1 Load GSS data

Data source: gss.norc.org

df_2024 <-
  gss_get_yr(2024) %>%
  remove_empty() %>% 
  remove_constant()

gssrdoc::gss_dict %>% select(variable, var_type, label, var_text) %>% datatable(filter = 'top')

Sample values of shortlisted variables from the 2024 GSS survey (n = 3309):

df_2024 <-
  df_2024 %>% 
  transmute(
    trump_rating = as.integer(ratechall124),
    conservative = if_else(as.integer(polviews) > 4, 1L, 0L) %>% replace_na(0L),
    age = as.integer(age),
    educ = as.integer(educ),
    income = as.integer(income16),
    children = as.integer(childs),
    mother_degree = as.integer(madeg),
    father_degree = as.integer(padeg),
    female = if_else(sex == 2, 1L, 0L) %>% replace_na(0L),
    white = if_else(race == 1, 1L, 0L) %>% replace_na(0L),
    married = if_else(marital == 1, 1L, 0L) %>% replace_na(0L),
    born_us = if_else(born == 1, 1L, 0L) %>% replace_na(0L),
  ) %>% 
  mutate(across(where(is.numeric), ~ if_else(is.na(.), round(mean(., na.rm = TRUE)), .)))

df_2024 %>% sample_n(10)

Dependent variable trump_rating on a 0-100 scale:

df_2024 %>%
  ggplot(aes(trump_rating)) +
  geom_histogram(bins = 10) +
  theme_ipsum()

df_2024 %>% select(trump_rating) %>% skim()

Data summary
Name	Piped data
Number of rows	3309
Number of columns	1
_______________________
Column type frequency:
numeric	1
________________________
Group variables	None

Variable type: numeric

skim_variable	n_missing	complete_rate	mean	sd	p0	p25	p50	p75	p100	hist
trump_rating	0	1	38.9	35.8	0	0	39	70	100	▇▂▃▂▃

Independent variable conservative as 0/1:

df_2024 %>% tabyl(conservative)

Question: Is there heterogeneity in conservative support Trump?

2 Traditional approach

2.1 No controls

Let us start with a model with just the dependent and independent variable.

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	27.18^***
	(0.66)
conservative	35.82^***
	(1.18)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.62
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.2 Age

Let’s add age as a control and an interaction.

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + age, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	36.21^***
	(1.65)
conservative	36.73^***
	(1.19)
age	-0.19^***
	(0.03)
R²	0.23
Adj. R²	0.23
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.46
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * age, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	41.09^***
	(1.91)
conservative	20.70^***
	(3.65)
age	-0.29^***
	(0.04)
conservative:age	0.31^***
	(0.07)
R²	0.23
Adj. R²	0.23
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.36
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.3 Education

Adding education as a control and an interaction.

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + educ, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	52.06^***
	(2.91)
conservative	35.53^***
	(1.19)
educ	-1.74^***
	(0.19)
R²	0.24
Adj. R²	0.24
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.21
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * educ, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	66.23^***
	(3.42)
conservative	-10.78
	(6.20)
educ	-2.74^***
	(0.22)
conservative:educ	3.27^***
	(0.42)
R²	0.26
Adj. R²	0.25
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	30.91
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.4 Income

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + income, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	35.95^***
	(1.87)
conservative	36.25^***
	(1.19)
income	-0.49^***
	(0.09)
R²	0.23
Adj. R²	0.23
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.49
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * income, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	43.85^***
	(2.07)
conservative	6.14
	(4.40)
income	-0.93^***
	(0.10)
conservative:income	1.62^***
	(0.22)
R²	0.24
Adj. R²	0.24
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.19
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.5 Female

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + female, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	29.68^***
	(0.94)
conservative	35.47^***
	(1.19)
female	-4.34^***
	(1.11)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.55
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * female, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	29.63^***
	(1.05)
conservative	35.62^***
	(1.66)
female	-4.24^**
	(1.35)
conservative:female	-0.28
	(2.37)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.55
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.6 White

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + white, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	25.19^***
	(1.01)
conservative	35.33^***
	(1.22)
white	3.12^*
	(1.25)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.59
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * white, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	29.45^***
	(1.05)
conservative	15.57^***
	(2.67)
white	-3.57^**
	(1.35)
conservative:white	26.18^***
	(2.98)
R²	0.24
Adj. R²	0.24
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.16
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.7 Married

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + married, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	27.06^***
	(0.78)
conservative	35.78^***
	(1.20)
married	0.33
	(1.13)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.62
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * married,
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	28.18^***
	(0.84)
conservative	31.69^***
	(1.67)
married	-2.74^*
	(1.38)
conservative:married	8.91^***
	(2.39)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.56
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.8 Children

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + children, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	26.01^***
	(0.84)
conservative	35.51^***
	(1.19)
children	0.73^*
	(0.34)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.60
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * children,
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	25.08^***
	(0.90)
conservative	38.90^***
	(1.78)
children	1.30^**
	(0.40)
conservative:children	-1.78^*
	(0.73)
R²	0.22
Adj. R²	0.22
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.57
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.9 Father highest degree

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + father_degree, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	32.04^***
	(0.91)
conservative	35.60^***
	(1.18)
father_degree	-3.93^***
	(0.42)
R²	0.24
Adj. R²	0.24
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.30
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * father_degree,
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	33.61^***
	(0.98)
conservative	30.85^***
	(1.74)
father_degree	-5.19^***
	(0.48)
conservative:father_degree	3.96^***
	(0.95)
R²	0.24
Adj. R²	0.24
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.23
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.10 Mother highest degree

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + mother_degree, 
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	30.75^***
	(0.93)
conservative	35.47^***
	(1.18)
mother_degree	-2.80^***
	(0.46)
R²	0.23
Adj. R²	0.23
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.46
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * mother_degree,
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	31.94^***
	(0.99)
conservative	31.42^***
	(1.82)
mother_degree	-3.74^***
	(0.52)
conservative:mother_degree	3.42^**
	(1.09)
R²	0.23
Adj. R²	0.23
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	31.42
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

2.11 Combined model

No interactions:

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative + age + educ + income + female + white + father_degree + mother_degree + married + children,
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, omit.coef = "(Intercept)", digits = 3)

Statistical models
	Model 1
conservative	34.630^***
	(1.238)
age	-0.280^***
	(0.033)
educ	-1.006^***
	(0.214)
income	-0.316^**
	(0.107)
female	-4.942^***
	(1.089)
white	7.732^***
	(1.278)
father_degree	-2.946^***
	(0.520)
mother_degree	-1.272^*
	(0.569)
married	2.272
	(1.196)
children	0.957^**
	(0.360)
R²	0.274
Adj. R²	0.271
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	30.560
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

With interactions:

df_2024 %>%
  lm_robust(
    trump_rating ~ conservative * income * age * educ * female * white * father_degree * mother_degree * married * children,
    data = .) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, digits = 2)

Statistical models
	Model 1
(Intercept)	88.07
conservative	-608.37
income	3.29
age	-0.57
educ	-5.43
female	230.76
white	184.05
father_degree	-44.31
mother_degree	58.90
married	171.49
children	-287.74
conservative:income	-178.25
conservative:age	-489.25
income:age	-0.03
conservative:educ	-5.69
income:educ	-0.11
age:educ	0.05
conservative:female	4804.79
income:female	-19.74
age:female	-3.45
educ:female	-21.57
conservative:white
income:white	-11.34
age:white	-2.61
educ:white	-10.51
female:white	-556.99
conservative:father_degree	-7616.13
income:father_degree	1.86
age:father_degree	-0.77
educ:father_degree	3.92
female:father_degree	-40.94
white:father_degree	-99.51
conservative:mother_degree	1073.82
income:mother_degree	-1.71
age:mother_degree	-1.69
educ:mother_degree	1.29
female:mother_degree	-25.89
white:mother_degree	-221.36
father_degree:mother_degree	-95.10
conservative:married
income:married	-15.33
age:married	7.81
educ:married	-9.54
female:married	699.73
white:married	-313.95
father_degree:married	-742.49
mother_degree:married	3850.75
conservative:children	-2901.15
income:children	12.11
age:children	3.82
educ:children	29.95
female:children	195.33
white:children	-602.13
father_degree:children	583.79
mother_degree:children	-151.27
married:children	284.70
conservative:income:age	29.35
conservative:income:educ	32.99
conservative:age:educ	40.67
income:age:educ	-0.00
conservative:income:female	-114.04
conservative:age:female	403.52
income:age:female	0.24
conservative:educ:female	-343.67
income:educ:female	1.62
age:educ:female	0.40
conservative:income:white	212.84
conservative:age:white	502.74
income:age:white	0.15
conservative:educ:white	42.92
income:educ:white	0.66
age:educ:white	0.17
conservative:female:white	-3343.24
income:female:white	36.11
age:female:white	9.38
educ:female:white	38.19
conservative:income:father_degree	89.07
conservative:age:father_degree	607.48
income:age:father_degree	-0.01
conservative:educ:father_degree	1011.25
income:educ:father_degree	-0.17
age:educ:father_degree	0.07
conservative:female:father_degree	-843.62
income:female:father_degree	3.22
age:female:father_degree	1.39
educ:female:father_degree	6.85
conservative:white:father_degree	8214.47
income:white:father_degree	5.34
age:white:father_degree	4.51
educ:white:father_degree	5.74
female:white:father_degree	328.96
conservative:income:mother_degree	175.69
conservative:age:mother_degree	347.95
income:age:mother_degree	0.03
conservative:educ:mother_degree	-51.55
income:educ:mother_degree	-0.08
age:educ:mother_degree	0.01
conservative:female:mother_degree
income:female:mother_degree	-0.26
age:female:mother_degree	0.89
educ:female:mother_degree	-5.85
conservative:white:mother_degree
income:white:mother_degree	11.38
age:white:mother_degree	4.02
educ:white:mother_degree	10.23
female:white:mother_degree	480.46
conservative:father_degree:mother_degree	-12972.05
income:father_degree:mother_degree	0.59
age:father_degree:mother_degree	3.09
educ:father_degree:mother_degree	3.66
female:father_degree:mother_degree	43.67
white:father_degree:mother_degree	176.96
conservative:income:married	-41.22
conservative:age:married	105.82
income:age:married	-0.21
conservative:educ:married
income:educ:married	0.87
age:educ:married	-0.66
conservative:female:married
income:female:married	-26.50
age:female:married	-22.66
educ:female:married	-24.04
conservative:white:married	663.10
income:white:married	33.72
age:white:married	-2.04
educ:white:married	23.28
female:white:married	-812.41
conservative:father_degree:married
income:father_degree:married	43.90
age:father_degree:married	3.41
educ:father_degree:married	67.80
female:father_degree:married	-942.75
white:father_degree:married	568.68
conservative:mother_degree:married
income:mother_degree:married	-177.13
age:mother_degree:married	-87.55
educ:mother_degree:married	-266.05
female:mother_degree:married	-4692.47
white:mother_degree:married	-2681.01
father_degree:mother_degree:married	-3137.92
conservative:income:children	-1004.26
conservative:age:children	271.51
income:age:children	-0.15
conservative:educ:children	150.88
income:educ:children	-1.36
age:educ:children	-0.41
conservative:female:children	-688.00
income:female:children	-1.30
age:female:children	-2.52
educ:female:children	-20.98
conservative:white:children	3117.00
income:white:children	25.68
age:white:children	8.07
educ:white:children	44.61
female:white:children	674.96
conservative:father_degree:children	467.81
income:father_degree:children	-36.63
age:father_degree:children	-9.17
educ:father_degree:children	-52.93
female:father_degree:children	-616.89
white:father_degree:children	-312.53
conservative:mother_degree:children	11035.81
income:mother_degree:children	23.65
age:mother_degree:children	4.18
educ:mother_degree:children	4.56
female:mother_degree:children	237.60
white:mother_degree:children	1088.45
father_degree:mother_degree:children	-68.60
conservative:married:children
income:married:children	-8.46
age:married:children	-3.00
educ:married:children	-37.07
female:married:children	-426.70
white:married:children	449.96
father_degree:married:children	48.41
mother_degree:married:children	-879.40
conservative:income:age:educ	-2.81
conservative:income:age:female	-23.67
conservative:income:educ:female	-8.72
conservative:age:educ:female	-33.55
income:age:educ:female	-0.03
conservative:income:age:white	-30.15
conservative:income:educ:white	-34.98
conservative:age:educ:white	-41.62
income:age:educ:white	-0.01
conservative:income:female:white	29.85
conservative:age:female:white	-428.54
income:age:female:white	-0.57
conservative:educ:female:white	246.34
income:educ:female:white	-2.41
age:educ:female:white	-0.68
conservative:income:age:father_degree	-19.25
conservative:income:educ:father_degree	-36.29
conservative:age:educ:father_degree	-59.73
income:age:educ:father_degree	-0.00
conservative:income:female:father_degree	419.45
conservative:age:female:father_degree	-443.77
income:age:female:father_degree	-0.04
conservative:educ:female:father_degree	-339.84
income:educ:female:father_degree	-0.36
age:educ:female:father_degree	-0.23
conservative:income:white:father_degree	-121.67
conservative:age:white:father_degree	-627.41
income:age:white:father_degree	-0.18
conservative:educ:white:father_degree	-1054.51
income:educ:white:father_degree	-0.33
age:educ:white:father_degree	-0.32
conservative:female:white:father_degree
income:female:white:father_degree	-17.58
age:female:white:father_degree	-8.18
educ:female:white:father_degree	-22.68
conservative:income:age:mother_degree	-21.96
conservative:income:educ:mother_degree	-31.67
conservative:age:educ:mother_degree	-27.53
income:age:educ:mother_degree	0.00
conservative:income:female:mother_degree	-2526.89
conservative:age:female:mother_degree	-303.51
income:age:female:mother_degree	-0.03
conservative:educ:female:mother_degree	182.07
income:educ:female:mother_degree	0.34
age:educ:female:mother_degree	0.10
conservative:income:white:mother_degree	-229.00
conservative:age:white:mother_degree	-363.86
income:age:white:mother_degree	-0.18
conservative:educ:white:mother_degree	-24.78
income:educ:white:mother_degree	-0.61
age:educ:white:mother_degree	-0.19
conservative:female:white:mother_degree	-1535.68
income:female:white:mother_degree	-24.82
age:female:white:mother_degree	-9.30
educ:female:white:mother_degree	-25.41
conservative:income:father_degree:mother_degree	895.17
conservative:age:father_degree:mother_degree	12.04
income:age:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.02
conservative:educ:father_degree:mother_degree	647.93
income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree	0.06
age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.15
conservative:female:father_degree:mother_degree	14950.33
income:female:father_degree:mother_degree	2.92
age:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-1.86
educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.29
conservative:white:father_degree:mother_degree	12476.66
income:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-5.63
age:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-5.05
educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-9.40
female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-234.38
conservative:income:age:married	-21.14
conservative:income:educ:married	-342.72
conservative:age:educ:married	21.82
income:age:educ:married	0.02
conservative:income:female:married
conservative:age:female:married	80.08
income:age:female:married	0.96
conservative:educ:female:married
income:educ:female:married	0.71
age:educ:female:married	1.24
conservative:income:white:married
conservative:age:white:married	-126.15
income:age:white:married	-0.32
conservative:educ:white:married	-40.66
income:educ:white:married	-2.14
age:educ:white:married	0.20
conservative:female:white:married	-4063.56
income:female:white:married	24.38
age:female:white:married	35.93
educ:female:white:married	30.18
conservative:income:father_degree:married	36.58
conservative:age:father_degree:married	19.67
income:age:father_degree:married	-0.31
conservative:educ:father_degree:married
income:educ:father_degree:married	-3.43
age:educ:father_degree:married	-0.53
conservative:female:father_degree:married	3704.78
income:female:father_degree:married	11.61
age:female:father_degree:married	26.14
educ:female:father_degree:married	28.19
conservative:white:father_degree:married	-521.10
income:white:father_degree:married	-42.83
age:white:father_degree:married	-6.56
educ:white:father_degree:married	-51.32
female:white:father_degree:married	848.30
conservative:income:mother_degree:married	117.39
conservative:age:mother_degree:married
income:age:mother_degree:married	4.06
conservative:educ:mother_degree:married	186.47
income:educ:mother_degree:married	11.96
age:educ:mother_degree:married	6.06
conservative:female:mother_degree:married
income:female:mother_degree:married	291.49
age:female:mother_degree:married	109.36
educ:female:mother_degree:married	284.44
conservative:white:mother_degree:married	-2697.54
income:white:mother_degree:married	117.97
age:white:mother_degree:married	68.78
educ:white:mother_degree:married	187.09
female:white:mother_degree:married	3608.34
conservative:father_degree:mother_degree:married	1331.37
income:father_degree:mother_degree:married	146.50
age:father_degree:mother_degree:married	72.58
educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	204.75
female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	5517.95
white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	2653.34
conservative:income:age:children	4.74
conservative:income:educ:children	49.55
conservative:age:educ:children	-22.27
income:age:educ:children	0.02
conservative:income:female:children	1254.41
conservative:age:female:children	-211.69
income:age:female:children	-0.01
conservative:educ:female:children	144.93
income:educ:female:children	0.45
age:educ:female:children	0.26
conservative:income:white:children	994.46
conservative:age:white:children	-272.12
income:age:white:children	-0.38
conservative:educ:white:children	-168.94
income:educ:white:children	-1.78
age:educ:white:children	-0.58
conservative:female:white:children
income:female:white:children	-33.67
age:female:white:children	-9.83
educ:female:white:children	-48.31
conservative:income:father_degree:children	1008.45
conservative:age:father_degree:children	-131.46
income:age:father_degree:children	0.58
conservative:educ:father_degree:children	-769.13
income:educ:father_degree:children	3.34
age:educ:father_degree:children	0.82
conservative:female:father_degree:children	4335.54
income:female:father_degree:children	34.86
age:female:father_degree:children	9.63
educ:female:father_degree:children	53.62
conservative:white:father_degree:children
income:white:father_degree:children	32.55
age:white:father_degree:children	9.91
educ:white:father_degree:children	23.26
female:white:father_degree:children	301.72
conservative:income:mother_degree:children	2148.56
conservative:age:mother_degree:children	-611.97
income:age:mother_degree:children	-0.47
conservative:educ:mother_degree:children	-1015.57
income:educ:mother_degree:children	-1.28
age:educ:mother_degree:children	-0.19
conservative:female:mother_degree:children	-12003.19
income:female:mother_degree:children	-35.13
age:female:mother_degree:children	-6.13
educ:female:mother_degree:children	-8.19
conservative:white:mother_degree:children	-11919.58
income:white:mother_degree:children	-63.39
age:white:mother_degree:children	-18.69
educ:white:mother_degree:children	-83.46
female:white:mother_degree:children	-1131.44
conservative:father_degree:mother_degree:children	31.01
income:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-7.46
age:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.18
educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	12.07
female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	52.12
white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-285.99
conservative:income:married:children	497.99
conservative:age:married:children	-61.69
income:age:married:children	0.01
conservative:educ:married:children	634.80
income:educ:married:children	1.47
age:educ:married:children	0.52
conservative:female:married:children
income:female:married:children	9.56
age:female:married:children	5.57
educ:female:married:children	39.75
conservative:white:married:children	90.40
income:white:married:children	-27.63
age:white:married:children	-8.37
educ:white:married:children	-27.44
female:white:married:children	-747.25
conservative:father_degree:married:children	-738.59
income:father_degree:married:children	8.23
age:father_degree:married:children	2.46
educ:father_degree:married:children	5.29
female:father_degree:married:children	362.18
white:father_degree:married:children	-229.86
conservative:mother_degree:married:children
income:mother_degree:married:children	30.99
age:mother_degree:married:children	13.58
educ:mother_degree:married:children	76.40
female:mother_degree:married:children	325.14
white:mother_degree:married:children	-483.61
father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	642.36
conservative:income:age:educ:female	2.34
conservative:income:age:educ:white	2.87
conservative:income:age:female:white	25.21
conservative:income:educ:female:white	14.27
conservative:age:educ:female:white	35.30
income:age:educ:female:white	0.04
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree	2.35
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree	9.42
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree	-4.52
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree	46.65
income:age:educ:female:father_degree	0.01
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree	20.42
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree	38.57
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree	61.11
income:age:educ:white:father_degree	0.01
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree	-370.67
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree	464.48
income:age:female:white:father_degree	0.41
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree	399.34
income:educ:female:white:father_degree	1.13
age:educ:female:white:father_degree	0.61
conservative:income:age:educ:mother_degree	2.13
conservative:income:age:female:mother_degree	55.62
conservative:income:educ:female:mother_degree	166.11
conservative:age:educ:female:mother_degree	18.19
income:age:educ:female:mother_degree	-0.01
conservative:income:age:white:mother_degree	22.69
conservative:income:educ:white:mother_degree	35.47
conservative:age:educ:white:mother_degree	28.81
income:age:educ:white:mother_degree	0.01
conservative:income:female:white:mother_degree	2608.79
conservative:age:female:white:mother_degree	324.31
income:age:female:white:mother_degree	0.52
conservative:educ:female:white:mother_degree	-72.34
income:educ:female:white:mother_degree	1.34
age:educ:female:white:mother_degree	0.48
conservative:income:age:father_degree:mother_degree	-11.01
conservative:income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree	-43.36
conservative:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree	8.53
income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.00
conservative:income:female:father_degree:mother_degree	1289.19
conservative:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-112.12
income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.03
conservative:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-998.93
income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.32
age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	0.06
conservative:income:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-869.58
conservative:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree	1.72
income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree	0.13
conservative:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-613.01
income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	0.30
age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	0.29
conservative:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-14624.95
income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	7.72
age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	5.84
educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	12.71
conservative:income:age:educ:married	5.48
conservative:income:age:female:married	14.99
conservative:income:educ:female:married	344.33
conservative:age:educ:female:married	-36.21
income:age:educ:female:married	-0.05
conservative:income:age:white:married	22.28
conservative:income:educ:white:married	345.33
conservative:age:educ:white:married	-20.32
income:age:educ:white:married	0.01
conservative:income:female:white:married	209.03
conservative:age:female:white:married
income:age:female:white:married	-1.43
conservative:educ:female:white:married	311.63
income:educ:female:white:married	-0.52
age:educ:female:white:married	-1.99
conservative:income:age:father_degree:married	-14.60
conservative:income:educ:father_degree:married	290.59
conservative:age:educ:father_degree:married	-100.23
income:age:educ:father_degree:married	0.03
conservative:income:female:father_degree:married
conservative:age:female:father_degree:married
income:age:female:father_degree:married	-0.61
conservative:educ:female:father_degree:married
income:educ:female:father_degree:married	0.44
age:educ:female:father_degree:married	-1.16
conservative:income:white:father_degree:married
conservative:age:white:father_degree:married
income:age:white:father_degree:married	0.56
conservative:educ:white:father_degree:married	30.72
income:educ:white:father_degree:married	3.05
age:educ:white:father_degree:married	0.58
conservative:female:white:father_degree:married
income:female:white:father_degree:married	-2.43
age:female:white:father_degree:married	-25.69
educ:female:white:father_degree:married	-21.58
conservative:income:age:mother_degree:married	4.11
conservative:income:educ:mother_degree:married	349.40
conservative:age:educ:mother_degree:married	-23.04
income:age:educ:mother_degree:married	-0.27
conservative:income:female:mother_degree:married	-209.59
conservative:age:female:mother_degree:married
income:age:female:mother_degree:married	-6.34
conservative:educ:female:mother_degree:married
income:educ:female:mother_degree:married	-17.70
age:educ:female:mother_degree:married	-6.66
conservative:income:white:mother_degree:married
conservative:age:white:mother_degree:married	49.59
income:age:white:mother_degree:married	-3.08
conservative:educ:white:mother_degree:married
income:educ:white:mother_degree:married	-8.03
age:educ:white:mother_degree:married	-4.76
conservative:female:white:mother_degree:married	4513.40
income:female:white:mother_degree:married	-239.80
age:female:white:mother_degree:married	-103.63
educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	-203.35
conservative:income:father_degree:mother_degree:married
conservative:age:father_degree:mother_degree:married
income:age:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-3.42
conservative:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-87.30
income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-9.51
age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-4.76
conservative:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-2839.29
income:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-312.61
age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-135.12
educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-335.75
conservative:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married
income:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-121.20
age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-60.76
educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-174.94
female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-5249.31
conservative:income:age:educ:children	0.28
conservative:income:age:female:children	-8.87
conservative:income:educ:female:children	-70.15
conservative:age:educ:female:children	17.28
income:age:educ:female:children	-0.00
conservative:income:age:white:children	-4.65
conservative:income:educ:white:children	-48.85
conservative:age:educ:white:children	22.39
income:age:educ:white:children	0.03
conservative:income:female:white:children	-1217.50
conservative:age:female:white:children	219.81
income:age:female:white:children	0.56
conservative:educ:female:white:children	-97.56
income:educ:female:white:children	2.27
age:educ:female:white:children	0.69
conservative:income:age:father_degree:children	-12.77
conservative:income:educ:father_degree:children	-5.94
conservative:age:educ:father_degree:children	25.55
income:age:educ:father_degree:children	-0.05
conservative:income:female:father_degree:children	-1320.39
conservative:age:female:father_degree:children	47.33
income:age:female:father_degree:children	-0.55
conservative:educ:female:father_degree:children	376.32
income:educ:female:father_degree:children	-3.16
age:educ:female:father_degree:children	-0.80
conservative:income:white:father_degree:children	-1039.83
conservative:age:white:father_degree:children	119.53
income:age:white:father_degree:children	-0.73
conservative:educ:white:father_degree:children	747.36
income:educ:white:father_degree:children	-2.56
age:educ:white:father_degree:children	-0.69
conservative:female:white:father_degree:children	-4586.25
income:female:white:father_degree:children	-29.69
age:female:white:father_degree:children	-8.73
educ:female:white:father_degree:children	-23.37
conservative:income:age:mother_degree:children	0.28
conservative:income:educ:mother_degree:children	-95.38
conservative:age:educ:mother_degree:children	57.65
income:age:educ:mother_degree:children	0.03
conservative:income:female:mother_degree:children	-84.38
conservative:age:female:mother_degree:children	513.27
income:age:female:mother_degree:children	0.71
conservative:educ:female:mother_degree:children	861.49
income:educ:female:mother_degree:children	1.97
age:educ:female:mother_degree:children	0.27
conservative:income:white:mother_degree:children	-2105.60
conservative:age:white:mother_degree:children	623.14
income:age:white:mother_degree:children	1.13
conservative:educ:white:mother_degree:children	1084.02
income:educ:white:mother_degree:children	4.66
age:educ:white:mother_degree:children	1.40
conservative:female:white:mother_degree:children	13765.55
income:female:white:mother_degree:children	70.45
age:female:white:mother_degree:children	19.68
educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	81.57
conservative:income:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-2500.32
conservative:age:father_degree:mother_degree:children	263.77
income:age:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.17
conservative:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	943.11
income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.01
age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.10
conservative:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children
income:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	12.39
age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.80
educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-12.13
conservative:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children
income:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	18.25
age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	1.65
educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	23.34
female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	305.06
conservative:income:age:married:children	0.39
conservative:income:educ:married:children	102.80
conservative:age:educ:married:children	-19.42
income:age:educ:married:children	-0.02
conservative:income:female:married:children	-121.58
conservative:age:female:married:children	-102.05
income:age:female:married:children	-0.04
conservative:educ:female:married:children	-179.51
income:educ:female:married:children	-1.16
age:educ:female:married:children	-0.58
conservative:income:white:married:children	-504.96
conservative:age:white:married:children	59.73
income:age:white:married:children	0.62
conservative:educ:white:married:children	-640.13
income:educ:white:married:children	1.55
age:educ:white:married:children	0.43
conservative:female:white:married:children	2429.95
income:female:white:married:children	47.05
age:female:white:married:children	9.40
educ:female:white:married:children	52.49
conservative:income:father_degree:married:children	1459.05
conservative:age:father_degree:married:children	-1788.76
income:age:father_degree:married:children	-0.27
conservative:educ:father_degree:married:children	-447.43
income:educ:father_degree:married:children	-1.27
age:educ:father_degree:married:children	-0.29
conservative:female:father_degree:married:children
income:female:father_degree:married:children	-16.52
age:female:father_degree:married:children	-9.66
educ:female:father_degree:married:children	-31.57
conservative:white:father_degree:married:children
income:white:father_degree:married:children	-5.19
age:white:father_degree:married:children	-2.78
educ:white:father_degree:married:children	17.19
female:white:father_degree:married:children	259.26
conservative:income:mother_degree:married:children	-2128.21
conservative:age:mother_degree:married:children	495.87
income:age:mother_degree:married:children	-0.48
conservative:educ:mother_degree:married:children	-111.86
income:educ:mother_degree:married:children	-2.87
age:educ:mother_degree:married:children	-1.19
conservative:female:mother_degree:married:children
income:female:mother_degree:married:children	-37.49
age:female:mother_degree:married:children	-2.23
educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	-20.20
conservative:white:mother_degree:married:children	1481.66
income:white:mother_degree:married:children	31.80
age:white:mother_degree:married:children	7.70
educ:white:mother_degree:married:children	32.31
female:white:mother_degree:married:children	1166.19
conservative:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-320.03
income:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-29.89
age:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-14.45
educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-52.24
female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-494.53
white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-42.86
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white	-2.45
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree	-1.55
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree	-2.42
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree	-10.78
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree	1.19
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree	-48.07
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree	-0.03
conservative:income:age:educ:female:mother_degree	-3.82
conservative:income:age:educ:white:mother_degree	-2.19
conservative:income:age:female:white:mother_degree	-56.76
conservative:income:educ:female:white:mother_degree	-171.95
conservative:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree	-19.79
income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree	-0.03
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree	0.16
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-19.40
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	-79.03
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	4.83
income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	0.01
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree	10.29
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	41.58
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-9.48
income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.01
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-1310.01
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	108.34
income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.19
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	977.07
income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.36
age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.32
conservative:income:age:educ:female:married	-4.97
conservative:income:age:educ:white:married	-5.56
conservative:income:age:female:white:married	-19.00
conservative:income:educ:female:white:married	-360.20
conservative:age:educ:female:white:married	29.77
income:age:educ:female:white:married	0.07
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree:married	1.36
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree:married	8.41
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree:married	-731.88
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree:married	77.66
income:age:educ:female:father_degree:married	0.02
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree:married	13.39
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree:married	-292.85
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree:married	98.96
income:age:educ:white:father_degree:married	-0.04
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree:married	-186.90
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree:married	-71.05
income:age:female:white:father_degree:married	0.51
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree:married	-244.87
income:educ:female:white:father_degree:married	-1.03
age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married	1.13
conservative:income:age:educ:mother_degree:married	-5.24
conservative:income:age:female:mother_degree:married	-1120.84
conservative:income:educ:female:mother_degree:married	-1065.75
conservative:age:educ:female:mother_degree:married	658.62
income:age:educ:female:mother_degree:married	0.39
conservative:income:age:white:mother_degree:married	-6.14
conservative:income:educ:white:mother_degree:married	-357.63
conservative:age:educ:white:mother_degree:married	19.44
income:age:educ:white:mother_degree:married	0.21
conservative:income:female:white:mother_degree:married
conservative:age:female:white:mother_degree:married	-89.32
income:age:female:white:mother_degree:married	6.04
conservative:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	-340.17
income:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	13.88
age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	6.06
conservative:income:age:father_degree:mother_degree:married	23.94
conservative:income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-314.59
conservative:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	87.84
income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	0.22
conservative:income:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	141.82
conservative:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	53.86
income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	7.16
conservative:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	182.82
income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	19.19
age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	8.29
conservative:income:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-64.66
conservative:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-31.21
income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	2.83
conservative:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married
income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	7.98
age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	4.06
conservative:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married
income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	297.50
age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	133.41
educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	314.95
conservative:income:age:educ:female:children	0.07
conservative:income:age:educ:white:children	-0.29
conservative:income:age:female:white:children	8.31
conservative:income:educ:female:white:children	67.72
conservative:age:educ:female:white:children	-17.88
income:age:educ:female:white:children	-0.04
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree:children	-0.41
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree:children	18.20
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree:children	31.63
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree:children	-18.57
income:age:educ:female:father_degree:children	0.05
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree:children	13.40
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree:children	7.65
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree:children	-24.91
income:age:educ:white:father_degree:children	0.05
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree:children	1340.89
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree:children	-38.88
income:age:female:white:father_degree:children	0.61
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree:children	-365.61
income:educ:female:white:father_degree:children	2.44
age:educ:female:white:father_degree:children	0.60
conservative:income:age:educ:mother_degree:children	-1.72
conservative:income:age:female:mother_degree:children	-30.17
conservative:income:educ:female:mother_degree:children	-38.45
conservative:age:educ:female:mother_degree:children	-46.37
income:age:educ:female:mother_degree:children	-0.04
conservative:income:age:white:mother_degree:children	-0.87
conservative:income:educ:white:mother_degree:children	92.17
conservative:age:educ:white:mother_degree:children	-58.58
income:age:educ:white:mother_degree:children	-0.08
conservative:income:female:white:mother_degree:children
conservative:age:female:white:mother_degree:children	-535.86
income:age:female:white:mother_degree:children	-1.29
conservative:educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	-987.57
income:educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	-4.90
age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	-1.36
conservative:income:age:father_degree:mother_degree:children	16.87
conservative:income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	78.37
conservative:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-44.23
income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.00
conservative:income:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	482.42
conservative:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-147.25
income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.29
conservative:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-715.96
income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.26
age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.09
conservative:income:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	2504.18
conservative:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-259.06
income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.17
conservative:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-961.75
income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-1.23
age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.17
conservative:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-677.35
income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-21.76
age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-2.37
educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-22.15
conservative:income:age:educ:married:children	-1.56
conservative:income:age:female:married:children	0.30
conservative:income:educ:female:married:children	-158.04
conservative:age:educ:female:married:children	22.74
income:age:educ:female:married:children	0.01
conservative:income:age:white:married:children	-0.30
conservative:income:educ:white:married:children	-102.29
conservative:age:educ:white:married:children	19.50
income:age:educ:white:married:children	-0.03
conservative:income:female:white:married:children
conservative:age:female:white:married:children	55.45
income:age:female:white:married:children	-0.75
conservative:educ:female:white:married:children
income:educ:female:white:married:children	-3.19
age:educ:female:white:married:children	-0.61
conservative:income:age:father_degree:married:children	53.14
conservative:income:educ:father_degree:married:children	-196.71
conservative:age:educ:father_degree:married:children	188.06
income:age:educ:father_degree:married:children	0.03
conservative:income:female:father_degree:married:children	74.77
conservative:age:female:father_degree:married:children	24.16
income:age:female:father_degree:married:children	0.40
conservative:educ:female:father_degree:married:children	107.59
income:educ:female:father_degree:married:children	1.82
age:educ:female:father_degree:married:children	0.76
conservative:income:white:father_degree:married:children	-1416.89
conservative:age:white:father_degree:married:children	1804.50
income:age:white:father_degree:married:children	0.36
conservative:educ:white:father_degree:married:children	490.20
income:educ:white:father_degree:married:children	0.65
age:educ:white:father_degree:married:children	0.19
conservative:female:white:father_degree:married:children	-1632.05
income:female:white:father_degree:married:children	-6.26
age:female:white:father_degree:married:children	4.64
educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children	-20.63
conservative:income:age:mother_degree:married:children	-5.04
conservative:income:educ:mother_degree:married:children	-46.81
conservative:age:educ:mother_degree:married:children	-38.08
income:age:educ:mother_degree:married:children	0.04
conservative:income:female:mother_degree:married:children
conservative:age:female:mother_degree:married:children	-37.16
income:age:female:mother_degree:married:children	0.56
conservative:educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	231.77
income:educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	2.33
age:educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	0.00
conservative:income:white:mother_degree:married:children	2066.63
conservative:age:white:mother_degree:married:children	-519.26
income:age:white:mother_degree:married:children	-0.56
conservative:educ:white:mother_degree:married:children
income:educ:white:mother_degree:married:children	-2.09
age:educ:white:mother_degree:married:children	-0.49
conservative:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	-3111.66
income:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	-30.26
age:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	-18.00
educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	-95.85
conservative:income:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	8.56
conservative:age:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	1286.20
income:age:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	0.71
conservative:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children
income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	2.55
age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	1.10
conservative:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children
income:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	53.88
age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	12.32
educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	28.81
conservative:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children
income:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	6.16
age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	7.78
educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	1.20
female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-35.85
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree	1.64
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree	3.90
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree	1.29
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-0.12
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	19.76
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	80.41
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-4.56
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	0.01
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:married	5.29
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree:married	7.24
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree:married	-1.29
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree:married	-4.62
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree:married	744.34
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married	-72.85
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married	-0.01
conservative:income:age:educ:female:mother_degree:married	60.98
conservative:income:age:educ:white:mother_degree:married	5.39
conservative:income:age:female:white:mother_degree:married	1124.88
conservative:income:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	1081.52
conservative:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	-651.81
income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	-0.36
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-0.86
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	1075.28
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	1022.80
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-628.26
income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-0.44
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-22.45
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	318.84
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-85.79
income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-0.19
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married
income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-7.05
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married
income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-18.09
age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-8.13
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:children	-0.03
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree:children	-0.04
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree:children	0.37
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree:children	-18.60
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree:children	-32.73
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:children	18.12
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:children	-0.05
conservative:income:age:educ:female:mother_degree:children	3.64
conservative:income:age:educ:white:mother_degree:children	1.77
conservative:income:age:female:white:mother_degree:children	31.32
conservative:income:educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	44.40
conservative:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	48.03
income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	0.09
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:children	1.14
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	12.11
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	51.74
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	31.53
income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.01
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-17.13
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-77.92
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	44.18
income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.01
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-458.07
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	149.03
income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.27
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	774.17
income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	1.32
age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	0.17
conservative:income:age:educ:female:married:children	2.04
conservative:income:age:educ:white:married:children	1.55
conservative:income:age:female:white:married:children	2.07
conservative:income:educ:female:white:married:children	166.89
conservative:age:educ:female:white:married:children	-19.21
income:age:educ:female:white:married:children	0.05
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree:married:children	-5.14
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree:married:children	-19.62
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree:married:children	221.40
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree:married:children	-25.69
income:age:educ:female:father_degree:married:children	-0.04
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree:married:children	-53.93
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree:married:children	194.14
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree:married:children	-189.02
income:age:educ:white:father_degree:married:children	-0.03
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree:married:children
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree:married:children
income:age:female:white:father_degree:married:children	-0.22
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children
income:educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children	0.14
age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children	-0.29
conservative:income:age:educ:mother_degree:married:children	4.14
conservative:income:age:female:mother_degree:married:children	407.39
conservative:income:educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	347.12
conservative:age:educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	-313.18
income:age:educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	-0.03
conservative:income:age:white:mother_degree:married:children	6.03
conservative:income:educ:white:mother_degree:married:children	51.46
conservative:age:educ:white:mother_degree:married:children	39.90
income:age:educ:white:mother_degree:married:children	0.04
conservative:income:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	140.54
conservative:age:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	92.75
income:age:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	0.39
conservative:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children
income:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	2.92
age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	1.58
conservative:income:age:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-42.13
conservative:income:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	154.03
conservative:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-125.47
income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-0.05
conservative:income:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children
conservative:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children
income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-1.17
conservative:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-127.25
income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-3.51
age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-0.65
conservative:income:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children
conservative:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-1284.19
income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-0.45
conservative:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	36.64
income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-0.52
age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-0.52
conservative:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	1806.38
income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-34.14
age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-9.12
educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	17.64
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree	-1.31
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married	-7.49
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married	-61.29
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-56.87
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	0.77
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-1078.07
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	-1031.91
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	624.80
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	0.43
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:children	0.07
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:children	-3.72
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-2.98
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-1.14
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-12.14
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-53.92
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-31.86
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	-0.02
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:married:children	-2.21
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree:married:children	-0.67
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree:married:children	5.19
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree:married:children	18.35
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children	-226.34
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children	24.08
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children	0.02
conservative:income:age:educ:female:mother_degree:married:children	-17.74
conservative:income:age:educ:white:mother_degree:married:children	-4.22
conservative:income:age:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	-409.94
conservative:income:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	-357.54
conservative:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	309.05
income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	-0.05
conservative:income:age:educ:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	2.08
conservative:income:age:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-379.53
conservative:income:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-280.63
conservative:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	304.72
income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	0.07
conservative:income:age:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	42.10
conservative:income:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-155.23
conservative:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	125.11
income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	0.03
conservative:income:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-79.67
conservative:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-24.36
income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	1.08
conservative:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children
income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	1.73
age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	0.30
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married	57.05
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:children	2.99
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:married:children	0.75
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:mother_degree:married:children	17.93
conservative:income:age:educ:female:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	14.05
conservative:income:age:educ:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-2.07
conservative:income:age:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	380.68
conservative:income:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	286.19
conservative:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-303.03
income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-0.06
conservative:income:age:educ:female:white:father_degree:mother_degree:married:children	-14.12
R²	0.53
Adj. R²	0.33
Num. obs.	3309
RMSE	29.25
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

3 ML approach

Fit causal forest (or any other ML algorithm) to get the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) for every person.

# Build X by dropping outcome, treatment
X <- 
  df_2024 %>%
  select(-trump_rating, -conservative) %>% 
  as.data.frame()

Y <- df_2024$trump_rating
W <- df_2024$conservative

# 3. Fit the causal forest
cf <- causal_forest(
  X, Y, W,
  num.trees          = 4000,    # more trees → stability
  # min.node.size      = 5,       # control tree depth
  honesty            = TRUE,    # honest splitting
  seed               = 27011990 # reproducibility
)

3.1 Average treatment effect

average_treatment_effect(cf)

## estimate  std.err 
## 33.25175  1.20609

3.2 RATE

We use RATE to assess if there is any heterogenenity in this effect at all:

# Split data to avoid using the same data for training and evaluation
n <- nrow(df_2024)

train <- sample(1:n, n / 2)
train.forest <- causal_forest(X[train, ], Y[train], W[train])
eval.forest <- causal_forest(X[-train, ], Y[-train], W[-train])

# Get CATE predictions for the evaluation set, based on the training forest
cate_estimates_for_eval <- predict(train.forest, X[-train, ])$predictions

# Calculate the AUTOC
rate <- rank_average_treatment_effect(eval.forest, cate_estimates_for_eval)

# Plot the targeting curve
plot(rate, main="Targeting Operator Characteristic Curve")

# Print the AUTOC estimate and its confidence interval
print(paste("AUTOC:", round(rate$estimate, 2), "+/-", round(1.96 * rate$std.err, 2)))

## [1] "AUTOC: 10.91 +/- 3.43"

rate

##  estimate  std.err             target
##  10.90516 1.749135 priorities | AUTOC

Strong heterogeneity exists.

3.3 Split by quintiles

# Turn predictions into a tibble and define quintiles
df_cate <- 
  tibble(
    treatment_effect = cf$predictions
  ) %>%
  mutate(
    quintile = ntile(treatment_effect, 5)                    # 1–5 based on distribution
  )

# Plot histogram, filling by quintile
ggplot(df_cate, aes(x = treatment_effect, fill = factor(quintile))) +
  geom_histogram(
    color = "white",
    bins  = 30          # adjusted
  ) +
  scale_fill_brewer(
    palette = "Spectral", 
    name    = "Quintile\n(1 = lowest, 5 = highest)"
  ) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 33.25, linetype = "dashed") +
  theme_bw() +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom") +
  labs(
    x = "Individual Treatment Effect",
    y = "Count",
    title = "Distribution of effects by Quintile"
  )

ggplot(df_cate, aes(x = factor(quintile), y = treatment_effect)) +
  geom_boxplot() +
  theme_bw()

3.4 Most important covariates

varimp <- variable_importance(cf)
ranked.vars <- order(varimp, decreasing = TRUE)

colnames(X)[ranked.vars] %>% as_tibble_col(column_name = "covariate_importance")

3.5 Covariate heatmap

bind_cols(df_2024, df_cate) %>% 
  group_by(quintile) %>% 
  summarise_at(
    vars(colnames(X)[ranked.vars]),
    ~ mean(., na.rm = T),
  ) %>%
  mutate_at(vars(-quintile), ~ scale(.) %>% as.vector) %>%
  pivot_longer(-quintile, names_to = "variable", values_to = "value") %>%
  mutate(variable = factor(variable, levels = colnames(X)[ranked.vars])) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = variable, y = factor(quintile), fill = value)) +
  geom_tile(color = "white") +
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "red", high = "green") +
  labs(x = "Variable", y = "Quintile", fill = "Mean value") +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))

3.6 Explainability

If the world was really “linear”, what would your estimates look like? We can compare this with combined model from the previous section.

best_linear_projection(cf, X[ranked.vars]) %>% 
  knitreg(include.ci = F, omit.coef = "(Intercept)", custom.model.names = c("Linear Projection"), digits = 3)

Statistical models
	Linear Projection
educ	2.066^***
	(0.472)
white	16.743^***
	(3.012)
income	0.869^***
	(0.248)
age	0.323^***
	(0.073)
children	-1.536
	(0.817)
father_degree	0.697
	(1.151)
mother_degree	0.471
	(1.253)
born_us	3.702
	(3.818)
female	-1.407
	(2.388)
married	0.138
	(2.675)
^*p < 0.001; ^p < 0.01; ^*p < 0.05

Discovering Heterogeneity

Updated: September 10, 2025