3,143 counties in the US, we have 3,111

What % of time does Trump win [ County ] :

## Biden Trump 
## 0.167 0.833

2020, Election Context :

1. Core Election Results

  • The 2020 U.S. presidential election was held on November 3, 2020.
  • Joe Biden (Democrat) defeated Donald Trump (Republican) with 306 to 232 electoral votes and a 51.3% to 46.8% popular vote split.
  • Voter turnout was the highest since 1900 at 66.6%.
  • Biden’s key victories came in the Rust Belt swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) that flipped from Trump in 2016.

2. Major Issues Affecting Voter Behavior

  • COVID-19 pandemic: central political and social issue; led to record early and mail-in voting in 38 states.
  • Civil unrest: George Floyd protests and broader racial justice movements shaped political attitudes.
  • Supreme Court battle: the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett polarized voters.
  • Healthcare policy: the Affordable Care Act was a major issue in debates and campaigns.

3. Campaign Dynamics

  • Trump emphasized in-person rallies despite COVID risks; Biden’s campaign leaned on virtual events and safety messaging.
  • Mail-in ballots created reporting delays in several battleground states.
  • Both parties mobilized strongly around voting rights and election security, including disputes over mail-in voting.

4. Other Context from 2020

  • The year was dominated by COVID-19 disruptions, economic recession, and social unrest.
  • These crises influenced turnout patterns, partisan divides, and the urban–rural split in voting behavior.

National Vote :

True amount that Year : Biden 51.3%, Trump 46.8%

## # A tibble: 2 × 4
##   winner    votes     total share
##   <chr>     <int>     <int> <dbl>
## 1 Biden  65152080 114054347  0.57
## 2 Trump  48902267 114054347  0.43
## Err :
##  Biden  Trump 
##  0.057 -0.038

Modeling :