A World Turning

A World Turning: The 2010-2024 Democratic Backdrop

Take-aways

• Global democracy has fallen back to mid-1980s levels for the average person.
• The downturn is part of a 25-year “third wave of autoactivation.”
• Large countries drive most of the change.

V-Dem’s Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) combines free elections, civil liberties, and checks on power. By 2024, the country-average LDI equalled 1996 levels; the population-weighted level matched 1985; GDP-weighted democracy reached its lowest in 50 years. This is no blip but a sustained reversal.

Huge states shape the trend. India moved from electoral democracy to electoral autocracy between 2017 and 2019; Indonesia entered the autocratic “grey zone” in 2024. Even established democracies like the USA show measurable declines. When populous or wealthy countries slide, global averages tumble.

Researched and engineered at Decision Analytics Hub
by Mauricio Claudio | DecisionAnalyticsHub@proton.me

Autocracy Ascendant

Autocracy Ascendant: The Balance Tips

Take-aways

• Autocracies now outnumber democracies worldwide.
• Liberal democracies have shrunk to 29 countries.
• 72 % of people live under some form of autocracy.

In 2024, the world had 91 autocracies and 88 democracies. Only 29 were liberal democracies, hosting less than 12 % of the global population, while 72 % live under autocracy. This reverses the early-2000s pattern, when liberal democracy was expanding in every region.

Fewer liberal democracies means weaker collective influence in international bodies, trade agreements and norms around media and elections.

Regional Stories

Regional Stories: Diverging Paths

Take-aways

• Eastern Europe and South Asia show steep declines.
  
• MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa are overwhelmingly autocratic.
  
• Only Western Europe/North America remain mostly liberal democratic.

Regional variation is stark.

• Eastern Europe: 65 % now in electoral autocracies; Belarus is Europe’s first closed autocracy in 25 years.
• South & Central Asia: 93 % under electoral autocracy.
• MENA: 98 % autocratic; only Israel remains an electoral democracy.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: coups in Niger and Gabon push the region back to its 2000 democratic level.
• Latin America: still majority electoral democracies but Mexico, Argentina and Peru slide;
• South Africa regained liberal-democracy status in 2024.
• Western Europe/North America: 82 % liberal democracies but early warning signs in USA, Cyprus, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal.

Who Lives Where

Who Lives Where: People Under Different Regimes

Take-aways

• Counting people reveals a sharper shift than counting countries.
• Nearly three-quarters of humanity live under autocracy.
• India and Indonesia alone altered global numbers dramatically.

By 2024, 46 % of humanity lived in electoral autocracies, 25 % in closed autocracies, 17 % in electoral democracies, and 12 % in liberal democracies. India’s slide between 2017 and 2019 removed 1.4 billion people from the democracy column; Indonesia’s move in 2024 added 270 million more. Closed autocracies like China, Myanmar and Vietnam now cover over two billion people.

Democracy’s Economic Decline

Democracy’s Economic Decline: A GDP Analysis

• Democracy has lost unprecedented economic influence, reaching its lowest level by GDP in over 50 years.
• The rise of China combined with democratic decline creates a dual threat to democracy’s global economic power.
• Large, wealthy countries drive most of the democratic recession, magnifying its impact on international systems.

The GDP of democracy presents the most alarming picture of democratic decline globally. By 2024, democracy’s economic influence had fallen to its lowest point in over half a century, representing a 25-year downward trajectory.

This dramatic decline reflects two converging forces: autocratic China’s extraordinary economic rise and simultaneous democratic weakening in economically powerful nations. Even excluding China, the GDP by democracy level has retreated to 1980 levels, showing China’s growth alone cannot explain this phenomenon.

The concentration of decline among large, influential countries amplifies global impact. When populous, nations like India, Indonesia and the U.S. move toward autocracy, democracy’s economic weight shrinks, eroding influence in multilateral cooperation, trade agreements and global norms.

Autocratizing Countries

Autocratizing Countries: Democracy Under Siege

Take-aways

• 45 countries are currently autocratizing, affecting 3.1 billion people (38% of world population)
• Two-thirds of autocratizing countries began as democracies, with a 67% “fatality rate”
• Media censorship is autocratizers’ weapon of choice, followed by undermining elections and repressing civil society

The wave of autocratization continues to engulf an unprecedented number of countries. The “third wave” of autocratization is still rising after at least 25 years, with almost 40% of the world population living in autocratizing countries-3.1 billion people. This represents a dramatic increase from just 7% in 2004.

Of the 45 autocratizers, 27 were democracies at the start of their episode. Of these, only 9 remain democracies in 2024, yielding a fatality rate of 67%. Large influential countries drive much of this trend, including India, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Korea, while even established democracies show concerning signs.

Democratizing Countries

Democratizing Countries: Sparks of Democratic Revival

Take-aways

• Only 19 countries are democratizing, representing just 6% of world population (452 million people)
• Three-quarters of autocracies that begin democratizing successfully transition to democracy
• Freedom of expression and rule of law show the strongest improvements during democratization

Countries with less than 6% of the world population-or 452 million-are democratizing. Recent examples include U-turns by Brazil, Poland and Thailand which have begun to reverse previous autocratization episodes. This represents a stark contrast to the 3.1 billion people living under autocratization.

The success rate for democratization offers hope. Of the 19 democratizers, 12 started as autocracies, and 9 of these transitioned to democracy, a “success rate” of 75%. This suggests that when autocratic countries begin liberalizing, they often complete the transition successfully. South Africa returned to liberal democracy, demonstrating that democratic recovery is possible despite global headwinds.

Power Shifts, Freedom Shrinks

Power Shifts, Freedom Shrinks: Global Democracy 2010-2024

Between 2010 and 2024 the world experienced a sustained democratic recession. By 2024 the average person’s level of democracy had fallen back to mid-1980s levels, while country averages matched 1996 and democracy’s economic strength hit a 50-year low.

The “third wave” of autocratization accelerated, shifting almost 3.1 billion people into autocratizing states. Autocracies overtook democracies for the first time in two decades: 91 versus 88, with only 29 liberal democracies left, hosting less than 12 percent of the world’s population.

India’s 2017-2019 descent and Indonesia’s 2024 slide reshaped global totals, while even established democracies like the United States registered measurable decline. Regional patterns diverged sharply-Eastern Europe and South Asia steeply autocratized, MENA remained overwhelmingly autocratic, and Western Europe/North America showed early warning signs.

Yet pockets of resilience appeared: Brazil, Thailand and South Africa reversed previous backsliding, demonstrating that democratic recovery remains possible despite global headwinds