| Metric | Latest | 1M Ago | 6M Ago | 1Y Ago | Δ 1M | Δ 6M | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y Treasury Rate (%) | 4.00 | 4.14 | 4.34 | 4.08 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| 2Y Treasury Rate (%) | 3.46 | 3.57 | 3.81 | 3.95 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| 30Y Treasury Rate (%) | 4.58 | 4.75 | 4.80 | 4.38 | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ |
| 10Y TIPS Yield (%) | 1.74 | 1.75 | 2.11 | 1.77 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation (%) | 2.28 | 2.39 | 2.22 | 2.31 | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ |
| 10Y-2Y Spread (%) | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.17 | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ |
| 30Y-10Y Spread (%) | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.46 | 0.30 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ |
Signals and Cycles: The Economic Pulse
U.S. Economic Performance Report
Setup and Configuration
Helper Functions
Section 1: The Cost of Capital: Inflation, Yields, and Policy Signals
Yield and Inflation Trends
Key treasury rates show the current interest rate environment and inflation expectations. The 10-year treasury yield serves as the benchmark risk-free rate, while Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields reflect real returns. The key difference between TIPS and ordinary Treasury bonds is that the principal value of TIPS automatically increases with inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index).Breakeven inflation rates indicate market expectations for future inflation over the next decade.
Current Status
Bond yields have declined modestly across most maturities, signaling an easing in overall borrowing costs but also reflecting investor caution about future growth. The flatter Treasury curve, with short-term rates falling more sharply than long-term yields, suggests expectations of slower economic momentum and potential Federal Reserve policy easing. Real yields remain contained and breakeven inflation stable, indicating that markets anticipate a soft landing rather than renewed inflationary pressure—conditions generally favorable for real estate financing and valuation stability.
Current Rates Summary
NoteMetrics Described
10-Year Treasury Rate (%): The 10-year Treasury yield reflects long-term borrowing costs and serves as a benchmark for mortgage and commercial loan rates. Lower yields tend to be favorable for real estate, as they reduce financing costs and increase investor appetite for property. However, if rates fall due to economic weakness, it can signal slowing growth rather than strength.
2-Year Treasury Rate (%): This yield captures short-term market expectations for Federal Reserve policy and near-term inflation. A lower 2-year rate generally eases credit conditions, supporting lending and investment. A rising rate, on the other hand, often reflects tightening monetary policy and pressure on short-term liquidity, which can dampen real estate activity.
30-Year Treasury Rate (%): The 30-year Treasury yield anchors long-term capital markets and affects fixed-rate mortgage pricing. Moderately lower long-term yields reduce debt service burdens and support valuations. Still, an excessively low rate can imply economic stagnation, while higher rates directly erode affordability and cash flow spreads.
10-Year TIPS Yield (%): TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yields represent real, inflation-adjusted returns. Lower real yields tend to support real estate because they make tangible assets relatively more attractive to investors seeking inflation protection. Higher TIPS yields suggest tighter real returns and may draw capital away from property toward bonds.
10-Year Breakeven Inflation (%): This metric shows the market’s inflation expectations over the next decade (the difference between nominal Treasuries and TIPS yields). Moderate inflation expectations (around 2–2.5%) are healthiest for real estate, sustaining rent growth and asset appreciation without undermining affordability. Sharp increases signal inflation risk, while sharp drops may indicate deflationary pressures.
10-Year minus 2-Year Spread (%): The 10Y–2Y spread illustrates the slope of the yield curve between short- and long-term rates. A positive spread (higher 10-year than 2-year yield) indicates normal economic expansion and is beneficial for real estate lending and development. A negative or inverted spread suggests recession risk, typically coinciding with tighter lending and weaker transaction volumes.
30-Year minus 10-Year Spread (%): This spread compares very long-term and long-term yields, signaling investor confidence in distant future growth. A modestly positive spread supports stability in long-duration investments like commercial property, as it implies long-term optimism. A flat or negative spread can reflect uncertainty about future growth or structural stagnation concerns.
Historical Treasury Yield Curves
Inflation Expectations and Real Rates
Term Spread Analysis
Note: Negative values indicate yield curve inversion, historically a recession indicator.
Section 2: Risk Pricing and Credit Market Signals
The Cost of Risk: Credit Premiums and Volatility Indicators
Credit spreads measure the additional yield investors demand for corporate bonds over risk-free treasuries. Widening spreads indicate increased credit risk concerns, while the VIX reflects equity market volatility expectations. High yield spreads reached historic highs during the 2008 crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, providing crucial signals of market stress.
Current Status
Credit markets show tentative easing after a period of elevated yields and spreads. Corporate borrowing costs have edged lower, while investment-grade and high-yield spreads have stabilized—signaling improved liquidity but lingering risk sensitivity. Volatility has risen slightly, yet the overall credit environment remains constructive, supporting refinancing activity and investor confidence across property sectors.
Credit Metrics Summary
| Metric | Latest | 1M Ago | 6M Ago | 1Y Ago | Δ 1M | Δ 6M | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA Corporate Yield (%) | 5.08 | 5.21 | 5.51 | 4.94 | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ |
| BAA Corporate Yield (%) | 5.68 | 5.82 | 6.26 | 5.61 | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ |
| AAA-10Y Spread (bps) | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.17 | 0.86 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| BAA-10Y Spread (bps) | 1.68 | 1.68 | 1.92 | 1.53 | — | ▼ | ▲ |
| VIX Index | 18.23 | 15.45 | 29.65 | 18.03 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| High Yield OAS (bps) | 2.99 | 2.72 | 4.02 | 2.88 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Investment Grade OAS (bps) | 0.79 | 0.74 | 1.11 | 0.83 | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ |
| HY-IG Spread Differential (bps) | 2.20 | 1.98 | 2.91 | 2.05 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
NoteMetrics Described
AAA Corporate Yield (%): The AAA corporate yield represents borrowing costs for the highest-quality corporate issuers. Lower yields suggest strong credit markets, investor confidence, and low perceived risk, all of which support real estate by reducing financing costs and improving liquidity. Rising yields, conversely, signal tighter credit and increased caution among investors.
BAA Corporate Yield (%): This reflects the borrowing rate for lower-investment-grade firms (still creditworthy but riskier than AAA). Lower yields imply healthy credit conditions and broad investor appetite for risk, benefiting real estate developers and tenants alike. Sustained increases often indicate deteriorating credit quality or higher financing costs across sectors.
AAA–10-Year Treasury Spread (bps): This spread measures the premium that top-rated corporations pay over the risk-free Treasury rate. A narrower spread signals strong confidence in corporate credit and a stable economic outlook, favorable for property markets. A wider spread indicates rising credit risk aversion, which can slow lending and transactions.
BAA–10-Year Treasury Spread (bps): This spread captures the additional yield required for moderate-risk companies compared to Treasuries. A smaller spread reflects confidence in business conditions and smoother credit flows, while a widening spread suggests growing credit stress. Real estate markets typically perform better when this spread remains contained, as it implies steady financing availability.
VIX Index: The VIX measures expected stock market volatility, often called the “fear index.” Lower readings indicate market stability and risk appetite, both conducive to capital investment and real estate confidence. Higher levels signal investor uncertainty, frequently coinciding with reduced transaction volume and widening cap rates.
High Yield OAS (bps): The High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread shows the extra yield investors demand for holding speculative-grade corporate debt. Lower spreads imply strong market liquidity and confidence in economic growth, both of which support real estate investment. Rising spreads point to tightening credit and growing recession risk.
Investment Grade OAS (bps): This spread reflects the credit premium for investment-grade corporate bonds after adjusting for embedded options. Narrower spreads indicate stability and easy access to financing, while wider spreads suggest increased caution or emerging stress. Real estate markets thrive when spreads remain low and predictable.
High Yield–Investment Grade Spread Differential (bps): This differential measures the risk gap between speculative and investment-grade debt. A narrow differential signals broad investor confidence and healthy credit conditions, whereas a widening gap often precedes economic slowdowns or market stress. Real estate values typically benefit when this spread remains tight, reflecting a stable credit environment.
Corporate Bond Spreads
Option-Adjusted Spreads: Investment Grade vs High Yield
Market Volatility Index (VIX)
Note: VIX above 20 indicates elevated volatility; above 30 signals high fear in markets.
Section 3:Bank Lending Conditions and Credit Supply
Credit Flow Indicators and Lending Trends
The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) tracks bank lending standards quarterly. Positive net percentages indicate more banks are tightening standards than easing, while negative values show net easing. Significant tightening typically precedes economic slowdowns, as reduced credit availability constrains business investment and consumer spending.
Current Status
Bank lending standards continue to ease gradually from last year’s tightening cycle. Commercial and industrial credit conditions have improved modestly, while construction and multifamily lending remain selective. This cautious normalization indicates that lenders are regaining confidence without abandoning risk discipline—a balance that favors steady but controlled real estate investment and development activity.
Bank Lending Standards Summary
| Metric | Latest | 1M Ago | 6M Ago | 1Y Ago | Δ 1M | Δ 6M | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C&I Loans - Large/Mid Firms (net %) | 9.5 | 18.5 | 6.2 | 7.9 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ |
| C&I Loans - Small Firms (net %) | 8.2 | 15.9 | 11.1 | 8.2 | ▼ | ▼ | — |
| CRE - Construction (net %) | 9.7 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 23.8 | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ |
| CRE - Nonresidential (net %) | 11.5 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 20.6 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ |
| CRE - Multifamily (net %) | 4.8 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 22.2 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ |
| Credit Card Loans (net %) | 10.4 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 20.0 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ |
| Auto Loans (net %) | -3.8 | 1.9 | -3.8 | 0.0 | ▼ | — | ▼ |
| Other Consumer Loans (net %) | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 12.0 | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ |
Interpretation: Net % = (% banks tightening - % banks easing). Positive values indicate restrictive lending conditions.
NoteMetrics Described
C&I Loans – Large/Mid Firms (net %): This measures the net percentage of banks tightening or loosening credit standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and mid-sized firms. Lower values (closer to or below zero) indicate easier credit and a more supportive environment for business expansion, indirectly boosting demand for commercial space. Higher readings signal tightening standards and reduced credit availability, which can slow corporate investment and property absorption.
C&I Loans – Small Firms (net %): Similar to the above but focused on small business borrowers, this measure captures how willing banks are to lend to smaller enterprises. Lower percentages imply more accommodating credit conditions and support for local retail, service, and light industrial tenants—vital segments of most property markets. Rising values suggest growing caution and tighter underwriting, which can suppress leasing and small-scale development.
CRE – Construction (net %): This tracks banks’ lending standards for commercial real estate construction projects. Lower percentages indicate greater lending appetite, which typically accompanies expanding property supply and confidence in future demand. Higher readings mean banks are tightening terms, often in response to perceived risk or slower absorption, which can constrain new development pipelines.
CRE – Nonresidential (net %): This reflects lending conditions for existing income-producing properties such as office, retail, and industrial assets. A lower percentage signals easier refinancing and acquisition financing, supporting transaction activity and stable valuations. Higher readings denote credit tightening, often associated with market stress or declining collateral performance.
CRE – Multifamily (net %): This measures how banks are adjusting standards for apartment loans. A lower number suggests banks are comfortable lending to multifamily projects, usually due to strong rent fundamentals and demand stability. Higher percentages show tightening, often reflecting supply saturation or rising vacancy concerns, which can slow new construction and acquisition volume.
Credit Card Loans (net %): This shows whether banks are tightening standards for consumer credit cards. Lower readings imply consumer strength and a healthy financial system, indirectly supporting retail sales and housing demand. Higher values indicate increased risk aversion and consumer stress, which can ripple through to reduced retail and service-sector occupancy.
Auto Loans (net %): This metric tracks banks’ willingness to lend for vehicle purchases. Lower or negative values (indicating easier credit) suggest confidence in consumer credit quality and disposable income. Higher readings point to credit tightening and rising risk aversion, both of which can signal weakening consumer fundamentals that may affect retail real estate demand.
Other Consumer Loans (net %): This encompasses bank lending standards for personal loans outside of auto or credit cards. A lower net percentage reflects easier access to credit and stronger household liquidity, both supportive of spending and housing activity. Higher values indicate tightening standards, which may reduce consumer confidence and spending capacity, indirectly cooling real estate markets.
Commercial & Industrial Lending Standards
Commercial Real Estate Lending Standards
Consumer Lending Standards
Section 4: Economic Growth & Employment Trends
Employment Indicators and Economic Expansion
The labor market provides real-time signals about economic health. The unemployment rate remains the headline indicator, while job openings and initial claims offer higher-frequency leading indicators. Payroll growth combined with wage increases signals strong labor demand, though rapid wage growth can pressure inflation.
Current Status
Labor market conditions remain resilient despite signs of cooling. Job growth has slowed from earlier highs, but participation and wage gains continue to underpin consumer spending power. With unemployment still low by historical standards, the employment backdrop supports stable housing demand and tenant fundamentals even as the economy transitions toward slower but sustainable growth.
Labor Market Metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1M Ago | 6M Ago | 1Y Ago | Δ 1M | Δ 6M | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.30 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.20 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Monthly Payroll Change (thousands) | 22.00 | 79.00 | 102.00 | 71.00 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Labor Force Participation (%) | 62.30 | 62.20 | 62.40 | 62.70 | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Avg Hourly Earnings ($) | 36.53 | 36.43 | 35.90 | 35.23 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Job Openings (thousands) | 7227.00 | 7208.00 | 7480.00 | 7649.00 | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Initial Claims (thousands) | 218000.00 | 234000.00 | 225000.00 | 222000.00 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Real GDP Growth (% SAAR) | 3.80 | -0.60 | 1.90 | 3.60 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Industrial Production (Index) | 103.92 | 103.82 | 103.87 | 103.02 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
NoteMetrics Described
Unemployment Rate (%): The unemployment rate measures the share of the labor force actively seeking work but unable to find it. A lower rate reflects strong job creation and income stability—conditions that support housing demand, retail spending, and tenant expansion. Rising unemployment tends to weaken absorption and slow rent growth across property types.
Monthly Payroll Change (thousands): This tracks the net number of jobs added or lost each month. Higher job gains indicate expanding employment bases and rising household formation, both vital for sustaining demand in residential and commercial real estate. Declines or persistently low job creation often foreshadow softening property fundamentals.
Labor Force Participation (%): Labor force participation shows what portion of the working-age population is employed or seeking work. Higher participation rates suggest a broad and engaged workforce that underpins economic growth, household income, and real estate activity. Declines may reflect discouraged workers or demographic shifts that reduce long-term demand potential.
Average Hourly Earnings ($): This measure tracks wage levels across the economy. Higher earnings generally signal rising purchasing power and rental affordability, supporting both residential and commercial property performance. However, if wage growth accelerates too quickly, it can contribute to inflation and prompt interest rate hikes that weigh on valuations.
Job Openings (thousands): Job openings reflect employer demand for labor. A higher number indicates business expansion and confidence, which typically aligns with healthy leasing, construction, and investment trends. A sustained decline in openings often signals slowing economic activity that can pressure occupancy and pricing.
Initial Claims (thousands): This metric reports the number of new unemployment insurance claims filed weekly. Lower levels suggest stable employment and minimal layoffs, reinforcing market confidence and steady rental demand. Higher claims imply job losses and economic stress, which tend to reduce spending and occupancy rates.
Real GDP Growth (% SAAR): Real Gross Domestic Product growth captures the inflation-adjusted pace of economic output, shown as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Higher growth reflects robust demand for goods, services, and space—conditions that favor rising rents and property values. Negative or slowing growth indicates contractionary trends that usually precede softer real estate performance.
Industrial Production (Index): This index measures output from factories, mines, and utilities. Rising industrial production supports warehouse, manufacturing, and logistics property demand, while declines suggest weakening industrial activity. For investors, steady growth in this measure signals ongoing momentum in one of real estate’s key demand drivers..
Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Participation
Monthly Payroll Changes
Job Openings and Initial Claims
Real GDP Growth
Section 5: Consumer Demand and Trade Dynamics
Domestic Demand and External Flows
Consumer spending drives approximately 70% of U.S. GDP, making retail sales and personal consumption critical indicators. E-commerce has accelerated dramatically, particularly post-COVID, reshaping retail dynamics. The trade balance reflects both domestic demand strength and global competitiveness.
Current Trend
Consumer activity remains a key driver of economic momentum, with retail sales and personal spending posting steady gains. Real disposable income and inflation-adjusted consumption continue to expand, reflecting household stability and confidence. Although import volumes and trade deficits fluctuate, overall consumption patterns suggest durable domestic demand—an encouraging signal for retail, logistics, and residential real estate sectors.
Consumption Metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1M Ago | 6M Ago | 1Y Ago | Δ 1M | Δ 6M | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales ($ millions) | 732010.0 | 727414.0 | 711757.0 | 697157.0 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Retail Sales ex Auto ($ millions) | 592258.0 | 588346.0 | 577383.0 | 564837.0 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| E-commerce % of Retail | 16.3 | 16.1 | 16.2 | 16.1 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Personal Consumption ($ billions) | 21111.9 | 20982.7 | 20519.8 | 20001.3 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Real PCE ($ billions, 2017$) | 16587.4 | 16529.6 | 16297.0 | 16145.7 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Trade Balance ($ millions) | -78311.0 | -59086.0 | -128801.0 | -78639.0 | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Exports ($ millions) | 280464.0 | 279650.0 | 273946.0 | 271115.0 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Imports ($ millions) | 358775.0 | 338736.0 | 402746.0 | 349754.0 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Real Disposable Income ($ billions) | 18097.2 | 18077.3 | 17910.5 | 17752.9 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
NoteMetrics Described
Retail Sales ($ millions): Retail sales represent total spending at stores and online retailers. Higher sales indicate strong consumer demand, which supports retail leasing, warehouse distribution, and service-sector employment. A slowing or declining trend often signals weakening household confidence and can lead to store closures or reduced absorption in retail space.
Retail Sales ex Auto ($ millions): This measure excludes automobile sales, which can be volatile, to reveal the underlying strength of everyday consumer spending. Higher values show broad-based retail activity and a resilient consumer base, both of which underpin tenant stability and shopping center performance. Lower readings point to softer discretionary spending and potential headwinds for retail property owners.
E-commerce % of Retail: This ratio captures the share of total retail sales occurring online. A moderate increase reflects evolving consumer habits and steady digital integration into retail, supporting industrial and logistics real estate through fulfillment demand. However, sharp or sustained rises may pressure brick-and-mortar retail occupancy if not offset by experiential or service-based tenants.
Personal Consumption ($ billions): Personal consumption measures total household spending on goods and services—the largest component of U.S. GDP. Higher consumption levels signify economic expansion and rising tenant and investor confidence across property sectors. Declines suggest constrained household budgets that can dampen retail and residential demand.
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) ($ billions, 2017$): Real PCE adjusts consumption for inflation, reflecting true growth in goods and services purchased. Higher real PCE is a sign of genuine demand strength and broad purchasing power, both of which are favorable for real estate markets. Weak or negative real growth suggests inflation is eroding real incomes and spending capacity.
Trade Balance ($ millions): The trade balance measures the difference between exports and imports; negative values represent a deficit. A smaller deficit (less negative) or improving balance is generally healthier, reflecting stronger domestic production and export demand. Persistent or widening deficits can weigh on manufacturing and industrial property sectors that depend on export activity.
Exports ($ millions): Exports measure the value of goods and services sold abroad. Higher exports indicate competitive domestic industries and sustained industrial demand, which supports warehouse, port, and logistics properties. Falling export volumes can reflect global demand weakness that reduces manufacturing output and property utilization.
Imports ($ millions): Imports represent goods and services purchased from abroad. Moderate increases are consistent with healthy consumer and business demand, but excessive import growth relative to exports can widen trade deficits. For real estate, rising imports often boost demand for logistics and distribution space, especially near major ports and transportation hubs.
Real Disposable Income ($ billions): This metric reflects household income after taxes, adjusted for inflation. Higher real disposable income supports spending on housing, retail goods, and services, providing the foundation for real estate demand. Declines or stagnation erode purchasing power and can lead to affordability challenges in both residential and commercial markets.
Retail Sales Trends
E-Commerce Penetration
Real Retail Sales vs Real Consumer Spending (Monthly % Change)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Trade Balance
Section 6: Construction Costs and Building Activity
Development Costs and Construction Trends
Construction cost inflation directly impacts real estate development feasibility and replacement costs. Lumber prices exhibit extreme volatility, while steel and concrete provide more stable baselines. Housing starts and building permits serve as leading indicators for residential construction activity, with permits typically leading starts by 1-2 months.
Current Trend
Construction indicators reveal a market adjusting to cost pressures and tighter financing. Material prices remain elevated, yet housing starts and permit volumes have softened, suggesting a more disciplined supply pipeline. While total spending has eased, stable residential and infrastructure activity point to a sector in rebalancing rather than retreat—laying groundwork for healthier long-term fundamentals as supply aligns with demand.
Construction Metrics
| Metric | Latest | 1M Ago | 6M Ago | 1Y Ago | Δ 1M | Δ 6M | Δ 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPI Construction Materials (Index) | 341.69 | 338.94 | 329.20 | 324.65 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| PPI Lumber (Index) | 265.70 | 264.26 | 269.40 | 251.60 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| PPI Steel Mill Products (Index) | 311.33 | 306.79 | 268.86 | 275.28 | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| PPI Ready-Mix Concrete (Index) | 386.42 | 385.87 | 389.52 | 386.39 | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ |
| Housing Starts (thousands, SAAR) | 1307.00 | 1429.00 | 1490.00 | 1391.00 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Building Permits (thousands, SAAR) | 1330.00 | 1362.00 | 1454.00 | 1476.00 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Total Construction Spending ($ millions) | 2139110.00 | 2140546.00 | 2169595.00 | 2200746.00 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Residential Construction ($ millions) | 898686.00 | 897878.00 | 923551.00 | 946982.00 | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Nonresidential Construction ($ millions) | 1240425.00 | 1242668.00 | 1246043.00 | 1253764.00 | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
NoteMetrics Described
PPI Construction Materials (Index): The Producer Price Index for construction materials tracks overall input costs for builders, including lumber, steel, and concrete. Lower readings are generally healthier, as they indicate stable or declining material prices that help control project costs and support profitability. Rapid increases, by contrast, can stall development pipelines and pressure margins.
PPI Lumber (Index): This index measures wholesale prices for lumber, a key material in residential and light commercial construction. Moderate or declining values benefit builders by reducing framing and finishing costs. Sharp price spikes can delay projects and contribute to housing affordability challenges, especially in single-family markets.
PPI Steel Mill Products (Index): The steel mill products index reflects the cost of steel used in structural framing, industrial buildings, and infrastructure. Lower prices support nonresidential and industrial construction by improving cost feasibility. Higher values, while sometimes signaling strong demand, often lead to project repricing or delays when budgets tighten.
PPI Ready-Mix Concrete (Index): This index tracks prices for ready-mix concrete, a fundamental input for all major building types. Stable or modestly rising prices are manageable and consistent with healthy demand. However, sustained high increases can erode project returns and slow new development, particularly for multifamily and infrastructure projects.
Housing Starts (thousands, SAAR): Housing starts represent the number of new residential units that have begun construction, shown at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Higher levels indicate builder confidence, job creation in construction trades, and strong housing demand. Declines often point to tightening credit, rising costs, or weakening affordability—conditions that can constrain market supply.
Building Permits (thousands, SAAR): Building permits measure approvals for new residential construction and serve as a leading indicator of future housing activity. Higher numbers signal optimism among builders and forthcoming supply, which helps balance markets. Falling permit activity suggests developer caution or financing challenges that may limit future inventory.
Total Construction Spending ($ millions): This metric captures all public and private construction outlays nationwide. Rising spending reflects economic expansion, employment gains, and investment in both real estate and infrastructure. Persistent declines, however, can indicate slowing demand, cost inflation, or delayed projects across sectors.
Residential Construction ($ millions): Residential spending tracks total outlays on single-family and multifamily housing. Higher spending supports job creation, material demand, and broader economic growth. Declines signal reduced builder activity or affordability pressures, which may lead to housing shortages and upward pressure on prices over time.
Nonresidential Construction ($ millions): This measure includes commercial, industrial, institutional, and infrastructure construction. Higher values indicate corporate expansion, public investment, and business confidence—conditions that strengthen property fundamentals. Lower spending reflects caution among developers and public agencies, often tied to economic or credit constraints.
Construction Material Price Indices
Housing Starts and Building Permits
Construction Spending by Type
Section 7: Metro Growth: People and Productivity
=============================================================
SECTION 7: METRO GROWTH MATRIX - SHUTDOWN-AWARE VERSION
Handles government shutdown gracefully with fallback data
=============================================================
The Growth Map: People, Productivity, and Place
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) show varying trajectories of economic and demographic growth. This scatter plot reveals which metros are experiencing balanced growth (both population and GDP increasing), productivity gains (GDP growing faster than population), or demographic pressure (population growing faster than economic output).
Important Note on Data Availability: Due to the ongoing federal government shutdown (began October 1, 2025), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has suspended operations and is not releasing new data. The visualization below uses the most recent available data from before the shutdown. Once the government reopens, this report will automatically update with current statistics.
Data limitations: MSA GDP data from BEA typically has a 1-2 year lag. Additionally, as of BEA’s 2025 annual update released in September 2025, metropolitan-level GDP statistics were discontinued in favor of county-level data.
Interpretation Quadrants
- Upper Right (High Pop, High GDP): Strong balanced growth metros
- Upper Left (Low Pop, High GDP): Productivity-driven growth, potential housing constraints
- Lower Right (High Pop, Low GDP): Demographic pressure, economic challenges
- Lower Left (Low/Negative Both): Declining metros, potential restructuring
| Metropolitan Area | Pop Growth (%) | GDP Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ | 2.1 | 4.8 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 1.8 | 4.5 |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA | 1.3 | 4.2 |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 1.4 | 4.1 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 1.2 | 3.8 |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 1.0 | 3.7 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad, CA | 0.8 | 3.3 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 0.9 | 3.2 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | 0.5 | 3.1 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA | 0.2 | 2.9 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 0.4 | 2.7 |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | 0.1 | 1.9 |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | -0.2 | 1.8 |
| St. Louis, MO-IL | 0.2 | 1.6 |
| Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | -0.1 | 1.5 |
Report Summary
This comprehensive macro monitor tracks 7 key dimensions of economic health using exclusively free public data sources. All data is sourced from federal agencies (FRED, BLS, Census Bureau, BEA) and updated automatically when the report is regenerated.
Data Sources Summary
Primary API: FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) - Requires free API key - Sections 1-6: All data available via FRED API - Section 7: Requires BEA API (free) for MSA GDP data
Data Frequencies: - Daily: Treasury rates, corporate spreads, VIX - Weekly: Initial unemployment claims - Monthly: Employment, retail sales, industrial production, construction - Quarterly: SLOOS lending standards, GDP, e-commerce % - Annual: MSA population and GDP data
To Run This Report
Install R and Quarto (https://quarto.org)
Get API Keys (all free):
# Create .Renviron file in your project directory
FRED_API_KEY=your_fred_api_key_here
BEA_API_KEY=your_bea_api_key_here # For Section 7 only- Install Required Packages:
install.packages(c("tidyverse", "fredr", "lubridate", "scales",
"knitr", "kableExtra", "plotly", "httr",
"jsonlite", "zoo", "ggrepel"))- Render the Report:
quarto render macro_monitor.qmdCustomization Options
Adjust lookback periods: Modify date filters in chart creation Add more MSAs: Expand Section 7 to include all 393 MSAs Change chart themes: Modify ggplot2 theme settings Export data tables: Add CSV export functionality Automate scheduling: Use GitHub Actions or cron jobs for daily/weekly updates
Report generated: 2025-10-24 07:46:48.658666 Data cached in: data_cache/ directory (24-hour default cache)