David: once you have completed the methods and findings sections could you send it back to me, along with some recommendations of the main lines of argument that you want to push forward for our research contribution section (analysis and conclusions).
Could you note how our findings correspond to the nomination findings in the Starmer 2020 paper; and in our British Politics clusters paper (again for the 2019-24 PLP)?
| Model | Pseudo R² | AIC | Pseudo R² | AIC | Pseudo R² | AIC | Pseudo R² | AIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| all | 0.477 | 465.334 | 0.514 | 398.075 | 0.702 | 157.215 | 0.385 | 389.002 |
| all_step | 0.429 | 421.216 | 0.472 | 362.090 | 0.817 | 82.057 | 0.336 | 357.366 |
| personal | 0.266 | 488.811 | 0.185 | 457.238 | 0.561 | 119.991 | 0.161 | 394.612 |
| constituency | 0.033 | 543.289 | 0.009 | 486.210 | 0.036 | 182.197 | 0.065 | 397.046 |
| group | 0.298 | 478.753 | 0.277 | 428.469 | 0.699 | 95.771 | 0.209 | 382.783 |
| union | 0.107 | 533.779 | 0.033 | 493.373 | 0.469 | 126.437 | 0.019 | 423.277 |
| voting | 0.218 | 490.185 | 0.226 | 427.833 | 0.503 | 114.334 | 0.074 | 402.542 |
| Characteristic |
Overall N = 399 |
Bridget Phillipson N = 175 |
Lucy Powell N = 117 |
Bell Ribeiro-Addy N = 24 |
None N = 83 |
p-value1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gender |
|
|
|
|
|
0.004 |
| F | 185 (46%) | 66 (38%) | 68 (58%) | 9 (38%) | 42 (51%) |
|
| M | 214 (54%) | 109 (62%) | 49 (42%) | 15 (63%) | 41 (49%) |
|
| ethnic_mp |
|
|
|
|
|
0.3 |
| 0 | 335 (84%) | 149 (85%) | 101 (86%) | 17 (71%) | 68 (82%) |
|
| 1 | 64 (16%) | 26 (15%) | 16 (14%) | 7 (29%) | 15 (18%) |
|
| lgbt | 56 (14%) | 32 (18%) | 10 (8.5%) | 4 (17%) | 10 (12%) | 0.10 |
| mp_final_relig |
|
|
|
|
|
0.5 |
| None | 173 (43%) | 72 (41%) | 53 (45%) | 11 (46%) | 37 (45%) |
|
| Catholic | 24 (6.0%) | 11 (6.3%) | 8 (6.8%) | 2 (8.3%) | 3 (3.6%) |
|
| Christian | 159 (40%) | 74 (42%) | 46 (39%) | 7 (29%) | 32 (39%) |
|
| Hindu | 2 (0.5%) | 1 (0.6%) | 1 (0.9%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
|
| Jewish | 12 (3.0%) | 8 (4.6%) | 2 (1.7%) | 0 (0%) | 2 (2.4%) |
|
| Muslim | 17 (4.3%) | 3 (1.7%) | 5 (4.3%) | 3 (13%) | 6 (7.2%) |
|
| Sikh | 12 (3.0%) | 6 (3.4%) | 2 (1.7%) | 1 (4.2%) | 3 (3.6%) |
|
| lr_score | 39.7 (18.8, 57.5) | 40.4 (29.1, 54.9) | 39.8 (31.0, 57.0) | 31.1 (18.8, 41.2) | 40.7 (26.2, 57.5) | <0.001 |
| position_in_government |
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001 |
| Backbench | 279 (70%) | 102 (58%) | 104 (89%) | 24 (100%) | 49 (59%) |
|
| Government | 120 (30%) | 73 (42%) | 13 (11%) | 0 (0%) | 34 (41%) |
|
| first_elected_by_parliament |
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001 |
| Starmer | 242 (61%) | 134 (77%) | 75 (64%) | 4 (17%) | 29 (35%) |
|
| Corbyn | 55 (14%) | 18 (10%) | 13 (11%) | 9 (38%) | 15 (18%) |
|
| Miliband | 38 (9.5%) | 4 (2.3%) | 15 (13%) | 5 (21%) | 14 (17%) |
|
| 1992–2010 | 64 (16%) | 19 (11%) | 14 (12%) | 6 (25%) | 25 (30%) |
|
| 1 Fisher’s Exact Test for Count Data with simulated p-value (based on 2e+05 replicates); Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test | ||||||
| Characteristic |
Overall N = 399 |
Bridget Phillipson N = 175 |
Lucy Powell N = 117 |
Bell Ribeiro-Addy N = 24 |
None N = 83 |
p-value1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| constituency_type |
|
|
|
|
|
<0.001 |
| Borough | 209 (52%) | 82 (47%) | 54 (46%) | 14 (58%) | 59 (71%) |
|
| County | 190 (48%) | 93 (53%) | 63 (54%) | 10 (42%) | 24 (29%) |
|
| majority | 0.10 (0.00, 0.31) | 0.09 (0.00, 0.25) | 0.10 (0.00, 0.30) | 0.14 (0.05, 0.29) | 0.12 (0.01, 0.31) | 0.003 |
| 1 Fisher’s Exact Test for Count Data with simulated p-value (based on 2e+05 replicates); Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test | ||||||
| Characteristic |
Overall N = 399 |
Bridget Phillipson N = 175 |
Lucy Powell N = 117 |
Bell Ribeiro-Addy N = 24 |
None N = 83 |
p-value1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co_operative_party | 41 (10%) | 24 (14%) | 9 (7.7%) | 1 (4.2%) | 7 (8.4%) | 0.3 |
| blue_labour | 7 (1.8%) | 2 (1.1%) | 1 (0.9%) | 0 (0%) | 4 (4.8%) | 0.2 |
| socialist_campaign_group | 20 (5.0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 17 (71%) | 3 (3.6%) | <0.001 |
| tribune | 60 (15%) | 21 (12%) | 20 (17%) | 0 (0%) | 19 (23%) | 0.013 |
| mission_champions | 27 (6.8%) | 18 (10%) | 8 (6.8%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (1.2%) | 0.022 |
| labour_to_win_backed | 194 (49%) | 119 (68%) | 30 (26%) | 0 (0%) | 45 (54%) | <0.001 |
| labour_growth_group | 102 (26%) | 74 (42%) | 16 (14%) | 0 (0%) | 12 (14%) | <0.001 |
| labour_yimby | 18 (4.5%) | 7 (4.0%) | 3 (2.6%) | 0 (0%) | 8 (9.6%) | 0.11 |
| labour_housing | 8 (2.0%) | 6 (3.4%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 2 (2.4%) | 0.2 |
| labour_rural_research_group | 24 (6.0%) | 12 (6.9%) | 7 (6.0%) | 2 (8.3%) | 3 (3.6%) | 0.7 |
| sera | 92 (23%) | 51 (29%) | 24 (21%) | 2 (8.3%) | 15 (18%) | 0.046 |
| labour_movement_for_europe | 49 (12%) | 32 (18%) | 8 (6.8%) | 2 (8.3%) | 7 (8.4%) | 0.017 |
| get_britain_working_group | 35 (8.8%) | 24 (14%) | 6 (5.1%) | 0 (0%) | 5 (6.0%) | 0.022 |
| living_standards_coalition | 103 (26%) | 47 (27%) | 46 (39%) | 1 (4.2%) | 9 (11%) | <0.001 |
| parliamentary_black_caucus | 7 (1.8%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 3 (13%) | 4 (4.8%) | <0.001 |
| 1 Fisher’s Exact Test for Count Data with simulated p-value (based on 2e+05 replicates) | ||||||
| Characteristic |
Overall N = 399 |
Bridget Phillipson N = 175 |
Lucy Powell N = 117 |
Bell Ribeiro-Addy N = 24 |
None N = 83 |
p-value1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| community | 91 (23%) | 49 (28%) | 22 (19%) | 1 (4.2%) | 19 (23%) | 0.028 |
| gmb | 75 (19%) | 39 (22%) | 24 (21%) | 1 (4.2%) | 11 (13%) | 0.078 |
| unison | 59 (15%) | 36 (21%) | 10 (8.5%) | 1 (4.2%) | 12 (14%) | 0.015 |
| usdaw | 56 (14%) | 26 (15%) | 15 (13%) | 1 (4.2%) | 14 (17%) | 0.5 |
| unite | 97 (24%) | 28 (16%) | 32 (27%) | 18 (75%) | 19 (23%) | <0.001 |
| fbu | 34 (8.5%) | 5 (2.9%) | 9 (7.7%) | 15 (63%) | 5 (6.0%) | <0.001 |
| cwu | 41 (10%) | 18 (10%) | 10 (8.5%) | 6 (25%) | 7 (8.4%) | 0.13 |
| aslef | 5 (1.3%) | 2 (1.1%) | 2 (1.7%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (1.2%) |
0.9 |
| musicians_union | 14 (3.5%) | 4 (2.3%) | 5 (4.3%) | 1 (4.2%) | 4 (4.8%) | 0.6 |
| 1 Fisher’s Exact Test for Count Data with simulated p-value (based on 2e+05 replicates) | ||||||
| Characteristic |
Overall N = 399 |
Bridget Phillipson N = 175 |
Lucy Powell N = 117 |
Bell Ribeiro-Addy N = 24 |
None N = 83 |
p-value1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ass_suicide_3rd |
|
|
|
|
|
0.053 |
| Yes | 226 (57%) | 106 (61%) | 70 (60%) | 9 (38%) | 41 (49%) |
|
| No | 157 (39%) | 65 (37%) | 42 (36%) | 15 (63%) | 35 (42%) |
|
| Abstain | 16 (4.0%) | 4 (2.3%) | 5 (4.3%) | 0 (0%) | 7 (8.4%) |
|
| abortion_vote |
|
|
|
|
|
0.039 |
| Yes | 289 (72%) | 133 (76%) | 92 (79%) | 15 (63%) | 49 (59%) |
|
| No | 24 (6.0%) | 8 (4.6%) | 5 (4.3%) | 2 (8.3%) | 9 (11%) |
|
| Abstain | 86 (22%) | 34 (19%) | 20 (17%) | 7 (29%) | 25 (30%) |
|
| palestine_early_day_motion_may_2025 | 45 (11%) | 6 (3.4%) | 11 (9.4%) | 20 (83%) | 8 (9.6%) | <0.001 |
| welfare_rebels_first_amendment | 121 (30%) | 18 (10%) | 64 (55%) | 22 (92%) | 17 (20%) | <0.001 |
| 1 Fisher’s Exact Test for Count Data with simulated p-value (based on 2e+05 replicates) | ||||||
| reg_original_bp_all_step | reg_original_lp_all_step | reg_original_br_all_step | reg_original_none_all_step | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | -2.19 *** | -2.09 | 2.07 | -2.15 *** |
| (0.36) | (1.50) | (2.98) | (0.49) | |
| genderM | 0.64 * | -0.99 *** | 4.35 ** | |
| (0.25) | (0.29) | (1.60) | ||
| ethnic_mp1 | 2.11 | -1.55 * | ||
| (1.39) | (0.71) | |||
| lgbt | ||||
| mp_final_religCatholic | -1.34 | |||
| (0.72) | ||||
| mp_final_religChristian | -0.44 | |||
| (0.32) | ||||
| mp_final_religHindu | 1.08 | |||
| (2.07) | ||||
| mp_final_religJewish | -0.11 | |||
| (0.81) | ||||
| mp_final_religMuslim | 1.51 | |||
| (0.95) | ||||
| mp_final_religSikh | 2.40 * | |||
| (1.02) | ||||
| lr_score | 0.05 | -0.25 ** | ||
| (0.04) | (0.08) | |||
| position_in_governmentGovernment | -0.97 * | -3.89 | ||
| (0.39) | (2.57) | |||
| first_elected_by_parliamentCorbyn | -0.44 | -0.55 | 1.04 * | |
| (0.39) | (0.54) | (0.45) | ||
| first_elected_by_parliamentMiliband | -1.81 ** | 0.31 | 1.17 * | |
| (0.57) | (0.59) | (0.49) | ||
| first_elected_by_parliament1992–2010 | -0.91 ** | -0.98 | 1.69 *** | |
| (0.35) | (0.54) | (0.42) | ||
| constituency_typeCounty | 0.64 * | 0.92 | -0.51 | |
| (0.32) | (0.93) | (0.31) | ||
| majority | 3.71 | 9.91 | ||
| (2.66) | (5.99) | |||
| co_operative_party | 0.74 | -0.60 | ||
| (0.41) | (0.47) | |||
| blue_labour | -1.34 | -1.74 | 1.63 | |
| (1.19) | (2.06) | (0.91) | ||
| socialist_campaign_group | -1.25 | -3.59 * | -2.44 | |
| (1.51) | (1.56) | (1.44) | ||
| tribune | 1.06 * | -4.13 * | ||
| (0.47) | (2.02) | |||
| mission_champions | 0.79 | -1.21 | ||
| (0.55) | (0.87) | |||
| labour_to_win_backed | 0.86 ** | -1.28 *** | -8.69 * | |
| (0.27) | (0.32) | (3.40) | ||
| labour_growth_group | 0.94 ** | -0.64 | ||
| (0.31) | (0.38) | |||
| labour_yimby | -1.29 * | 2.01 ** | ||
| (0.62) | (0.62) | |||
| labour_housing | 1.29 | -1.56 | ||
| (1.00) | (1.81) | |||
| labour_rural_research_group | 0.80 | -1.30 * | -0.42 | |
| (0.52) | (0.57) | (1.11) | ||
| sera | ||||
| labour_movement_for_europe | 3.84 * | |||
| (1.51) | ||||
| get_britain_working_group | ||||
| living_standards_coalition | 0.96 ** | -1.89 | -0.73 | |
| (0.34) | (1.07) | (0.44) | ||
| parliamentary_black_caucus | 5.12 ** | |||
| (1.73) | ||||
| community | ||||
| gmb | ||||
| unison | 0.66 | |||
| (0.42) | ||||
| usdaw | 0.14 | |||
| (1.24) | ||||
| unite | 0.56 | |||
| (0.79) | ||||
| fbu | 4.97 ** | |||
| (1.65) | ||||
| cwu | ||||
| aslef | -7.78 * | |||
| (3.83) | ||||
| musicians_union | -0.91 | 1.90 | ||
| (0.69) | (1.52) | |||
| ass_suicide_3rdNo | ||||
| ass_suicide_3rdAbstain | ||||
| abortion_voteNo | 0.72 | 1.15 * | ||
| (1.37) | (0.55) | |||
| abortion_voteAbstain | 0.43 | 0.47 | ||
| (0.90) | (0.36) | |||
| palestine_early_day_motion_may_2025No | 0.94 | |||
| (0.54) | ||||
| welfare_rebels_first_amendmentNo | 1.64 *** | -1.79 *** | -1.15 | 0.76 * |
| (0.32) | (0.34) | (0.77) | (0.37) | |
| N | 399 | 399 | 399 | 399 |
| AIC | 421.22 | 362.09 | 82.06 | 357.37 |
| BIC | 477.06 | 441.87 | 165.83 | 449.11 |
| Pseudo R2 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.82 | 0.34 |
| *** p < 0.001; ** p < 0.01; * p < 0.05. | ||||
| fullname | variable | overall | estimate | p.value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bridget Phillipson | welfare_rebels_first_amendmentNo | 5.097 | 1.6415654 | 0.000 |
| Bridget Phillipson | labour_to_win_backed | 3.219 | 0.8554719 | 0.001 |
| Bridget Phillipson | first_elected_by_parliamentMiliband | 3.205 | -1.8138054 | 0.001 |
| Bridget Phillipson | labour_growth_group | 3.049 | 0.9407903 | 0.002 |
| Bridget Phillipson | first_elected_by_parliament1992–2010 | 2.587 | -0.9120321 | 0.010 |
| Lucy Powell | welfare_rebels_first_amendmentNo | 5.250 | -1.7853358 | 0.000 |
| Lucy Powell | labour_to_win_backed | 4.001 | -1.2751249 | 0.000 |
| Lucy Powell | genderM | 3.400 | -0.9894009 | 0.001 |
| Lucy Powell | living_standards_coalition | 2.811 | 0.9583399 | 0.005 |
| Lucy Powell | position_in_governmentGovernment | 2.525 | -0.9722982 | 0.012 |
| Bell Ribeiro-Addy | lr_score | 3.036 | -0.2470813 | 0.002 |
| Bell Ribeiro-Addy | fbu | 3.014 | 4.9728669 | 0.003 |
| Bell Ribeiro-Addy | genderM | 2.712 | 4.3473726 | 0.007 |
| Bell Ribeiro-Addy | labour_to_win_backed | 2.558 | -8.6931880 | 0.011 |
| Bell Ribeiro-Addy | labour_movement_for_europe | 2.546 | 3.8388726 | 0.011 |
| None | first_elected_by_parliament1992–2010 | 4.025 | 1.6856054 | 0.000 |
| None | labour_yimby | 3.237 | 2.0050919 | 0.001 |
| None | parliamentary_black_caucus | 2.952 | 5.1208789 | 0.003 |
| None | first_elected_by_parliamentMiliband | 2.381 | 1.1703035 | 0.017 |
| None | mp_final_religSikh | 2.363 | 2.3991038 | 0.018 |