Exploratory Data Analysis

Exploratory Data Analysis

An exploratory analysis was conducted to identify initial patterns:

Intentional Homicides

Anomaly diagnosis

## frequency = 7 observations per 1 week
## trend = 92 observations per 3 months

Homicide rate by department

## Warning: package 'janitor' was built under R version 4.4.3
## 
## Adjuntando el paquete: 'janitor'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
## 
##     chisq.test, fisher.test

Homicide rate by municipality

Forecast of intentional homicide

VAR 1 Model: Homicide ~ Robbery + Bodily injury + Domestic violence

The following table shows the model’s forecast with all variables from August 16 to 31, 2025:

##       fcst lower upper   CI
##  [1,] 33.2  16.1  50.3 17.1
##  [2,] 34.4  17.1  51.7 17.3
##  [3,] 44.1  26.7  61.6 17.5
##  [4,] 34.0  16.5  51.5 17.5
##  [5,] 37.7  20.1  55.3 17.6
##  [6,] 34.7  17.1  52.4 17.7
##  [7,] 35.9  18.2  53.7 17.7
##  [8,] 35.0  16.6  53.4 18.4
##  [9,] 36.2  17.3  55.0 18.8
## [10,] 42.3  23.4  61.2 18.9
## [11,] 38.6  19.6  57.6 19.0
## [12,] 34.3  15.2  53.4 19.1
## [13,] 37.6  18.4  56.8 19.2
## [14,] 36.3  17.0  55.5 19.3
## [15,] 35.8  16.2  55.4 19.6
## [16,] 36.0  16.2  55.8 19.8

Modelo VAR 2: Homicides ~ Bodily injury + Domestic violence

The following table shows the model’s forecast with all variables from August 16 to 31, 2025:

##       fcst lower upper   CI
##  [1,] 30.8  13.2  48.5 17.6
##  [2,] 38.4  20.6  56.2 17.8
##  [3,] 41.2  23.3  59.2 18.0
##  [4,] 33.2  15.3  51.2 18.0
##  [5,] 35.9  17.8  54.0 18.1
##  [6,] 35.8  17.7  54.0 18.2
##  [7,] 37.3  18.9  55.6 18.3
##  [8,] 32.5  13.2  51.8 19.3
##  [9,] 38.8  19.3  58.3 19.5
## [10,] 40.2  20.6  59.9 19.6
## [11,] 36.5  16.9  56.2 19.7
## [12,] 35.1  15.3  54.8 19.7
## [13,] 36.7  16.9  56.5 19.8
## [14,] 36.5  16.6  56.4 19.9
## [15,] 34.7  14.5  55.0 20.3
## [16,] 37.9  17.4  58.3 20.4

Modelo VAR 3: Homicides ~ Bodily injury + Robbery

The following table shows the model’s forecast with all variables from August 16 to 31, 2025:

##       fcst lower upper   CI
##  [1,] 35.3  17.9  52.7 17.4
##  [2,] 36.1  18.6  53.6 17.5
##  [3,] 42.2  24.5  60.0 17.8
##  [4,] 38.1  20.2  55.9 17.8
##  [5,] 33.7  15.7  51.6 18.0
##  [6,] 32.4  14.4  50.4 18.0
##  [7,] 35.0  16.9  53.0 18.0
##  [8,] 36.6  17.5  55.8 19.1
##  [9,] 36.6  17.4  55.9 19.3
## [10,] 41.4  21.9  60.9 19.5
## [11,] 38.8  19.3  58.4 19.6
## [12,] 34.5  14.9  54.1 19.6
## [13,] 33.5  13.8  53.1 19.7
## [14,] 35.4  15.7  55.1 19.7
## [15,] 36.9  16.7  57.0 20.2
## [16,] 37.2  16.9  57.5 20.3

Summary of model forecasts

El siguiente cuadro presenta un comparativo de los pronósticos realizados por cada modelo y los valores observados entre el 16 y el 31 de octubre.

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