Victoria crime after COVID: 2022 to 2025
Digging into what rose, where it happened, and how unemployment relates
Jeffrey Pathan (s4139612)
Victoria’s Crime Trend After COVID (2022–2025)
If you have been on social media lately, you have probably seen a lot of news about crimes happening in Australia. From a Melbourne homeowner chasing down an intruder in his underwear to a young woman being stabbed in the chest in the middle of the CBD, these incidents have made many people wonder whether Victoria is still safe.
Looking at the data, the trend is worrying. In 2022, Victoria recorded around 450,000 offences, and the number has increased every year since. By 2025, total offences exceeded 600,000, marking the largest single-year jump of 14.9 percent between 2024 and 2025, which suggests a strong post-pandemic rebound in criminal activity.
This steady upward trend raises an important question: What is happening in Victoria? With crime continuing to rise, residents have every reason to be concerned and to call on the government to take stronger action to prevent further increases.
Which Crimes Drove the 2025 Spike?
After knowing that 2025 marks a big jump, we dig further to find which offences are behind it. This graph clearly shows that 5 out of 6 offence divisions increased compared to 2024. The highest rise was in Property and deception offences, which surged by 20.5%. Property and deception offences (Division B) saw the largest increase, meaning crimes like theft, burglary, and fraud grew significantly in 2025. The data highlights that the biggest crime growth in Victoria came from property-related offences, not drug crimes. This may reflect economic stress as a key contributing factor.
How Crime Divisions Evolved Over Time
Before we get a little deeper, here is the overview of division trends from 2022 to 2025. It is clear that Property and deception offences have always been a big issue in Victoria. The jump from 2022 to 2023 is 14.7%, and from 2023 to 2024 is 15.1%, both double-digit increases. This is clearly an issue that the government has not been able to stop, as it has been happening for a long time. Moreover, the other divisions are also increasing but not as much as Property and deception offences. Overall, most offence types increased, but the main driver of Victoria’s crime growth from 2022 to 2025 was Property and deception offences.
Inside Division B: The Fastest-Growing Crimes
Under Division B, the main drivers behind the sharp rise in offences are quite clear. Ranked first is B40 Theft, which increased by 77.1% compared to 2022. That is an enormous jump, nearly doubling in just four years. Next is B30 Burglary/Break and enter, which also saw a major increase. As mentioned earlier, cases of home intrusions, like the news story of a father chasing down intruders, have become more common in Victoria. Another noticeable rise is B60 Bribery, which grew by 200%. While that percentage sounds alarming, the actual numbers are small, increasing from just 3 offences in 2022 to 9 in 2025. It is still concerning, but not at the same scale as theft and burglary.
Theft Hotspots Across Victoria in 2025
Theft ranks first under both Division B and overall crime types. If we can reduce or prevent this from rising, it could help lower many other offences as well. The top location for theft is retail, where incidents like people running out of stores such as 7-Eleven or Coles have become more common. Next is street or footpath theft, making public areas increasingly unsafe. Notably, 14% of thefts occurred in private homes, showing that even dwellings are not entirely safe. Most theft in Victoria in 2025 happened in public and commercial areas, suggesting that theft is becoming more opportunistic and visible. If we can reduce theft by just 1%, it could help lower thousands of offences overall and ease the pressure on Victoria’s crime rate.
Does Unemployment Drive Crime?
We now know that theft is the main reason behind the sharp increase in overall crime. But why do people steal? Often, it comes down to financial struggle and the need for money. In this graph, we compare the unemployment rate with the total number of recorded offences. We can see a clear relationship between the two. As unemployment rose, so did crime, suggesting a link between economic stress and rising offences. When people face financial difficulties, property-related crimes like theft and burglary tend to become more frequent. This shows that addressing unemployment and cost-of-living pressures could help reduce crime levels in Victoria.
