How Has Going Out Changed? Essential vs Leisure

Harini Machavaram
Student Number: S4148455

Objective

  • Examine whether two out-of-home activities—essential mobility (commuting by public transport) and discretionary leisure (cinema-going)—have returned to their pre-COVID levels in Australia, and how their patterns/mix have shifted.

Dataset Source

  • Public transport: ABS Journey to Work (Census day) 2011, 2016, 2021 — mode counts for Train, Bus, Tram, Taxi, Ferry (Australia-wide).

  • Cinema: Screen Australia Attendance patterns 1974–2024 — % attending at least once and average visits per person (national).

  • Analysis window. Focus on PT 2011/2016/2021 comparisons; cinema 2015–2024 with a 2019 baseline check for recovery.

Public Transport: Levels & Composition

PT: 2021 vs 2016 (% change) — Australia-wide

Observations and reasoning

  • Levels (2011 → 2016 → 2021): Big drop by 2021 vs 2016 across modes; Train falls the most.
  • Composition (shares): The mode mix changes in 2021—surface modes (e.g., Bus) hold proportion better than Train.
  • % change (2016 → 2021): All negative; steepest decline in Train (core 9–5 commuting).

Conclusion

  • Public transport did not rebound to its pre-COVID pattern by 2021.
  • Both the size of commuting and its shape(by mode) shifted, with the largest impact on Train usage.

Plausible Reasons

  • Hybrid / remote work reduced the need for peak-hour CBD trips—hurting Train most.
  • Mode substitution: more car, walking/cycling, or local trips replaced long, rail-centric commutes.
  • CBD activity lag: slower return of office occupancy and events suppressed rail demand.

Notes & limits: PT data are a Census-day snapshot during an unusual year; results show patterns, not definitive causation. State lockdowns and local service changes may have varied, affecting modes unevenly.

Cinema: 2015–2024

Cinema: Are We Back Yet?

Observation and Conclusion

  • Sharp fall in 2020–2021, with 2021 as the lowest point in both attendance and visits.
  • Gradual recovery post-2021, but 2023–2024 levels still remain below 2019.
  • Visits per person(behaviour intensity) is the focus — used consistently in both charts.

Conclusion
- Cinema-going has not fully rebounded to pre-COVID levels by 2024.
- The recovery is partial, and flattening — suggesting that cinema is no longer a default leisure activity for many.

Plausible Drivers

  • Streaming services boom: Rise of Netflix, Disney+, etc., offering convenient alternatives.
  • Cost of living pressures: Cinema is a discretionary expense; families and students may cut back.
  • Habit change: Multi-year disruption shifted leisure patterns and some have not returned.
  • Content & experience: Fewer “must-see” blockbusters or event movies; some cinemas closed or scaled back.

Final Takeaway — Essential vs Leisure Behaviour

🚌 Public Transport (Essential) - Did not bounce back to pre-COVID levels by 2021. - Train usage dropped the most — likely due to remote work and reduced city commuting. - Even the mode mix shifted: surface modes like bus held up better than rail.

🎬 Cinema (Leisure) - National cinema activity collapsed in 2020–21. - Some recovery by 2022–2024, but still below 2019 for both visits and participation. - Reflects changes in consumer habits: streaming, cost of living, fewer blockbusters.

What it tells us

  • Essential behaviours (like commuting) are shaped by structural changes (e.g., hybrid work).
  • Leisure behaviours depend more on personal choices and perceptions of value, habit, and enjoyment.

📌COVID didn’t just pause activity — it reshaped it differently for different parts of daily life.

References