What the Headlines Missed

“Labor wins.”

Sure. But here’s what they didn’t tell you:

• 1 in 4 seats wasn’t even Labor vs Liberal
• Vote totals mysteriously hit 99.9% or 100.1%
• Some candidates went from 20% to 70%

Let’s dig into the data.

The Two-Party Myth

35 of 150 seats didn’t end up Labor vs Coalition.
Think: Greens vs Labor. Independent vs Liberal.

The “two-party system”? Not for 23% of Australia.

Where the Rules Break Down

NSW and Victoria dominate the list.
Big cities = more players. Simple.

The 0.1% That Isn’t a Scandal

Why do totals hit 99.9% or 100.1%?
Rounding. Each candidate rounded to 1 decimal.

Not fraud. Just math.

The Secret to Labor’s Win

Labor’s first vote: ~35%
Labor’s final tally: ~60%. That’s +25 points from preferences.
Greens voters saved them.

The Pattern

Every dot above the line = preferences helped Labor.
Almost every seat is above the line.

The Wild Ones

Clark: +51 points, Wills: +47 points, Melbourne: +43 points. First preferences? Meaningless here.

What You Should Know

First: Don’t assume it’s always Labor vs Liberal. Check.

Second: Tiny rounding errors are normal. Relax.

Third: Preferences decide elections. Primary votes lie.

Data literacy = reading between the lines.

References

Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). 2025 federal election: House of Representatives downloads [Data set]. https://results.aec.gov.au/31496/Website/HouseDownloadsMenu-31496-Csv.htm

Analysis: R (tidyverse) | Slideshow: reveal.js | October 2025