Traverse City, Michigan: Market Analysis & Investment Thesis
Public Safety Analysis | Economic Diversification | Multifamily Market Fundamentals
Ridge 45 Investment Team
November 28, 2025
Data Sources & Methodology
All data in this report comes from official U.S. government sources:
Crime Statistics - Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer (5-year average Nov 2020-2025) | Agency-level reporting - Period: November 2020 - November 2025 (60-month average) - Peer Set: 15 markets including Traverse City, U.S. national average, and major institutional investment markets - Metric: Violent crime rate per 100,000 population - Citation: FBI Crime Data Explorer
Employment Statistics - Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) - Year: 2024 annual averages - Access: BLS QCEW Open Data - Coverage: Private sector employment only (excludes government jobs) - Geographic Level: County-level data (FIPS codes) - Tourism Definition: NAICS sectors 71 (Arts/Entertainment/Recreation) + 72 (Accommodation/Food Services)
Executive Summary
This analysis supports Ridge 45, a Class A multifamily investment in Traverse City, Michigan, by demonstrating favorable market fundamentals across three critical dimensions: public safety risk profile, economic diversification, and multifamily demand drivers.
Public Safety: Traverse City’s 5-year average violent crime rate (297.3 per 100k) ranks 10% below the U.S. national average and materially outperforms major institutional investment markets including Austin, Dallas, Denver, Nashville, and Minneapolis.
Economic Diversification: Grand Traverse County’s employment base is anchored by healthcare, retail, and manufacturing, with tourism representing only 14.7% of total employment—comparable to diversified regional centers and dramatically lower than resort-dependent markets (Branson 43%, Jackson Hole 42%, Vail 34%).
Market Fundamentals: The competitive market contains 8,470 multifamily units (212% of CoStar’s default estimate), positioning Ridge 45’s 484 units at 5.7% market share. Strong demand is evidenced by 19,329 daily in-commuters and Ridge 45 Phase 3’s 3-month absorption of 86 units.
Investment Thesis: The combination of below-average crime rates, non-cyclical employment diversity, and demonstrated institutional-quality housing demand supports Ridge 45’s positioning in a market with favorable risk-adjusted return characteristics relative to primary institutional investment markets.
Public Safety Analysis: Violent Crime Risk Assessment
Crime Rate Benchmarking Methodology
Crime statistics are normalized as rates per 100,000 population to enable size-adjusted comparisons across markets. All data sourced from FBI Crime Data Explorer to ensure methodological consistency across geographies.
Data Source: FBI Crime Data Explorer (5-year average Nov 2020-2025) | Agency-level reporting Citation: FBI Crime Data Explorer Period: November 2020 - November 2025 (5-year average) Metric: Violent Crime Rate per 100,000 population Peer Set (15 markets): Traverse City, Overland Park, Bentonville, Madison, Bozeman, San Diego, Burlington, Austin, Dallas, Portland, Denver, Nashville, Minneapolis, Albuquerque + U.S. National Average
Comparative Violent Crime Analysis
Violent Crime Risk Profile - Traverse City, MI
Benchmark Performance: Traverse City’s 5-year average violent crime rate of 297.3 per 100,000 population positions 10% below the national average (332.1 per 100k), ranking 3rd among the 15-city peer set analyzed.
Peer Market Comparison: Traverse City demonstrates materially lower violent crime rates than major institutional multifamily markets including Austin (494.7), Dallas (718.9), Denver (972.9), Nashville (1,137.4), Minneapolis (1,153.4), and Albuquerque (1,276.9).
Risk Assessment: The below-average violent crime profile supports favorable resident retention dynamics and positions the market advantageously relative to primary institutional investment markets experiencing elevated crime rates.
Economic Diversification Analysis
Comparing Traverse City to Peer Cities
Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)
- Year: 2024 annual averages
- Coverage: Private sector employment only
- Geographic Level: County (FIPS codes listed below)
- Industry Classification: NAICS 2-digit sectors
- Tourism Definition: NAICS 71 (Arts/Entertainment/Recreation) + NAICS 72 (Accommodation/Food Services)
- Download: BLS QCEW Open Data Files
This analysis compares Traverse City’s economic structure to two distinct groups:
- Diversified Regional Centers: Cities with balanced employment across multiple sectors
- Tourism-Dependent Communities: Resort towns where accommodation and entertainment drive the economy
Tourism Employment Comparison
Critical Insight: Traverse City’s tourism employment (14.7%) is similar to other diversified regional centers like Des Moines (10.7%) and Green Bay (11.1%), and dramatically lower than tourism-dependent communities like Branson (43.2%) or Jackson Hole (42.4%).
| Location | Total Employment | Tourism Jobs | Tourism % | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taney County, MO (Branson) | 25,956 | 11,224 | 43.2% | Tourism-Heavy |
| Teton County, WY (Jackson Hole) | 20,645 | 8,750 | 42.4% | Tourism-Heavy |
| Eagle County, CO (Vail) | 31,770 | 10,902 | 34.3% | Tourism-Heavy |
| Walton County, FL | 30,627 | 8,596 | 28.1% | Moderate |
| Grand Traverse County, MI (Traverse City) | 46,116 | 6,789 | 14.7% | Diversified |
| Boulder County, CO (Boulder) | 162,878 | 20,101 | 12.3% | Diversified |
| Brown County, WI (Green Bay) | 140,980 | 15,731 | 11.1% | Diversified |
| Polk County, IA (Des Moines) | 279,231 | 29,761 | 10.7% | Diversified |
Employment Distribution by Sector
Traverse City Employment Breakdown
Economic Structure: Traverse City’s economy is anchored by Healthcare (23.7%), followed by Retail Trade and Manufacturing. Tourism-related sectors (Accommodation/Food + Arts/Entertainment) represent 14.7% of total employment, demonstrating a well-diversified regional economy.
Market Analysis: Competitive Inventory and Demand Drivers
Market Definition and Competitive Inventory
Accurate market sizing is essential for competitive positioning analysis and portfolio concentration risk assessment. CoStar’s default market boundaries for Traverse City encompass approximately 4,000 multifamily units. A custom polygon methodology utilizing U.S. Census population density data provides a more precise competitive market definition aligned with actual rental demand concentrations.
Competitive Market Boundaries
The map below illustrates the custom market polygon for Greater Traverse City, with each point representing a multifamily property location within the defined competitive market area:
The density-based polygon methodology identified 8,470 total multifamily units within the competitive market area, representing 212% of CoStar’s default market inventory estimate of approximately 4,000 units. This refined market definition captures population-dense rental demand centers while excluding low-density rural areas incorporated in broader market boundaries.
Population Density Justification
The custom polygon was defined using U.S. Census population density data to ensure the market boundary captures the actual residential population centers that represent the competitive rental market.
Michigan Population Density Overview
Traverse City Area Population Density (Zoomed)
The custom polygon methodology aligns market boundaries with census tracts exhibiting higher population density (darker blue areas in maps above), capturing the true competitive rental market while excluding rural areas included in CoStar’s default market definition. The resulting 8,470-unit inventory represents the competitive supply for institutional-quality multifamily housing in population-dense areas of the Greater Traverse City region.
Housing Demand Fundamentals
The Traverse City market demonstrates compelling demand drivers for institutional-quality multifamily housing. According to U.S. Census Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES), 19,329 workers commute into Grand Traverse County daily from outside the county, representing a significant untapped rental demand pool.
This latent demand is validated by recent market performance: Ridge 45 Phase 3 achieved full lease-up of 86 units in 3 months, demonstrating strong absorption velocity and confirming robust demand for new institutional-grade multifamily product.
Investment Implication: The combination of substantial daily in-commuter volume (19,329 workers) and proven rapid absorption rates indicates undersupplied demand for quality rental housing, supporting the investment thesis for additional institutional multifamily development in the Greater Traverse City market.
Investment Considerations
Market Concentration: Ridge 45’s 5.7% market share in the density-defined polygon (vs. 12% in default market) indicates a larger, less concentrated competitive landscape with reduced single-property exposure risk
Development Runway: 8,470 units across a geographically distributed market suggests capacity for additional institutional development without material oversupply risk
Institutional Scale: Market inventory exceeds 8,000 units, demonstrating sufficient scale to support institutional investment strategies and capital deployment
Demand Validation: Daily in-commuter volume of 19,329 workers combined with 3-month absorption of 86 units confirms undersupplied institutional-quality product demand
Conclusions
Economic Classification
Based on comprehensive employment data analysis, Traverse City functions as a diversified regional economic center, not a tourism-dependent community.
Key Evidence:
Tourism Employment: At 14.7%, Traverse City’s tourism sector is:
- Similar to diversified cities: Des Moines (10.7%), Green Bay (11.1%), Boulder (12.3%)
- Dramatically lower than resort towns: Branson (43.2%), Jackson Hole (42.4%), Vail (34.3%)
Economic Anchors: Healthcare, retail trade, and manufacturing provide stable, year-round employment
Regional Center Role: Serves as economic hub for Northern Michigan with diversified service sectors
Public Safety Risk Assessment
Traverse City demonstrates favorable public safety metrics relative to the national benchmark and primary institutional investment markets, based on FBI Crime Data Explorer 5-year average data (Nov 2020-Nov 2025, 15-city peer set):
Violent Crime Benchmarking: - 10% below U.S. national average (297.3 vs. 332.1 per 100k) - Ranks 3rd of 15 cities in violent crime safety metrics - Materially outperforms major institutional markets: Austin (494.7), Dallas (718.9), Denver (972.9), Nashville (1,137.4), Minneapolis (1,153.4), Albuquerque (1,276.9) - Two markets demonstrate lower rates: Overland Park, KS (197.8) and Bentonville, AR (245.7)
Investment Implication: The below-average violent crime profile supports favorable resident retention characteristics and positions Traverse City advantageously relative to primary institutional markets experiencing elevated crime rates, potentially supporting stable occupancy and reduced turnover costs.
Investment Thesis Summary
The diversified economic base and favorable public safety profile present the following institutional investment considerations:
- Economic Resilience: Diversified employment base reduces exposure to single-sector economic volatility, supporting stable rental demand across business cycles
- Year-Round Demand Drivers: Non-tourism-dependent employment structure (88% of jobs) generates consistent rental demand across all seasons
- Resident Quality Metrics: Below-average crime rates combined with diversified economic opportunity support favorable resident credit profiles and retention rates
- Downside Protection: Multi-sector economic structure provides portfolio-level resilience against sector-specific economic disruptions
Appendix: Data Tables
Complete Employment Data
Report Generated: November 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM
Analysis Period: 2023-2024
Data Sources: - Crime: Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, 2023 - Employment: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), 2024
Full Citations: - FBI. (2024). Crime in the United States, 2023. U.S. Department of Justice. - U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2024). Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/cew/
For questions about methodology or data sources, contact RMP Analysis Team