Beyond the Landslide: How Labor Won 2025

AEC open data, simple robust parsing, and clear visuals

Sparsh Sindwani (4140265)

1) Audience & Goal

Audience: engaged voters, students of politics, policy analysts.
Goal: go past headlines to show where Labor’s 2025 gains came from — by division, state, and swing — using official AEC open data.

2) Data status (files detected)

This slide confirms whether all local CSVs are in the data/ folder next to the Rmd.

All required files found. ✅

3) Seats won (2025)

Caption: Final seat tally by party; look for a clear ALP majority and the relative crossbench size.

4) Seats that changed hands (2025)

State Division From → To
NSW Banks Liberal → Australian Labor Party
NSW Bradfield Liberal → Independent
NSW Calare The Nationals → Independent
NSW Hughes Liberal → Australian Labor Party
QLD Bonner Liberal National Party of Queensland → Australian Labor Party
QLD Brisbane The Greens → Australian Labor Party
QLD Dickson Liberal National Party of Queensland → Australian Labor Party
QLD Forde Liberal National Party of Queensland → Australian Labor Party
QLD Griffith The Greens → Australian Labor Party
QLD Leichhardt Liberal National Party of Queensland → Australian Labor Party
QLD Petrie Liberal National Party of Queensland → Australian Labor Party
SA Sturt Liberal → Australian Labor Party
TAS Bass Liberal → Australian Labor Party
TAS Braddon Liberal → Australian Labor Party
VIC Aston Liberal → Australian Labor Party
VIC Deakin Liberal → Australian Labor Party
VIC Goldstein Independent → Liberal
VIC Melbourne The Greens → Australian Labor Party
VIC Menzies Liberal → Australian Labor Party
WA Moore Liberal → Australian Labor Party

Caption: Changes of hands reveal where momentum shifted; clustering suggests localised factors.

5) Division swings (2025 vs 2022)

Caption: Distribution skews towards ALP; median swing ≈ 3.1 pp.

6) Top 15 biggest movers

Caption: Largest absolute swing: Braddon (TAS) at 15.2 pp.

7) State-level TPP (2022 vs 2025)

Caption: Biggest ALP TPP gain: TAS (9 pp). Smallest/negative: NT (-1.3 pp).

8) First-preference shifts (by state)

Caption: Average change across states — Australian Labor Party: 2.6 pp | The Greens: -0.9 pp.

9) Ethics & integrity (brief)

  • Counts ≠ causes: swings show association, not causation.
  • Context: redistributions, incumbency and local campaigns affect results.
  • Source reliability: all data from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) open CSV downloads.
  • Reproducibility: this document reads raw CSVs, applies light cleaning only, and shows all transformations.

10) References (APA 7th)