Hypothesis Testing Assignment

Brooke Stimmel



Matched Case-Control Study of a Multistate E. coli O157:H7 Outbreak Linked to Raw Cookie Dough, United States, 2009

Summary of Findings

In a 1:1 matched case-control study of 36 E. coli O157:H7 cases and 36 controls matched by age group, sex, and state of residence, consumption of raw cookie dough was strongly associated with illness. Results of this analysis are summarized in Table 2. Among cases, 91.7% reported eating raw cookie dough compared with 11.1% of controls, yielding a matched odds ratio of 41.2 (95% confidence interval 7.37 – >999.99; p <0.001). In contrast, the other hypothesized exposures from the hypothesis-generation phase (strawberries, ground beef, apples, and fruit rollups) had similar exposure frequencies among cases and controls and matched odds ratios with confidence intervals that included the null value, indicating no statistically significant association with illness in the matched analysis. These results support the conclusion that consumption of raw cookie dough was the most likely vehicle for this multistate outbreak of E. coli O157:H7 infection.

Table 2. Results of the matched analysis for case-control study conducted during the E. coli O157:H7 cluster 0905MAEXH-1 outbreak investigation, June 17 – June 19, 2009.
Food Item Case N (%) Control N (%) Matched Odds Ratio (95% C.I.\(^{a}\)) p-value
Raw cookie dough 33 (91.7%) 4 (11.1%) 41.2 (7.37 – >999.99) <0.001
Strawberries 18 (50%) 14 (38.9%) 2.2 (0.76–6.33) 0.14
Ground beef 27 (75%) 26 (72.2%) 3.5 (0.73–16.85) 0.12
Ice cream/frozen desserts not containing cookie dough 11 (30.6%) 26 (72.2%) 0.25 (0.03–2.24) 0.21
Hot dogs 7 (19.4%) 15 (41.7%) 0.5 (0.13–2) 0.33
Smoothies 2 (5.6%) 5 (13.9%) 0.5 (0.09–2.73) 0.42
Bologna 3 (8.3%) 7 (19.4%) 0.5 (0.09–2.73) 0.42
Mandarin oranges 2 (5.6%) 6 (16.7%) 0.5 (0.09–2.73) 0.42
Bacon 10 (27.8%) 10 (27.8%) 1.67 (0.4–6.97) 0.48
Raw carrots 9 (25%) 17 (47.2%) 0.67 (0.19–2.36) 0.53
Fruit rollups 9 (25%) 6 (16.7%) 1.5 (0.42–5.32) 0.53
Apples 18 (50%) 19 (52.8%) 1.4 (0.44–4.41) 0.57
Chocolate chips\(^{b}\) 10 (27.8%) 12 (33.3%) 2 (0.5–8) 0.33
Cucumbers 7 (19.4%) 13 (36.1%) 0.75 (0.17–3.35) 0.71
Grapes 12 (33.3%) 17 (47.2%) 1 (0.32–3.1) 1
Raspberries 3 (8.3%) 5 (13.9%) 1 (0.14–7.1) 1
Smoothies from smoothie shop 2 (5.6%) 2 (5.6%) 1 (0.14–7.1) 1
Cantaloupe 5 (13.9%) 6 (16.7%) 1.33 (0.3–5.96) 0.71
Watermelon 5 (13.9%) 6 (16.7%) 1.5 (0.25–8.98) 0.66
Milk 20 (55.6%) 29 (80.6%) 2 (0.18–22.06) 0.57
\(^{a}\) 95% CI = 95% confidence interval
\(^{b}\) Chocolate chips not consumed as part of raw commercial cookie dough.