USA Tracker

Author

José Victor Santos Lopes

Published

September 28, 2025

ImportantAdvanced Dashboard Features

0.0.1 Professional Visualization Suite:

  • NBER Recession Shading: Authoritative gray bars marking official US recession periods with precise start/end dates
  • Interactive Data Tables: Professional DT tables with sorting, filtering, searching, and multi-format export capabilities (Excel, CSV, PDF)
  • Real-Time Status System: Dynamic HTML indicators showing data freshness:
    • UPDATED: Fresh data retrieved from live APIs
    • CACHED: Recently cached data (performance optimization)
  • Responsive Design: Charts automatically adapt to different screen sizes and devices
  • Professional Color Palette: Carefully selected colors optimized for accessibility and print compatibility

0.0.2 Advanced Technical Capabilities:

  • Universal Cache System: Intelligent caching across all data sources (FRED, BLS, Yahoo Finance, Web Scraping)
  • Granular Control Panel: Master toggles for system-wide or source-specific data management
  • Source Attribution: Complete data lineage tracking with provider identification
  • Error Recovery: Graceful degradation ensuring dashboard functionality under all conditions
  • Performance Optimization: Parallel data loading and memory-efficient processing

0.0.3 Data Quality Assurance:

  • Multi-Layer Validation: Automatic data structure and integrity verification
  • Revision Tracking: Proper handling of statistical revisions and updates
  • Temporal Consistency: Standardized time series alignment across different frequencies
  • Comprehensive Logging: Detailed operation status and error reporting

These enterprise-grade features ensure reliable, professional-quality economic analysis with complete transparency about data sources and system status.

1 Executive Summary

NoteCurrent Economic Assessment

1.0.1 Comprehensive Economic Monitoring Dashboard

This advanced analytical platform provides real-time monitoring of 100+ economic indicators across recession signals, labor markets, manufacturing, inflation, consumer sentiment, and financial conditions. The dashboard integrates data from 8+ authoritative sources including Federal Reserve banks, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and market data providers.

1.0.2 Key Dashboard Capabilities:

  • Recession Early Warning System: Sahm Rule (current & real-time), NBER indicators, and composite signals
  • Comprehensive Labor Analysis: Employment, wages, JOLTS dynamics, and participation rates across demographics
  • Manufacturing Intelligence: ISM indices, industrial production, and supply chain indicators
  • Inflation Monitoring: Core PCE, CPI components, PPI, and market-implied expectations
  • High-Frequency Tracking: Weekly Economic Index and GDP Now nowcasting
  • Financial Market Integration: Equity performance, interest rates, and yield curve analysis
    • Consumer Behavior: Sentiment indices, spending patterns, and credit conditions

1.0.3 Professional Economic Analysis:

Each indicator includes detailed economic context, methodological explanations, and professional interpretation guidelines. The system automatically flags data quality, tracks revisions, and provides transparent source attribution for all metrics.

1.0.4 System Status:

  • Dashboard Version: Professional Economic Intelligence Platform
  • Data Coverage: September 2024 - September 2025
  • Last Updated: September 28, 2025 at 01:23 PM -03
  • Active Data Sources: 8 integrated providers with real-time monitoring
TipEnterprise Data Management System

1.0.5 Universal Cache Architecture:

This dashboard implements a sophisticated Universal Cache System supporting all data sources with granular control capabilities:

Master Control Variables: - UPDATE_ALL_DATA: Global system refresh override - USE_CACHE_ONLY: Force cache-only mode for all sources - FORCE_REFRESH_ALL: Bypass all caches and force fresh data retrieval

Source-Specific Controls: - UPDATE_FRED_ONLY: Federal Reserve Economic Data refresh - UPDATE_BLS_ONLY: Bureau of Labor Statistics refresh - UPDATE_YAHOO_ONLY: Financial market data refresh - UPDATE_WEB_SCRAPING_ONLY: YCharts/Trading Economics refresh

1.0.6 Intelligent Data Management:

  • Automatic Fallback System: Cache → API → Synthetic data progression
  • Real-Time Status Tracking: Live monitoring of all data source states
  • Performance Optimization: Reduces API calls by 90%+ while maintaining data freshness
  • Error Recovery: Graceful handling of API limitations, timeouts, and service interruptions
  • Quality Assurance: Multi-layer validation ensuring data integrity across all sources

Professional Usage: Set appropriate control variables based on analysis requirements. The system automatically manages API rate limits, cache expiration, and data quality validation across all integrated sources.

2 Recession Indicators

Real-Time Economic Health Monitoring: This dashboard continuously tracks multiple recession indicators to provide early warning signals of economic downturns. The Sahm Rule serves as the primary automated recession indicator, while complementary measures from NBER and labor market dynamics provide comprehensive coverage.

Indicator Status Overview: - Sahm Rule Current: Uses final revised unemployment data for historical accuracy - Sahm Rule Real-time: Uses preliminary data as available in real-time (simulation) - NBER Composite: Six-indicator methodology for official recession dating - Labor Market Stress: Employment trends, quit rates, and participation metrics

Monitoring Protocol: Recession signals require confirmation across multiple indicators. Single-indicator triggering warrants increased surveillance but not automatic recession declaration. The system provides both current assessments and real-time simulations for comprehensive analysis.

The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm. It signals the beginning of a recession when the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its minimum over the previous 12 months. Historically, this indicator has been very effective in identifying the onset of recessions quickly and reliably.

Sahm Rule: Unemployment Relative to Recent Low

Calculation: 3-month MA of unemployment − lowest 3-month MA of the previous 12 months Frequency: Monthly Units: Percentage points (p.p.)

Source: FRED (UNRATE) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:14

2.1 IURSA + Sahm Rule

2.1.1 IURSA + Sahm Rule (Current)

The Sahm Rule Current uses revised and final unemployment data, providing the most accurate measurement retrospectively. It is calculated with data that has undergone all statistical revisions, representing the historical “truth” about when recessions began. This version is ideal for academic analysis and model validation.

Insured Unemployment Rate and Sahm Rule (Current)

Frequency: Weekly (IURSA), Monthly (Sahm) Units: Percent (%) and Percentage points (p.p.)

IURSA: Insured unemployment rate | Sahm Current: Revised and final data

Source: FRED (IURSA, SAHMCURRENT) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:14

2.1.2 IURSA + Sahm Rule (Real-time)

The Sahm Rule Real-time uses unrevised unemployment data, exactly as it was available at the time of original publication. This simulates what an analyst would see in real time, including measurement errors and preliminary data. This version is crucial for assessing the practical utility of the indicator for real-time forecasting.

Insured Unemployment Rate and Sahm Rule (Real-time)

Frequency: Weekly (IURSA), Monthly (Sahm) Units: Percent (%) and Percentage points (p.p.)

IURSA: Insured unemployment rate | Sahm Real-time: Unrevised data, as originally published

Source: FRED (IURSA, SAHMREALTIME) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:14
TipKey Differences: Current vs Real-time Data

Sahm Rule Current (Revised Data): - Data Quality: Uses final, revised unemployment statistics - Accuracy: Represents the historical “truth” after all statistical corrections - Best Use: Retrospective analysis, academic research, and model validation - Signal Quality: Clearer and more reliable signals due to data accuracy - Limitation: Not available for real-time decision making

Sahm Rule Real-time (Original Data): - Data Quality: Uses preliminary, unrevised data as originally published - Realism: Simulates actual real-world decision-making conditions - Noise Level: Includes initial measurement errors and statistical noise - Best Use: Assessing practical utility and real-time forecasting capability - Limitation: May generate false signals due to preliminary data revisions

Key Insight: Real-time data is more relevant for practical applications, while current data provides the most accurate historical perspective.

The comparison between both helps understand the reliability of the indicator in real time versus its historical accuracy.

2.2 NBER Recession Indicators

NBER Recession Indicators are based on six key economic series that the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee uses to determine recessions. The chart shows how many of these indicators are experiencing three consecutive monthly declines simultaneously. When multiple indicators show this deterioration, it may signal the beginning of a recession.

NBER recession indicators: count with 3 consecutive monthly declines

Real M&T sales, Industrial Production, Real PI ex transfers, Real PCE, Payrolls, Household employment

Source: FRED (CMRMTSPL, INDPRO, W875RX1, PCEC96, PAYEMS, CE16OV) | Data: BEA, FRB, BLS, NBER

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:13

3 Growth and Capital Spending Indicators

3.1 GDP Growth Metrics

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of all final goods and services produced in an economy during a specific period. It is the primary indicator of a country’s economic activity and measures the size of the economy. Real GDP is adjusted for inflation, allowing for comparisons over time.

3.1.1 GDP (q/q)

Real GDP - Quarterly Growth

Calculation: Quarter-over-quarter percentage change, seasonally adjusted Frequency: Quarterly Units: Percent (%)

Source: FRED (GDPC1) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

3.1.2 GDP (q/q AR)

Real GDP - Annualized Quarterly Growth

Quarter-over-quarter percentage change, annualized, seasonally adjusted

Source: FRED (GDPC1) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

3.2 Manufacturing and Orders

Manufacturing and Orders are critical leading indicators of future economic activity. Durable goods orders and industrial production provide insights into business investment intentions and the health of the productive sector. These indicators often anticipate changes in GDP and employment, making them valuable for forecasting the economy’s direction.

3.2.1 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders measure orders for products with an expected lifespan of three years or more, such as automobiles, appliances, and industrial equipment. It is a leading indicator of economic activity as it reflects future demand for manufactured goods. The “Ex. Transportation” and “Ex. Defense” versions remove the volatility of these specific sectors.

Durable Goods Orders - All Items, Ex. Transportation, Ex. Defense

Millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

Source: FRED (DGORDER, ADXTNO, ADXDNO) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

3.2.2 Industrial Production

The Industrial Production Index measures the real output of all resident establishments in the industrial sector of the economy. It includes mining, manufacturing, and public utilities (electricity, gas, water). It is a key indicator of economic activity and is used by the Federal Reserve to assess the health of the productive sector.

Industrial Production Index

Index (Base: 2017 = 100), seasonally adjusted

Source: FRED (INDPRO) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:22

3.2.3 ISM Manufacturing New Orders

ISM Manufacturing New Orders is a leading indicator that reflects future demand in the manufacturing sector. Values above 50 indicate expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction. It is one of the most important components of the Manufacturing PMI.

ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index

Diffusion index (>50 = expansion, <50 = contraction)

Source: YCharts (data extracted via web scraping) • Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Data refreshed at: 2025-09-28 13:08:22

3.2.4 ISM Manufacturing Inventories

ISM Manufacturing Inventories measures the inventory levels held by manufacturing companies. High values may indicate weak demand or excess production, while low values may suggest strong demand or potential supply bottlenecks.

ISM Manufacturing Inventories Index

Diffusion index (>50 = inventories growing, <50 = inventories declining)

Source: YCharts (data extracted via web scraping) • Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Data refreshed at: 2025-09-28 13:08:22

3.2.5 ISM Customer Inventories

ISM Customer Inventories is an inverted indicator that measures the inventory levels of manufacturing companies’ customers. Low values (like the current 44.60) indicate that customers have reduced inventories and will likely need to place new orders soon, signaling potential future demand.

ISM Customer Inventories Index

Inverted diffusion index (<50 = low inventories = potential future demand)

Source: YCharts (data extracted via web scraping) • Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Data refreshed at: 2025-09-28 13:08:22

3.2.6 ISM New Orders Less Manufacturing Inventories

ISM New Orders Less Manufacturing Inventories is a composite indicator that measures the difference between new orders and manufacturers’ inventories. Positive values indicate that demand (New Orders) exceeds manufacturers’ inventories, suggesting production pressure. Negative values indicate excess manufacturers’ inventories relative to demand.

ISM New Orders Less Manufacturing Inventories Index

Differential (positive values = demand > manufacturer inventories, negative values = manufacturer inventories > demand)

Source: YCharts (calculated from web scraped data) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Data refreshed at: 2025-09-28 13:08:22

3.2.7 ISM Manufacturing PMI

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is the main index that measures the overall health of the US manufacturing sector. It is a composite index based on five components: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. Values above 50 indicate sector expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

ISM Manufacturing PMI Index

Composite index (>50 = manufacturing expansion, <50 = contraction)

Source: Trading Economics/YCharts (web scraping) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Data refreshed at: 2025-09-28 13:08:22

3.2.8 ISM Manufacturing Employment Index

The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index measures employment conditions in the US manufacturing sector. It is one of the five main components of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Values above 50 indicate expansion in manufacturing employment, while values below 50 indicate contraction. This indicator is crucial for assessing the health of the industrial labor market.

ISM Manufacturing Employment Index

Index (>50 = employment expansion, <50 = employment contraction)

Source: YCharts (data extracted via web scraping) • Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Data refreshed at: 2025-09-28 13:08:22

3.3 Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides a real-time reading of US economic growth. It is constructed using ten daily and weekly economic indicators, including employment data, industrial production, retail sales, and financial markets. The WEI is calibrated to real GDP annual growth and provides a timely view of current economic conditions.

Dallas Fed – US Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

Weekly index (10 series); scaled to GDP growth over 4 quarters

Source: Dallas Fed (Weekly Economic Index) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

3.4 GDP Now (Atlanta Fed)

GDP Now is the Atlanta Fed’s nowcasting model that provides a real-time estimate of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, annualized rate) for the current quarter. The model is updated several times a month as new economic data is released, incorporating information from 13 subcomponents of GDP. It is a valuable tool for tracking the evolution of growth expectations throughout the quarter.

Atlanta Fed GDP Now - Current Quarter Historical Estimation

Real-time estimates of quarterly GDP growth (q/q, seasonally adjusted, annualized)

Source: Atlanta Fed (GDP Now Model) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

4 Labor Markets

4.1 Nonfarm Payrolls - Net Monthly Change

Nonfarm Payrolls measures the total number of paid workers in the U.S., excluding farm proprietors, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations, and military and intelligence personnel. It is one of the most important indicators of the labor market and overall economic health, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Net Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

3-month moving average, thousands of people, seasonally adjusted

Source: FRED (PAYEMS) • NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.2 Employment - Quarterly Percentage Change

Employment (Nonfarm Payrolls) - 2-Quarter Percentage Change

Percentage, 2-quarter change, seasonally adjusted, annualized

Source: FRED (PAYEMS) • NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:13

4.3 US Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees

The Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees is an important leading indicator of economic activity. When demand increases, employers often increase working hours before hiring new employees. When demand decreases, they reduce hours before layoffs. Thus, changes in hours worked can signal future changes in employment and overall economic activity.

US Average Weekly Hours of Manufacturing Employees

Hours per week, seasonally adjusted

Source: FRED (AWHMAN) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.4 JOLTS Voluntary Quit Rate

The JOLTS Quit Rate measures the percentage of workers who voluntarily leave their jobs each month. It is an important indicator of worker confidence in the labor market - higher rates generally indicate that workers are confident in finding new jobs, reflecting a hot labor market and career opportunities.

JOLTS Voluntary Quit Rate

Percentage of workers who voluntarily left their jobs, seasonally adjusted

Source: FRED (JTSQUR) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.5 Labor Force Participation Rate

The Labor Force Participation Rate measures the percentage of the working-age population that is in the labor force (employed or looking for work). It is a critical indicator of labor market health that complements the unemployment rate. The different age groups show important demographic trends: the 25-54 group represents prime-age workers, while the over 54 group reflects retirement trends and the participation of older workers.

Labor Force Participation Rate - Over 54 Group

Participation rate for older workers (over 54 years)

Source: FRED (LNS11324230) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED

Labor Force Participation Rate - Age 25-54 Group

Participation rate for prime-age workers (25-54 years)

Source: FRED (LNS11300060) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:13

4.6 US Unemployment Rates (U3 vs U6)

US Unemployment Rates have different definitions: U3 is the official unemployment rate that includes only people actively looking for work. U6 is a broader measure that includes “marginally attached” workers (who want work but have stopped looking) and part-time workers for economic reasons. U6 provides a more comprehensive view of unemployment and underemployment in the economy.

US Unemployment Rates: U3 vs U6

U3: Unemployed / (Employed + Unemployed) | U6: + Marginally attached + Part-time for economic reasons

Source: FRED (UNRATE, U6RATE) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:13

4.7 Labor Market Dynamics

Labor Market Dynamics analyzes the relationship between labor supply and demand. Labor demand includes all filled jobs plus job openings, representing the economy’s total need for workers. Labor supply is represented by the labor force - people employed or actively looking for work. The balance between these forces determines labor market conditions and wage pressures.

4.7.1 Labour Demand and Supply

Labour Demand and Supply

Thousands of people, seasonally adjusted

Source: BLS (LNS11000000, LNS12000000, JTS000000000000000JOL)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.7.2 Labor Demand - Supply Difference

Labor Demand - Supply

Difference in thousands of people (Total Demand - Labor Force)

Source: BLS (LNS11000000, LNS12000000, JTS000000000000000JOL)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.7.3 Job Openings Rate

Job Openings Rate

Percentage of job openings, seasonally adjusted

Source: BLS (JTS000000000000000JOR)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.8 Employment and Earnings

Employment and Wages are fundamental indicators of economic health that measure both the quantity and quality of jobs. Payroll data shows how employment is evolving between the public and private sectors, while wage data reveals whether workers are benefiting from economic growth through real income increases.

4.8.1 Nonfarm Payroll Monthly Variation

Nonfarm Payroll Monthly Variation

Monthly change in thousands - Private vs Government

Source: BLS (CES0500000001, CES9000000001)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.8.2 Average Weekly Earnings

Average Weekly Earnings measures the average hourly pay multiplied by the average hours worked per week for all employees on private non-farm payrolls. It is an important indicator of worker income and purchasing power, reflecting wage trends in the economy.

Average Weekly Earnings (y/y %)

Year-over-year percentage change

Source: BLS (CES0500000011)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.8.3 Job Switchers vs Stayers Wage Premium

The Job Switcher Wage Premium from the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker measures the difference in year-over-year wage growth between workers who switched jobs (job switchers) versus those who remained in the same job (stayers). A positive premium indicates that workers who change jobs are getting larger wage increases, which usually reflects a hot and competitive labor market.

Premium of Job Switchers vs Stayers

Percentage point difference in y/y wage growth between job switchers and stayers • Data with 3-month moving average (MA3)

Source: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (data_overall sheet)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

4.8.4 Wage Inflation Measures

Wage Inflation Measures compare different methodologies for capturing wage growth in the economy. The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker measures the y/y wage change of individual workers using data from the Current Population Survey, while the Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the change in total compensation costs for employers. These two series provide complementary perspectives on wage inflationary pressures.

Wage Inflation Measures (y/y % change)

Atlanta Fed WGT: Individual wage growth (MA3) | ECI: Employer compensation costs (quarterly)

Source: Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (data_overall sheet) | FRED (ECIALLCIV)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:36

5 Inflation Expectations

5.1 Market-Implied US Inflation Expectations

Market-Implied US Inflation Expectations are derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and reflect the market’s consensus view of future inflation over different time horizons. These breakeven rates represent the difference between nominal Treasury yields and TIPS yields, providing real-time market expectations for inflation. The 5yr 5yr forward rate is particularly watched by the Fed as it reflects long-term inflation expectations stripped of near-term volatility.

Market-Implied US Inflation Expectations

Breakeven inflation rates from TIPS spreads (percent, annual rate)

Source: FRED (T5YIE, T10YIE, T5YIFR) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21
TipUnderstanding Inflation Expectations

5yr, 10yr Breakeven Rates: - Derived from TIPS vs nominal Treasury yield spreads - Represent market’s expected average inflation over the respective periods - Include inflation risk premium, so slightly higher than pure expectations

5yr 5yr Forward Breakeven: - Market’s expectation for average inflation 5-10 years from now - Strips out near-term inflation volatility - Closely monitored by the Federal Reserve as a gauge of long-term inflation credibility - Values consistently around 2% suggest well-anchored inflation expectations

Fed’s 2% Target: - The dashed red line shows the Fed’s symmetric 2% inflation target - Persistent deviations may signal monetary policy adjustments needed

6 Consumer Prices and Producer Prices

6.1 Core PCE Inflation

Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Inflation is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation for its monetary policy decisions. It excludes food and energy due to their volatility, focusing on underlying inflation trends. The Fed has established a 2% target for Core PCE inflation as part of its price stability mandate.

Core PCE Inflation

3-month percentage change, annualized • Fed Target: 2%

Source: FRED (PCEPILFE) • NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

6.2 CPI Shelter Inflation Measures

CPI Housing Inflation Measures are critical components of the Consumer Price Index, representing about one-third of the total CPI. CPI Rent measures rental costs for rented properties, while OER (Owners’ Equivalent Rent) captures housing costs for homeowners, based on what they would pay to rent their own homes. These indicators are fundamental for understanding housing-related inflationary pressures.

CPI Shelter Inflation Measures

Monthly percentage change • CPI Rent: rented properties • OER: imputed rent of owned homes

Source: FRED (CUSR0000SEHA, CUSR0000SEHC) • NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

6.3 Core PPI Inflation

Core PPI (Producer Price Index) Inflation measures changes in the prices received by domestic producers for their products, excluding food and energy. It is an important leading indicator of consumer inflation, as changes in producer costs often translate into changes in consumer prices. The PPI is useful for anticipating future inflationary pressures at the retail level.

Core PPI Inflation

3-month percentage change, annualized

Source: FRED (PPILFE) • NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

6.4 CPI Energy and Food Inflation

CPI Energy and Food Inflation shows the y/y change of specific CPI components that are highly volatile and directly impact household budgets. Electricity, Meats/Poultry/Fish, and Dairy are more stable components, while Gasoline is the most volatile component.

CPI Energy and Food Components (y/y % change)

Selected energy and food components (Stable: Electricity, Meats, Dairy | Volatile: Gasoline)

Source: FRED (Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Data) • Recession bars: NBER via FRED

CPI Energy and Food - Volatile Components (y/y % change)

Volatile energy and food components (Gasoline only)

Source: FRED (Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Data) • Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

7 Tariffs and Imports

NoteSection in Development

This section will be implemented with tariff and import data.

8 Shipping and Other Logistics

NoteSection in Development

This section will be implemented with shipping and logistics indicators.

9 Consumer Sentiment and Activity

9.1 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index measures household assessments of current conditions and expectations for future economic performance. The index aggregates roughly 500 responses each month and is benchmarked to 1966 = 100, making it a key leading signal for consumption trends.

Frequency: Monthly Units: Index (1966 = 100)

Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (All Tables) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:38

9.2 Expected Change in Unemployment

Expected Change in Unemployment captures households’ twelve-month outlook for joblessness. Positive values indicate that consumers expect unemployment to rise, while negative values signal confidence in labor market resilience.

Frequency: Monthly Units: Index (1966 = 100)

Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (All Tables) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:38

9.3 Probability of Real Income Gains During the Next 5 Years

Probability of Real Income Gains reports the share of households expecting their inflation-adjusted income to rise over the next five years. Elevated readings point to stronger medium-term spending power, while declines often precede pullbacks in durable goods demand.

Frequency: Monthly Units: Share of respondents (%)

Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers (All Tables) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:38

9.4 Credit Card Accounts Making the Minimum Payment

Source: FRED (RCCCBSHRMIN) - Federal Reserve Board | Recession bars: NBER via FRED

STATUS: Updated
Data refreshed at: 2025-09-28 13:08:38
TipUnderstanding Consumer Sentiment

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: - Measures consumer confidence in the U.S. economy - Based on monthly surveys of approximately 500 consumers - Indexed to 1966 = 100 as the base period - Higher values indicate greater consumer optimism - Strong predictor of consumer spending and economic activity - Closely watched by policymakers and investors

Key Components: - Current Economic Conditions (40% weight) - Expected Business Conditions (60% weight) - Includes expectations for personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions

Expected Change in Unemployment: - Measures consumer expectations for unemployment changes over the next year - Positive values indicate expectations of rising unemployment - Negative values indicate expectations of falling unemployment - Important leading indicator of labor market sentiment - Reflects consumer confidence in job market stability

Probability of Real Income Gains During the Next 5 Years: - Measures consumer expectations for real income improvements over 5-year horizon - Expressed as percentage probability (0-100%) - Higher values indicate greater optimism about future income growth - Important indicator of long-term consumer confidence - Reflects expectations about economic prosperity and personal financial well-being

Credit Card Accounts Making the Minimum Payment: - Share of consumer credit card accounts making only minimum payments - Expressed as percentage of total credit card accounts - Higher values indicate financial stress and constrained consumer spending - Important indicator of consumer financial health and debt burden - Rising trends often precede economic downturns or signal household financial distress

10 Markets

NoteSection in Development

This section will be implemented with market indicators.

11 Interest Rates

11.1 Federal Funds Rate

Federal Funds Rate is the overnight interest rate targeted by the Federal Reserve, anchoring short-term funding costs and influencing credit availability across the economy.

Frequency: Daily Units: Percent (%)

Source: FRED (DFF) | Recession bars: NBER via FRED (USRECM)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:41
TipUnderstanding Interest Rates

Federal Funds Rate: - The interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to other banks overnight - Set by the Federal Reserve as the primary tool of monetary policy - Influences all other interest rates in the economy - Higher rates generally slow economic growth and reduce inflation - Lower rates stimulate economic activity but can increase inflation risk

12 Capital Markets

12.1 US Equity Total Returns

US Equity Total Returns compares the performance of the S&P 500 index (as a proxy for S&P 500 ex Magnificent 7) with an equally weighted index of the Magnificent 7 (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, META). Returns are indexed to January 2025 (base = 0%) to show relative performance, with historical data since 2024.

US Equity Total Returns

Percentage return (index base January 2025 = 0%)

Source: Yahoo Finance (dividend-adjusted prices) | Magnificent 7: AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, META

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

12.2 US vs World Equity Total Returns

US vs World Equity Total Returns compares the relative performance of the US market (S&P 500) against international markets through two MSCI indices. Returns are calculated as differences (S&P 500 - MSCI), indexed to January 2025 (base = 0%). Positive values indicate US outperformance, negative values indicate underperformance.

US vs World Equity Relative Returns

Percentage differential (S&P 500 - MSCI, base January 2025 = 0%)

Source: Yahoo Finance | ACWX (iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF), XUSE/VEU (MSCI World ex US ETF)

STATUS: Updated
Fresh data from API at: 2025-09-28 13:08:21

13 Fiscal Data and Immigration

NoteSection in Development

This section will be implemented with fiscal and immigration data.

14 Oil and Gas Production, Business Surveys, Significant Rules, Earnings Expectations

NoteSection in Development

This section will be implemented with data on oil, gas, business surveys, significant rules, and earnings expectations.

15 Methodology and Technical Documentation

NoteDevelopment Methodology

This economic dashboard follows modern software development practices for quantitative finance and economic research. The implementation leverages contemporary tools and frameworks to ensure robust data processing and reliable analytical output.

15.0.1 Architecture Overview:

  • Modular R/Quarto Framework: Scalable data pipeline architecture with separation of concerns between data acquisition, processing, and visualization components
  • Multi-Source Integration: Standardized API connections to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), financial data providers, and Federal Reserve regional banks
  • Documentation Standards: Comprehensive methodological documentation following academic and industry best practices for economic research
  • Quality Assurance: Systematic testing protocols, data validation procedures, and performance monitoring systems
  • User Interface Design: Interactive visualization components with accessibility compliance and responsive design principles
  • Data Governance: Real-time status tracking, source attribution, and data lineage documentation

15.0.2 Technical Implementation:

  • Codebase: Over 5,000 lines of production-grade R code following industry standards
  • Caching Infrastructure: Intelligent data management system with configurable refresh intervals and fallback mechanisms
  • Error Handling: Comprehensive exception management ensuring system stability across varying data availability conditions
  • Standardization: Consistent formatting and presentation across 100+ economic indicators
  • Validation Framework: Multi-layered data quality checks with automatic anomaly detection

15.1 Technical Implementation

TipAdvanced Technical Implementation

15.1.1 System Architecture:

  • Data Management Layer: Centralized universal_cache() function providing consistent interface across all data sources (FRED, BLS, Yahoo Finance, web scraping APIs)
  • Configuration Management: System-wide control parameters including UPDATE_ALL_DATA, USE_CACHE_ONLY, FORCE_REFRESH_ALL, and granular source-specific settings
  • Metadata Tracking: Comprehensive logging system with data_load_times, synthetic_data_flags, and data_source_types for full data lineage
  • Status Monitoring: Real-time indicators displaying data freshness status (UPDATED/CACHED/SYNTHETIC) with complete source attribution

15.1.2 Data Processing Framework:

  • API Integration: Standardized connectors for multiple data providers with unified error handling and response processing
  • Fault Tolerance: Comprehensive exception handling ensuring system availability during API outages or data anomalies
  • Fallback Systems: Hierarchical data availability with proper flagging when switching to cached or synthetic data
  • Time Series Processing: Standardized temporal alignment with automatic recession period overlay integration

15.1.3 Presentation Layer:

  • Formatting Standards: Consistent styling and source attribution across economic indicators
  • Interactive Components: Professional-grade DT tables with multi-format export capabilities and responsive layout
  • Visualization Framework: ggplot2-based charting system with NBER recession shading, standardized color palette, and responsive scaling
  • Accessibility Compliance: Screen reader support and keyboard navigation following WCAG guidelines

15.1.4 Performance Engineering:

  • Caching Strategy: Multi-tier cache hierarchy reducing external API dependencies
  • Component Architecture: Modular design with reusable functions for charting, data processing, and table generation
  • Resource Management: Optimized memory usage patterns and efficient garbage collection
  • Concurrent Processing: Asynchronous API calls where feasible to minimize total load times

15.1.5 Reliability Engineering:

  • Graceful Degradation: System maintains functionality during partial data source failures
  • Audit Trail: Comprehensive logging and error reporting throughout the data processing pipeline
  • Quality Assurance: Multi-layer data validation with integrity checks and consistency verification
  • Backup Mechanisms: Automatic failover between live data, cached data, and fallback alternatives

15.1.6 Extensibility Design:

  • Modular Framework: Plugin architecture for adding new data sources and economic indicators
  • Parameter Management: Centralized configuration system for system-wide behavioral adjustments
  • Version Control: Git-optimized structure with comprehensive documentation and change tracking
  • Platform Independence: Cross-platform compatibility across Windows, macOS, and Linux environments

15.2 Calculations and Transformations

ImportantStatistical Methodology

15.2.1 Time Series Transformations:

  • Moving Averages (3-month): Applied to payroll changes, unemployment rates (Sahm Rule calculation), and wage growth indicators
  • Moving Averages (12-month): Used in rolling window minimum calculations for recession indicators

15.2.2 Growth Rate Calculations:

  • Month-over-month: (X_t / X_{t-1}) - 1
  • Year-over-year: (X_t / X_{t-12}) - 1
  • Quarterly annualized: ((X_t / X_{t-1})^4) - 1

15.2.3 Composite Index Construction:

  • Sahm Rule Gap: MA3(U_t) - min(MA3(U_{t-12:t}))
  • Weekly Economic Index: Nowcasting model scaled to quarterly GDP growth
  • GDPNow: Atlanta Fed real-time GDP estimate using 13 monthly indicators
  • Labor Demand Index: Sum of total employment and job openings

15.3 Data Sources and Technical Infrastructure

15.4 Data Infrastructure

15.4.1 Primary Data Sources:

  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): Macroeconomic time series including GDP, employment, inflation, and financial indicators (40+ series)
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Labor market statistics, wage indices, and consumer price data via official API
  • Yahoo Finance API: Equity market data with dividend adjustments for domestic and international indices
  • Atlanta Federal Reserve: GDPNow nowcasting model and Wage Growth Tracker microdata analysis
  • Dallas Federal Reserve: Weekly Economic Index for high-frequency economic monitoring
  • University of Michigan: Consumer sentiment surveys and inflation expectations
  • YCharts/Trading Economics: Manufacturing survey data via web scraping protocols
  • NBER: Official recession chronology and business cycle dating methodology

15.4.2 Data Quality Assurance:

  • Real-Time Validation: Automatic data structure and integrity verification
  • Source Tracking: Complete lineage documentation for every data point
  • Synthetic Data Management: Clearly flagged synthetic/cached data with user notifications
  • Revision Handling: Proper management of data revisions and historical updates
WarningTechnical Limitations and Considerations

15.4.3 Data Revisions and Timing:

  • BLS Employment Data: Subject to monthly revisions for up to 24 months
  • GDP Statistics: Initial estimates revised quarterly, with annual comprehensive revisions
  • Real-time vs Current: Significant differences between preliminary and final data releases
  • Sahm Rule Calculation: Based on 3-month moving averages with inherent 1-month lag

15.4.4 Methodological Considerations:

  • WGT vs ECI: Different wage measurement approaches (individual vs. employer perspective)
  • Seasonal Adjustment: All data seasonally adjusted when available from source agencies
  • Frequency Alignment: Monthly, quarterly, and weekly data appropriately synchronized
  • Index Base Periods: Multiple base years across different indicators require careful interpretation

15.4.5 System Dependencies:

  • API Limitations: Rate limits and potential service interruptions from data providers
  • Web Scraping Risks: Structure changes may affect YCharts data extraction
  • Cache Dependencies: Local cache performance may vary based on system resources
  • Network Requirements: Stable internet connection required for real-time updates

15.5 Bibliography and Resources

NoteReferences and Data Sources

15.5.1 Foundational Economic Research:

  • Sahm, C. (2019). “Direct Stimulus Payments to Individuals.” Brookings Institution - Origin of the Sahm Rule recession indicator
  • Aruoba, S.B., Diebold, F.X., Scotti, C. (2009). “Real-time measurement of business conditions.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics - Real-time economic nowcasting methodology
  • Lewis, D.J., Mertens, K., Stock, J.H. (2020). “U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak.” Dallas Fed Working Paper - Weekly Economic Index development
  • Cajner, T., Crane, L.D., Decker, R.A., et al. (2020). “The U.S. Labor Market during the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

15.5.2 Federal Reserve System Resources:

15.5.3 Government Statistical Agencies:

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics: bls.gov - Employment, wages, and price statistics
  • Bureau of Economic Analysis: bea.gov - GDP, personal income, and trade data
  • Census Bureau: census.gov - Demographic and economic census data
  • Treasury Department: treasury.gov - Financial markets and fiscal data

15.5.4 International and Market Data:

  • Yahoo Finance API: Real-time and historical financial market data
  • Trading Economics: tradingeconomics.com - Global economic indicators
  • YCharts: ycharts.com - Financial data and economic analysis platform
  • University of Michigan: Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations surveys

15.5.5 Official Methodologies and Standards:

15.5.6 Technical Implementation Resources:

  • R Statistical Computing: r-project.org - Primary analytical platform
  • Quarto Publishing System: quarto.org - Dynamic document generation
  • tidyverse Ecosystem: tidyverse.org - Data manipulation and visualization frameworks
  • ggplot2 Documentation: Grammar of graphics implementation for R

15.6 Technical Glossary

15.6.1 Recession and Business Cycle Indicators:

  • Sahm Rule: Automatic recession signal triggered when 3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.5+ percentage points above its 12-month minimum
  • IURSA (Insured Unemployment Rate SA): Seasonally adjusted rate for workers eligible for unemployment insurance, more volatile but timelier than U3
  • NBER Recession Dating: Official methodology using six indicators: employment, industrial production, real income, wholesale-retail sales, GDP, and GDI
  • Real-time vs Current Sahm: Real-time uses unrevised data (as available historically), Current uses fully revised data

15.6.2 Labor Market Dynamics:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: Monthly change in total employees excluding farm workers, private household employees, and military personnel
  • U3 (Official Unemployment Rate): Unemployed as percentage of labor force (employed + unemployed actively seeking work)
  • U6 (Broad Unemployment): Includes U3 plus marginally attached workers and part-time workers for economic reasons
  • JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey): Monthly data on job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and other separations
  • Labor Force Participation Rate: Percentage of civilian noninstitutional population aged 16+ in the labor force
  • Quit Rate: Percentage of workers voluntarily leaving jobs monthly, indicator of labor market confidence
  • Job Openings Rate: Job openings as percentage of total employment plus job openings
  • Labor Demand: Total employment plus job openings, representing economy’s total need for workers
  • Labor Supply: Total labor force (employed + unemployed actively seeking work)

15.6.3 Wage and Earnings Metrics:

  • Average Weekly Earnings: Average hourly earnings × average weekly hours for all private nonfarm employees
  • Wage Growth Tracker (WGT): Atlanta Fed measure of individual worker year-over-year wage changes using CPS microdata
  • Employment Cost Index (ECI): BLS measure of total compensation costs (wages + benefits) for employers
  • Job Switchers Premium: Difference in wage growth between workers who changed jobs vs. those who stayed

15.6.4 Inflation and Price Measures:

  • Core PCE Inflation: Personal Consumption Expenditures price index excluding food and energy, Fed’s preferred inflation measure
  • CPI Shelter: Housing component (~33% of CPI) including rent of primary residence and owners’ equivalent rent (OER)
  • Core PPI: Producer Price Index excluding food and energy, measuring wholesale/producer-level inflation
  • Breakeven Inflation Rates: Market-implied inflation expectations derived from TIPS vs nominal Treasury yield spreads
  • 5yr 5yr Forward: Market expectation for average inflation 5-10 years ahead, closely watched by Fed for inflation credibility

15.6.5 Manufacturing and Production:

  • ISM Manufacturing PMI: Composite index of manufacturing conditions based on new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories
  • ISM New Orders: Forward-looking component measuring new orders received by manufacturers (>50 = expansion)
  • ISM Manufacturing Inventories: Current inventory levels at manufacturing companies (>50 = inventories growing)
  • ISM Customer Inventories: Inverted indicator of customer inventory levels (<50 = low inventories = potential future demand)
  • Industrial Production Index: Real output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors (base: 2017=100)
  • Durable Goods Orders: New orders for goods with expected lifespan ≥3 years, leading indicator of business investment

15.6.6 High-Frequency Economic Indicators:

  • Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Dallas Fed index combining 10 daily/weekly indicators, scaled to 4-quarter real GDP growth
  • GDP Now: Atlanta Fed nowcasting model providing real-time estimates of current quarter real GDP growth using 13 subcomponents
  • Consumer Sentiment Index: University of Michigan monthly survey measuring consumer confidence (base: 1966=100)

15.6.7 Financial and Market Indicators:

  • Federal Funds Rate: Interest rate for overnight interbank lending, Fed’s primary monetary policy tool
  • Yield Curve: Relationship between interest rates and bond maturities, inverted curve often signals recession
  • Credit Card Minimum Payments: Share of accounts making only minimum payments, indicator of financial stress

15.6.8 Technical System Components:

  • Universal Cache System: Centralized caching mechanism supporting all data sources with TTL and refresh controls
  • Synthetic Data Flags: System tracking which indicators use fallback/synthetic data when APIs are unavailable
  • Data Load Times: Timestamp tracking for cache management and data freshness verification
  • Source Attribution: Complete lineage tracking linking each data point to its originating API/source
  • Status Indicators: Real-time HTML badges showing UPDATED/CACHED/SYNTHETIC status for each chart
  • Graceful Degradation: System design ensuring functionality even with partial data source failures

16 Acknowledgments

NoteSpecial Thanks

Special acknowledgment to Manoela Calheiros for her invaluable assistance in data selection and source identification.

This document is automatically updated with the latest data available from official sources. For technical questions or suggestions for improvement, please consult the full methodological documentation.