Global natural gas consumption has increased steadily from 1980 to 2025. This trendline indicates a strong long-term upward trend in the future. Energy consumption growth is likely driven by population increase and industrial expansion.A sharp drop near the year 2010 is because of the 2008 economic reccession.
The US natural gas consumption experienced a sharp increase near the year 2020. This sudden growth is likely driven by mass LNG production as well as the booming of hydraulic fracking, making natural gas much cheaper. Also, around the year 2008, when the economic recession began, the US didn’t experience sharp drop as dramatic as the world. This is a reminder that as a superpowerful country, our mistakes are amplified globally, and the impacts that the world has to suffer are much larger than we do.
Math Model To Predict Natural Gas Consumption In The Future
A simple model for predicting future natural gas consumption is the linear trend model:
\[ \widehat{C}(t) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 t \] where
- \(\widehat{C}(t)\) = predicted consumption in year \(t\)
- \(\beta_0\) = intercept (baseline consumption)
- \(\beta_1\) = slope (average yearly increase in consumption)
*One thing to note is that since 2020, U.S. natural gas consumption has deviated drastically from the trendline. This is due to the fact that the U.S. is reshoring manufacturing plants and the emergence of AI, which requires massive construction of data centers.So the linear math model could be better fit for the world, not the U.S
R Code Used To Generate the Linear Math Model
## Math Model To Predict Natural Gas Consumption In The Future
A simple model for predicting future natural gas consumption is the linear
trend model:
$$
\widehat{C}(t) = \beta_0 + \beta_1 t
$$
where
- \( \widehat{C}(t) \) = predicted consumption in year \( t \)
- \( \beta_0 \) = intercept (baseline consumption)
- \( \beta_1 \) = slope (average yearly increase in consumption)
Annual Growth Rate of Energy Consumption
The annual percentage growth rate can be approximated by: \[ g = \frac{C_{t} - C_{t-1}}{C_{t-1}} \times 100\% \] where
- \(C_t\) = consumption in year \(t\)
- \(C_{t-1}\) = consumption in the previous year
- \(g\) = annual growth rate