| mean_p | med_p | rep_score |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4038469 | 0.3930088 | 0.0108381 |
This is the mean-median score summary for 2024 congressional results.
We can see that the score is positive for republics, meaning less D districts were won in blowouts, which could be evidence of ‘packing’ in favor of Democrats.
| mean_p | med_p | rep_score |
|---|---|---|
| 0.387257 | 0.4160567 | -0.0287997 |
This is the mean-median score summary for hypothetical re-run of the election using the new district map.
We can see after the new policy, the score is positive for democrats, meaning ‘packing’ in favor of Democrats.
We can also do a similar analysis on efficiency gap.| total_d_wasted | total_r_wasted | total_votes | EG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2594440 | 4289327 | 13767606 | -0.1231069 |
Here is the efficiency gap summary for 2024 results.
| total_d_wasted | total_r_wasted | total_votes | EG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2431088 | 5259449 | 15381149 | -0.1838849 |
Here is for hypothetical re-run.
Although both of them show a negative efficiency gap exists between democrats against republics, the gap is much more significant under the new district map. Accordingly, this also shows the new ‘packing’ is in favor of Democrats.
To visualize the full distribution of mean-median scores:Below is the distribution for 2024 congressional results 
Below is the results distribution for hypothetical re-run under the new district map 
Here is the election map for 2024 congressional results
Here is the election map for hypothetical re-run under the new district map
After a close inspection on the two election maps, we can see some districts change from republican to democrat, while some the other way around
| Party | Result_24 | Hypothetical |
|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 37 | 38 |
| Republican | 6 | 5 |
To a more precise analysis, we count the number of districts that are democrat or republican for the two maps seperately.
From the table, we can see for the hypothetical re-run, the democrat party secure one more district. This result corresponds with what we have analyzed before, that the mean-median score and the efficiancy gap both show a betterment of the situation for democrat
| District | Winning_Party_A | Winning_Party_B |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Democrat | Republican |
| 41 | Republican | Democrat |
| 48 | Republican | Democrat |
Here are the summary of all the 3 districts that change the party they supporting in the hypothetical re-run under the new map.
Firstly, you need to work hard.
Spending more than 10 hours in this project, including a continuous 5-hour-work on Friday night till 2:00 am, I can’t withstand such demanding task without a diligent mindset and profound love of Statistics.
So please take a look at my result. I will be very happy.
data source, the data cleaning procedure, the estimation process, and caveats about inferring gerrymandering from single statistics.
Use area weighted interpolation as the method to re-run the hypothetical result on the new district map
Comming soonQuestion 1 How many precincts featured two candidates from the same party?
Answer 1 
The histogram shows the number of precincts that have two candiates from the same for either republican, democrat, or any of other parties.
There are in total of 2117 number of precincts out of 33409 precincts that featured two candidates from the same party.
Question 2 Which district had the closest race?
Answer 2 
The histogram plot the difference in votes for all of the top 20 districts that have the closest race between democrat and republican parties.
From the histogram, The District that has the closest race is District 16, which has only a difference 7, followed by District 20, with a difference 16.
Question 3 Do our district totals agree with those found in the district-level results excel file?
Answer 2| District | DEM1 | DEM2 | REP1 | REP2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 110472 | 0 | 208150 | 0 |
| 2 | 272384 | 0 | 106407 | 0 |
| 3 | 187960 | 0 | 233895 | 0 |
| 4 | 227321 | 0 | 114644 | 0 |
| 5 | 134467 | 0 | 214223 | 0 |
| 6 | 165386 | 0 | 121625 | 0 |
Yes, this match approximately with the data provided in the excel file, though some minor difference (<1%) is presented.
For example, our data shows that there are 110472 votes for Democrats and 208150 for Republics at District 1. The excel shows that the actual figure is 110636 for Democrats and 208592 for Republics. To add on, this df is really useful, which is also used on calculating gerry-mandering matrix