MATH 342: STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL METHODS

1 INTRODUCTION

Statistical quality control are the methods that are used to insure delivery of quality services and products. Once a production process is in operation, its important to monitor it constantly to ensure that it function the way it was designed. Statistica1 quality control (SQC) is the term used to describe the set of statistical tools used by quality professionals. Statistical quality control can be divided into three broad categories:

1.1 Descriptive statistics

Used to describe quality characteristics and relationships. This includes statistics such as the mean,standard,range and measures of distribution of data.

1.2 Statistical process control

Involves inspecting a random sample of the output from a process and deciding whether the process is producing products with characteristics that fall within a predetermined range.

1.3 Acceptance sampling

This is a process of randomly inspecting a sample of goods and deciding whether to accept or reject entire lot based on the results.

All three of these statistical quality control categories are helpful in measuring and evaluating the quality of products or services. However, statistical process control (SPC) tools are used most frequently because they identify quality problems during the production process. For this reason, we will devote most of the chapter to this category of tools. The quality control tools we will be learning about do not only measure the value of a quality characteristic. They also help us identify a change or variation in some quality characteristic of the product or process. We will first see what types of variation we can observe when measuring quality. Then we will be able to identify specific tools used for measuring this variation.

1.4 Two general approaches to the management of quality

1.4.1 100% Inpection Approach

After the production of the product, the units are inspected to determine whether it conforms with the specifications if it does not, it s either scrapped or repaired. this approach has several drawbacks. one of them is that it is costly to produce defective items regardless of whether they are later scrapped or repaired.100 percent is not 100 percent effective.mass inspection its action on the product,and not the process. therefore it detects but does not present them.in recent years this approach has been employed by a decreasing number of companies.

1.4.2 Presentation approach:

Using the concept of hypothesis testing statistical concentrates on production process rather than inspect the product.We inspect the process to determine when the process starts products that do not confirm to specifications.This allows us to correct the production process before it creates a large number of defective products.

All production processes results in variation, that no product is exactly the same as another. All product exhibit some degree of variation.

1.5 Two sources of variation

1.5.1 Chance variation

This is caused by a number of randomly occurring events that are a part of production process and that in general cannot be reduced without changing the process.Example of randomly occurring events are small variations in reaction conditions and small variations in quality of raw materials

1.5.2 Assignable variation

This is caused by specific events or factors that are frequently temporally and that can usually be classified.Example of assignable variations are mechanical faults in machines, faulty raw materials and reaction conditions of a chemical process.

1.6 Definition of Key Terms}

1.6.1 Statistical control}

A process operating in the absence of assignable causes of fluctuations through confined to chance variation is said to be in statistical control.

1.6.2 Out of Statistical Control

A process is said to be out of statistical control if assignable causes are present.These causes can be identified and hence eliminated.

NOTE: The objective of statistical quality control is to detect assignable cause of variation in quality as soon as they occur in the production process.

1.6.3 Variable

A variable is a single measurable quality characteristics such as weight, volume, height, age etc.

1.6.4 Attributes

An attributes is a quality characteristics which cannot be represented numerically. For instance the terminology “defective” or “non defective” is often used to identify two classification of a product.

1.7 Benefits of Quality Control

  • Better uniformity of product quality
  • Improved utilization of raw materials
  • More efficient use of equipment through early detection of faults
  • Reduction in scrap and rework
  • Stronger producer–consumer relations

1.8 Specification, Production and Inspection

Before production starts and decision has to be made as to what is to be designed and made.Net comes the actual manufacturing of the product. Finally it must be determined whether the product manufactured is what was intended. The quality of a manufactured product must be looked at in terms of these three functions of specification, production and inspection.

1.9 Statistical Control Process

1.9.1 statistical Control Chart

A control chart (also called process chart or quality control chart) is a graph that shows whether a sample of data falls within the common or normal range of variation. A control chart contains center line that represents the average of the quality characteristics corresponding to the in control state that is, only chance causes present. It also contains two horizontal lines called the upper control limit (UCL) and the lower control limit (LCL). The UCL and LCL are chosen so that if the process is in control, nearly all the sample point will fall between them. As long as the point plots within the control limits, the process is assumed to be in control and no action is necessary. A point that plots outside of the control limits is interpreted as evidence that the process is out of control and investigation and corrective action is required to find and eliminate the assignable causes of causes responsible for this behavior. It is customary important to connect the sample points on the control chart with straight line segment, so that it is easier to visualize how the segment of point has evolved over time. Even if all the point plot inside the control limit, if they behave in systematic manner or non-random manner, then this is an indication that the process is out of control. When the process is in control all the plotted points should have an essentially random pattern. Methods for looking for sequence or non-random pattern can be applied to control charts as an aid in detecting out-of- control condition. Usually, this is a reason why a particular non-random pattern appears on a control chart, and if it can be found and eliminated process performance can be improved.

1.10 Type I and Type II Errors

1.10.1 Type I Error

A type I error occurs when a point falls beyond that control limit indicating an out-of-control condition when no assignable cause is present.( ie we reject the hypothesis that the process is in-control when infact it is out-of-control)

1.10.2 Type II Error

A type II error occurs when a point falls between the control limit when that the process is really out-of-control. (ie we accept that the process is in-control when infact it is out-of-control).

NOTE:The risk of type I error decreases by moving the control limit further from the center. It increases by moving the control limits closer to the center line.

2 STATISTICAL CONTROL PROCESS

A control chart (also called process chart or quality control chart) is a graph that shows whether a sample of data falls within the common or normal range of variation. A control chart has upper and lower control limits that separate common from assignable causes of variation. The common range of variation is defined by the use of control chart limits.We say that a process is out of control when a plot of data reveals that one or more samples fall outside the control limits. Control charts are one of the most commonly used tools in statistical process control. They can be used to measure any characteristic of a product, such as the weight of a cereal box, the number of chocolates in a box, or the volume of bottled water. The different characteristics that can be measured by control charts can be divided into two groups: variables and attributes. A control chart for variables is used to monitor characteristics that can be measured and have a continuum of values, such as height, weight, or volume. A soft drink bottling operation is an example of a variable measure, since the amount of liquid in the bottles is measured and can take on a number of different values. Other examples are the weight of a bag of sugar, the temperature of a baking oven, or the diameter of plastic tubing.

2.1 Control Charts for Variable

These charts may be applied to any quality characteristic that is measurable. In order to control measurable characteristics, we have to exercise control on the measure of location as well as the measure of dispersion

2.1.1 Control limits for the mean – chart

Let X be the mean of a random sample of n observations taken from a population with mean \(\mu\) and variance \(\alpha^2\). The control limit for the mean are;

\[UCL=\mu +Z_\frac{\alpha}{2}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\] \[CL=\mu\] \[LCL=\mu -Z_\frac{\alpha}{2}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]

when normality is assumed.

This equations are referred as shewharts x-bar charts3-\(\sigma\) chart

In Shewharts x-bar chart we replace \(Z_\frac{\alpha}{2}\) with 3 so that the 3-\(\sigma\) limits are employed. Therefore, when normality is assumed the control limit become;

\[UCL=\mu +3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\] \[CL=\mu\] \[LCL=\mu -3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]

Similarly

\[UCL=\mu +A {\sigma}\] \[CL=\mu\] \[LCL=\mu -A {\sigma}\]

For \(A=\frac{3}{\sqrt{n}}\). where value for various values of n have been computed.

NOTE: These are known as the 3-\(\sigma\) limits where \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\) are known

Modified Shewharts x-bar charts

In this case these are two pairs of limits, the inner control limits and the outer control limits. The inner limits are also called the warning limit and the outer limits are also called action limits.

The warning limits are constructed such that 5percent of the sample means will fall outside them ie. \[p(|x-\mu|)>k<0.05\] Assuming normality, we have \(k=1.96\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) Therefore, the upper and lower warning limits are given by

\[UWL=\mu+1.96\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\] \[LWL=\mu-1.96\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]

For the construction of the action limit it is required that 0.2percent of the sample means fall outside the limits that is \[p(|x-\mu|)>k<0.02\]

Assuming, normality the value of is given by \(k=3.09\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\)

Therefore, the upper and lower action limit are given by

\[UAL=\mu+3.09\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\] \[LAL=\mu-3.09\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]

When an observed sample mean is within warning limits the the process is said to be under control. when two consecutive sample means are within the action and warning limits, then there is strong statistical evidence that assignable causes of variation are present and an action to trace and locate these causes should be initiated. For one sample mean outside the warning limit, the process is definitely out of control and an appropriate corrective measure must be taken.

Example 1

In the production of certain rod a process is said to be in control if the outside diameter have mean\(\mu=2.5cm\) and a standard deviation of 0.002cm.

  1. Construct the 3-\(\sigma\) control limits

  2. construct warning limits and the actions limits for a random samples of size 4.

  3. mean of 10 such random samples take at regular interval were

2.5014| 2.5022| 2.4995| 2.4962| 2.5001| 2.4993| 2.4966| 2.4971| 2.5076| 2.504

solution

The 3-\(\sigma\) control limits are given by

\[UCL=\mu+3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}={2.5+3\frac{(0.002)}{2}}=2.5030\] \[CL={\mu}=2.5\] \[lCL=\mu-3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}={2.5-3\frac{(0.002)}{2}}=2.4970\]

The warning limits are given by

\[UWL=\mu+1.96\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}={2.5+1.96\frac{(0.002)}{2}}=2.5020\] \[CL={\mu}=2.5\] \[lWL=\mu-1.96\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}={2.5-1.96\frac{(0.002)}{2}}=2.4980\]

The action limits are given by

\[UAL=\mu+3.09\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}={2.5+3.09\frac{(0.002)}{2}}=2.5031\] \[CL={\mu}=2.5\] \[lAL=\mu-3.09\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}={2.5-3.09\frac{(0.002)}{2}}=2.4969\]

Conclusion:The point 2.4962,2.5040, 2.4966 & 2.5076 are outside the action limit indicating that the process is out of control.

2.2 Control limits

When \(\mu\) and \(\sigma\) are Unknown

Sample No X₁ X₂ Xᵢ Xₙ 𝑋̄ᵢ Rᵢ Sᵢ²
1 X₁₁ X₁₂ X₁ⱼ X₁ₙ 𝑋̄₁ R₁ S₁²
2 X₂₁ X₂₂ X₂ⱼ X₂ₙ 𝑋̄₂ R₂ S₂²
i Xᵢ₁ Xᵢ₂ Xᵢⱼ Xᵢₙ 𝑋̄ᵢ Rᵢ Sᵢ²
k Xₖ₁ Xₖ₂ Xₖⱼ Xₖₙ 𝑋̄ₖ Rₖ Sₖ²

Let \(X_{ij}\), $ i=1,2,…n $ and $ j=1,2,..,k $ be the measurement on the $ i^ {th} $ sample.The sample mean$ X_i$, the range \(R_i\) and the standard deviation \(S_i\) for the $ i^ {th} $ sample are given by \[ \overline{X_i} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} \frac{X_{ij}}{n} \] \[R_i=max X_{ij}-min X_{ij} \] \[ S_i^2 = \frac{1}{n-1}\sum_{j=1}^{n} {(X_{ij}-\overline{X_i.})^2} \]

The average of sample means, sample ranges and sample standard deviations are respectively.

\[ \overline{\overline{X_i}} = \frac{1}{k}\sum_{i=1}^{k} {\overline{X_i}} \]

\[ \overline{R} = \frac{1}{k}\sum_{i=1}^{k} {R_i} \]

\[ \overline{S} = \frac{1}{k}\sum_{i=1}^{k} {S_i} \]

In practice , however \(\sigma\) is estimated by using sample ranges and sample standard deviation respectively.An unbiased estimate of the population mean \(\mu\) is X-double bar while an unbiased estimated of standard deviation using the sample range is

\(\hat{\sigma} = \dfrac{\overline{R}}{d_2}\)

where \({d_2}\) is a constant depending on the sample size n.Using these estimate of the population mean\(|mu\) and standard deviation \(\sigma\), the \(3-\sigma\) control limits are given by \[\overline{\overline{X}}\pm \frac{\overline{R}}{d_{2}\sqrt{n}}\]

\[\overline{\overline{X}} \pm A_{2}\overline{R}\]

where \(A_2=\frac{3}{d_{2}\sqrt{n}}\) is also a constant depending on the sample sizes. we have tables which give the values of $ A_{2}$ for various sample sizes.

Example

To determine whether a machine manufacturing springs is in control. 25 samples of size 4 were taken after every 2 hours and their strength measured. The measurement of the 25 samples are shown below by setting control units using ranges. Determine whether the process is in control.

Sample No X₁ X₂ X₃ X₄ 𝑋̄ᵢ Rᵢ
1 501.02 501.65 504.34 501.10 502.027 3.32
2 499.80 498.89 499.47 497.90 499.015 1.90
3 497.12 498.35 500.34 499.33 498.785 3.12
25 502.505 2.35

Solution

\[ \overline{\overline{X_i}} = \frac{1}{k}\sum_{i=1}^{k} {\overline{X_i}}=\frac{1}{25}\sum_{i=1}^{25} {\overline{X_i}}=500.38 \]

\[ \overline{R} = \frac{1}{k}\sum_{i=1}^{k} {R_i}= \frac{1}{25}\sum_{i=1}^{25} {R_i}=3.934 \]

The control limit are given by

\[\overline{\overline{X}} \pm A_{2}\overline{R}\]

For \(n=4\), we have \(A_{2} = 0.739\) Using tables.

\[UCL={500.380+0.73{(3.934)}}=503.25\] \[CL={\mu}=500.3802.5\] \[LCL={500.380-0.73{(3.934)}}=497.51\]

Conclusion

All the means fall within the control limits. we conclude that the process is in control.

2.3 The Range Chart( R-Chart)

It is known that the sample range is related to the process standard deviation. Therefore process variability may be controlled by plotting values of R from successive samples on a control chart. This control chart will be called R-chart

For small samples n<10 the range is a reasonable measure of dispersion but it is inefficient if the sample are large \((n\geq 10).\)

2.3.1 R-Chart when \(\sigma\) is known

Let R-denote the range of n observation drawn from a production process. Assuming that the quality characteristics is normally distributed then,

\[E(R)=d_2 \sigma \]

\[\sigma{_R}={\sqrt{Var(R)}}=C_2(E(R))=C_2 d_2 \sigma = C_3 \sigma\]
When \(d_2\) and \(d_3 = C_2d_2\) are constant depending on the sample size n

The \(3-\sigma\) control limit for the R -chart are given by \[UCl_R=E(R)+3\sigma_R\] \[UCl_R=E(R)+3C_2E(R)\] \[UCl_R=(1+3C_2)E(R)\] \[UCl_R=(1+3C_2)d_2\sigma\]

If we let \(D_2=(1+3C_2)d_2\) \[UCL_R=D_2\sigma\]

\[LCl_R=E(R)-3\sigma_R\] \[LCl_R=E(R)-3C_2E(R)\] \[LCl_R=(1-3C_2)E(R)\] \[LCl_R=(1-3C_2)d_2\sigma\]

If we let \(D_1=(1-3C_2)d_2\) \[LCL_R=D_1\sigma\]

We have table which give the values if \(D_1\) and \(D_2\) for various sample sizes n.

NOTE

  • \(CL_R=d_2\sigma\)

  • If we compute Value of the \(LCL_R\) is negative, the we take to be equal to zero since range cannot be negative.

  • Points below the \(LCL_R\) indicate an improvement in the process variability.

Example

A machine is turning out steel rods with a process average of 6cm and a std deviation of 0.005cm.

Required

Construct the \(3-\sigma\) control limit for the range length of samples of 5 rods.

\[UCL_R=D_2\sigma=4.92(0.005)=0.025\] \[CL_R=d_2\sigma=2.326(0.005)=0.012\] \[LCL_R=D_1\sigma=0(0.005)=0\]

2.3.2 R-Chart when \(\sigma\) is Unknown}

Assuming that the quality characteristics is normally distributed \(hat{\sigma_R}\) can be found from the distribution of the relative range.

\[W=\frac{R}{\sigma}\]

The standard deviation of \(W\) say \(d_3\) is a known function of n. Thus since \[R=W\sigma\] The standard deviation of \(R\) is \[\sigma_R = d_3\sigma\]

Since \(\sigma\) is known, we may estimate \(\sigma_R\) by

\[\hat{\sigma_R}=d_3 {\frac{\overline{R}}{d_2}}\]

The parameters of the R-chart using the $3-$ control limits are \[UCL_R=\overline{R}+3\hat{\sigma_R}\] \[UCL_R=\overline{R}+3d_3 {\frac{\overline{R}}{d_2}}\] \[CL_R=\overline{R}\] \[LCL_R=\overline{R}-3\hat{\sigma_R}\] \[LCL_R=\overline{R}-3d_3 {\frac{\overline{R}}{d_2}}\]

If we let \(D_4= 1+3{\frac{d_3}{d_2}}\) and \(D_3= 1-3{\frac{d_3}{d_2}}\)

Then the R-chart parameters are \[UCL_R=D_4\overline{R}\] \[CL_R=\overline{R}\] \[UCL_R=D_3\overline{R}\]

We have tables which give the value of $ D_3 $ and $ D_4 $ for various values of n.

Remark

When preliminary sample are used to construct the \(\overline{X}\) and \(R- chart\), it is customary to treat the control limits as trial values. then the k samples means and ranges should be plotted on the charts and any point that exceed the control limits should be investigated. if assignable causes for these points are discover they should be discarded and new trial control limit calculated.

Example

Piston rings for an automotive engine are produced by a forcing process. We wish to establish control of this process using \(\overline{X}\) and \(R- charts\). 25 samples, each of sizes 5 were taken and the means and ranges are given below.

Sample No 𝑋̄ᵢ Rᵢ
1 74.010 0.038
2 74.001 0.019
3 74.008 0.036
4 74.003 0.022
5 74.003 0.026
6 73.996 0.024
7 74.000 0.012
8 73.997 0.030
9 74.004 0.014
10 73.998 0.017
11 73.994 0.008
12 74.001 0.011
13 73.998 0.029
14 73.990 0.039
15 74.006 0.016
16 73.997 0.021
17 74.001 0.026
18 74.007 0.018
19 73.998 0.021
20 74.009 0.021
21 74.000 0.033
22 74.002 0.019
23 74.002 0.025
24 74.005 0.022
25 73.998 0.035

Required

  • Calculate the \(R-\) and \(\overline{X}\) Charts

  • Find out whether the process is in control

Solution

\[\overline{R}=\frac{1}{25}\sum{R_i}=\frac{0.581}{25}=0.023\] \[\overline{\overline{X}}=\frac{1}{25}\sum{\overline{X_i}}=\frac{1850.024}{25}=74.001\]

The control limit for the \(R- Chart\)

\[UCL_R=D_4\overline{R}=2.11(0.023)=0.049\] \[CL_R=\overline{R}=0.023\] \[UCL_R=D_3\overline{R}=0.023(0)=0\]

Conclusion: We see that no value of R is outside the control limit. The process variability is in control.

The control limit of the \(\overline{X}\) charts are given by \[UCL_{\overline{X}}={74.001+0.58{(0.023)}}=74.014\] \[CL={\overline{\overline{X}}}=74.001\] \[LCL_{\overline{X}}={74.001-0.58{(0.023)}}=73.988\]

Conclusion: All the values of sample means are within the control limits. We conclude that the process is in statistical control. \end{enumerate}

2.4 Control chart for Standard deviation (\(\sigma-\) Chart)

\(\sigma-\) Known

In sampling from a normal distribution the control limits for $ $ charts are given by

\[UCL_{\sigma}=B_2{\sigma}\] \[CL_{\sigma}=\sigma \] \[LCL_{\sigma}=B_1{\sigma}\]

\(\sigma-\)- Unknown

\(\hat{\sigma}\) is estimated by \[\hat{\sigma}=\frac{\overline{S}}{C_2}\]

The control limits are given by

\[UCL_{\overline{S}}=B_4{\overline{S}}\] \[CL_{\overline{S}}=\overline{S}\] \[LCL_{\overline{S}}=B_3{\overline{S}}\]

NOTE

When the sample size n is moderately large, say \(n>10 or 12\), the range method for estimating \(\sigma\) loses statistical efficiency. In these cases, it is best to replace the usual \(\overline{X}\) and \(R\) charts where the process standard deviation is estimated directly instead of indirectly through the use of \(R\). Therefore for the control purpose, from each subgroup, we must calculate the sample means $ $ and the sample standard deviation \(S\) ie.

\(\sigma-Unknown\)

If \(n\leq 10\) , use \(\overline{X}\) and \(R- charts\)

If $ n> 10$ , use \(\overline{X}\) and $ S- charts$

Example

Sample of size \(n=6\) are collected from a process every half hour. After 50 samples have been collected, we calculated $=20.0 $ and $ =1.5 $. Assuming that both charts exhibit control and that the quality characteristics is normally distributed.

Required

  • Estimate the process standard deviation

  • Find the control limits on the \(\overline{X}\) and \(S\) charts

  • Suppose an \(R\) chart were to be substituted for the \(S\) charts, what would be the appropriate parameter of the \(R\) charts

Solution

\[\hat{\sigma}=\frac{\overline{S}}{C_2}=\frac{1.5}{0.8686}=1.7269\]

The control limits of the \(\overline{X}\) charts are given by \[UCL_{\overline{X}}={20.0+1.41{(1.5)}}=22.115\] \[CL={\overline{\overline{X}}}=20.0\] \[LCL_{\overline{X}}={20.0-1.41{(1.5)}}=17.885\]

For the \(S\) chart control limits are given by

\[UCL_{\overline{S}}=B_4{\overline{S}}=1.97(1.5)=2.955\] \[CL_{\overline{S}}=\overline{S}=1.5\] \[LCL_{\overline{S}}=B_3{\overline{S}}=0.03(1.5)=0.045\]

We known that \(\hat{\sigma}=\frac{\overline{R}}{d_2}\)

\[UCL_R=D_4\overline{R}=2.003(4.38)=8.7731\] \[CL_R=\overline{R}=4.38\] \[LCL_R=D_3\overline{R}=0(4.38)=0\]

3 OPERATING CHARACTERISTICS (OC) CURVE

The ability of the \(\overline{X}\) and \(R\) chart to detect shifts in process quality is described by their operating characteristics curves. We shall look at OC curve for charts used for on time control of a process.

Consider the OC curve for the \(\overline{X}\) chart with the standard deviation \(\sigma\) known and constant. if the mean shifts from the in control state sat \(\mu_0\) the another value \(\mu_1=\mu_0+k\sigma\),

the Probability of not detecting this shift on the first sub sequence sample or the \(\beta-\) risk. \[\beta=p(LCL\leq \overline{X}\leq UCL/\mu=\mu_1=\mu_0)\]

Since \(\overline{X} \sim N(\mu_0, \frac{\sigma^2}{n}\) and the upper and lower control limits are \[ UCL=\mu_0+3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\] \[ LCL=\mu_0-3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\] \[\beta=p(\mu_0-3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\leq \overline{X}\leq \mu_0+3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}/\mu=\mu_0+k\sigma)\] \[\beta=p[\frac{(\mu_0-3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}})-(\mu_0+k\sigma)}{\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}}\leq \frac{\overline{X}-(\mu_0+k\sigma)}{\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}}\leq \frac{(\mu_0+3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}})-(\mu_0+k\sigma)}{\sigma{\sqrt{n}}}]\]

\[\beta=p[-\frac{3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}-k\sigma}{\sigma{\sqrt{n}}}\leq Z\leq \frac{3\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}-k\sigma}{\sigma{\sqrt{n}}}]\]

\[\beta=p[-3-k\sqrt{n}\leq Z\leq -3-k\sqrt{n}]\]

\[\beta=\phi [3-k\sqrt{n}] - \phi [-3-k\sqrt{n}]\]

where \(\phi\) denotes the standard normal cumulative distribution function.

NOTE

\(\mu_0\)= In control mean

\[\mu=\mu_0+k\sigma\]

Example

Let \(n=5\) and we wish to determine the probability of detecting a shift to \(\mu_0=\mu_0+2\sigma\) on the first sample following the shift, then since k=2 and n=5 we have

\[\beta=\phi [3-2\sqrt{5}] - \phi [-3-2\sqrt{5}]\]

\[\beta=\phi [-1.47] - \phi [-7.37]=0.0708\]

\(\beta=p\) This is \(\beta\) risk or probability of not detecting such a shift. the probability that such a shift will be detected on first sub sequence sample is \[ 1-\beta=1-p[LCL\leq\overline{X} \leq UCL]\]

To construct the OC curve for the \(\overline{X}\) chart, plot the \(\beta\) risk against the magnitude of the shift, we wish to detect expressed in standard deviation units for various sample sizes n ie \(\beta\) against k. the probability may be evaluated directly from equation above.

The probability that we shall defect a shift on the \(k^th\) sample is simply \(1-\beta\) time. The probability of not detecting the shift on each of the initial \(k-1\) sample or probability of detecting shift on sample=\(\beta^{k-1}(1-\beta)\)

In general the expected number of subgroup analysed before the shift is detected is

\[\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}{k\beta^{k-1}(1-\beta)}=(1-\beta)+2\beta(1-\beta)+3\beta^2(1-\beta)....)\] \[\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}{k\beta^{k-1}(1-\beta)}=(1-\beta)(1+2\beta+3\beta^2....)\]

\[\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}{k\beta^{k-1}(1-\beta)}=\frac{(1-\beta)}{(1-\beta)^2}=\frac{1}{1-\beta}\]

Definition

The expected number of samples taken before the shift is detected is the average run length (ARL)

\[ARL=\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}{k\beta^{k-1}}(1-\beta)=\frac{1}{(1-\beta)}\]

Example

For sample of size n=5. Find the average run length to detect the shift of \(1.0\sigma\)

\[\beta=\phi [3-1\sqrt{5}] - \phi [-3-1\sqrt{5}]\] \[\beta=\phi [0.7639] - \phi [-5.24]=0.7764\] \[ARL=\frac{1}{(1-\beta)}=\frac{1}{(1-0.7764)}=4.47\sim 4\]

4 CONTROL CHART FOR ATTRIBUTES

One limitation of the \(\overline{X}\) and \(R-charts\) is that they are charts for variables, that is for quality characteristics that can be measured and expressed in number. Many quality characteristics can be observed only as attributes , that is by classifying each item inspected into one of the two classes either conforming or non-conforming to specifications. If the number of quality characteristics to be measured is too large then the use of the \(\overline{X}\) and \(R\) charts is impractical as well as uneconomical. The control charts for attributes are;

  • The P-charts( The control chart for fraction defective)

  • The np-charts (The control chart for number of non-conforming items)

  • The C-charts (The control charts for the number of non-conformities)

  • The U-charts(The control charts for the number of non-conformities per unit

The cost of collecting data for attribute charts is likely to be less than the cost of collecting data for \(\overline{X}\) and \(R\) charts because the attribute charts generally uses data already collected for other purposes. \(\overline{X}\) and \(R\) charts on the others hand, require special measurement for control charts purpose. The cost of computing and charting may be less since one attributes chart may apply to any number of quality characteristics observed at an inspection station whereas separate \(\overline{X}\) and \(R\) charts are necessary for each measured quality characteristics.

4.1 The control charts for fraction defective (P-charts)

Suppose that a production process is producing items such that the proportion of defective items in the population of manufactured item is \(p\). Then the process will be said to be under control if the proportion of defective items in samples is the same as the population proportion \(p\), so \(p\) is also the probability that a manufactured item is defective.

Let \(X\) be a random variable such that

\[X=\begin{Bmatrix} 1 ,& defective with probability ,p\\ 0 ,& Otherwise \end{Bmatrix}\]

The the p.d.f of \(X\) is

\[f(x)=\begin{Bmatrix} p^x(1-p)^{1-x} ,& x=0,1\\ 0 ,& Otherwise \end{Bmatrix}\]

This is Bernoulli distribution with \(E(p)=p\) and \(var(p)=pq\).

Let \(X_1, X_2, ... ,X_n\) be n independent observation from the production process, then the best estimate of \(p\) is given by

\[\hat{p}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}x_i}{n}\]

Let \(D\) be the number of defective items in a sample of size \(n\), then

\[d=\sum_{i=1}^{n}x_i=n\hat{p}\]

The random variable \(D\) has the binomial distribution with parameters \(n\) and \(p\).

\[f(d)=\begin{Bmatrix} \binom{n}{d}p^d(1-p)^{n-d} ,& d=0,1,2,...,n\\ 0 ,& Otherwise \end{Bmatrix}\]

\(E(D)=np\); \(Var(D)=npq\) ;\(\hat{p}=\frac{D}{n}\)

\(E(\hat{p})=E(\frac{D}{n})=\frac{1}{n}E(D)=\frac{1}{n}*np=p\)

\(Var(\hat{p})=Var(\frac{D}{n})=\frac{1}{n^2}Var(D)=\frac{1}{n^2}npq=\frac{pq}{n}\)

The \(3-\sigma\) control limit are given by

\(E(p)\pm 3S.E(\hat{p}=p\pm3\sqrt{\frac{pq}{n}})\)

The control limits when \(p\) is known are

\[ UCL=p+3\sqrt{\frac{pq}{n}}\] \[ CL=p\] \[ LCL=p-3\sqrt{\frac{pq}{n}}\]

The Control limits when \(p\) is not known

We take m samples each of size \(n\) and for each sample we find the number of defective items

Sample No No. of Defective Fraction Defective (𝑝̂)
1 d₁ p̂₁
2 d₂ p̂₂
3 d₃ p̂₃
m dₘ p̂ₘ

The estimate of \(p\) is given by

\[\overline{p}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{m}\hat{p_i}}{m}\]

The control limits are given by;

\[ UCL=\overline{p}+3\sqrt{\frac{{\overline{p}}({1-\overline{p}})}{n}}\] \[ CL=\overline{p}\] \[ LCL=\overline{p}-3\sqrt{\frac{{\overline{p}}({1-\overline{p}})}{n}}\]

Example

The sample fraction defective for 27 samples of size 50 are given below

0.24 0.30 0.16 0.20 0.08 0.16 0.26 0.22 0.14
0.32 0.18 0.28 0.20 0.36 0.24 0.14 0.10 0.20
0.30 0.18 0.12 0.10 0.18 0.12 0.34 0.26 0.24

Required

Calculate the control limit for the \(p-\) chart

Solution

\[\overline{p}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{27}\hat{p_i}}{2}=0.2081\]

The control limits are given by;

\[ UCL=\overline{p}+3\sqrt{\frac{{\overline{p}}({1-\overline{p}})}{n}}=0.2081+3\frac{\sqrt{0.2081(1-0.2081)}}{50}=0.3804\] \[ CL=\overline{p}=0.2081\] \[ LCL=\overline{p}-3\sqrt{\frac{{\overline{p}}({1-\overline{p}})}{n}}=0.2081+3\frac{\sqrt{0.2081(1-0.2081)}}{50}=0.0358\]

4.2 Control Chart for numbers of defectives \(np\) or \(d\) chart

An \(np\) or\(d\) chart shows the actual number of defectives found in each sample. If \(p\) is the fraction defective, then the \(3-\sigma\) control limits for the \(d\) charts are given by \[ UCL=np+3\sqrt{np(1-p)}\] \[ CL=np\] \[ LCL=np-3\sqrt{np(1-p)}\]

If \(p\) is not known then, we use the mean fraction defective \(\overline{p}\) given by \[\overline{p}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{m}\hat{p_i}}{m}\]

The control limits in this chart are given by; \[ UCL=n\overline{p}+3\sqrt{n\overline{p}(1-\overline{p})}\] \[ CL=n\overline{p}\] \[ UCL=n\overline{p}+3\sqrt{n\overline{p}(1-\overline{p})}\]

Remarks on \(p\) and \(d\) -charts

  • If the number of items inspected on each occasion is the same, then it is in material if one uses the \(p\) -chart of the \(d\) -chart. But it would be more convenient and meaningful to use the \(d\) -chart than the \(p\) -chart

  • If the sample size varies from sample to sample then the central line as well as the control limits would also vary from sample to sample. In this case the \(p\)-chart is relatively simple and is preferred to the \(d\) -chart.

Example

control chart is used to control the fraction non-conforming of a process. 10 subgroups yield the following results

Sample No Sample Size Number
1 100 20
2 100 25
3 100 35
4 100 10
5 100 30
6 100 5
7 100 45
8 100 20
9 100 10
10 100 10

Required

  • Set up a control chart for the number non-conforming in samples of size \(n=100\). If any point plots outside the control limits assume the assignable causes can be found and recalculate the control limit

  • For the chart established in part(1), what is the probability of detecting a shift in the process fraction nonconforming to 0.30 on the first sample after the shift has occurred.

Solution

\[\overline{p}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{10}\hat{d_i}}{10}=\frac{210}{1000}=0.21\]

The control limits in this chart are given by; \[ UCL=n\overline{p}+3\sqrt{n\overline{p}(1-\overline{p})}=100(0.21)+3\sqrt{100(0.21)(1-0.21)}=33.21\] \[ CL=100(0.21)=21\] \[ LCL=n\overline{p}-3\sqrt{n\overline{p}(1-\overline{p})}=100(0.21)-3\sqrt{100(0.21)(1-0.21)}=8.79\]

We drop sample number 3,6 and 7 which plot outside the control limits.

\[\overline{p}=\frac{210-35-5-45}{7*100}=\frac{125}{700}=0.18\]

\[UCL=100(0.18)+3\sqrt{100(0.18)(1-0.18)}=29.53\] \[CL=100(0.18)=18\] \[LCL=100(0.18)-3\sqrt{100(0.18)(1-0.18)}=6.47\]

Sample number 5 with 30 defective item is outside the control limits dropping this, we find that

\[\overline{p}=\frac{125-30}{6*100}=\frac{95}{600}=0.16\]

\[UCL=100(0.16)+3\sqrt{100(0.16)(1-0.16)}=27\] \[CL=100(0.16)=16\] \[LCL=100(0.16)-3\sqrt{100(0.16)(1-0.16)}=5\]

Conclusion

All the remaining points are within the control limits. We adopt these limits for future control.

Probability of not detecting a shift

\[P(5\leq D\leq 27/p)=0.30\]

\[P\left[\frac{(5-np)}{\sqrt{npq}}\leq \frac{(D-np)}{\sqrt{npq}}\leq \frac{(27-np)}{\sqrt{npq}}\right]\]

\[P\left[\frac{(27-30)}{\sqrt{21}}\leq Z\leq \frac{(27-30)}{\sqrt{21}}\right]\]

\[P\left[\frac{-25}{\sqrt{4.58}}\leq Z\leq \frac{-3}{\sqrt{4.58}}\right]\]

\[P(-5.45\leq Z\leq -0.66)=0.2576\]

Therefore, the probability of detecting on the first subsequent sample is \(1-0.2546=0.7454\)

4.3 The Control Chart for non-Conformity

The \(\overline{X}\) and \(R\) charts may be applied to any quality characteristics that is measurable. The \(p\) and \(d\) charts may be applied to the results of any inspection that accepts or reject individual items of product. Thus both these types of charts are broadly useful in any statistical quality control process. The control chart for non-conformity generally called the \(c\) -chart, has a much more restricted field of usefulness.

4.3.1 The Control limits for the \(c\)- charts}

Suppose that defects occur in an inspection unit according to the Poisson distribution

\[f(x)\begin{Bmatrix} \frac{e^-{c}{^x}}{x!} &, x=0,1,2,....\\ 0 &, elsewhere \end{Bmatrix}\]

where \(x\) is the number of detected and \(c>0\) is the parameter of the poisson distribution.

We know that \(E(X)=c\) and \(Var(X)=c\)

\[UCL=c+3\sqrt{c}\] \[CL=c\] \[LCL=c-3\sqrt{c}\]

Assuming \(c\) is known, if \(LCL<0\) (negative) ,set \(LCL=0\)

Let \(\overline{c}\) be the mean number of non-conformity in a preliminary sample of inspection units.

Then the \(c\) -chart has trial control limits

\[UCL=\overline{c}+3\sqrt{\overline{c}}\] \[CL=\overline{c}\] \[LCL=\overline{c}-3\sqrt{\overline{c}}\]

Example

An automobile manufacturer wishes to control number of non-conformities in a sub-assembly area producing manual transmission. The inspection unit is defined as four transmission and data from 16(each of size 4) is shown below

Sample No No. of Non-Conformities
1 2
2 4
3 3
4 1
5 0
6 2
7 1
8 8
9 2
10 1
11 3
12 4
13 1
14 5
15 2
16 3

Required

  • Set up a control chart for non-conformities per units.

  • If some points are outside the trial control limits assume that assignable causes can be found for all out of control points and calculate the revised control chart parameters.

Solution

The average No. of non-conformity’s per units is

\[\overline{c}=\frac{42}{16}=2.63\]

\[UCL=\overline{c}+3\sqrt{\overline{c}}=2.63+3\sqrt{2.63}=7.50\] \[CL=\overline{c}=2.63\] \[LCL=\overline{c}-3\sqrt{\overline{c}}=2.63-3\sqrt{2.63}=-2.24\sim=0\]

The value 8 for sample number 8 is outside the trial control limits, we discard this point and find that

\[\overline{c}=\frac{42-8}{15}=2.27\]

\[UCL=2.27+3\sqrt{2.27}=6.79\] \[CL=2.27\] \[LCL=2.27\sqrt{2.27}=-2.25\sim=0\]

Conclusion

All the remaining point are within the control limits

Application of \(c\) -chart

Some examples where the \(c\) -chart can be applied are ;

  • The number of imperfections on a piece of cloth

  • The number of blemishes on a piece of paper

  • The number of air bubbles in a piece of glass

4.4 The \(u\) -chart}

For the \(c\) - chart that we have discussed that sample size is exactly one inspection unit. The inspection unit is chosen for operational or data- collection simplicity, we want to look at cases where the sample size is not necessarily one inspection unit.

  • We redefine a new inspection unit that is equal to n time the old inspection unit. If \(\overline{c}\) is the observed mean number of non-conformity’s in the original inspection, than the new control limits are given by

\[UCL=n\overline{c}+3\sqrt{n\overline{c}}\] \[CL=n\overline{c}\] \[LCL=n\overline{c}-3\sqrt{n\overline{c}}\]

  • The second approach involves setting up a control chart based on the average number of non- conformities per inspection uni, if we find n total non-conformities in a sample of n inspection units, then average number of non-conformities per inspection unit is \(u=\frac{c}{n}\)

The Parameter of the control chart are

\[UCL=\overline{u}+3\sqrt{\frac{\overline{u}}{n}}\] \[CL=\overline{u}\] \[LCL=\overline{u}-3\sqrt{\frac{\overline{u}}{n}}\]

When \(\overline{u}\) represent the average number of non-conformities per inspection unit in a preliminary set of data Control limits found would be regarded as trial control limits. The chart developed this way id called the control chart for non-conformities per unit or the \(u\)- charts.

Example

A personal computer manufacturer wishes to establish a control chart for non-conformities per unit on the final line. The sample size is selected as the computers. Data on the number of non-conformities is 20 samples of 5 computers each are shown below.

Sample No Sample Size Number
1 5 10
2 5 12
3 5 8
4 5 14
5 5 10
6 5 16
7 5 11
8 5 7
9 5 10
10 5 15
11 6 9
12 5 5
13 5 7
14 5 11
15 5 12
16 5 6
17 5 8
18 5 10
19 5 7
20 5 5

Required

Estimate the average number of non-conformities per unit

Solution

Sample No Average No. of Non-Conformities (u = c/n)
1 5.0
2 2.4
3 1.6
4 2.8
5 2.0
6 3.2
7 2.2
8 1.4
9 2.0
10 3.0
11 1.8
12 1.0
13 1.4
14 2.2
15 2.4
16 1.2
17 1.6
18 2.0
19 1.4
20 1.0

\[\overline{u}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{20}u_i}{20}=2.27\]

The Parameter of the control chart are; \[UCL=\overline{u}+3\sqrt{\frac{\overline{u}}{n}}=1.93+3\sqrt{\frac{1.93}{5}}=3.79\] \[CL=\overline{u}=1.93\] \[LCL=\overline{u}-3\sqrt{\frac{\overline{u}}{n}}=1.93-3\sqrt{\frac{1.93}{5}}=0.07\]

Conclusion

Therefore, all the point lies within the control limits, thus we can use the above trial control for current control.

4.4.1 The \(u\) -chart with varying sample size

For a fixed sample size of n inspection units, we have calculated the control limits as

\[UCL=\overline{u}+3\sqrt{\frac{\overline{u}}{n}}\] \[CL=\overline{u}\] \[LCL=\overline{u}-3\sqrt{\frac{\overline{u}}{n}}\]

However, if the subgroup size varies from sample to sample, the center line remains constant while the \(UCL\) and \(LCL\) vary immensely with the subgroup size n.

Example

The number of non-conformities observed in the final inspection of sub-assemblies has been tabulated as shown below

Day Average No. of Sub-assemblies Inspected Total No. of Non-conformities
1 2 10
2 4 30
3 2 18
4 1 10
5 3 20

Required

Does the process appear to be in control?

Solution

\[\overline{u}=\frac{\sum{c}}{\sum{n_i}}=\frac{10+30+18+10+20}{2+4+2+1+3}=\frac{88}{12}=7.33\]

Day nᵢ No. of Non-conformities (c) uᵢ = c/nᵢ UCL = ū + 3√(ū/n) LCL = ū − 3√(ū/n)
1 2 10 5.0 13.07 7.59
2 4 30 7.5 11.39 3.27
3 2 18 9.0 13.70 1.59
4 1 10 10.0 15.45 0.00
5 3 20 6.7 12.02 2.64

Conclusion

We see that all the sample average are within the control limits. Therefore, the process appears to be in control.

5 ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING FOR ATTRIBUTE

Acceptance sampling is major field of statistical quality control. Generally, a sample is taken from a lot and some quality characteristics is inspected on the basis of the information in this sample, a decision is made regarding lot dispotion. Usually, this decision is either to accept or reject the lot. Sometimes, we refer to this decision as lot sentencing. Generally, there are the approaching to lot sentencing.

  • Accept with no inspection
  • 100 percent inspection. that is inspect every item in the lot removing all defective unit found.
  • item Acceptance sampling

Acceptance sampling is likely to be useful under the following situations,

  • When testing is destructive

  • When the count of 100 percent inspection is extremely high

  • When 100 percent is not technologically feasible or would require so much calender time that production scheduling would be seriously affected.

  • When there are many items to be inspected and the inspection error is sufficiently high that 100 percent inspection might cause a higher percentage of defective units to be passed, then would occur with the use of a sampling plan

When the vendor has an excellent quality history and some reduction in inspection from 100 percent is desired.

Advantages of acceptance sampling

When acceptance sampling is contracted with 100 percent inspection, it has the following advantages.

  • It is usually less expensive because there is less inspection

  • There is reduced handling of the products hence reduced damaged

  • It is applicable to destructive testing

  • Fewer personnel are involved in inspection activities

  • It often greatly reduced the inspection error

  • The rejection of entire lots as opposed to the simple return of defectives often produces a strong motivation to the vendor for quality improvements

Disadvantages of acceptance sampling

  • Risk of accepting bad lots and rejecting good lots.

  • Less information is generated about the product or about the process that manufactured the product

  • Acceptance sampling require a lot of planning and documentation of the acceptance sampling procedure where as 100 percent inspection does not.

Acceptance sampling Procedure

Many firms uses an acceptance sampling to monitor the quality of the overload protectors. The acceptance sampling plan requires that firm quality control inspectors select and test a sample of overload protectors from each shipment. If very few defective units are found in the sample, the lot is probably of good quality and should be accepted. However, if a large number of defective units are found in the sample, the lot is probably of poor quality and should be rejected.

Outcome of Acceptance sampling

Decision H₀: True (Good Quality Lot) H₀: False (Poor Quality Lot)
Accept the Lot Correct Decision Type II Error (Accepting a poor-quality lot)
Reject the Lot Type I Error (Rejecting a good-quality lot) Correct Decision

Sampling Plans for Attribute

The sampling plan for inspections by attributes mainly used are;

  • Single sampling plan

  • Double sampling plan

  • Multiple sampling plan

  • Sequential sampling plan

5.1 Single Sampling Plans

If the decision about accepting or rejecting a lot is taken on the basis of one sample only, the acceptance sampling plan is described as Single sampling plan.

Let \(N\) be the lot size; \(n\) the sample size; \(c\) the acceptance number,

then the single sampling plan is described as follows;

  • Select a random sample of \(n\) items from the lot of size \(N\)

  • Inspect all the items in the sample.Let \(X\) be the number of defective items in the sample

  • If \(X\leq c\) ; Accept the lot

  • If \(X> c\) ; Reject the lot

The OC curve for the single sampling plan

In a lot of incoming quality \(p\), the number of defective items is \(NP\) and the number of non- defective items is \(N-NP=N(1-p)\). The probability of getting exactly \(x\) defective item in a sample of size \(n\) from this lot is given by the hyper-geometric distribution.

\[f(x:p)=\frac{\binom{Np}{x} \binom{N(1-p)}{n-x}}{\binom{N}{n}}\]

Therefore, the probability of accepting a lot of quality \(p\) is given by

\[P_a=\sum_{x=0}^{c}\frac{\binom{Np}{x} \binom{N(1-p)}{n-x}}{\binom{N}{n}}\]

Computing \(P_a\) for various \(p\) generated the OC curve. The computation of the hyper geometric probabilities is not easy, so in practices the binomial approximation is used, that is

\[P_a=\sum_{x=0}^{c}\binom{n}{x} p^{x}q^{n-x}\]

When we use the equation above for calculating \(P_a\), we only need the parameters \(n\) and \(c\), therefore at times we say that a single sampling plan is defined by these two parameters.

Example

If the lot fraction defective is \(p=0.01\),\(n=89\) and \(c=2\), then the \(P_a\) is given by \[P_a=P(x\leq 2)=P(x=0)+P(x=1)+P(x=2)\] \[P_a=\binom{89}{0}(0.01)^{0} (0.99)^{89}+\binom{89}{1}(0.01)^{1} (0.99)^{88}+\binom{89}{2}(0.01)^{2} (0.99)^{87}=0.9397\]

For various values of \(p\) the table below gives the probability of acceptance \(P_a\) when \(n=89\) and \(c=2\)

\[f(x)=\begin{Bmatrix}\binom{89}{x}p^{x} (1-p)^{89-x} &, x=0,1,...,89\\ 0 &, Elsewhere\end{Bmatrix}\]

Plotting \(P_a\) against \(p\) gives the OC curve

In the sampling plan \(n=89\), \(c=2\), if the lots are one percent defective the probability of acceptance is approximately 0.94. This means that if 100 lots from a process that manufactures one percent defective product are submitted to this sampling plan, we would expect to accept 94 of the lots and rejects 6 of them.

The ideal OC curve can be approached by increasing the sample size and keeping the acceptance number \(c\) proportional to \(n\).

5.2 Double Sampling Plan

If the decision is to accept or reject a lot on the basis of two samples plan is described as double sampling plan. It is defined by four parameters

  • \(n_1=\) Sample size on first sample

  • \(c_1=\) Acceptance number on first sample

  • \(n_2=\) Sample size on second sample

  • \(c_2=\) Acceptance number on second sample

Thus a random sample of size n, items is selected from the lot and the number of defectives in the sample\(X_1\)

  • If \(X_1\leq c_1\), the lot is accepted on the first sample

  • If \(X_1 > c_1\), the lot is rejected on the first sample

  • If \(c_1<X_1< c_2\), a second sample of size \(n_2\) is drawn from the remaining items in the lot, and the number of defectives in the sample \(X_2\) observed.

  • If \(X_1+X_2\leq c_2\), the lot is accepted

  • If \(X_1+X_2 > c_2\), the lot is rejected

The OC curve of the double Sampling plan

For a double sampling plan the lot will be accepted if and only if

  • \(X_1 \leq c_1\)

  • \(c_1 < X_1 \leq c_2\) and \(X_1 + X_2 \leq c_2\)

For any incoming quality \(p\) the probability of acceptance is given by

\[P_a=P(X_1 \leq c_1)+P(X_1 + X_2 \leq c_2)\]

Let \(f_1(x_1)\) be the probability of getting \(X_1\) defective item in the first sample , then

\[f_1(x_1)=\begin{Bmatrix}\binom{n_1}{x_1}p^{x_1} (1-p)^{n_1-x_1} &, x_1=0,1,...,n_1\\ 0 &, Elsewhere\end{Bmatrix}\]

If \(f_2(x_2 /x_1\), denotes the conditional probability of finding \(X_2\) defective in the second sample given that \(X_1\) defectives have already been found in the first sample, then

\[f_2(x_2/x_1)=\binom{n_2}{x_2}p^{x_2} (1-p)^{n_2-x_2}=f_2(x_2)\]

Let \(P_{a}^{'}\) denote the probability of acceptance on the first sample and \(P_{a}^{''}\) denote the probability of acceptance on the second sample, then

\[P_a=P_{a}^{'}+P_{a}^{''}\]

The joint p.d.f of \(X_1\) and \(X_2\) is given by

\[f(x_1,x_2)=f_1(x_1)*f_2(x_2/x_1)=\binom{n_1}{x_1}p^{x_1} (1-p)^{n_1-x_1} * \binom{n_2}{x_2}p^{x_2} (1-p)^{n_2-x_2}\]

\(P_{a}^{'}=P(X_1 \leq c_1)=\sum_{x_{1}=0}^{c_1}f_1(x_1)\)

\(P_{a}^{''}= P(c_1 < X_1 \leq c_2\) and \(X_1 + X_2 \leq c_2)\)

\[P_{a}^{''}= \sum_{(x_1,x_2)c_1 < X_1 \leq c_2 and X_1 + X_2 \leq c_2}f(x_1,x_2)\]

Example

For a double sampling plan with \(n_1=50;c_1=2;n_2=100\) and \(c_2=6\). Find the probability of acceptance \(P_a\). if the incoming lots have fraction defective is 0.05.

Solution

\[P_a=P_{a}^{'}+P_{a}^{''}\]

We accept on the first sample if \(X_1\leq 2\)

\(P_{a}^{'}=P(X_1 \leq 2)=\sum_{x_{1}=0}^{2}f_1(x_1)=\sum_{x_{1}=0}^{2}\binom{50}{x_1}(0.05)^{x_1} (0.95)^{50-x_1}\)

\[P_a=\binom{50}{0}(0.05)^{0} (0.95)^{50}+\binom{50}{1}(0.05)^{1} (0.95)^{49}+\binom{50}{2}(0.05)^{2} (0.95)^{48}=0.5405\]

We accept the lot on the second sample if \(2<X_1 \leq 6\) and \(X_1 + X_2 \leq 6\), the pair of points \((x_1, x_2)\) satisfying these are

(3,0) | (3,1) | (3,2) | (3,3) | (4,0) | (4,1) | (4,2) | (5,0) | (5,1) | (6,0) |

\[P_{a}^{''}= \sum_{(x_1,x_2)c_1 < X_1 \leq c_2 and X_1 + X_2 \leq c_2}f(x_1,x_2)\]

\[f(x_1,x_2)=f_1(x_1)*f_2(x_2/x_1)=\binom{50}{x_1}0.05^{x_1} (095)^{50-x_1} * \binom{100}{x_2}0.05^{x_2} (0.95)^{100-x_2}\]

\[f_1(3)=\binom{50}{3}(0.05)^{3} (0.95)^{47}=0.2198\] \[f_1(4)=\binom{50}{4}(0.05)^{4} (0.95)^{46}=0.1360\] \[f_1(5)=\binom{50}{5}(0.05)^{5} (0.95)^{45}=0.0658\] \[f_1(6)=\binom{50}{6}(0.05)^{6} (0.95)^{44}=0.026\]

\[f_2(0)=\binom{100}{0}(0.05)^{0} (0.95)^{100}=0.0059\] \[f_2(1)=\binom{100}{1}(0.05)^{1} (0.95)^{99}=0.0312\] \[f_2(2)=\binom{100}{2}(0.05)^{2} (0.95)^{98}=0.0812\] \[f_2(3)=\binom{100}{3}(0.05)^{3} (0.95)^{97}=0.1396\]

\[P_{a}^{''}= 0.0754\] \[P_a=P_{a}^{'}+P_{a}^{''}=0.5405+0.0754=0.6159\]

6 PROCESS CAPABILITY

6.1 Introduction

Process capability refers to the ability of a production process to meet or exceed preset specification. A critical aspect of statistical quality control is evaluating the ability of a production process to meet or exceed preset specification. To understand what this mean, lets look more closely at the term specification.

Production specification often called tolerances, are preset ranges of acceptable quality characteristics such as product dimensions. For a product to be considered acceptable, its characteristics must fall within this preset range. Product specification are usually established by design engineers or product design specialists. For instance, the specification for the width of a machine part may be specified as 15 inches \(\pm 0.3\). This means that the width of the part should be 15 inches, though it is acceptable if it falls within the limits of 14.7 inches and 15.3 inches.

Specification for a product are preset on the basis of how the product is going to be used or what customer expectation are. As we have learned, any production process has a certain amount of natural variation associated with it. To be capable of producing an acceptable product, the process variation cannot exceed the preset specification. process capability thus involves evaluating process variability relative to preset product specification in order to determine whether the process is capable of producing an acceptable product.

Measuring Process Capability

To produce an acceptable product, the process must be capable and in control before production begins. Process capability is measured by the process capability index \(C_p\) which is computed as the ratio of the specification width to the width of the process variability.

\[C_p=\frac{USL-LSL}{6\sigma}\]

Where,

Specification width is the difference between the Upper Specification Limit (\(USL\)) and Lower Specification Limit (\(LSL\)) of the process

Process width computer as 6 standard deviation of the process being monitored

NB

The reason we use \(6\sigma\) is that most of the process measurement 99.74 percent falls within \(\pm 3\) standard deviation which is a total 6 standard deviation.

There are three possible ranges of values for \(C_p\) that also help us interpret its value.

  • A value of \(C_p=1\) means that the process variability just meets specification. We would then say that the process is minimally capable.

  • A value of \(C_p\leq 1\) means that the process is outside the range of specifications. This means that the process is not capable of producing within specification and the process must be improved.

  • A value of \(C_p\geq 1\) means that the process variability is tighter than specifications and the process exceeds minimal capability

Example

Three bottling machine of Cococola are being evaluated for their capability

Bottling Machine Standard Deviation
A 0.05
B 0.10
C 0.20

If specification are set between 15.8 and 16.2 litres, determine which of the machine are capable of producing within specification.

Solution

Bottling Machine Standard Deviation USL LSL Cₚ
A 0.05 0.4 0.3 1.33
B 0.10 0.4 0.6 0.67
C 0.20 0.4 1.2 0.33

Comment

The results indicate that only machine A is capable of filling bottle within specification because it is the only machine that has s \(C_p\) value at or above one (1).

NB:

\(C_p\) valuable in measuring process capability. However, it has one shortcomings: It assumes that process variability is centered on the specification range. Unfortunately, This is not always the case. For instance, the specification limit are set between 15.8 and 16.2 litres, with a mean of 16 litres. However, the process variation is not centered, it has a mean of 15.9 liters. Because of this, certain proportion of products will fall outside the specification range.

The problem illustrated in the above example is not un-common, but it can lead to mistakes in the computation of the \(C_p\) measure. Because of this another measure for process capability is used more frequently.

\[C_pk=Min\left[{\frac{USL-\mu}{3\sigma}},{\frac{\mu-LSL}{3\sigma}}\right]\]

where \(\mu\) =mean of the process and \(\sigma\)= standard deviation of the process

This measure of process capability helps us address a possible lack of centering of the process over the specification range. To use this measure, the process capability of each half of the normal distribution is computed and minimum of the two is used.

Example

Compute the \(C_pk\) measure of process capability for the following machine and interpret the finding given the following information below.

\(USL=110\) ,\(LSL=50\) ,\(\mu=60\) and \(\sigma=10\)

\[C_pk=Min\left[{\frac{USL-\mu}{3\sigma}},{\frac{\mu-LSL}{3\sigma}}\right]\]

\[C_pk=Min\left[{\frac{110-60}{3\sigma}},{\frac{60-50}{3\sigma}}\right]\]

\[C_pk=Min\left[{\frac{110-60}{3(10)}},{\frac{60-50}{3(10)}}\right]\]

\[C_pk=Min\left[1.67,0.33\right]=0.33\]

This means that the process is not capable. The \(C_p\) measure of process capability gives us the following measure.

\[C_p=\frac{60}{6(10)}=1\]

Leading us to believe that the process is capable. The reason for the difference in the measures is that the process is not centered on the specification range.

Exercise

Q1.Three Ice cream packing machine at the creamy treat company are being evaluated for this capability. The following data are recorded.

Packaging Machine Standard Deviation
A 0.20
B 0.30
C 0.05

If specification are set between 15.8 and 16.2 units, determine which of the machine are capable of producing within specification.

Q2. Compute the \(C_pk\) measure of process capability for the following machine and interpret the findings. What value would you have obtained with the \(C_p\) measure? Given the information below \(USL=100\) ,\(LSL=70\) ,\(\mu=80\) and \(\sigma=5\)