## Rows: 6,993
## Columns: 47
## $ State_Name <chr> "Andaman_&_Nicobar_Islands", "Andhra_Pradesh", …
## $ Assembly_No <int> 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17, 17,…
## $ Constituency_No <int> 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 1…
## $ Year <dbl> 2019, 2019, 2019, 2019, 2019, 2019, 2019, 2019,…
## $ month <int> 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4,…
## $ Poll_No <int> 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,…
## $ DelimID <int> 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4,…
## $ Position <int> 1, 6, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, 5, 5, 5, 4, 6, 5,…
## $ Candidate <chr> "KULDEEP RAI SHARMA", "SHRUTI DEVI VYRICHERLA",…
## $ Sex <chr> "M", "F", "M", "M", "F", "M", "M", "M", "M", "M…
## $ Party <chr> "INC", "INC", "INC", "INC", "INC", "INC", "INC"…
## $ Votes <int> 95308, 17730, 13745, 15725, 14633, 10121, 8640,…
## $ Candidate_Type <chr> "GEN", "ST", "", "", "", "", "", "SC", "", "GEN…
## $ Valid_Votes <int> 207296, 1074538, 1157329, 1217890, 1239754, 123…
## $ Electors <int> 318471, 1451418, 1553860, 1503980, 1829300, 152…
## $ Constituency_Name <chr> "ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS", "ARUKU", "SRIKAKUL…
## $ Constituency_Type <chr> "GEN", "ST", "GEN", "GEN", "GEN", "GEN", "GEN",…
## $ Sub_Region <chr> "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "",…
## $ N_Cand <int> 15, 10, 9, 14, 14, 10, 15, 10, 11, 15, 10, 12, …
## $ Turnout_Percentage <dbl> 65.09, 74.03, 74.48, 80.98, 67.77, 81.41, 78.95…
## $ Vote_Share_Percentage <dbl> 45.98, 1.65, 1.19, 1.29, 1.18, 0.82, 0.70, 0.64…
## $ Deposit_Lost <chr> "no", "yes", "yes", "yes", "yes", "yes", "yes",…
## $ Margin <int> 1407, 3904, 5355, 8459, 11605, 5677, 5313, 5112…
## $ Margin_Percentage <dbl> 0.68, 0.36, 0.46, 0.69, 0.94, 0.46, 0.43, 0.41,…
## $ ENOP <dbl> 2.38, 2.70, 2.38, 2.38, 3.45, 2.63, 2.70, 3.03,…
## $ pid <chr> "GEAN64836", "GEAP818124", "GEAP817724", "GEAP8…
## $ Party_Type_TCPD <chr> "National Party", "National Party", "National P…
## $ Party_ID <int> 3482, 3482, 3482, 3482, 3482, 3482, 3482, 3482,…
## $ last_poll <lgl> TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, TRUE, TRUE,…
## $ Contested <int> 4, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1,…
## $ Last_Party <chr> "INC", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", …
## $ Last_Party_ID <int> 3482, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ Last_Constituency_Name <chr> "ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS", "", "", "", "", ""…
## $ Same_Constituency <lgl> TRUE, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ Same_Party <lgl> TRUE, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, N…
## $ No_Terms <int> 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,…
## $ Turncoat <lgl> FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE…
## $ Incumbent <lgl> FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE…
## $ Recontest <lgl> TRUE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE, FALSE,…
## $ MyNeta_education <chr> "Graduate Professional", "Doctorate", "Post Gra…
## $ TCPD_Prof_Main <chr> "Business", "Politics", "Agriculture", "Busines…
## $ TCPD_Prof_Main_Desc <chr> "", "Ex MLA", "", "", "", "", "", "Self-employe…
## $ TCPD_Prof_Second <chr> "Social Work", "Agriculture", "", "", "", "", "…
## $ TCPD_Prof_Second_Desc <chr> "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "", "",…
## $ Election_Type <chr> "Lok Sabha Election (GE)", "Lok Sabha Election …
## $ PC_Name_clean <chr> "ANDAMAN NICOBAR ISLANDS", "ARUKU", "SRIKAKULAM…
## $ Age <int> NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA,…
##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Cong_VoteShare_Change
## -----------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change -0.046***
## (0.017)
##
## Constant 0.267
## (0.336)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 2,528
## R2 0.003
## Adjusted R2 0.002
## Residual Std. Error 12.604 (df = 2526)
## F Statistic 6.868*** (df = 1; 2526)
## ===============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## Pearson's product-moment correlation
##
## data: cleaned$Electorate_Change and cleaned$Cong_VoteShare_Change
## t = 4.2804, df = 6820, p-value = 1.891e-05
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## 0.02806555 0.07539938
## sample estimates:
## cor
## 0.05176154
##
## ===============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Cong_VoteShare_Change
## -----------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change -0.023***
## (0.008)
##
## Constant -0.044
## (0.191)
##
## -----------------------------------------------
## Observations 15,040
## R2 0.001
## Adjusted R2 0.001
## Residual Std. Error 16.424 (df = 15038)
## F Statistic 8.807*** (df = 1; 15038)
## ===============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## Pearson's product-moment correlation
##
## data: cleaned_ae$Electorate_Change and cleaned_ae$Cong_VoteShare_Change
## t = -7.7978, df = 44755, p-value = 6.433e-15
## alternative hypothesis: true correlation is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -0.04608355 -0.02757979
## sample estimates:
## cor
## -0.03683483
##
## Regression of Congress Vote Share Change on Electorate Change
## =====================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------------------------------
## Congress Vote Share Change
## 1st Party System 2nd Party System 3rd Party System 4th Party System
## (1) (2) (3) (4)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate Change 0.0000*** 0.002 -0.01 0.01
## (0.0000) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)
##
## Constant 0.01 -0.15 0.09 -0.05
## (0.43) (0.29) (0.28) (0.35)
##
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 979 1,926 2,294 1,165
## R2 0.02 0.0000 0.001 0.002
## Adjusted R2 0.02 -0.0005 0.0003 0.001
## =====================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## ===============================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------
## Cong_VoteShare_Change
## Delimitation 3rd Delimitation 4th
## (1) (2)
## ---------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change -0.012** 0.013
## (0.005) (0.008)
##
## Constant 0.021 -0.221
## (0.206) (0.312)
##
## ---------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 3,859 1,605
## R2 0.001 0.002
## Adjusted R2 0.001 0.001
## Residual Std. Error 12.722 (df = 3857) 12.461 (df = 1603)
## F Statistic 5.074** (df = 1; 3857) 2.607 (df = 1; 1603)
## ===============================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## Regression of Congress Vote Share Change on Electorate Change fo assembly elections
## =====================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -------------------------------------------------------------------
## Congress Vote Share Change
## 1st Party System 2nd Party System 3rd Party System 4th Party System
## (1) (2) (3) (4)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate Change -0.01 -0.02*** -0.02*** -0.05***
## (0.01) (0.01) (0.004) (0.01)
##
## Constant 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.18
## (0.22) (0.14) (0.13) (0.27)
##
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 6,358 16,150 15,590 3,756
## R2 0.0000 0.001 0.002 0.01
## Adjusted R2 -0.0001 0.001 0.002 0.01
## =====================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
## Warning: Using `size` aesthetic for lines was deprecated in ggplot2 3.4.0.
## ℹ Please use `linewidth` instead.
## This warning is displayed once every 8 hours.
## Call `lifecycle::last_lifecycle_warnings()` to see where this warning was
## generated.
## Warning: Removed 6 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## Warning: Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Warning: Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Warning: Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## Warning: Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_line()`).
## Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## Warning: Removed 31 rows containing non-finite outside the scale range
## (`stat_density()`).
Average voteswing as per change in electorate after
2009
| 2009-2014 |
Above 8% |
-11.8248742 |
318 |
| 2009-2014 |
Below 8% |
-10.5011268 |
71 |
| 2014-2019 |
Above 8% |
0.5694606 |
241 |
| 2014-2019 |
Below 8% |
1.5986325 |
117 |
| 2019-2024 |
Above 8% |
5.2687023 |
131 |
| 2019-2024 |
Below 8% |
4.3060000 |
170 |
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
##
## Effect of Electorate Change on INC Vote Swing (2014–2019)
## ================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## --------------------------------------
## Congress Vote Swing (%)
## INC vs BJP INC vs Other Party
## (1) (2)
## ----------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change_Percent 0.080 -0.144
## (0.114) (0.658)
## Constant -1.268 12.362*
## (1.222) (6.688)
## ----------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 315 43
## R2 0.002 0.001
## Adjusted R2 -0.002 -0.023
## Residual Std. Error 8.703 (df = 313) 21.252 (df = 41)
## F Statistic 0.492 (df = 1; 313) 0.048 (df = 1; 41)
## ================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
##
## Effect of Electorate Change on INC Vote Swing (2009–2024)
## =========================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -----------------------------------------------
## Congress Vote Swing (%)
## INC vs BJP INC vs Other Party
## (1) (2)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change_Percent -0.455*** -0.771***
## (0.055) (0.187)
## Constant 3.187*** 2.317
## (0.741) (2.825)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 903 145
## R2 0.070 0.107
## Adjusted R2 0.069 0.100
## Residual Std. Error 11.966 (df = 901) 21.515 (df = 143)
## F Statistic 68.172*** (df = 1; 901) 17.063*** (df = 1; 143)
## =========================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing non-finite outside the scale range
## (`stat_smooth()`).
## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
## `geom_smooth()` using formula = 'y ~ x'
## Warning: Removed 1 row containing non-finite outside the scale range
## (`stat_smooth()`).
## Warning: Removed 1 row containing missing values or values outside the scale range
## (`geom_point()`).
##
## Effect of Electorate Change on INC Vote Swing (1991–2004)
## =========================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## -----------------------------------------------
## Congress Vote Swing (%)
## INC vs BJP INC vs Other Party
## (1) (2)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Electorate_Change_Percent -0.255*** -0.447***
## (0.047) (0.127)
## Constant 0.204 -0.971
## (0.665) (1.086)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 927 302
## R2 0.030 0.040
## Adjusted R2 0.029 0.037
## Residual Std. Error 14.196 (df = 925) 14.834 (df = 300)
## F Statistic 28.796*** (df = 1; 925) 12.408*** (df = 1; 300)
## =========================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## =============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Position
## ---------------------------------------------
## Vote_Swing 0.120***
## (0.019)
##
## Constant -2.415***
## (0.213)
##
## ---------------------------------------------
## Observations 358
## Log Likelihood -106.280
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 216.560
## =============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
##
## =============================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Position
## ---------------------------------------------
## Vote_Swing 0.062***
## (0.006)
##
## Constant -0.867***
## (0.067)
##
## ---------------------------------------------
## Observations 1,229
## Log Likelihood -668.140
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 1,340.281
## =============================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01
