Australian Federal Election 2025 – Data Story

Sunil Reddy Surasani - s4113638

Introduction

  • Australia’s political course will be significantly shaped by the 2025 Australian Federal Election.
  • How votes translated into seat outcomes is revealed by the Two-Candidate-Preferred (2CP) analysis between Labor and the Coalition.
  • The analysis reveals voter trends and regional fluctuations using division-level data from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).
  • The analysis identifies important battlegrounds, safe versus marginal seats, and demographic trends by contrasting ALP 2CP shares and margins.
  • The project improves the public’s comprehension of the locations and causes of electoral swings across the country through lucid data visualization.

Where did divisions sit relative to 50%?

  • The curve shows the overall shape of ALP two-candidate-preferred (2CP).
  • The dashed line at 50% marks the tipping point between win/loss.
  • Long tails indicate pockets of strong partisan support.
  • Use this to see whether 2025 strength was broad or concentrated.

Which divisions were most ALP-leaning vs Coalition-leaning?

  • Ranks the top 10 most ALP-leaning and top 10 most Coalition-leaning seats.
  • Bars extend from 50% to each division’s ALP 2CP value.
  • Useful to spot outliers and target seats for next time.
  • Helps identify strategic priorities for campaign focus and voter outreach.

Where were the closest contests (±5 percentage points)?

  • Shows divisions within ±5 pp of a 50–50 split.
  • Green bars lean ALP; red bars lean Coalition.
  • The closer to zero, the easier to flip next election.
  • This is the battleground map for campaign strategy.

How safe were wins for each side?

  • Seats grouped by absolute TCP margin bands.
  • More “Ultra-marginal”/“Marginal” seats = more volatile map.
  • A heavier “Safe/Very safe” mix = durable control.
  • Compare balance of risk between ALP vs Coalition.

How did states differ?

  • Left: State mean of ALP 2CP (%), dot size = number of divisions.
  • Right: State mean |TCP margin| (higher = less competitive).
  • Pairs strength with competitiveness to reveal easy vs hard terrain.
  • Use for state-by-state strategy and resource allocation.

Do higher ALP shares translate to safer seats?

  • Each point is a division; line is a simple linear trend.
  • Right/up = stronger ALP share and larger ALP margin.
  • Points near axes lines mark potential future flips.
  • Use this to link vote share and seat security.

Conclusion

  • With steady shifts across metropolitan and regional areas, the 2025 Australian Federal Election validated Labor’s widespread national majority.
  • The results of the two-candidate-preferred (2CP) poll showed how the competitive balance varied, making voters susceptible to future political shifts.
  • ALP gains were dispersed rather than concentrated, according to state-level averages, indicating a more profound political shift.
  • The importance of honest data storytelling in comprehending election results beyond headline numbers is illustrated by this graphic tale.

References

  • Australian Electoral Commission. (2025). 2025 Federal Election – Two-candidate-preferred results by division [Dataset]. Retrieved from https://results.aec.gov.au/
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2023). Regional population statistics, Australia – 2023 release [Data set]. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics
  • Curtin, J. (2024). Voting behaviour and swing dynamics in Australian federal elections. Australian Journal of Politics and History, 70(4), 621–639. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajph.13211
  • McAllister, I. (2023). Political realignment and electoral change in Australia: The rise of Labor’s majority. Canberra: Australian National University Press.