Residential Burglary in Victoria: Is the Rise in Home Invasions Real or Media Hype?

Ritika Moocheet (s4069627)

Data & Scope

  • Source: Crime Statistics Agency Victoria (CSA), Year ending June 2025 (open data)

  • Tables: Recorded Offences by LGA; Alleged Offender Incidents

  • Focus: Property & Deception > Burglary/Break & Enter > Residential(Aggravated & Non Aggravated)

  • Units: Offences (state/LGA), alleged offender incidents (age groups)

  • Limitation: Age available at Property & Deception division level (proxy)

Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (2025). Recorded Offences by Local Government Area; Alleged Offender Incidents (Year ending June 2025) [Data sets]. https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/index.php/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/download-data/

Property & Deception Offences in Victoria (2016 – 2025)

  • Property and deception offences declined steadily from 2016 to 2022, reaching their lowest level during the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Since 2022, offences have risen sharply, with 2025 recording the highest total in nearly a decade.

  • This rebound in post-pandemic years indicates a renewed surge in property-related crime, framing the need to examine burglary trends more closely.

Burglary/Break & Enter Offences in Victoria (2016 – 2025)

  • Burglary offences dropped steadily from 2016 to 2022, reaching their lowest point during the pandemic.

  • Since 2022, cases have risen sharply (up by around 60%) in three years.

  • 2025 levels now approach pre-pandemic highs, suggesting a return to earlier crime patterns.

  • The trend indicates that burglary remains a key driver behind the broader rise in property crime.

  • Residential aggravated burglary (B311) covers home invasions involving confrontation or weapons.

  • Non-aggravated cases (B321) involve unoccupied or opportunistic entries.

  • Both categories declined after 2016 but have risen again since 2022, driven mainly by non-aggravated incidents.

  • The upward trend aligns with recent reports of increased home invasions.

Where Are Residential Burglaries Occurring? (2025)

  • Aggravated and non-aggravated cases follow similar spatial patterns.

  • Concentrations align with population growth and new-housing areas.

  • Lower levels occur in regional Victoria.

Top 10 LGAs for Residential Burglaries (2025)

  • Casey and Wyndham lead aggravated burglary counts.

  • Melbourne CBD and Geelong dominate non-aggravated cases.

  • Outer suburbs show more forceful break-ins, inner-city areas more opportunistic thefts.

  • Highlights contrasting burglary dynamics across Victoria.

Age and Gender Profile of Alleged Offenders (2025)

  • Males account for the majority of recorded Property & Deception offences across all age groups.

  • The 30–34 age range shows the highest number of alleged offenders.

  • Female offenders are present across all groups but at much lower frequencies.

  • The chart reflects offence counts, not population-adjusted rates; interpretation should consider demographic composition.

Conclusion

  • Property and Deception offences, including burglary, have increased considerably since 2022.

  • Residential Burglary, both aggravated and non-aggravated category, shows a clear upward trend.

  • The pattern aligns with heightened media attention on home-invasion incidents in Victoria.

  • Males aged 25–34 represent the largest share of alleged offenders, suggesting that the rise in incidents may be concentrated among this demographic.

  • Overall, the data indicates a renewed escalation in burglary activity after several years of decline.

References

ABC News. (2025, September 25). Victoria crime statistics agency: Highest number of criminal incidents on record.https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-25/victoria-crime-statistics-agency-new-stats-highest-number/105814382

9 News. (2025). Home invasion.https://www.9news.com.au/home-invasion

Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (2025). Recorded Offences by Local Government Area, Year ending June 2025 [Data set].https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/download-data

Crime Statistics Agency Victoria. (2025). Alleged Offender Incidents by Age Group and Offence Division, Year ending June 2025 [Data set].https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/crime-statistics/latest-victorian-crime-data/download-data