October 29, 2025

The Milwaukee Brewers just finished what many would consider to be the best year in franchise history. The 2025 team won the NL Central, secured the first overall seed in the NL for the postseason, and finished with the best regular season record at 97 wins and 65 losses, with the wins setting the record for most wins in a season in franchise history. On top of that, the roster from top to bottom was the most complete it’s ever been. Freddy Peralta had his best year as a starter, Jacob Misiorowski was one of the most electric prospects to come out of the farm system, William Contreras was solidifying his case for being one of the best catchers in the league, and Brice Turang had his breakout year. For Pat Murphy in his second year at the helm of this ball club, it felt like the sky was the limit for this team.

However, the storybook season did not come to fruition, as the Brewers ended up getting swept in the Championship Series by the Dodgers, who are on the hunt to become the first repeat World Series champions since the Yankees all the way back in 2000. For a team who had been so dominant all year in all aspects, some things just didn’t click for them. Even though the offense struck out 41 times and had a combined .118 batting average through four games, the pitching staff hadn’t been at the top of their game either. In 34 innings, the Brewers pitchers combined for a 3.71 ERA, coupled with 32 hits, a 1.441 WHIP, and a 37-17 strikeout to walk ratio. While not necessarily horrible, these numbers don’t compare to those that were compiled across the regular season.

While there have been some negatives to end the year, the future still looks bright. The culture of the team is exceptional, and a lot of the roster is going to return for the upcoming 2026 season. Fortunately, there is one pitching prospect that I believe is going to really give the pitching staff the leg that it finally needs to bring home that championship.

That young man’s name is Tyson Hardin.

Hardin, the recipient of the 2025 Robin Yount Performance Award Pitcher of the Year, is a right-handed pitcher listed at 6’2” and 185 pounds. Major League Baseball has Hardin currently ranked 7th among pitchers and 20th overall on the Brewers Prospect Rankings. He spent the first two years of his collegiate career at Daytona State College, before transferring to Mississippi State University and playing two more years before getting selected with the 365th pick in the 12th round of the 2024 draft.

Hardin has a four-pitch mix that includes a fastball, cutter, slider, and a changeup, although his changeup is thrown primarily to lefties. His fastball and cutter are graded as a 50, his slider is his best pitch at 55, and his changeup is graded as a 40. Combine this with a control grade of 55, and this turns his overall grade to a 45 on the 20-80 scale. All of his pitches play together very well; his fastball plays well up in the zone, which gives him the opportunity to set up his slider low in the zone to get hitters to chase, and his cutter and changeup offer him versatility to where he can throw something that looks like a fastball but eventually breaks off to miss barrels.

Tyson would fit well anywhere in this Brewers pitching staff. While he would find success being a long reliever, the team would get maximum benefit out of him by turning him into a day 4/5 starter. Since his command is good and his arsenal is so cohesive, he has the ability to save the bullpen by stretching his starts to go deep into games, and can even fill that long reliever role by holding an opponent for 4+ innings in the middle of the game.

Season Stats

In the 2025 season, Hardin pitched to a 6-5 record and a 2.72 ERA across 96 innings in 21 games, with 96 hits, 29 earned runs, 96 strikeouts, 17 walks, 3 hit by pitches, and a WHIP of 1.177, which also includes a complete game shutout. His 5.65-1 strikeout to walk ratio is incredible, and is something that has been improved upon drastically since the year he was drafted.

Something that Tyson does exceptionally well is limit the free bases. In an era where the bases are bigger and players are faster and smarter, forcing hitters to earn their way on base is a skill that is more crucial than ever before. This year, while the Brewers ranked 6th in baseball in strikeout rate (23.7%), they also ranked 22nd in walk rate (8.8%). Meanwhile, Hardin has a walk rate of 4.4% to go along with an exceptional strikeout rate of 24.7%.

The plot above showcases the strikeout and walk rate for every Brewers Pitcher, including Hardin. He would have ranked first among all starters in walk rate, and second among the entire pitching staff in that same statistic.

Something else that makes Hardin the ideal prospect is his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers. FIP takes into account only the things that are directly caused by pitchers, and negates every other outcome. The only outcomes considered to derive the statistic is home runs, walks, hit by pitches, and strikeouts, as all of these outcomes do not involve the defense. Hardin had a FIP of 2.35 across his 96 innings.

As you can see, the chart above shows that Tyson Hardin would actually rank first among the entire pitching staff in FIP. This is a key indicator, as it tells us that while he’s very good at getting guys to swing and miss, he also doesn’t allow any powerful contact and allows his defense to work behind him.

Another thing that really stands out about Hardin is his ERA throughout the game. Tyson’s first inning ERA through 21 games is a 3.43, but it continues to get better as he progresses through the game. This number does eventually surge up to a 4.91 in the fifth inning, but he manages to decrease the number right back down to zero for the duration of the contest.

This plots showcases all of the current Brewers starting pitchers and their ERAs for different innings. You’ll notice that while everyone’s ERA gradually increases, Hardin’s stats manage to trend in the right direction as the game progresses. This indicates that he not only possesses the ability to pitch deep into games, but that he also gets progressively tougher to hit, which is a great trait to have.

One final thing that should be brought to attention is Hardin’s situational pitching. As I mentioned earlier, he does a stellar job of limiting free passes and really forces hitters to grind their way onto the bases.

Tyson Hardin Baserunner Situation Stats and Rankings
Situation Games IP BF H Hits Rank BB Walk Rank SO Strikeout Rank WHIP WHIP Rank
Bases Empty 21 54.1 234 57 3 11 1 58 5 1.25 5
Bases Loaded 3 1.0 3 0 1 0 1 1 2 0.00 1
Runner at 1st 21 17.0 59 14 3 2 2 11 6 0.94 2
Runner at 2nd 16 11.0 41 8 6 2 2 14 1 0.91 4
Runner at 3rd 7 3.1 20 8 7 1 2 2 2 2.70 6
Runners at 1st & 2nd 12 6.0 18 5 3 0 1 7 4 0.83 4
Runners at 1st & 3rd 6 1.1 7 3 4 0 1 1 6 2.25 6
Runners at 2nd & 3rd 5 1.1 6 1 2 1 4 2 3 1.50 3

If you take a look at the chart above, you’ll notice that he would be ranked 1st and 2nd in walks against all Brewers starters in all but one situational category. Even if his strikeout numbers start to digress as the offense tries to rally, he still manages to keep composure and force players to hit their way out of the inning. Even though he gives up hits with runners in scoring position, he’s at least not handing them runs.

Fixable Issues

Now, while he has been very good this season at all of the aforementioned things, there are some issues that should be addressed this offseason that would be supremely beneficial to his young pitching career. The first problem that I would start to address is his approach to left-handed hitters.

Tyson Hardin Hitter Splits
Handedness IP BF H HR BB SO WHIP
vs Left 33.1 152 42 2 12 32 1.62
vs Right 60.2 236 54 1 5 64 0.97

If you take a look at his hitter splits, his numbers against lefties is shocking when compared to his numbers against righties. He only sees lefties a third of the time, but he’s given up almost the same amount of hits, doubled the amount of walks, and cut the amount of strikeouts in half. If he is able to translate the success that he sees against righties to lefties, it will be a total game changer for him.

I also want to address his ERA by inning situation. If you remember, Hardin had a drastic spike in his numbers that occurred around the fifth inning. Even though he’s able to regain composure to keep himself in the game, he can’t afford to let one bad inning ruin the team’s chance at winning.

The graph above shows Hardin’s ERA (teal line) by inning, as well as his WHIP (orange line). You’ll notice that as his ERA increases, his WHIP increases at the same rate. This begs the question, is he giving up too many hits, or is he walking too many guys, and then giving up hits that score multiple runs at once?

The line chart above showcases his amount of hits (blue line) and walks (green line) given up by inning. I want to point out the difference between the amount of hits and walks that he gives up. While both stats decrease as the game advances, you’ll notice that the fifth inning has the largest gap between the amount of hits and amount of walks that Hardin gives up. Across every fifth inning he’s thrown, he’s surrendered 14 hits and only one walk. So while he’s still not giving guys a free pass, there is some tweaking to be done when facing the lineup a second and third time around.

The final issue I want to bring up is his situational pitching. While I did say it was a positive when it came to his walks, it also has a drawback when it comes to his hits. If you revisit that chart, his ranking amongst the Brewers starters when it came to hits and WHIP was not very impressive. In fact, he ranked 6th in hits with runners on second and 7th in hits with runners on third. On top of that, he ranked 4th, 5th, or 6th in WHIP for five different scenarios. Even if he continues to be very good at limiting walks, he can’t afford to keep giving up hits in critical situations.

Potential Solutions

Even though he has his share of issues, the good news is that all of these things have pathways that lead to success. The first thing I would focus on is throwing his changeup to righties more often, specifically towards his glove side. Think about it: when a lefty steps into the box against Hardin, they are expecting to see some changeups getting paired with the fastball. Due to this, their approach becomes waiting back and getting everything to the opposite side of the field. This allows for solid contact against the fastball but also staying through the swing to get the changeup up the middle into centerfield. On top of this, lefties are willing to take anything that comes in on the inner half of the plate, which essentially eliminates the cutter and slider. If Hardin can get comfortable throwing the changeup to his glove side, it will allow him to do one of two things: 1) open up both sides of the plate for lefties, forcing them to make a decision and adjust their approach, and 2) give Tyson all four of his pitches at his disposal against righties, which keeps hitters guessing every time he delivers a pitch.

Another thing that he should put focus on in the offseason is making pitches with runners in scoring positions, and a place he can take advantage of working on that is his bullpens and catch play. If he is able to create an environment that feels like a high leverage situation, he will feel less pressure in the actual game. Something he can do to make it feel game-like is add in his looks to the baserunners. Being able to mix looks can disrupt timing for not only the hitters but the baserunners too, as it doesn’t allow them to get good jumps and take extra bags.

All in all, Hardin has been nothing short of stellar this year. After making a clear jump from his first professional year to now, he has all of the intangibles to make him an excellent addition to the Brewers rotation. Even if there are some problems that need to be fixed, he’s still very young and has a lot of time to be able address those concerns. Fortunately for him, he’s just getting started.