Melbourne’s population is projected to grow from 354,801 in 2023 to 584,262 by 2043 — an increase of 229,461 people in just two decades. The 25–39 age group remains dominant, rising from 159,915 (45.1%) to 247,573 (42.4%), while the 60+ group grows from 33,758 (9.5%) to 47,490 (8.1%). Both increase in number but decline slightly in share, reflecting a broader, more balanced age mix.

Gender proportions are also stable. In 2023, there were 180,304 females and 174,497 males, a difference of 5,807 people. By 2043, the gap widens slightly to 8,014, with females comprising 50.7% of the population. The ratio remains close to 49:51, showing a balanced demographic profile.

Overall, Melbourne’s population growth is youthful, diverse, and gender-balanced. This shows a strong workforce base for the decades ahead. The next slide explores where this expansion will occur and which neighbourhoods will grow fastest

This slide highlights the Top 10 areas in Melbourne by dwelling growth rate (2023–2040). Data from the City of Melbourne’s Dwellings Forecasts show that growth is concentrated in a few key inner suburbs.

North Melbourne leads the ranking with an impressive 47.3% increase, adding more than 4,400 new dwellings. This rapid growth is largely driven by the Arden Precinct redevelopment, which will bring new housing, jobs, and transport links through the Metro Tunnel – Arden Station (opening 2025). West Melbourne (Residential) and Kensington follow with growth rates above 30%, reflecting strong urban renewal along Melbourne’s western corridor.

Meanwhile, Melbourne (CBD) continues to expand (+7,360 dwellings, 19.3%), while Southbank and Docklands sustain steady high-density development. Outer areas such as Carlton, South Yarra, and East Melbourne record more moderate growth under 10%, indicating maturity and limited redevelopment potential.

A growing city needs more than homes — it needs jobs that match its people. By 2040, employment in Melbourne consolidates around three main clusters: Knowledge, Service, and Industrial sectors.

The data show that Business Services lead the city’s workforce, followed by Finance & Insurance, Healthcare & Social Assistance, and Public Administration — all part of the Knowledge economy. Together, they account for nearly 40% of total employment, driven by Melbourne’s expanding professional base and its role as a national business hub.

Service-oriented sectors such as Food & Beverage, Retail Trade, and Accommodation remain vital for daily urban life, providing thousands of jobs across hospitality, tourism, and retail. Meanwhile, Industrial sectors — including Transport, Postal & Storage and Utilities — continue to modernise but now form a smaller share of the total.

Melbourne’s economy is changing shape. By 2040, the Knowledge Economy dominates, accounting for ≈40% of all jobs. Within it, Business Services (15–18%), Finance & Insurance (12–15%), and Healthcare & Social Assistance (10–12%) emerge as the city’s largest employers. These sectors grow rapidly, driven by population expansion, ageing demographics, and Melbourne’s role as a national corporate hub.

The Service Economy follows with ≈33% of employment, led by Food & Beverage (8–10%) and Retail Trade (6–8%). Growth here stabilises after 2035 as markets mature. Meanwhile, Industrial sectors—including Transport, Utilities, and Manufacturing—continue to shrink, now representing only ≈13% of total jobs.

The interactive line chart reveals these trajectories clearly: clicking a sector highlights its trend while others fade, following Few’s (2006) visual emphasis principle.

Overall, Melbourne is transitioning from factory floors to office towers — from production to innovation — powered by people, skills, and ideas rather than land or machinery

How will Melbourne’s new residents live? The answer is clear — vertically.

Across the Top 8 growth areas, apartments dominate the housing mix, ranging from 60 % in Carlton to nearly 100 % in Southbank, CBD, and Docklands. This reflects deliberate planning policy that channels density toward transport corridors and job centres, reducing urban sprawl while maximising land efficiency.

Three Housing Patterns Emerge:

• Pure High-Rise Zones (90–100 % apartments): North Melbourne, Southbank, CBD, and Docklands deliver vertical density on compact sites near metro and tram networks.

• Mixed-Form Precincts (60–85 % apartments): West Melbourne, Kensington, and Carlton retain heritage townhouses and detached homes, creating visual and social diversity.

• Design Challenge: When almost all new dwellings are apartments, urban design quality becomes critical. Residents need public open space, active ground floors, and well-designed buildings to sustain daily life.

Melbourne’s future housing form is apartment by necessity but liveability by design — the success of growth will depend not only on how high we build, but on how well we design for people

Where should investment and planning focus next? This dashboard brings four key metrics together — Population Growth (35%), Jobs Diversity (25%), Housing Mix (25%), and CBD Access (15%) — into one Composite Score measuring urban potential across Melbourne’s small areas.

Population growth carries the highest weight because demand drives everything else. Jobs diversity and housing mix balance economic stability with efficient land use, while CBD access reflects connectivity and convenience.

Use the dashboard to search, sort, and filter by metric — compare fast-growing neighbourhoods with job-rich or highly connected areas. Green bars show Composite Score strength at a glance.

High-scoring zones like North Melbourne and Southbank combine strong population growth, diverse jobs, vertical density, and central location — the essential ingredients for Melbourne’s sustainable urban future