Australian Federal Election 2025
Riko Hachimine (s3892455)
Who won?
- Landslide win for the Australian Labor Party (ALP). - Shocking result:
several models predicted only a modest majority e.g. Roy Morgan poll
forecast Labor 51.5 % vs 48.5 % Liberal, estimating 74 seats for Labor
vs 64 for the Coalition.
Detail
| National party totals – 2025 Federal Election |
| Vote totals, percentage share, swing vs 2022, and seat changes |
|
Vote count |
Vote % |
Swing |
Seats won |
Changed |
Leader |
| Labor |
5,354,002 |
34.6% |
+2.0% |
94 |
+16 |
Anthony Albanese |
|---|
| L/NP (Coalition) |
4,929,374 |
31.8% |
-3.9% |
43 |
-14 |
Peter Dutton |
|---|
| The Greens |
1,889,971 |
12.2% |
+0.0% |
1 |
-3 |
Adam Bandt |
|---|
| One Nation |
991,804 |
6.4% |
+1.4% |
0 |
+0 |
Pauline Hanson |
|---|
| Trumpet of Patriots |
296,067 |
1.9% |
-2.2% |
0 |
+0 |
— |
|---|
| Others / Independents |
2,028,724 |
13.1% |
+2.7% |
12 |
+1 |
Various |
|---|
| Source: Australian Electoral Commission. (2025).
2025 Federal Election: House of Representatives – final results |
- Peter Dutton lost his seat — a symbolic defeat for the Liberal
Party.
- Liberal suffered the largest national swing (-3.9%), reflecting
strategic missteps.
Result by state
- The pattern shows broad-based support rather than a single regional
surge.
Dickson result
- Opposition leader Peter Dutton lost his seat — the first time in
modern Australian history that a opposition leader was unseated at a
federal election.
What happened over a year?
- Support for Liberal gradually weakened through early 2025 - Policy
uncertainty, especially around the nuclear energy proposal, failed to
gain public trust. - By March 2025, Labor overtook Liberal
What happened this year?
- Liberal support declined sharply after March 2025, breaking a steady
lead held since early in the year. - The timing coincided with Donald
Trump’s introduction of new trade tariffs, reigniting fears of economic
instability and global tension.
Factor 1: Trust in Government
- Trust in government remains higher and more stable in Australia than
in comparable democracies such as Japan, the UK, and the US,
highlighting how political consistency and reliability influence
Australian voter behaviour.
Factor 2: Australia’s demographic reality
- Australia’s 31.5% overseas-born population weakens nationalist appeal.
- Voters respond more to inclusive and globally minded leadership.
Overall
- The 2025 Federal Election result reflected a
combination of global, national, and political factors.
- Inconsistent messaging from the Liberal Party —
particularly around the nuclear energy policy — eroded voter confidence.
The “Donald Trump effect” triggered a backlash after
the U.S. introduced tariffs in March 2025, weakening Liberal momentum as
public sentiment turned against conservative trade rhetoric. Australia’s
diverse population — with over 30% of citizens born
overseas — made it harder for nationalism-focused messaging to
resonate.
- Meanwhile, the Labor Party benefited from steady
leadership, consistent communication, and a focus on social
trust and stability.
- Together, these factors produced a historic swing
toward Labor, marking a decisive rejection of uncertainty and populist
narratives.