George Pipis
Data Scientist
Many runners would like to predict their time in an upcoming race. However it is very likely that they have not run any recent race at that particular distance and they would like to predict their time based on another race. There exists many available formulas. Below we represent some well known:
Some of the formulas apply only on a specific distance. For example the Yasso formula is used to predict the Marathon Race Time based on 10 x 800m. Higdon's formula is again to predict the Marathon Race Time based on a 10k race.
For this project we chose to talk about the formula divised by Pete Riegel
The formula was originally devised by Pete Riegel, a research engineer and marathoner, and published in Runner's World many moons ago by Owen Anderson in 1997. It has stood the test of time since then and has been widely used.
The formula is T2 = T1 x (D2/D1)1.06 where T1 is the given time, D1 is the given distance, D2 is the distance to predict a time for, and T2 is the calculated time for D2.
This calculator lets you input an actual race time to see what you should be capable of at another distance. It is adjusted for distance (ie its 10K prediction isn't just double your 5K time), but there are three caveats: It assumes you've done appropriate training for the distance. It assumes you don't have a natural significant bias towards either speed or endurance. The calculations become less accurate for times under three and a half minutes and over four hours. Below An Example of the formula assuming a runner who has run 10k in 60 minutes and we would like to predict his time in a 20k race.
D1<-10
T1<-60
D2<-20
T2<-T1*(D2/D1)*1.06
T2
## [1] 127.2
You can see the application on the following link