Split by hazard

Hazard type: Wolbachia

Question 1


What do you believe is the probability that individuals of black-veined whites from distinct meta-populations would be reproductively incompatible when ad-mixing due to infection from different strains of Wolbachia?



Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
HJ 20 30 80 80
HK 0 5 20 70
NR 20 50 80 85
RI 2 28 70 65
TI 0 10 100 50
TQ 20 45 70 66
TW 0 10 100 50
VB 0 5 40 95
VC 0.10 1 5 80
Comments
1
  • TI: I don’t know anything about Wolbachia except that it affected Chequered Skipper reintroduction in England so these answers are just guesses.
  • TQ: - Wolbachia prevalence in Lepidoptera 20-80% - Some evidence from Eastern Europe to suggest lower end of range in BVW - Anecdotal report of Wolbachia-related reproductive incompatibility in chequered skipper - Primarily vertically transmitted but also horizontal transmission, hence slightly higher probability of higher Wolbachia diversity (and therefore probability of incompatability) if adult individuals translocated due to longer lifespan for exposure to occur prior to translocation
  • VB: Given the data available for BVW show low, transient infection in the species, I think there is a very low-low probability that BVWs from different meta-populations will be reproductively incompatible due to Wolbachia infection


Hazard type: Viruses

Question 2


What do you believe is the probability that black-veined whites brought to England would introduce a viral pathogen novel to the country? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 1 20 40 54
HK 0 1 6 70
NR 10 15 80 56
RI 0.10 1.50 12 100
TI 0 0 3 95
TQ 5 12 20 55
TW 0 10 20 50
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0.01 0.10 3 70
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 1 15 30 69
HK 0 1 5 70
NR 10 15 70 60
RI 0.10 1.50 12 100
TI 0 0 5 96
TQ 2 8 15 55
TW 0 10 20 50
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 0.01 0.10 2 80
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 1 25 40 71
HK 0 3 10 70
NR 20 25 90 60
RI 0.10 2.50 18 70
TI 0 0 2 95
TQ 25 50 70 56
TW 0 5 20 60
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0.05 0.50 5 80
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: It is highly likely that any viruses from France will already be in UK having been transferred here via Large White immigration.
  • TW: As closely related species migrate between the source country and England, and these butterflies are unlikely to have been exposed to viruses also novel to the source country (e.g. from exotic lepidoptera in captive collections), the likelihood of a novel virus introduction is very low
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults
  • TI: It is very likely that any viruses will already be in UK via immigration from Large White, but the probability of new viruses is higher from Spain than France due to the distance.
  • TW: Although biosecurity by Ambios was syb-optimal, I don’t believe that this would have significantly changed the level of risk of introduction of a novel virus
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TI: It is very likely that any viruses from Spain will already be here via immigration from Large Whites. Also the pathways of transferring viruses via eggs is less than via adults.
  • TQ: - Connectivity between adult populations of Pieridae and other lepidoptera so zero probability of source hazards as no barriers to transmission between UK and mainland EU populations - Some viruses (known and unknown) likely to cause infection in eggs/larvae and NOT adults - For pathogens of eggs/larvae there ARE barriers to transmission as negligible probability of eggs/larvae crossing channel etc. - Therefore the only pathway which poses a potential for source hazards is the translocation of eggs/larvae
  • TW: I think the hazard summary provided suggests an overstated risk of viral infection in eggs; there is likely to be over-reporting bias and it is hard to see how an egg could be exposed to a virus to the exclusion of other life stages. I suspect the risks are actually likely to be lower with eggs


Question 3


What do you believe is the probability that a captive population of black-veined whites will be exposed to a viral hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 30 33 90 62
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 0 20 80 79
RI 10 58 100 80
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 10 50 80 52
TW 0 20 50 75
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 1 2 15 80
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 30 35 90 75
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 15 25 75 90
RI 10 50 100 80
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 5 40 70 56
TW 0 15 40 70
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 1 5 25 75
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 30 40 90 63
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 25 25 75 85
RI 5 65 100 80
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 15 50 80 56
TW 0 15 40 75
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 2 8 30 71
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: Irrespective of the method that BVW are bought to UK, they likelihood of them being exposed to viruses here is very high because viruses are such a prevalent part of any natural system.
  • TW: Disease-causing viruses are known to exist in England and it will be impossible to prevent exposure even with good biosecurity as they could be transmitted on plant material or via insect vectors.
  • VC: Ambios lower risk because disease has not emerged during life cycle so far
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults
  • TI: Irrespective of the method that BVW are bought to UK, they likelihood of them being exposed to viruses here is very high because viruses are such a prevalent part of any natural system.
  • TW: better biosecurity may reduce this risk marginally but the main transmission routes will remain even with good biosecurity
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TI: Irrespective of the method that BVW are bought to UK, they likelihood of them being exposed to viruses here is very high because viruses are such a prevalent part of any natural system.
  • TW: Once hatched and pupated, the exposure risk for this route should be the same as for route 2


Question 4


Given that a captive population of black-veined whites encounters a viral hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 1 30 80 61
HK 10 40 90 95
NR 15 60 85 80
RI 2 44 95 80
TI 50 95 100 50
TQ 0 25 100 100
TW 0 30 75 50
VB 0 100 100 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 1 30 80 61
HK 3 10 90 95
NR 15 60 85 81
RI 2 40 90 75
TI 50 95 100 50
TQ 0 25 100 100
TW 0 30 75 50
VB 0 60 100 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 1 35 80 61
HK 3 10 90 95
NR 15 60 85 82
RI 15 48 98 80
TI 50 95 100 50
TQ 0 75 100 100
TW 0 30 75 50
VB 0 60 100 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: If a virus gets into a captive population then it can eb difficult to control and many could die. I think that viruses can spread quickly before showing any outward signs.
  • TW: The outcome is expected to be the same under management at both Ambios and other pathways
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TQ: - Eggs/larvae/adults susceptible to infection/disease associated with greater numbers of viral pathogens than adult lifestage alone


Question 5


What do you believe is the probability that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring will encounter a viral hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.


Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 20 70 90 69
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 15 25 100 80
RI 20 70 100 80
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 0 25 50 55
TW 0 25 40 50
VB 0 1 2 100
VC 5 8 30 81
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 20 50 90 60
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 15 25 100 80
RI 20 70 100 80
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 0 25 50 55
TW 0 25 40 50
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 5 8 30 81
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 20 60 90 61
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 15 25 100 80
RI 20 70 100 80
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 0 25 50 55
TW 0 25 40 50
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 5 8 30 81
Comments
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TQ: Each pathway involves release of captive-bred adult individuals so no conceivable reason for variation in pathogen exposure probability at the destination
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: The likelihood of exposure is higher for free-living BVW than captive as they will be indirectly exposed to pathogens carried by sympatric lepidoptera


Question 6


Given that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring encounters a viral hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 20 25 60 62
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 10 25 65 75
RI 10 30 85 70
TI 5 7 10 50
TQ 0 25 100 100
TW 0 20 75 70
VB 0 30 60 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 20 25 60 62
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 10 25 65 73
RI 10 30 85 70
TI 5 7 10 50
TQ 0 25 100 100
TW 0 20 75 70
VB 0 30 60 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 20 25 60 62
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 15 50 85 70
RI 10 30 85 70
TI 5 7 10 50
TQ 0 25 100 100
TW 0 20 75 70
VB 0 30 60 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TQ: 25 most likely as large number of viruses of lepidoptera exhibit horizontal transmission & most likely outcome is single enclosure experiencing outbreak with high level of mortality. Huge amount of uncertainty due to poor understanding of pathogenicity/virulence/transmission/diversity of viral pathogens of lepidoptera.
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: Released BVW are likely to be less stressed than captive butterflies and so experience milder disease if infected


Hazard type: Bacteria

Question 7


What do you believe is the probability that black-veined whites brought to England would introduce a bacterial pathogen novel to the country? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 1 4 40 65
HK 0 5 10 70
NR 10 15 75 70
RI 0.01 0.25 10 100
TI 0 2 5 90
TQ 0 5 10 55
TW 0 5 20 60
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0.01 0.10 3 70
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 1 3 20 71
HK 0 3 8 70
NR 5 15 75 83
RI 0.01 0.25 10 100
TI 0 2 5 87
TQ 0 3 5 56
TW 0 5 20 60
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 0.01 0.10 3 70
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 1 6 40 71
HK 0 3 8 70
NR 15 20 75 82
RI 0.01 1 8 100
TI 0 2 5 89
TQ 5 20 30 53
TW 0 5 10 71
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0.01 0.10 3 70
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • HK: Reasonably chance of introducing a novel strain of Wolbachia
  • TW: The risks of a novel bacteria being introduced are likely to be low because of the migration of closely related species between source sites and England. These risks are likely to be lower for eggs than adult butterflies because they are less likely to have been exposed


Question 8


What do you believe is the probability that a captive population of black-veined whites will be exposed to a bacterial hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 50 70 90 65
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 15 20 75 85
RI 10 65 100 100
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 5 30 50 59
TW 0 15 30 60
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 50 60 90 69
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 15 35 75 83
RI 10 60 100 80
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 5 20 30 60
TW 0 15 30 60
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 50 75 90 71
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 15 25 85 85
RI 10 75 100 100
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 5 35 60 55
TW 0 15 30 76
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TW: No change in risk once in captivity vs adult import routes


Question 9


Given that a captive population of black-veined whites encounters a bacterial hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 1 15 80 71
HK 10 40 90 95
NR 15 25 65 83
RI 5 35 80 80
TI 50 90 100 50
TQ 0 5 20 50
TW 0 10 25 100
VB 0 5 20 85
VC 1 2 50 60
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 1 10 80 71
HK 5 10 90 95
NR 15 25 65 82
RI 5 30 80 80
TI 50 90 100 50
TQ 0 5 20 50
TW 0 10 25 100
VB 0 5 20 85
VC 1 2 50 60
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 1 20 80 66
HK 5 10 90 95
NR 15 50 85 80
RI 8 44 85 80
TI 50 90 100 50
TQ 0 20 50 51
TW 0 10 25 100
VB 0 5 20 85
VC 1 2 50 60
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: As with viruses I think that bacterial infections could spread amongst a captive population before there are any outward signs.
  • TW: I am not aware of reported mass mortalities in lepidoptera caused by bacterial infection so the risk of severe consequence if infected is likely to be low. I would expect this risk be the same for all 3 routes


Question 10


What do you believe is the probability that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring will encounter a bacterial hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.


Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 20 50 100 66
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 10 20 75 81
RI 25 75 100 100
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 0 10 20 55
TW 0 10 20 70
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 5 8 30 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 20 50 100 66
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 10 20 75 81
RI 25 75 100 100
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 0 10 20 55
TW 0 10 20 70
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 5 8 30 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 20 50 100 66
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 10 20 75 81
RI 25 75 100 100
TI 0 99 100 50
TQ 0 10 20 55
TW 0 10 20 70
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 5 8 30 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: The likelihood of exposure increases after release because BVW will have direct and indirect contact with other lepidoptera


Question 11


Given that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring encounters a bacterial hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 20 40 70 61
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 10 25 85 83
RI 5 25 80 100
TI 0 7 20 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 0 10 15 75
VB 0 10 20 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 20 40 70 61
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 10 25 85 83
RI 5 25 80 100
TI 0 7 20 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 0 10 15 75
VB 0 10 20 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 20 40 70 61
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 10 25 85 83
RI 5 25 80 100
TI 0 7 20 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 0 10 15 75
VB 0 10 20 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: Mortality levels are likely to be lower than for captive BVW because of reduced stress (and associated immunosuppression)


Hazard type: Fungi

Question 12


What do you believe is the probability that black-veined whites brought to England would introduce a fungal pathogen novel to the country? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 0 5 20 68
HK 0 1 6 70
NR 5 15 60 83
RI 1.00e-03 0.10 5 100
TI 0 0 5 87
TQ 0 2 5 51
TW 0 15 40 71
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0.01 0.10 3 70
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 0 4 20 72
HK 0 1 5 70
NR 5 15 60 85
RI 1.00e-03 0.10 5 100
TI 0 0 3 87
TQ 0 1 3 51
TW 0 15 40 71
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 0.01 0.10 3 70
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 0 10 20 73
HK 0 1 5 70
NR 10 20 60 80
RI 1.00e-03 0.50 5 100
TI 0 0 4 81
TQ 5 10 15 50
TW 0 5 15 56
VB 0 0.50 1 85
VC 0.01 0.10 3 70
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: As fungal infections of lepidoptera appear to be common compared to other parasites, this risk is likely to be higher than for e.g. viruses. However, fungi appear to more usually infect larval stages so importing adult butterflies is likely to carry only a small additional risk (compared to viruses, bacteria etc.) This risk would be the same for both Ambios and KW pathways
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TW: As far as I am aware, eggs are not commonly infected with fungi


Question 13


What do you believe is the probability that a captive population of black-veined whites will be exposed to a fungal hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 40 55 90 89
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 15 45 85 82
RI 10 78 100 100
TI 0 25 100 50
TQ 50 70 90 65
TW 20 40 80 60
VB 0 2 5 85
VC 0.10 1 10 81
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 40 45 90 68
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 15 45 85 81
RI 10 75 100 80
TI 0 25 100 50
TQ 50 70 90 65
TW 20 45 80 60
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 0.10 1 10 81
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 50 70 100 71
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 15 45 85 83
RI 5 80 100 100
TI 0 25 100 50
TQ 55 75 95 60
TW 20 45 80 60
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 0.10 1 10 81
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: The risk via Ambios may be slightly lower because densities in the cage are lower than for KW


Question 14


Given that a captive population of black-veined whites encounters a fungal hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 2 30 80 66
HK 10 40 90 95
NR 15 45 85 82
RI 2 22 95 80
TI 0 5 10 65
TQ 0 25 100 51
TW 5 20 50 60
VB 0 20 40 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 2 25 80 67
HK 5 10 90 95
NR 15 65 85 82
RI 2 20 95 100
TI 0 5 10 62
TQ 0 25 100 51
TW 5 20 50 60
VB 0 20 40 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 2 75 100 82
HK 5 10 90 95
NR 15 45 85 82
RI 2 30 95 80
TI 0 5 10 62
TQ 0 25 100 51
TW 5 20 50 60
VB 0 20 40 85
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: I think that fungi will often be noticed on captive individuals before it gets to the stage where it is releasing a lot of spores and so the vector is likely to be removed before it spreads through too much of the population.


Question 15


What do you believe is the probability that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring will encounter a fungal hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.


Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) RI 0 0 0 100
HJ 1 80 100 70
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 5 25 75 77
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 70 85 100 75
TW 15 30 60 61
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 2 4 10 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 1 80 100 70
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 5 25 75 77
RI 30 90 100 80
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 70 85 100 75
TW 15 30 60 61
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 2 4 10 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs RI 0 0 0 100
HJ 1 80 100 70
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 5 25 75 77
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 70 85 100 75
TW 15 30 60 61
VB 0 1 2 85
VC 2 4 10 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: I’m just guessing here.
  • TW: Fungi are ubiquitous but the likelihood of exposure of larvae in the wild may be lower because there will be more environmental variation


Question 16


Given that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring encounters a fungal hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 1 40 50 63
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 15 50 85 79
RI 2 20 70 80
TI 0 10 25 50
TQ 0 0 10 55
TW 5 15 40 56
VB 0 10 50 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 1 40 50 63
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 15 50 85 79
RI 2 20 70 80
TI 0 10 25 50
TQ 0 0 10 55
TW 5 15 40 56
VB 0 10 50 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 1 40 50 63
HK 5 10 50 95
NR 15 50 85 79
RI 2 20 70 80
TI 0 10 25 50
TQ 0 0 10 55
TW 5 15 40 56
VB 0 10 50 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: Released BVW may be less stressed and therefore more resistant to severe disease associated with infection


Hazard type: Nematode

Question 17


What do you believe is the probability that black-veined whites brought to England would introduce a nematodal pathogen novel to the country? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) VB 0 0 0 100
HJ 1 11 40 69
HK 0 1 6 60
NR 0 5 50 83
RI 1.00e-03 0.10 5 80
TI 0 2 10 87
TQ 0 0 5 51
TW 0 5 10 60
VC 0 0 1.00e-07 90
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults VB 0 0 0 100
HJ 1 10 20 83
HK 0 1 5 60
NR 0 5 50 83
RI 1.00e-03 0.10 5 80
TI 0 2 10 90
TQ 0 0 3 51
TW 0 5 10 60
VC 0 0 1.00e-07 90
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs VB 0 0 0 100
HJ 1 30 70 73
HK 0 1 5 60
NR 0 15 25 86
RI 0.01 0.50 5 80
TI 0 2 10 90
TQ 0 10 40 52
TW 0 0 10 65
VC 0 0 1.00e-07 90
Comments
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TQ: Low probability of bringing across known nematode but likely large number of unknown nematodes able to infect BVW which are considered here. Higher risk of bringing over novel nematode in eggs as nematodes able to infect adults likely able to move across channel in other adult Pieridae without human intervention
  • TW: Nematodes are unlikely to infect eggs
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: Infected larvae are likely to have died before pupation
  • VB: Entomopathogenic nematodes are soil-dwelling roundworms. The infective stages of such nematodes are found in the soil and target the butterflies’ larvae stage, which they penetrate causing morbidity and mortality. Many species of these nematodes occur across Europe, including the UK. For the nematodes to be introduced to the UK, the infective stages should be transported via attaching on wings/eggs surface and I think this is highly unlikely. Also, entomopathogenic nematodes are already present in the UK.


Question 18


What do you believe is the probability that a captive population of black-veined whites will be exposed to a nematodal hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 50 60 80 75
HK 5 10 80 60
NR 0 15 45 84
RI 0 15 50 65
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 0 5 20 51
TW 10 20 30 50
VB 0 1 2 90
VC 0.01 0.10 5 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 50 60 80 79
HK 5 10 80 60
NR 0 15 45 86
RI 0 15 50 65
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 0 6 21 51
TW 10 20 30 50
VB 0 1 2 90
VC 0.01 0.10 5 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 50 70 90 79
HK 5 10 80 60
NR 0 15 25 82
RI 0 15 50 65
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 0 5 20 60
TW 10 20 30 50
VB 0 1 2 90
VC 0.01 0.10 5 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: I do not know what the exposure route is but assume nematodes are transmitted by vectors eg other insects which could cross the cage netting to reach the captive BVW


Question 19


Given that a captive population of black-veined whites encounters a nematodal hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 5 25 50 68
HK 10 40 90 60
NR 0 25 45 82
RI 2 20 80 65
TI 0 10 100 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 50 75 100 50
VB 0 10 20 80
VC 5 50 100 100
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 5 20 50 69
HK 5 10 90 60
NR 0 25 45 82
RI 2 20 80 65
TI 0 10 100 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 50 75 100 50
VB 0 10 20 80
VC 5 50 100 100
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 5 40 60 78
HK 5 10 90 60
NR 0 25 45 86
RI 2 30 85 65
TI 0 10 100 50
TQ 0 0 100 100
TW 50 75 100 50
VB 0 10 20 80
VC 5 50 100 100
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: This is simply a guess
  • TW: Mortality rates following infection appear to be high


Question 20


What do you believe is the probability that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring will encounter a nematodal hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.


Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 50 80 90 81
HK 5 10 80 60
NR 15 15 60 83
RI 10 70 90 75
TI 0 10 100 50
TQ 30 65 100 60
TW 10 20 30 50
VB 0 2 5 90
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 50 80 90 81
HK 5 10 80 60
NR 15 15 60 83
RI 10 70 90 75
TI 0 10 100 50
TQ 30 65 100 60
TW 10 20 30 50
VB 0 2 5 90
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 50 80 90 81
HK 5 10 80 60
NR 15 15 60 83
RI 10 70 90 75
TI 0 10 100 50
TQ 30 65 100 60
TW 10 20 30 50
VB 0 2 5 90
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: I know nothing of nematode hazards so this is simply a guess.
  • TW: The exposure risk is likely to be the same as for captive BVW


Question 21


Given that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring encounters a nematodal hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 5 20 40 60
HK 5 10 50 60
NR 5 25 45 100
RI 5 50 95 70
TI 0 5 100 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 50 75 100 50
VB 0 10 20 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 5 20 40 60
HK 5 10 50 60
NR 5 25 45 100
RI 5 50 95 70
TI 0 5 100 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 50 75 100 50
VB 0 10 20 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 5 20 40 60
HK 5 10 50 60
NR 5 25 45 100
RI 5 50 95 70
TI 0 5 100 50
TQ 0 5 100 100
TW 50 75 100 50
VB 0 10 20 80
VC 0 50 100 50
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TI: This is simply a guess.
  • TW: Should be the same as for captive BVW


Hazard type: Parasitoid wasps and flies

Question 22


What do you believe is the probability that black-veined whites brought to England would introduce a parasitoid hazard novel to the country? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) VB 0 0 0 100
VC 0 0 0 89
HJ 1 5 30 62
HK 0 0 1 95
NR 30 50 80 90
RI 0 1 5 60
TI 0 0 2 92
TQ 0 0 2 75
TW 0 5 10 60
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults VB 0 0 0 100
HJ 1 3 20 77
HK 0 0 1 95
NR 20 75 85 100
RI 0 1 5 60
TI 0 0 2 91
TQ 0 0 1 76
TW 0 5 10 60
VC 0 1.00e-05 1.00e-04 90
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 1 10 40 79
HK 0 3 10 95
NR 30 85 100 90
RI 0 5 10 60
TI 0 0 2 92
TQ 30 70 100 65
TW 0 5 10 65
VB 0 2 5 90
VC 0 1.00e-04 1.00e-03 90
Comments
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TQ: No realistic route of introducing novel parasitoid wasp if adults translocated (tiny possibility that “stowaway” wasp could be cointroduced but negligible given capture protocol, would be hard to put wasp in envelope by accident). Eggs can be parasitised so could harbour novel parasitoid at time of transport
  • TW: If moved before hatching to larvae and eggs have been laid into trichogrammid-proof bags, this risk should be no/marginally higher than for pathways 1 and 2
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: It is unlikely given migration pathways of closely related species that this risk is very low
  • VC: Adults transferred, and only parasitoids in culture have been native Cotesia glomerata


Question 23


What do you believe is the probability that a captive population of black-veined whites will be exposed to a parasitoid hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) VC 100 100 100 100
HJ 50 80 100 90
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 25 65 85 77
RI 10 25 85 75
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 20 35 100 75
TW 40 50 75 60
VB 0 1.50 3 90
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 40 60 80 90
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 25 75 85 79
RI 10 20 80 75
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 20 35 100 75
TW 30 40 65 100
VB 0 1.50 3 90
VC 50 75 100 80
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 70 80 100 90
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 25 75 85 76
RI 10 20 80 75
TI 0 50 100 50
TQ 30 40 100 75
TW 30 40 65 61
VB 0 1.50 3 90
VC 50 75 100 80
Comments
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs
  • TQ: Slightly higher risk if eggs translocated as parasitoid wasps hatching from translocated eggs may locally increase density of parasitoid wasps/flies
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: Risks will be slightly higher than for pathway 2 because of the use of cruciferous nectar plants
  • VC: Ambios larvae already parasitised


Question 24


Given that a captive population of black-veined whites encounters a parasitoid hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 40 45 60 64
HK 20 40 80 95
NR 25 75 95 83
RI 20 70 95 75
TI 0 20 50 50
TQ 10 30 60 66
TW 40 50 100 50
VB 10 40 100 80
VC 20 60 90 100
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 30 30 60 77
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 25 75 95 79
RI 20 70 95 75
TI 0 20 50 50
TQ 10 30 60 100
TW 40 50 100 50
VB 10 40 100 80
VC 1 30 75 75
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 80 80 100 80
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 25 75 95 84
RI 20 70 95 65
TI 0 20 50 50
TQ 20 40 80 65
TW 40 50 100 50
VB 10 40 100 80
VC 1 30 75 75
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • VC: Treating these as what % of the captive population expected to die from parasitoids IF one or more larvae in the entire captive population is parasitised. Ambios population higher because already known to have parasitoids


Question 25


What do you believe is the probability that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring will encounter a parasitoid hazard that could result in diseased individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.


Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 80 90 100 100
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 25 50 95 81
RI 10 40 80 70
TI 0 10 20 57
TQ 30 70 100 80
TW 50 60 80 56
VB 0 5 10 80
VC 90 98 100 79
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 80 90 100 100
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 25 50 95 80
RI 10 40 80 70
TI 0 10 20 57
TQ 30 70 100 80
TW 50 60 80 56
VB 0 5 10 80
VC 90 98 100 80
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 80 90 100 100
HK 80 95 100 95
NR 25 50 95 81
RI 10 40 80 70
TI 0 10 20 57
TQ 30 70 100 81
TW 50 60 80 56
VB 0 5 10 80
VC 90 98 100 80
Comments
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios)
  • TW: Risks are likely to be higher for released BVW because of the ubiquity of cruciferous nectar plants and sympatric hosts


Question 26


Given that a released cohort of black-veined whites and their offspring encounters a parasitoid hazard that could result in diseased individuals, how many individuals are expected to die from that hazard, out of 100 individuals? Please answer for each of the specified translocation pathways.



Alternative Expert Minimum Plausible Most Likely Maximum Plausible Confidence
Pathway 1 (Ambios): Adults (Ambios) HJ 10 40 90 58
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 25 75 95 82
RI 10 50 80 65
TI 0 20 50 58
TQ 50 70 100 69
TW 40 50 100 50
VB 10 20 50 80
VC 1 5 40 80
Pathway 2 (Adults): Adults HJ 10 40 90 58
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 25 75 95 84
RI 10 50 80 65
TI 0 20 50 58
TQ 50 70 100 69
TW 40 50 100 50
VB 10 20 50 80
VC 1 5 40 81
Pathway 3 (Eggs): Eggs HJ 10 40 90 58
HK 20 30 80 95
NR 25 75 95 83
RI 10 50 80 65
TI 0 20 50 58
TQ 50 70 100 70
TW 40 50 100 50
VB 10 20 50 80
VC 1 5 40 80
Comments


Across hazards

Probability of novel pathogen

Probability of exposure in captivity

Mortality rate in captivity

Probability of exposure in wild

Mortality rate in wild