Which Premier League Teams Deliver and Which Disappoint (2020–2025)

Assignment 3: Storytelling with Data

Nomaan Patvi (s4139253)

29 October 2025

Why xG vs Reality?

  • xG (expected goals) estimates chance quality and xGA does the same for chances conceded.
  • Comparing actual goals with xG shows finishing efficiency and defensive resilience.
  • Question: Which EPL teams deliver more/less than expected (2020/21–2024/25)?
  • Data: EPL team-season summary (goals, xG/xGA, points), 2020/21–2024/25.

Data & Methods

Item Detail
Seasons 2020/21 – 2024/25
Teams 27
Key fields goals_for, goals_against, points, xg_for, xga
Derived metrics goal_diff = GF-GA; xg_diff = xGF-xGA; eff_index = (GF-GA) - (xGF-xGA); gpg; ppg

Top 5 teams with highest xG across all 5 seasons

Top 5 Scoring Teams across all 5 seasons

Are Top Scorers Efficient?

Team Efficiency

Analysis

  • Here we can see, 4 out of 5 of our top scorers are very efficient and not wasteful of their chances. Therefore, we can say that teams having higher xG are prone to convert their chances.
  • Teams are scoring higher number of goals because they are creating more number of chances.
  • Chelsea has low efficiency while converting their chances into goals. But does this effect their success?
  • Let us check if having high xG can give you more success in the English Premier League.

Top 5 teams with highest number of points across all 5 seasons

What story does total points say?

  • We can see 4 out of 5 teams have most number of goals in the league across all 5 seasons as well as high xG.
  • In previous slide we asked, does having low efficiency, effect the success of Chelsea? We can see no it does not. But why? We will discuss this in further slides.
  • 80 percent teams who are creating more chances to score are winning the matches and getting success.
  • But why Tottenham Hotspur is replaced by Manchester United in the points race?

Comparision between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United

Analysis

  • Manchester United has lower xG as well less amount of goals than Tottenham Hotspur.
  • Even Manchester United are way less efficient in converting chances into goals than Tottenham Hotspur.
  • Then why Tottenham Hotspur is failing to win more matches and points for themselves in last 5 years?

xGA of Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Chelsea

Analysis

  • The data suprises us and tells us that, Manchester United have higher xGA than Tottenham Hotspur. This means they are giving more and quality chances to the rival teams and are more exposed to high quality attacks. Manchester United has same xGA as League’s average xGA.
  • Tottenham Hotspur on the other hand are careful and they are stopping their rivals from making high quality attacks against them.

Analysis

  • But the story shows that even after more high quality attacks against Manchester United, they are disciplined and resilient in their defence and they save goals which reduces their goals conceded.
  • Tottenham Hotspur are conceding goals against weaker attacks because of their silly mistakes, or bad luck which leaves them behind in the premier league.
  • Case study of Chelsea shows that, even if they are less efficient in converting chances into goals, but they are very sturdy in defence and they prevent their rivals in taking top notch chances against them and they concede less.

Exceptions

Analysis

  • These exception shows that even if your Net xG is good, you can end up 16th in the league and in a season you must be having Net xG in negative, then too you can finish under top 10 in the league.
  • But the exceptions are very rare, so it does not hinder our findings.

Conclusion

  • From this data story, we find out that English Premier League is very competitive league as we can see there are 3 teams which are very promising and are performing from last 5 seasons. Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal have very high xG and most amount of goals which means creating chances is benificial for them as they are converting them.

Conclusion

  • We also get to know Chelsea which is not very efficient in their attacking and goal conversion, still manage to be in top 5 teams in the league due to lower xGA and goals conceded.
  • Tottenham Hotspur disappoints us as they have very high xG, high number of goals, lower xGA than Manchester United, same amount of wins as Manchester United, but still falling behind them, due to high number of goals conceded in the league which has increased their loss-draw ratio.

Thank you