BRMS: Forecast UCL2526 results

1 WorkFlow

• Data available:

  • European leagues (EURO) from 2023 to 2026
  • UEFA Champion League (UCL) from 2023 to 2026
  • EURO included (SP1: Spain; E0: English; D1: Dutch; I1: Italy; F1: France)

• Model (ucl & euro):

  • To use 2023 to 2026 ucl & euro data
  • Create train & test

• Evaluating quality predictions

• Forecast UCL2526 results

2 Data (EURO & UCL)

2.1 EURO

• euro2324, euro2425 & euro2526 (actual season)
• Leagues: SP1: Spain, E0: English, D1: Dutch, I1: Italy, F1: France

Rows: 7,022
Columns: 6
$ date      <date> 2021-08-13, 2021-08-14, 2021-08-14, 2021-08-14, 2021-08-14, 2021-08-14, 20…
$ cup       <chr> "euro2122E0", "euro2122E0", "euro2122E0", "euro2122E0", "euro2122E0", "euro…
$ home_team <chr> "Brentford", "Man United", "Burnley", "Chelsea", "Everton", "Leicester", "W…
$ away_team <chr> "Arsenal", "Leeds", "Brighton", "Crystal Palace", "Southampton", "Wolves", …
$ home_goal <dbl> 2, 5, 1, 3, 3, 1, 3, 0, 2, 1, 2, 2, 0, 2, 5, 2, 1, 0, 0, 4, 5, 1, 0, 2, 1, …
$ away_goal <dbl> 0, 1, 2, 0, 1, 0, 2, 3, 4, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 2, 2, …

2.2 UCL

• UEFA Champion League: ucl2324, ucl2425 & ucl2526 (current season)

• FIFA World Cup 2025 (fwc25)

3 Data to run BRMS model

3.1 Real Madrid home team goals difference

3.2 Real Madrid away team goals difference

3.3 Split data (80-20)

4 Run BRMA Evaluation Quality Prediction

• MSE a statistical measure of the average of the squares of the errors between estimated and actual values.

• Hit rate is a metric that measures the success rate of correct prediction.

• The log loss value is the negative log-likelihood of the model, where a lower value indicates better predictive accuracy.

4.1 EURO-UCL models

4.2 Plot: Evaluation data test goals distribution

5 Run BRMA for Prediction

5.1 Create schedule (sch)

• UCL schedule
  
• EURO schedule

Rows: 654
Columns: 3
$ cup       <chr> "euro2526E0", "euro2526E0", "euro2526E0", "euro2526E0", "euro2526E0", "euro…
$ home_team <chr> "Liverpool", "Aston Villa", "Brighton", "Sunderland", "Tottenham", "Wolves"…
$ away_team <chr> "Bournemouth", "Newcastle", "Fulham", "West Ham", "Burnley", "Man City", "C…

6 Evaluating quality predictions

7 Forecast