Australian Election 2025

Beyond the Landslide

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May 2025

Australian Election 2025

Beyond the Landslide

What the media missed in Labor’s historic victory

The Headline Story

89 SEATS

Labor’s commanding majority

+9.9% two-party preferred swing
12 seats changed hands
Coalition reduced to 52 seats

National Vote Share: Then vs Now

The Geographic Story

Pattern #1: The Marginal Seat Wipeout

All 10 most marginal Coalition seats fell to Labor

Pattern #2: Youth Vote Revolution

13+ point swing among 18-34 year olds

Pattern #3: Urban-Rural Divide

+11.2%
Urban Areas
Sydney, Melbourne,<br>Brisbane, Perth
+6.8%
Regional
Rural & remote<br>electorates

What This Means for 2028

Three Key Predictions

1. Youth Realignment is Real
If maintained, reshapes politics for decades

2. New Marginal Seats Emerge
Coalition must win back Bass, Macquarie, Gilmore

3. Regional Disconnect Grows
Urban-rural divide could define next election

Seats to Watch in 2028

Labor Must Defend
  • Bass (TAS) - 5.2%
  • Macquarie (NSW) - 5.5%
  • Gilmore (NSW) - 5.9%
Coalition Must Win
  • Page (NSW)
  • Boothby (SA)
  • Deakin (VIC)

Thank You

Data Source:
Australian Electoral Commission (2025). Federal Election Results.
Retrieved from https://www.aec.gov.au/

Note: This presentation uses simulated data for demonstration