Mapping the 2025 Federal Election: First Preferences Across Australia

Sherya Attilli – S4143153

November 2025

Introduction

Australia’s 2025 House of Representatives first-preference votes show a more fragmented party system than the traditional two-party narrative suggests.

In this short data story we will look at:

  • National first-preference share by party
  • How votes cluster into major blocs (Labor, Coalition, Greens, Others)
  • Which parties are gaining or losing primary support (swing)

Data

Summary of parties, seats contested/won, primary vote and swing (national)
party_ab party_name seats_contested seats_won primary_pct swing_pct
ALP Australian Labor Party 150 94 34.56 1.98
LP Liberal 106 18 20.69 -3.20
LNP Liberal National Party of Queensland 30 16 7.10 -0.90
NP The Nationals 19 9 3.80 0.20
CLP Country Liberal Party (NT) 2 0 0.23 0.03
GRN The Greens 150 1 12.20 -0.05
XEN Centre Alliance 1 1 0.24 -0.01
KAP Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) 3 1 0.33 -0.05
IND Independent 88 10 7.27 1.98
ON Pauline Hanson’s One Nation 147 0 6.40 1.44
CYA Trumpet of Patriots 100 0 1.91 1.52
FFP Family First Party Australia 92 0 1.77 1.77
LTP Libertarian Party 46 0 0.54 0.54
HMP Legalise Cannabis Australia 42 0 1.20 1.16
CEC Australian Citizens Party 19 0 0.13 0.10
GRPF Gerard Rennick People First 19 0 0.46 0.46
AJP Animal Justice Party 18 0 0.23 -0.37
SOPA FUSION | Planet Rescue | Whistleblower Protection | Innovation 13 0 0.09 0.00
AUC Australian Christians 10 0 0.20 0.06
ASP Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party 8 0 0.17 0.04
SAL Socialist Alliance 6 0 0.12 0.04
IMO Health Environment Accountability Rights Transparency (HEART) 4 0 0.03 -0.15
VNS Victorian Socialists 4 0 0.15 -0.04
IAP Indigenous - Aboriginal Party of Australia 3 0 0.04 -0.01
AUD Australian Democrats 1 0 0.00 0.00
GAP The Great Australian Party 1 0 0.01 -0.20
NAFD Non Affiliated 4 0 0.09 0.08

National first-preference votes by party

Major blocs vs minor parties

Which parties are gaining or losing?

Seats contested vs seats won

Key takeaways

  • No single party commands a majority of first-preference votes.
  • The Labor–Coalition duopoly still dominates, but:
    • Greens and other/minor parties together hold a significant share of the primary vote.
  • Swing patterns show which parties are consolidating support and which are going backwards.
  • Election outcomes now depend heavily on:
    • Preference flows
    • How widely minor-party support is distributed

Australia’s federal elections are increasingly shaped by a multi-party primary field, not just a simple two-party contest.

References

Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) 2025, House of Representatives first preference votes by party – National totals (CSV dataset), Australian Electoral Commission, viewed , https://www.aec.gov.au.