The Maple Leaf Report

Canadian Economic Performance Report

Author

CAA

Published

November 20, 2025

Section 1: Government of Canada Yield Curve

The yield curve shows the relationship between bond yields and their maturities. An inverted curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) has historically preceded recessions. The Bank of Canada provides daily data on Government of Canada bond yields.

Current Yield Curve Snapshot

Metric Latest 1M Ago 6M Ago 1Y Ago Δ 1M Δ 6M Δ 1Y
2-Year 2.49 2.37 2.53 3.21 ▲ ▼ ▼
3-Year 2.49 2.38 2.55 3.18 ▲ ▼ ▼
5-Year 2.82 2.65 2.77 3.15 ▲ ▲ ▼
7-Year 2.96 2.79 2.95 3.24 ▲ ▲ ▼
10-Year 3.25 3.09 3.17 3.32 ▲ ▲ ▼

Historical Yield Curves

10-Year minus 2-Year Spread

The yield spread between 10-year and 2-year Government of Canada bonds is a key recession indicator. Negative values (inversion) often precede economic downturns.

Section 2: Credit Markets and Risk

Credit spreads measure the additional yield investors demand for taking on corporate credit risk. Widening spreads indicate increasing concern about default risk and economic stress.

Credit Market Indicators

**Data unavailable**
**Chart unavailable**

Note: Canadian corporate bond spread data is less centralized than US data. Additional financial market indicators can be sourced from Statistics Canada Table 10-10-0122-01.

Section 3: Labour Markets

Employment data provides crucial signals about economic health. The unemployment rate, labor force participation, and job growth all indicate the strength of the economy.

Labour Force Summary

Metric Latest 1M Ago 6M Ago 1Y Ago Δ 1M Δ 6M Δ 1Y
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.9 7.1 6.9 6.6 ▼ — ▲
Employment (000s) 21081.9 21015.3 20969.3 20782.6 ▲ ▲ ▲
Participation Rate (%) 65.3 65.2 65.3 65.2 ▲ — ▲

Section 4: Real Economy Activity

Real economy indicators track actual production, sales, and construction activity. These metrics provide insight into current economic momentum beyond financial markets.

Real Economy Summary

Metric Latest 1M Ago 6M Ago 1Y Ago Δ 1M Δ 6M Δ 1Y
Housing Starts (units) 70446 74657 47309 62135 ▼ ▲ ▲

Section 5: Inflation

Inflation tracking is critical for understanding purchasing power and monetary policy direction. Statistics Canada tracks the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its components.

Inflation Summary

Metric Latest 1M Ago 6M Ago 1Y Ago Δ 1M Δ 6M Δ 1Y
CPI Inflation (YoY %) 2.16 2.36 1.74 2.02 ▼ ▲ ▲
Core CPI (ex food/energy, YoY %) 2.69 2.44 2.59 2.28 ▲ ▲ ▲

Section 6: GDP and Business Conditions

GDP growth and business lending conditions provide macro-level insight into economic expansion or contraction.

GDP Summary

**Data unavailable**

Section 7: Census Metropolitan Areas Growth Matrix

This section analyzes the relationship between population growth and economic (GDP) growth across Canada’s major metropolitan areas.

The Growth Map: People, Productivity, and Place

Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) show varying trajectories of economic and demographic growth. This scatter plot reveals the top 0 metropolitan areas which are experiencing balanced growth (both population and GDP increasing), productivity gains (GDP growing faster than population), or demographic pressure (population growing faster than economic output).

**Note:** CMA data unavailable. Check data tables.

Interpretation Quadrants

  • Upper Right (High Pop, High GDP): Strong balanced growth metros
  • Upper Left (Low Pop, High GDP): Productivity-driven growth, potential housing constraints
  • Lower Right (High Pop, Low GDP): Demographic pressure, economic challenges
  • Lower Left (Low/Negative Both): Declining metros, potential restructuring
**Data unavailable**
**Note:** CMA data unavailable or incomplete for animation.

Report Summary

This comprehensive macro monitor tracks 7 key dimensions of economic health using exclusively free public data sources. All data is sourced from Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada and updated automatically when the report is regenerated.

Data Sources Summary

Primary Sources: - Statistics Canada (cansim package) - Labour force, retail, manufacturing, housing, inflation, GDP, CMA data - Bank of Canada Valet API (valet package) - Interest rates, bond yields, exchange rates - No API keys required - All data is open and freely accessible

Data Frequencies: - Daily: Bond yields, interest rates, exchange rates - Monthly: Employment, retail sales, manufacturing, housing starts, CPI - Quarterly: GDP - Annual: CMA GDP and population data

To Run This Report

  1. Install R and Quarto (https://quarto.org)

  2. Install Required Packages:

   install.packages(c("tidyverse", "cansim", "valet", "lubridate", 
                      "scales", "knitr", "kableExtra", "plotly", 
                      "httr", "jsonlite", "zoo", "ggrepel"))
  1. Render the Report:
   quarto render The_Maple_Leaf_Report.qmd

Key Statistics Canada Tables Used

  • 36-10-0468-01: GDP by Census Metropolitan Area
  • 17-10-0135-01: CMA population estimates
  • 14-10-0287-01: Labour force characteristics
  • 20-10-0008-01: Retail trade sales
  • 16-10-0048-01: Manufacturing sales
  • 34-10-0135-01: Housing starts
  • 18-10-0004-01: Consumer Price Index
  • 36-10-0104-01: GDP by expenditure
  • 10-10-0122-01: Financial market statistics

Customization Options

Adjust lookback periods: Modify date filters in chart creation
Add more CMAs: Expand Section 7 to include all 41 CMAs
Change chart themes: Modify ggplot2 theme settings
Export data tables: Add CSV export functionality
Automate scheduling: Use GitHub Actions or cron jobs for daily/weekly updates
Provincial breakdowns: Filter data by province for regional analysis

Report generated: 2025-11-20 12:03:10.534418
Data cached in: data_cache/ directory (24-hour default cache)

Note: This report uses Canadian data sources exclusively. The cansim package provides access to all Statistics Canada tables without requiring API keys. The valet package accesses Bank of Canada data, also without authentication requirements.