Media Diversity Project 2
Dani Grant
2025-12-04
2025 Study
2022 + 2023 Studies
corr table (2025)
##
##
## Means, standard deviations, and correlations with confidence intervals
##
##
## Variable M SD 1 2 3
## 1. ideology 0.08 0.37
##
## 2. ethnicity 0.08 0.25 .08
## [-.43, .56]
##
## 3. NFC 0.12 0.25 -.32 -.11
## [-.70, .21] [-.58, .41]
##
## 4. SESladder 0.13 0.26 .19 -.08 .05
## [-.34, .62] [-.56, .43] [-.46, .53]
##
## 5. age 0.09 0.26 .02 .23 .00
## [-.48, .51] [-.30, .65] [-.49, .50]
##
## 6. fluCurrent -0.06 0.41 .45 .04 -.18
## [-.05, .78] [-.47, .52] [-.62, .34]
##
## 7. fluNext 0.09 0.46 -.62** -.10 .20
## [-.86, -.19] [-.57, .42] [-.33, .63]
##
## 8. mediaLiteracy 0.11 0.25 -.14 -.01 .46
## [-.59, .38] [-.50, .49] [-.05, .78]
##
## 9. vaxxHesitancy -0.01 0.45 .82** .07 -.25
## [.54, .93] [-.44, .55] [-.66, .28]
##
## 10. trustSci 0.02 0.41 -.93** -.10 .31
## [-.98, -.80] [-.57, .42] [-.22, .70]
##
## 11. vaxxNorms 0.13 0.41 -.60* -.08 .21
## [-.84, -.14] [-.56, .43] [-.32, .64]
##
## 12. genRisk 0.10 0.39 -.61* -.14 .07
## [-.85, -.16] [-.59, .39] [-.44, .55]
##
## 13. reliability 0.13 0.34 -.59* -.34 .20
## [-.84, -.14] [-.71, .19] [-.33, .63]
##
## 14. conservativeTilt 0.05 0.36 .89** .11 -.32
## [.70, .96] [-.40, .58] [-.71, .21]
##
## 15. diversity 0.15 0.26 .33 -.20 -.05
## [-.19, .71] [-.63, .33] [-.53, .46]
##
## 16. tally 0.16 0.30 -.36 -.35 .18
## [-.73, .17] [-.72, .17] [-.35, .62]
##
## 4 5 6 7 8 9
##
##
##
##
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##
##
##
##
##
##
## .00
## [-.49, .50]
##
## -.44 -.17
## [-.77, .08] [-.61, .36]
##
## .30 .13 -.96**
## [-.23, .70] [-.39, .59] [-.99, -.89]
##
## -.26 -.02 .09 -.07
## [-.67, .27] [-.51, .48] [-.42, .56] [-.55, .44]
##
## -.07 -.18 .80** -.91** -.00
## [-.54, .44] [-.62, .35] [.51, .93] [-.97, -.77] [-.50, .49]
##
## -.11 .05 -.57* .71** .09 -.91**
## [-.58, .40] [-.46, .53] [-.83, -.10] [.33, .89] [-.43, .56] [-.97, -.76]
##
## .34 .18 -.94** .96** -.07 -.88**
## [-.19, .71] [-.34, .62] [-.98, -.83] [.89, .99] [-.55, .44] [-.96, -.68]
##
## .28 -.01 -.88** .93** -.17 -.84**
## [-.25, .68] [-.50, .49] [-.96, -.68] [.80, .98] [-.62, .35] [-.94, -.60]
##
## .05 -.19 -.45 .52* .04 -.56*
## [-.46, .53] [-.62, .34] [-.77, .06] [.03, .81] [-.47, .52] [-.83, -.09]
##
## .02 .03 .52* -.65** -.11 .78**
## [-.48, .51] [-.47, .52] [.03, .81] [-.87, -.23] [-.57, .41] [.46, .92]
##
## .18 -.22 -.03 -.08 -.00 .26
## [-.34, .62] [-.65, .31] [-.52, .48] [-.55, .43] [-.50, .49] [-.28, .67]
##
## -.05 -.21 -.23 .26 .17 -.30
## [-.53, .46] [-.64, .32] [-.65, .30] [-.27, .67] [-.36, .61] [-.69, .23]
##
## 10 11 12 13 14 15
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##
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##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
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##
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##
##
##
##
##
##
##
##
## .68**
## [.27, .88]
##
## .66** .90**
## [.24, .87] [.72, .96]
##
## .59* .48 .53*
## [.14, .84] [-.02, .79] [.04, .81]
##
## -.87** -.63** -.65** -.70**
## [-.95, -.66] [-.86, -.20] [-.87, -.23] [-.89, -.32]
##
## -.35 -.07 -.03 .11 .26
## [-.72, .18] [-.54, .44] [-.52, .47] [-.41, .58] [-.28, .67]
##
## .34 .24 .27 .86** -.43 .42
## [-.19, .71] [-.29, .66] [-.26, .68] [.64, .95] [-.76, .08] [-.09, .76]
##
##
## Note. M and SD are used to represent mean and standard deviation, respectively.
## Values in square brackets indicate the 95% confidence interval.
## The confidence interval is a plausible range of population correlations
## that could have caused the sample correlation (Cumming, 2014).
## * indicates p < .05. ** indicates p < .01.
## corr table (2023)
## Warning: `aes_string()` was deprecated in ggplot2 3.0.0.
## ℹ Please use tidy evaluation idioms with `aes()`.
## ℹ See also `vignette("ggplot2-in-packages")` for more information.
## ℹ The deprecated feature was likely used in the ggcorrplot package.
## Please report the issue at <https://github.com/kassambara/ggcorrplot/issues>.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.
Analyses
Testing Individual Differences
2023
| Vaccination | Vaccination Intention | Trust in Science | Flu Risk | Vaccination Risk | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Estimates | p | Estimates | p | Estimates | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.65 | 0.001 | 1.26 | <0.001 | 2.35 | <0.001 | 4.44 | <0.001 | 2.89 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | 0.92 | 0.457 | -0.14 | 0.137 | -0.09 | 0.023 | -0.12 | 0.022 | 0.11 | 0.053 |
| bias sd 26 z | 1.26 | 0.026 | 0.15 | 0.090 | -0.01 | 0.778 | 0.07 | 0.178 | 0.08 | 0.151 |
| ideology z | 0.65 | <0.001 | -0.47 | <0.001 | -0.26 | <0.001 | -0.12 | 0.023 | 0.23 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | 0.91 | 0.423 | -0.06 | 0.539 | 0.19 | <0.001 | 0.06 | 0.276 | -0.02 | 0.720 |
| numeracy z | 1.10 | 0.475 | 0.04 | 0.685 | 0.04 | 0.340 | 0.02 | 0.713 | -0.02 | 0.730 |
| cogReflect z | 0.92 | 0.451 | 0.02 | 0.815 | -0.01 | 0.751 | -0.02 | 0.700 | -0.14 | 0.021 |
| raven z | 0.85 | 0.123 | -0.10 | 0.262 | -0.04 | 0.343 | 0.00 | 0.931 | 0.05 | 0.382 |
| subjNum z | 1.19 | 0.234 | 0.14 | 0.240 | 0.09 | 0.064 | -0.11 | 0.105 | -0.09 | 0.234 |
| intelHum z | 0.80 | 0.042 | 0.11 | 0.236 | 0.05 | 0.155 | 0.08 | 0.104 | 0.01 | 0.853 |
| cryst z | 1.22 | 0.082 | 0.10 | 0.292 | 0.03 | 0.393 | -0.00 | 0.937 | -0.04 | 0.497 |
| sciLit z | 0.84 | 0.096 | -0.04 | 0.615 | 0.06 | 0.095 | -0.05 | 0.288 | -0.02 | 0.684 |
| white 5 | 1.20 | 0.442 | 0.08 | 0.690 | 0.23 | 0.005 | -0.21 | 0.056 | -0.29 | 0.015 |
| man 5 | 0.73 | 0.180 | -0.25 | 0.192 | -0.07 | 0.400 | -0.33 | 0.003 | -0.12 | 0.324 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
1.00 | 0.966 | -0.08 | 0.388 | 0.01 | 0.837 | -0.06 | 0.272 | -0.09 | 0.125 |
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
0.82 | 0.061 | -0.29 | <0.001 | -0.01 | 0.867 | -0.04 | 0.335 | 0.01 | 0.783 |
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 1.04 | 0.705 | 0.07 | 0.420 | -0.00 | 0.900 | 0.08 | 0.094 | 0.11 | 0.036 |
| Observations | 460 | 481 | 481 | 480 | 481 | |||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.091 | 0.135 / 0.105 | 0.252 / 0.226 | 0.108 / 0.077 | 0.134 / 0.105 | |||||
2025
| Vaccination | Vaccination Intention | Trust in Science | Flu Risk | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Estimates | p | Estimates | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.65 | <0.001 | 0.19 | 0.004 | 0.99 | <0.001 | -0.81 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 40 z | 0.65 | <0.001 | -0.58 | <0.001 | -0.29 | <0.001 | -0.14 | 0.001 |
| bias sd 40 z | 1.20 | <0.001 | 0.18 | 0.001 | -0.08 | <0.001 | 0.23 | <0.001 |
| ideology z | 0.95 | 0.351 | -0.35 | <0.001 | -0.54 | <0.001 | 0.10 | 0.012 |
| nfc z | 1.08 | 0.102 | 0.18 | 0.001 | 0.14 | <0.001 | -0.10 | 0.001 |
| white 5 | 1.29 | 0.023 | 0.13 | 0.301 | 0.09 | 0.073 | 0.11 | 0.121 |
| man 5 | 0.95 | 0.576 | -0.12 | 0.246 | 0.10 | 0.022 | -0.15 | 0.012 |
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
1.19 | 0.002 | 0.22 | <0.001 | 0.08 | 0.001 | 0.06 | 0.095 |
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
0.99 | 0.827 | 0.01 | 0.836 | 0.02 | 0.368 | -0.15 | <0.001 |
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 1.08 | 0.112 | 0.08 | 0.158 | 0.06 | 0.008 | 0.04 | 0.181 |
| Observations | 1944 | 1944 | 1944 | 1944 | ||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.045 | 0.107 / 0.103 | 0.396 / 0.393 | 0.056 / 0.052 | ||||
Basic Model Comparison 2023 to 2025
Vaccination Behavior (2023 & 2025)
m2023 <- glm(vaxBeh ~
(bias.mean.26.z * bias.sd.26.z) +
(bias.mean.26.z + bias.sd.26.z) * ideology.z +
nfc.z + white_.5 + man_.5, family = binomial, data = dm)
m2025 <- glm(fluVaxx ~
(bias.mean.40.z * bias.sd.40.z) +
(bias.mean.40.z + bias.sd.40.z) * ideology.z +
nfc.z + age.z + white_.5 + sesLadder.z + man_.5, family = binomial, data = d)
tab_model(m2023, m2025,
string.est = "OR",
title = "Outcome: Flu vaccination",
dv.labels = c("2022-23", "2025"),
show.stat = F,
string.stat = "t",
show.se = F,
digits = 2)| 2022-23 | 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | OR | CI | p | OR | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.67 | 0.53 – 0.86 | 0.001 | 0.63 | 0.55 – 0.71 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | 0.92 | 0.74 – 1.14 | 0.445 | |||
| bias sd 26 z | 1.25 | 1.03 – 1.52 | 0.028 | |||
| ideology z | 0.68 | 0.54 – 0.84 | 0.001 | 0.78 | 0.69 – 0.88 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | 0.86 | 0.70 – 1.07 | 0.180 | 0.99 | 0.90 – 1.10 | 0.873 |
| white 5 | 1.20 | 0.77 – 1.89 | 0.428 | 1.20 | 0.95 – 1.51 | 0.120 |
| man 5 | 0.78 | 0.51 – 1.17 | 0.232 | 1.00 | 0.83 – 1.22 | 0.976 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
0.99 | 0.79 – 1.24 | 0.927 | |||
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
0.82 | 0.66 – 1.01 | 0.073 | |||
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 1.08 | 0.89 – 1.33 | 0.429 | |||
| bias mean 40 z | 0.69 | 0.60 – 0.79 | <0.001 | |||
| bias sd 40 z | 1.15 | 1.04 – 1.28 | 0.007 | |||
| age z | 1.19 | 1.08 – 1.32 | 0.001 | |||
| sesLadder z | 1.84 | 1.65 – 2.05 | <0.001 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
1.14 | 1.03 – 1.28 | 0.015 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
1.01 | 0.92 – 1.11 | 0.787 | |||
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 1.12 | 1.01 – 1.24 | 0.029 | |||
| Observations | 461 | 1933 | ||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.060 | 0.117 | ||||
Vaccination Intention (2023 & 2025)
| 2022-23 | 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Est | CI | p | Est | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 1.28 | 1.08 – 1.48 | <0.001 | 0.20 | 0.07 – 0.32 | 0.002 |
| bias mean 26 z | -0.13 | -0.31 – 0.05 | 0.144 | |||
| bias sd 26 z | 0.13 | -0.04 – 0.30 | 0.127 | |||
| ideology z | -0.49 | -0.67 – -0.31 | <0.001 | -0.52 | -0.64 – -0.39 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | 0.01 | -0.17 – 0.20 | 0.874 | 0.10 | -0.01 – 0.20 | 0.066 |
| white 5 | 0.09 | -0.28 – 0.46 | 0.639 | 0.02 | -0.21 – 0.26 | 0.843 |
| man 5 | -0.14 | -0.48 – 0.21 | 0.440 | -0.05 | -0.25 – 0.15 | 0.631 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
-0.08 | -0.27 – 0.10 | 0.381 | |||
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
-0.29 | -0.45 – -0.14 | <0.001 | |||
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 0.07 | -0.10 – 0.23 | 0.438 | |||
| bias mean 40 z | -0.50 | -0.63 – -0.36 | <0.001 | |||
| bias sd 40 z | 0.15 | 0.04 – 0.25 | 0.007 | |||
| sesLadder z | 0.55 | 0.44 – 0.65 | <0.001 | |||
| age z | 0.23 | 0.13 – 0.33 | <0.001 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
0.18 | 0.07 – 0.29 | 0.001 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
0.01 | -0.08 – 0.10 | 0.817 | |||
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 0.11 | 0.00 – 0.22 | 0.043 | |||
| Observations | 482 | 1933 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.122 / 0.106 | 0.163 / 0.158 | ||||
Trust in Science (2023 & 2025)
| 2022-23 | 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Est | CI | p | Est | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 2.36 | 2.28 – 2.45 | <0.001 | 1.01 | 0.95 – 1.06 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | -0.08 | -0.16 – -0.01 | 0.031 | |||
| bias sd 26 z | -0.02 | -0.09 – 0.05 | 0.517 | |||
| ideology z | -0.28 | -0.35 – -0.20 | <0.001 | -0.55 | -0.60 – -0.49 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | 0.24 | 0.16 – 0.31 | <0.001 | 0.13 | 0.09 – 0.18 | <0.001 |
| white 5 | 0.23 | 0.07 – 0.38 | 0.005 | 0.06 | -0.04 – 0.16 | 0.232 |
| man 5 | 0.02 | -0.13 – 0.17 | 0.792 | 0.11 | 0.03 – 0.20 | 0.009 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
0.01 | -0.07 – 0.09 | 0.854 | |||
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
-0.00 | -0.07 – 0.06 | 0.919 | |||
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | -0.01 | -0.08 – 0.06 | 0.876 | |||
| bias mean 40 z | -0.28 | -0.34 – -0.22 | <0.001 | |||
| bias sd 40 z | -0.08 | -0.12 – -0.03 | 0.001 | |||
| sesLadder z | -0.00 | -0.04 – 0.04 | 0.955 | |||
| age z | 0.08 | 0.03 – 0.12 | <0.001 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
0.08 | 0.03 – 0.12 | 0.001 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
0.01 | -0.03 – 0.04 | 0.784 | |||
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 0.07 | 0.02 – 0.11 | 0.004 | |||
| Observations | 482 | 1933 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.230 / 0.215 | 0.399 / 0.396 | ||||
Vaccine hesitancy (2025)
| 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Est | CI | t | p |
| (Intercept) | -0.62 | -0.67 – -0.56 | -23.07 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 40 z | 0.24 | 0.19 – 0.30 | 8.44 | <0.001 |
| bias sd 40 z | 0.08 | 0.04 – 0.13 | 3.63 | <0.001 |
| ideology z | 0.44 | 0.39 – 0.49 | 16.55 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | -0.03 | -0.07 – 0.02 | -1.25 | 0.212 |
| age z | -0.19 | -0.23 – -0.15 | -8.67 | <0.001 |
| white 5 | 0.02 | -0.07 – 0.12 | 0.45 | 0.652 |
| sesLadder z | -0.05 | -0.09 – -0.01 | -2.20 | 0.028 |
| man 5 | -0.10 | -0.18 – -0.01 | -2.28 | 0.022 |
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
-0.08 | -0.12 – -0.03 | -3.43 | 0.001 |
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
-0.04 | -0.07 – 0.00 | -1.94 | 0.053 |
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | -0.07 | -0.11 – -0.02 | -2.93 | 0.003 |
| Observations | 1932 | |||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.312 / 0.308 | |||
Risk of flu (2023 & 2025)
| 2022-23 | 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Est | CI | p | Est | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 4.43 | 4.31 – 4.54 | <0.001 | -0.82 | -0.90 – -0.75 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | -0.11 | -0.21 – -0.01 | 0.028 | |||
| bias sd 26 z | 0.07 | -0.02 – 0.17 | 0.127 | |||
| ideology z | -0.12 | -0.23 – -0.02 | 0.018 | 0.05 | -0.02 – 0.13 | 0.178 |
| nfc z | 0.08 | -0.02 – 0.18 | 0.136 | -0.13 | -0.19 – -0.06 | <0.001 |
| white 5 | -0.19 | -0.40 – 0.02 | 0.078 | 0.11 | -0.03 – 0.25 | 0.135 |
| man 5 | -0.38 | -0.57 – -0.18 | <0.001 | -0.15 | -0.27 – -0.03 | 0.015 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
-0.05 | -0.16 – 0.05 | 0.316 | |||
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
-0.05 | -0.14 – 0.04 | 0.263 | |||
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 0.06 | -0.03 – 0.16 | 0.175 | |||
| bias mean 40 z | -0.12 | -0.20 – -0.04 | 0.004 | |||
| bias sd 40 z | 0.21 | 0.14 – 0.27 | <0.001 | |||
| sesLadder z | 0.18 | 0.11 – 0.24 | <0.001 | |||
| age z | -0.02 | -0.08 – 0.05 | 0.601 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
0.05 | -0.02 – 0.11 | 0.177 | |||
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
-0.14 | -0.19 – -0.08 | <0.001 | |||
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 0.05 | -0.01 – 0.11 | 0.127 | |||
| Observations | 481 | 1933 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.095 / 0.078 | 0.071 / 0.066 | ||||
Risk of Vaccine (2023)
| 2022-23 ONLY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Est | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 2.87 | 2.75 – 3.00 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | 0.12 | 0.01 – 0.23 | 0.034 |
| bias sd 26 z | 0.10 | -0.00 – 0.21 | 0.053 |
| ideology z | 0.26 | 0.15 – 0.37 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | -0.06 | -0.17 – 0.06 | 0.324 |
| white 5 | -0.29 | -0.52 – -0.06 | 0.016 |
| man 5 | -0.26 | -0.47 – -0.04 | 0.021 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
-0.09 | -0.21 – 0.03 | 0.128 |
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
0.01 | -0.09 – 0.11 | 0.856 |
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 0.10 | -0.00 – 0.20 | 0.061 |
| Observations | 482 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.113 / 0.096 | ||
Attitudes toward vaccination (2023)
| 2022-23 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Est | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | 5.70 | 5.57 – 5.84 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | -0.11 | -0.23 – 0.01 | 0.073 |
| bias sd 26 z | -0.00 | -0.11 – 0.11 | 0.982 |
| ideology z | -0.34 | -0.46 – -0.22 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | 0.14 | 0.02 – 0.26 | 0.025 |
| white 5 | 0.04 | -0.21 – 0.29 | 0.757 |
| man 5 | -0.02 | -0.25 – 0.22 | 0.876 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
-0.07 | -0.20 – 0.05 | 0.255 |
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
-0.03 | -0.13 – 0.08 | 0.617 |
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 0.01 | -0.10 – 0.13 | 0.805 |
| Observations | 482 | ||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.117 / 0.100 | ||
Norms
2023 survey
injunctNorm is an average of three items that ask respondents “how much do people in your network agree/disagree that vaccination is..” 1) necessary, 2) a good idea, and 3) beneficial on a 7-point Likert scale (1 = Strongly disagree, 4 = Neither agree nor disagree, 7 = Strongly agree)
subjNorms (or norms_subj) is a single item that asks “How much do you agree or disagree with the following statement: People in my network with whom you talk about news and current events think I should get the flu vaccine in the next 12 months.” (1 = Strongly disagree, 4 = Neither agree nor disagree, 7 = Strongly agree)
descriptNorms is a single item asking “of people in your network, what proportion will get the flu vaccine in the next 12 months? [sliding scale 1-100] percent.”
To calculate average norms I took the average of these three standardized variables.
2025 survey
vaxxDescript is the average of two items assessing descriptive norms “How common do you think it is for people like you (e.g., your age group, social circle) to get the flu vaccine each year?” (-3 = Extremely uncommon, +3 = Extremely common) and “How many of your close friends and family members typically get the flu vaccine each year?” (1 = None at all, 7 = All)
vaxxInjunct is the average of two items assessing injunctive norms with “How much do you think people around you (e.g., friends, family, colleagues) expect you to get the flu vaccine each year?” (1 = Not at all expected, 7 = Extremely expected) and “How much do you think people you respect would approve or disapprove of you getting the flu vaccine each year?” on a 7-point Likert scale (-3 = Strongly disapprove, +3 = Strongly approve).
To calculate average norms I took the average of these two standardized variables.
Descriptive Norms Mediation
| 2023 Diversity –> Vax | 2023 Diversity –> Norms | 2023: Diversity + Norms –> Vaxx | 2025 Diversity –> Vax | 2025 Diversity –> Norms | 2025: Diversity + Norms –> Vaxx | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Odds Ratios | p | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Odds Ratios | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.67 | 0.001 | -0.04 | 0.410 | 0.67 | 0.002 | 0.63 | <0.001 | -0.03 | 0.268 | 0.54 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | 0.92 | 0.445 | -0.04 | 0.398 | 0.94 | 0.561 | ||||||
| bias sd 26 z | 1.25 | 0.028 | 0.06 | 0.166 | 1.22 | 0.056 | ||||||
| ideology z | 0.68 | 0.001 | -0.20 | <0.001 | 0.78 | 0.031 | 0.78 | <0.001 | -0.11 | <0.001 | 0.84 | 0.016 |
| nfc z | 0.86 | 0.180 | 0.03 | 0.521 | 0.84 | 0.123 | 0.99 | 0.873 | 0.06 | 0.003 | 0.88 | 0.032 |
| white 5 | 1.20 | 0.428 | 0.32 | 0.001 | 1.00 | 0.993 | 1.20 | 0.120 | 0.09 | 0.070 | 1.12 | 0.395 |
| man 5 | 0.78 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 0.906 | 0.78 | 0.269 | 1.00 | 0.976 | -0.09 | 0.034 | 1.12 | 0.315 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
0.99 | 0.927 | -0.12 | 0.013 | 1.07 | 0.605 | ||||||
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
0.82 | 0.073 | -0.01 | 0.841 | 0.83 | 0.085 | ||||||
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 1.08 | 0.429 | 0.08 | 0.062 | 1.03 | 0.749 | ||||||
| vaxxDescript z | 1.95 | <0.001 | 3.87 | <0.001 | ||||||||
| bias mean 40 z | 0.69 | <0.001 | -0.16 | <0.001 | 0.78 | 0.002 | ||||||
| bias sd 40 z | 1.15 | 0.007 | 0.07 | 0.001 | 1.09 | 0.168 | ||||||
| age z | 1.19 | 0.001 | 0.21 | <0.001 | 0.94 | 0.264 | ||||||
| sesLadder z | 1.84 | <0.001 | 0.25 | <0.001 | 1.56 | <0.001 | ||||||
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
1.14 | 0.015 | 0.03 | 0.135 | 1.14 | 0.042 | ||||||
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
1.01 | 0.787 | 0.01 | 0.627 | 1.01 | 0.900 | ||||||
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 1.12 | 0.029 | 0.07 | 0.003 | 1.07 | 0.276 | ||||||
| Observations | 461 | 482 | 461 | 1933 | 1933 | 1933 | ||||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.060 | 0.095 / 0.077 | 0.124 | 0.117 | 0.166 / 0.161 | 0.318 | ||||||
Injunctive Norms Mediation
| 2023 Diversity –> Vax | 2023 Diversity –> Norms | 2023: Diversity + Norms –> Vaxx | 2025 Diversity –> Vax | 2025 Diversity –> Norms | 2025: Diversity + Norms –> Vaxx | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Odds Ratios | p | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Odds Ratios | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.67 | 0.001 | 0.06 | 0.239 | 0.63 | <0.001 | 0.63 | <0.001 | -0.00 | 0.944 | 0.53 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | 0.92 | 0.445 | -0.09 | 0.041 | 0.97 | 0.763 | ||||||
| bias sd 26 z | 1.25 | 0.028 | 0.06 | 0.131 | 1.22 | 0.053 | ||||||
| ideology z | 0.68 | 0.001 | -0.27 | <0.001 | 0.78 | 0.032 | 0.78 | <0.001 | -0.20 | <0.001 | 0.97 | 0.728 |
| nfc z | 0.86 | 0.180 | 0.09 | 0.059 | 0.82 | 0.071 | 0.99 | 0.873 | 0.06 | 0.003 | 0.87 | 0.026 |
| white 5 | 1.20 | 0.428 | 0.05 | 0.616 | 1.20 | 0.441 | 1.20 | 0.120 | 0.03 | 0.504 | 1.23 | 0.122 |
| man 5 | 0.78 | 0.232 | 0.12 | 0.181 | 0.73 | 0.141 | 1.00 | 0.976 | 0.01 | 0.882 | 0.98 | 0.873 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
0.99 | 0.927 | -0.06 | 0.207 | 1.02 | 0.866 | ||||||
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
0.82 | 0.073 | -0.07 | 0.073 | 0.86 | 0.159 | ||||||
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 1.08 | 0.429 | -0.03 | 0.454 | 1.10 | 0.360 | ||||||
| vaxxInjunct z | 1.75 | <0.001 | 4.48 | <0.001 | ||||||||
| bias mean 40 z | 0.69 | <0.001 | -0.17 | <0.001 | 0.80 | 0.006 | ||||||
| bias sd 40 z | 1.15 | 0.007 | 0.11 | <0.001 | 1.02 | 0.811 | ||||||
| age z | 1.19 | 0.001 | 0.13 | <0.001 | 1.02 | 0.702 | ||||||
| sesLadder z | 1.84 | <0.001 | 0.25 | <0.001 | 1.52 | <0.001 | ||||||
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
1.14 | 0.015 | 0.05 | 0.033 | 1.10 | 0.175 | ||||||
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
1.01 | 0.787 | -0.01 | 0.629 | 1.05 | 0.387 | ||||||
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 1.12 | 0.029 | 0.05 | 0.021 | 1.07 | 0.257 | ||||||
| Observations | 461 | 482 | 461 | 1933 | 1933 | 1933 | ||||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.060 | 0.135 / 0.119 | 0.104 | 0.117 | 0.169 / 0.164 | 0.366 | ||||||
Subjective Norms Mediation
| 2023 Diversity –> Vax | 2023 Diversity –> Norms | 2023: Diversity + Norms –> Vaxx | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Odds Ratios | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.67 | 0.001 | -0.01 | 0.839 | 0.66 | 0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | 0.92 | 0.445 | -0.08 | 0.084 | 0.95 | 0.675 |
| bias sd 26 z | 1.25 | 0.028 | 0.06 | 0.165 | 1.23 | 0.046 |
| ideology z | 0.68 | 0.001 | -0.25 | <0.001 | 0.77 | 0.029 |
| nfc z | 0.86 | 0.180 | 0.01 | 0.792 | 0.85 | 0.132 |
| white 5 | 1.20 | 0.428 | 0.08 | 0.422 | 1.16 | 0.527 |
| man 5 | 0.78 | 0.232 | -0.02 | 0.850 | 0.78 | 0.258 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
0.99 | 0.927 | 0.00 | 0.946 | 0.98 | 0.864 |
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
0.82 | 0.073 | -0.02 | 0.671 | 0.83 | 0.096 |
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 1.08 | 0.429 | -0.05 | 0.253 | 1.12 | 0.274 |
| vaxSubj z | 1.75 | <0.001 | ||||
| Observations | 461 | 482 | 461 | |||
| R2 Tjur | 0.060 | 0.104 / 0.087 | 0.105 | |||
Average Norms Mediation
| 2023 Diversity –> Vax | 2023 Diversity –> Norms | 2023: Diversity + Norms –> Vaxx | 2025 Diversity –> Vax | 2025 Diversity –> Norms | 2025: Diversity + Norms –> Vaxx | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Odds Ratios | p | Odds Ratios | p | Estimates | p | Odds Ratios | p |
| (Intercept) | 0.67 | 0.001 | 0.00 | 0.962 | 0.65 | 0.001 | 0.63 | <0.001 | -0.02 | 0.519 | 0.52 | <0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | 0.92 | 0.445 | -0.07 | 0.072 | 0.96 | 0.750 | ||||||
| bias sd 26 z | 1.25 | 0.028 | 0.06 | 0.095 | 1.22 | 0.064 | ||||||
| ideology z | 0.68 | 0.001 | -0.24 | <0.001 | 0.82 | 0.097 | 0.78 | <0.001 | -0.16 | <0.001 | 0.93 | 0.366 |
| nfc z | 0.86 | 0.180 | 0.04 | 0.280 | 0.82 | 0.080 | 0.99 | 0.873 | 0.06 | 0.001 | 0.85 | 0.011 |
| white 5 | 1.20 | 0.428 | 0.15 | 0.077 | 1.07 | 0.765 | 1.20 | 0.120 | 0.06 | 0.174 | 1.15 | 0.322 |
| man 5 | 0.78 | 0.232 | 0.04 | 0.628 | 0.76 | 0.221 | 1.00 | 0.976 | -0.04 | 0.279 | 1.07 | 0.571 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
0.99 | 0.927 | -0.06 | 0.151 | 1.03 | 0.801 | ||||||
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
0.82 | 0.073 | -0.03 | 0.350 | 0.84 | 0.124 | ||||||
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | 1.08 | 0.429 | -0.00 | 0.997 | 1.09 | 0.426 | ||||||
| normsAvg z | 2.35 | <0.001 | 6.07 | <0.001 | ||||||||
| bias mean 40 z | 0.69 | <0.001 | -0.16 | <0.001 | 0.81 | 0.013 | ||||||
| bias sd 40 z | 1.15 | 0.007 | 0.09 | <0.001 | 1.02 | 0.717 | ||||||
| age z | 1.19 | 0.001 | 0.17 | <0.001 | 0.93 | 0.227 | ||||||
| sesLadder z | 1.84 | <0.001 | 0.25 | <0.001 | 1.46 | <0.001 | ||||||
|
bias mean 40 z × bias sd 40 z |
1.14 | 0.015 | 0.04 | 0.047 | 1.12 | 0.107 | ||||||
|
bias mean 40 z × ideology z |
1.01 | 0.787 | 0.00 | 0.999 | 1.03 | 0.625 | ||||||
| bias sd 40 z × ideology z | 1.12 | 0.029 | 0.06 | 0.004 | 1.06 | 0.365 | ||||||
| Observations | 461 | 482 | 461 | 1933 | 1933 | 1933 | ||||||
| R2 Tjur | 0.060 | 0.133 / 0.117 | 0.131 | 0.117 | 0.189 / 0.184 | 0.387 | ||||||
2023 bootstrapping mediation
| normsAvg.z | vaxBeh | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Odds Ratios | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | -0.01 | -0.10 – 0.09 | 0.908 | 0.65 | 0.50 – 0.83 | 0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | -0.07 | -0.15 – 0.01 | 0.073 | 0.96 | 0.77 – 1.21 | 0.750 |
| bias sd 26 z | 0.06 | -0.02 – 0.13 | 0.130 | 1.22 | 0.99 – 1.50 | 0.064 |
| ideology z | -0.26 | -0.34 – -0.18 | <0.001 | 0.82 | 0.64 – 1.04 | 0.097 |
| nfc z | 0.04 | -0.05 – 0.12 | 0.390 | 0.82 | 0.65 – 1.02 | 0.080 |
| white 5 | 0.13 | -0.04 – 0.30 | 0.144 | 1.07 | 0.67 – 1.73 | 0.765 |
| man 5 | 0.03 | -0.13 – 0.18 | 0.753 | 0.76 | 0.49 – 1.17 | 0.221 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
-0.06 | -0.14 – 0.02 | 0.165 | 1.03 | 0.81 – 1.31 | 0.801 |
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
-0.04 | -0.11 – 0.03 | 0.274 | 0.84 | 0.67 – 1.04 | 0.124 |
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | -0.01 | -0.08 – 0.07 | 0.862 | 1.09 | 0.88 – 1.34 | 0.426 |
| normsAvg z | 2.35 | 1.76 – 3.19 | <0.001 | |||
| Observations | 461 | 461 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.143 / 0.126 | 0.131 | ||||
## Running nonparametric bootstrap##
## Causal Mediation Analysis
##
## Nonparametric Bootstrap Confidence Intervals with the Percentile Method
##
## Estimate 95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper p-value
## ACME (control) 0.0111790 -0.0025861 0.0262571 0.1112
## ACME (treated) 0.0112618 -0.0029533 0.0264308 0.1168
## ADE (control) 0.0398309 -0.0053613 0.0857142 0.0772 .
## ADE (treated) 0.0399137 -0.0053622 0.0854964 0.0788 .
## Total Effect 0.0510927 0.0050835 0.0975957 0.0336 *
## Prop. Mediated (control) 0.2187991 -0.1490810 0.9957897 0.1304
## Prop. Mediated (treated) 0.2204193 -0.1563674 0.9859356 0.1360
## ACME (average) 0.0112204 -0.0027612 0.0264099 0.1160
## ADE (average) 0.0398723 -0.0052887 0.0855993 0.0784 .
## Prop. Mediated (average) 0.2196092 -0.1520967 0.9986882 0.1352
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Sample Size Used: 461
##
##
## Simulations: 50002025 bootstrapping mediation
## Running nonparametric bootstrap##
## Causal Mediation Analysis
##
## Nonparametric Bootstrap Confidence Intervals with the Percentile Method
##
## Estimate 95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper p-value
## ACME (control) 0.0241976 0.0126246 0.0367504 <2e-16 ***
## ACME (treated) 0.0249373 0.0132284 0.0375165 <2e-16 ***
## ADE (control) 0.0022493 -0.0169170 0.0229721 0.8256
## ADE (treated) 0.0029891 -0.0166903 0.0240635 0.7732
## Total Effect 0.0271867 0.0041200 0.0512063 0.0220 *
## Prop. Mediated (control) 0.8900541 0.4263057 3.2113112 0.0220 *
## Prop. Mediated (treated) 0.9172635 0.4500421 3.2483448 0.0220 *
## ACME (average) 0.0245675 0.0129491 0.0371538 <2e-16 ***
## ADE (average) 0.0026192 -0.0167522 0.0234537 0.7972
## Prop. Mediated (average) 0.9036588 0.4370880 3.2243903 0.0220 *
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Sample Size Used: 1933
##
##
## Simulations: 50002023 Avg Norms controlling for analytical thinking
## Warning: In lm.fit(x, y, offset = offset, singular.ok = singular.ok, ...) :
## extra argument 'family' will be disregarded| 2023 Diversity –> Norms | ||
|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | p |
| (Intercept) | -0.00 | 0.948 |
| bias mean 26 z | -0.07 | 0.072 |
| bias sd 26 z | 0.08 | 0.045 |
| ideology z | -0.23 | <0.001 |
| nfc z | 0.03 | 0.537 |
| cogReflect z | 0.03 | 0.409 |
| numeracy z | 0.07 | 0.130 |
| raven z | 0.01 | 0.840 |
| white 5 | 0.14 | 0.097 |
| man 5 | -0.02 | 0.843 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
-0.06 | 0.137 |
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
-0.03 | 0.324 |
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | -0.00 | 0.929 |
| Observations | 482 | |
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.141 / 0.119 | |
2023 bootstrapping mediation + analytical controls
| normsAvg.z | vaxBeh | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predictors | Estimates | CI | p | Odds Ratios | CI | p |
| (Intercept) | -0.01 | -0.10 – 0.08 | 0.810 | 0.64 | 0.50 – 0.83 | 0.001 |
| bias mean 26 z | -0.07 | -0.15 – 0.01 | 0.077 | 0.95 | 0.76 – 1.19 | 0.652 |
| bias sd 26 z | 0.07 | -0.01 – 0.15 | 0.068 | 1.19 | 0.97 – 1.48 | 0.099 |
| ideology z | -0.25 | -0.33 – -0.16 | <0.001 | 0.82 | 0.64 – 1.04 | 0.105 |
| nfc z | 0.02 | -0.06 – 0.10 | 0.658 | 0.84 | 0.66 – 1.05 | 0.124 |
| cogReflect z | 0.04 | -0.04 – 0.12 | 0.329 | 0.90 | 0.72 – 1.13 | 0.354 |
| numeracy z | 0.05 | -0.03 – 0.14 | 0.227 | 1.08 | 0.85 – 1.38 | 0.535 |
| raven z | 0.01 | -0.07 – 0.09 | 0.849 | 0.84 | 0.67 – 1.05 | 0.128 |
| white 5 | 0.12 | -0.05 – 0.29 | 0.163 | 1.08 | 0.67 – 1.74 | 0.749 |
| man 5 | -0.03 | -0.19 – 0.14 | 0.761 | 0.76 | 0.48 – 1.19 | 0.232 |
|
bias mean 26 z × bias sd 26 z |
-0.06 | -0.14 – 0.02 | 0.154 | 1.02 | 0.80 – 1.29 | 0.895 |
|
bias mean 26 z × ideology z |
-0.04 | -0.11 – 0.03 | 0.249 | 0.84 | 0.67 – 1.05 | 0.128 |
| bias sd 26 z × ideology z | -0.01 | -0.08 – 0.06 | 0.800 | 1.10 | 0.89 – 1.35 | 0.392 |
| normsAvg z | 2.39 | 1.79 – 3.26 | <0.001 | |||
| Observations | 461 | 461 | ||||
| R2 / R2 adjusted | 0.150 / 0.127 | 0.138 | ||||
## Running nonparametric bootstrap##
## Causal Mediation Analysis
##
## Nonparametric Bootstrap Confidence Intervals with the Percentile Method
##
## Estimate 95% CI Lower 95% CI Upper p-value
## ACME (control) 0.01372166 -0.00055745 0.02915115 0.0596 .
## ACME (treated) 0.01384413 -0.00082961 0.02948306 0.0624 .
## ADE (control) 0.03544550 -0.00962615 0.08086292 0.1304
## ADE (treated) 0.03556798 -0.00960714 0.08060626 0.1312
## Total Effect 0.04928963 0.00219382 0.09534515 0.0440 *
## Prop. Mediated (control) 0.27838832 -0.16338169 1.36651641 0.0940 .
## Prop. Mediated (treated) 0.28087314 -0.16032740 1.36934900 0.0960 .
## ACME (average) 0.01378290 -0.00067861 0.02929166 0.0612 .
## ADE (average) 0.03550674 -0.00963494 0.08079616 0.1308
## Prop. Mediated (average) 0.27963073 -0.16417191 1.36522255 0.0956 .
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Sample Size Used: 461
##
##
## Simulations: 5000