solely tied to how popular or well-known a country’s players are, but also depends on individual transfer patterns and market dynamics.
I chose to compare Egypt and Morocco to the “Big Six” because these two African nations have produced world-class players, like Mohamed Salah from Egypt and Achraf Hakimi from Morocco, who perform at the highest level in football. Despite their talent and success, the average transfer premiums for players from Egypt and Morocco are much lower than for players from the “Big Six” countries. This is significant because it shows that clubs often pay much more than market value for European players even when the performance is similar. It highlights how nationality can influence a player’s market value and transfer fees, revealing a clear bias in the football market.
Secondary Source: UCL Top Contributors
Next, we’ll dive into player performance and stats to see if nationality is influencing market value, specifically UEFA Champions League data. This data comes directly from Wikipedia. By comparing things like goals, assists, ratings, and minutes played, we can look for cases where players with similar performance levels have very different market values. We’ll explore both individual players and larger nationality trends to see whether nationality itself seems to affect how much clubs are willing to pay.
Descriptive Analysis (Pt. 2)
Let’s take a look at the highest level of club football: UEFA Champions League (UCL). The top goal scorers in the UCL reveal a diverse mix of nationalities, highlighting that elite performance is not confined to a single country or region. Players from nations often perceived as having lower market value, based on stereotypes or transfer market premiums, consistently rank among the best scorers, challenging assumptions about which nationalities are “worth more” in football.
1/3 of the top 15 all-time great goal scorers of this competition come from nationalities not typically associated with players possessing high market values and expensive transfer fees:
- POLAND: Lewandowski
- NORWAY: Haaland
- EGYPT: Salah
- UKRAINE: Shevchenko
- SWEDEN: Ibrahimovic
This demonstrates that exceptional talent emerges globally and that market valuations do not always align with actual performance at the highest level.
Robert Lewandowski, Polish national team player, 3rd all-time UCL goal scorer
Conclusion
The data clearly shows that nationality plays a role in how players are valued in the transfer market, with some nationalities consistently overpaid while others are undervalued. However, when we look at the best goal scorers in the UEFA Champions League, it becomes clear that exceptional talent can come from anywhere, such as Egypt, Norway, or other nations that are not traditionally seen as “elite” football countries. Players like Mohammed Salah and Erling Haaland prove that at the highest level, performance is what truly matters. In other words, while nationality may influence perception and market price, it does not limit who can succeed on the world’s biggest stages.
Exceptional players emerge from a wide range of countries, demonstrating that while the market may assign value based on perception or reputation, true talent is universal and can shine regardless of where a player comes from.
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There is progress to be made, but the beautiful game continues to show us that excellence can come from anywhere, and the future of football is bright and inclusive.
Thanks for reading,
Stephen Pelle
