Data Analysis MOOC- Project1

Below is the R code and comments of data analysis project-1

Some theoretical concepts before actual work:

Linear regression assumpes below:

  1. Normal distribution for explanatory (x) and response (y) variable
  2. Linear relationship between (x) and (y)
  3. Homoscedasticity (i.e. residualsa re not related to X)

Step 1: explore relationships with the help of scatterplots

Step 2: explore relationships with the help of correlations Correlation coeficient measures the stregth of relationship between two variables.
Relationship could be postivie or negative Correlation value varies from -1 to +1. Types of correlation coefficients:

a. Pearson's correlation coefficient (X & Y are continuous)
b. Point bi-serial correlation - when one variable is continous and the other is di-chotomous (0,1)
c.Phi coefficient - Both are dichotomous (0,1)
d. Spear's rank - (For ranked data)

Pearson's correlation coefficent = Degree to which X &Y vary together       Cov(X,Y)
                                  -----------------------------------   =  ------------
                                  Degree to which X, Y vary independently  Var of X & Y

Step 3 : Fit a linear regression equation between X & Y

Step 4; Explore residuals: a.Compute residuals (Y- Y') Y' is computed value from regression eq b. Normalize residuals c.Make residual plot d.Check normality

Step 5 : Quantify model fit using adjusted-R squared value;

R-sqaured value is square of correlation coefficient (Explained above)

R-sqaured value measures how well the model containing (x) values explains the varaibility in (Y)

R-squared value will be between 0 to 1. Any model with R-squared value above 0.64 is good (i.e correlation coefficient value - 0.8 or +0.8)

In case of multiple explanatory variables (X), all variables may not be there in linear regression model i.e. all explantatory variables may not contribute to explain variablity in Y.

Regression coefficient = Sum of squares of regression values/ Total sum of sqaures

Total sum of squares = Sum of squares of regression + Sum of squares of Residuals SSTO (Total sum of squares) = SST(Sum of squares of treatments) +SSE(Sum of squares of Errors)

The use of an adjusted R-squared (R2) is an attempt to take account of the phenomenon of the R-squared automatically and spuriously increasing when extra explanatory variables are added to the model. It is a modification due to Theil of R2 that adjusts for the number of explanatory terms in a model relative to the number of data points. The adjusted R2 can be negative, and its value will always be less than or equal to that of R2. Unlike R2, the adjusted R2 increases when a new explanator is included only if the new explanator improves the R2 more than would be expected in the absence of any explanatory value being added by the new explanator. If a set of explanatory variables with a predetermined hierarchy of importance are introduced into a regression one at a time, with the adjusted R2 computed each time, the level at which adjusted R2 reaches a maximum, and decreases afterward, would be the regression with the ideal combination of having the best fit without excess/unnecessary terms. The adjusted R2 is defined as

= R2 - (1-R2)(p/(n-p-1))

where p is the total number of regressors in the linear model (not counting the constant term), and n is the sample size.

Adjusted R2 can also be written as

= (Sum of sqaures of residuals/degrees of freedom of residuals) 1 - ————————————————————— (Sum of sqaures of total/degrees of freedom of total)

Going by above, R2 can also be written as

= (Sum of sqaures of residuals/n) 1 - ————————————————————— (Sum of sqaures of total/n)

Here degrees of freedom = n, number of data points

where dft is the degrees of freedom n– 1 of the estimate of the population variance of the dependent variable, and dfe is the degrees of freedom n – p – 1 of the estimate of the underlying population error variance.

Adjusted R2 does not have the same interpretation as R2—while R2 is a measure of fit, adjusted R2 is instead a comparative measure of suitability of alternative nested sets of explanators.As such, care must be taken in interpreting and reporting this statistic. Adjusted R2 is particularly useful in the feature selection stage of model building.

library(gclus)
## Loading required package: cluster

dt <- read.csv("/media/APOLLO M250/4_New_Coursera/coursera-master/dataanalysis-002/loansData.csv")
# dt<-read.csv(file.choose())
a <- strsplit(as.character(dt$FICO.Range), "-")  #Splitting FICO RANGE STRING
j <- do.call("rbind", a)  # CONVERTS list created above to a dataframe
colnames(j) <- c("F1", "F2")  # Renaming columns of dataframe j
p <- cbind(dt, j)  # Making one data frame with all data
p[!complete.cases(p), ]  # This will give list of rows where missing data is present
##        Amount.Requested Amount.Funded.By.Investors Interest.Rate
## 101596             5000                       4525         7.43%
## 101515             3500                        225        10.28%
##        Loan.Length Loan.Purpose Debt.To.Income.Ratio State Home.Ownership
## 101596   36 months        other                   1%    NY           NONE
## 101515   36 months        other                  10%    NY           RENT
##        Monthly.Income FICO.Range Open.CREDIT.Lines
## 101596             NA    800-804                NA
## 101515          15000    685-689                NA
##        Revolving.CREDIT.Balance Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months
## 101596                       NA                             NA
## 101515                       NA                             NA
##        Employment.Length  F1  F2
## 101596          < 1 year 800 804
## 101515          < 1 year 685 689
# There are two rows in data framw with NAs
p <- p[complete.cases(p), ]  # Data frame with complete set of values

Below is to find numerical values of Interest Rate

m <- sub("%", "", p$Interest.Rate)  #repalces % in Interest Rate  and adds to dataframe 'm'
m <- as.numeric(m)  #converts string to numeric
q <- cbind(p, m)  # makes one data frame with interest rate added to original
head(q)
##       Amount.Requested Amount.Funded.By.Investors Interest.Rate
## 81174            20000                      20000         8.90%
## 99592            19200                      19200        12.12%
## 80059            35000                      35000        21.98%
## 15825            10000                       9975         9.99%
## 33182            12000                      12000        11.71%
## 62403             6000                       6000        15.31%
##       Loan.Length       Loan.Purpose Debt.To.Income.Ratio State
## 81174   36 months debt_consolidation               14.90%    SC
## 99592   36 months debt_consolidation               28.36%    TX
## 80059   60 months debt_consolidation               23.81%    CA
## 15825   36 months debt_consolidation               14.30%    KS
## 33182   36 months        credit_card               18.78%    NJ
## 62403   36 months              other               20.05%    CT
##       Home.Ownership Monthly.Income FICO.Range Open.CREDIT.Lines
## 81174       MORTGAGE           6542    735-739                14
## 99592       MORTGAGE           4583    715-719                12
## 80059       MORTGAGE          11500    690-694                14
## 15825       MORTGAGE           3833    695-699                10
## 33182           RENT           3195    695-699                11
## 62403            OWN           4892    670-674                17
##       Revolving.CREDIT.Balance Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months
## 81174                    14272                              2
## 99592                    11140                              1
## 80059                    21977                              1
## 15825                     9346                              0
## 33182                    14469                              0
## 62403                    10391                              2
##       Employment.Length  F1  F2     m
## 81174          < 1 year 735 739  8.90
## 99592           2 years 715 719 12.12
## 80059           2 years 690 694 21.98
## 15825           5 years 695 699  9.99
## 33182           9 years 695 699 11.71
## 62403           3 years 670 674 15.31
names(q)[names(q) == "m"] <- "Interest"  # Colname is updated with Interest

Below is to categorize Debt to Income Ratio

q$n <- sub("%", "", q$Debt.To.Income.Ratio)  #Replaces %in debt to income ratio
names(q)[names(q) == "n"] <- "DI_Ratio"
q$DI_Ratio <- as.numeric(q$DI_Ratio)
q$Category[q$DI_Ratio < 10] <- "A"  # categorizing DI ratio as A
q$Category[q$DI_Ratio >= 10 & q$DI_Ratio < 15] <- "B"  # categorizing DI ratio as B
q$Category[q$DI_Ratio >= 15 & q$DI_Ratio < 20] <- "C"  # categorizing DI ratio as C
q$Category[q$DI_Ratio >= 20] <- "D"  # categorizing DI ratio as D

Below is to find numerical vlaues of loadn length

q$LL <- sub(" months", "", q$Loan.Length)
names(q)[names(q) == "LL"] <- "LLen"
q$LLen <- as.numeric(q$LLen)

lapply(q, class)  # To understand type of each column
## $Amount.Requested
## [1] "integer"
## 
## $Amount.Funded.By.Investors
## [1] "numeric"
## 
## $Interest.Rate
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $Loan.Length
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $Loan.Purpose
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $Debt.To.Income.Ratio
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $State
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $Home.Ownership
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $Monthly.Income
## [1] "numeric"
## 
## $FICO.Range
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $Open.CREDIT.Lines
## [1] "integer"
## 
## $Revolving.CREDIT.Balance
## [1] "integer"
## 
## $Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months
## [1] "integer"
## 
## $Employment.Length
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $F1
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $F2
## [1] "factor"
## 
## $Interest
## [1] "numeric"
## 
## $DI_Ratio
## [1] "numeric"
## 
## $Category
## [1] "character"
## 
## $LLen
## [1] "numeric"

Graphs to understand data

attach(q)
boxplot(Interest ~ F1, data = q)

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plot(q$Amount.Requested, q$Interes)

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plot(q$F2, q$Interest)

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plot(q$Home.Ownership, q$Interest)

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plot(q$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months, q$Interest)

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plot(q$Loan.Length, q$Interest)  # Higher the loan length more the interest

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plot(q$Open.CREDIT.Lines, q$Interest)

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plot(q$Employment.Length, q$Interest)

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a <- subset(q, q$Revolving.CREDIT.Balance < 50000)
plot(a$Revolving.CREDIT.Balance, a$Interest)  # lower the credit balance, lower the interest

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plot(q$Loan.Purpose, q$Interest)

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Graphs to understand impact of Debt_to_income_ratio

A <- subset(q, q$Category == "A")
B <- subset(q, q$Category == "B")
C <- subset(q, q$Category == "C")
D <- subset(q, q$Category == "D")
plot(D$Interest)  # plot of DI ratio >=20

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plot(C$Interest)  # plot of DI ratio <20 & >=15

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plot(B$Interest)  # plot of DI ratio <15 & >=10

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Correlation analysis to find out the relation between interest and other variables

cdf <- q[, c(1, 9, 11, 12, 13, 16, 17, 18, 20)]  # a new dataframe with variables of interest
cdf$F2 <- as.numeric(cdf$F2)  # Conversting FICO range upper value to a numeric to conduct cor
cor(cdf)  # Generates coorelation matrix
##                                Amount.Requested Monthly.Income
## Amount.Requested                        1.00000        0.39118
## Monthly.Income                          0.39118        1.00000
## Open.CREDIT.Lines                       0.19594        0.17140
## Revolving.CREDIT.Balance                0.29337        0.35968
## Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months         -0.02956        0.03395
## F2                                      0.08334        0.12277
## Interest                                0.33183        0.01292
## DI_Ratio                                0.08129       -0.16234
## LLen                                    0.41230        0.07454
##                                Open.CREDIT.Lines Revolving.CREDIT.Balance
## Amount.Requested                         0.19594                 0.293365
## Monthly.Income                           0.17140                 0.359684
## Open.CREDIT.Lines                        1.00000                 0.290085
## Revolving.CREDIT.Balance                 0.29009                 1.000000
## Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months           0.11074                 0.012186
## F2                                      -0.08950                 0.002735
## Interest                                 0.09031                 0.061109
## DI_Ratio                                 0.37085                 0.189221
## LLen                                     0.04089                 0.055436
##                                Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months        F2
## Amount.Requested                                     -0.02956  0.083338
## Monthly.Income                                        0.03395  0.122766
## Open.CREDIT.Lines                                     0.11074 -0.089497
## Revolving.CREDIT.Balance                              0.01219  0.002735
## Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months                        1.00000 -0.092142
## F2                                                   -0.09214  1.000000
## Interest                                              0.16465 -0.709283
## DI_Ratio                                              0.01198 -0.216921
## LLen                                                  0.02384  0.012736
##                                Interest DI_Ratio    LLen
## Amount.Requested                0.33183  0.08129 0.41230
## Monthly.Income                  0.01292 -0.16234 0.07454
## Open.CREDIT.Lines               0.09031  0.37085 0.04089
## Revolving.CREDIT.Balance        0.06111  0.18922 0.05544
## Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months  0.16465  0.01198 0.02384
## F2                             -0.70928 -0.21692 0.01274
## Interest                        1.00000  0.17220 0.42351
## DI_Ratio                        0.17220  1.00000 0.02499
## LLen                            0.42351  0.02499 1.00000

ABove results suggest that there is high corection between Interest Rate and a. Amount.requested (0.3318) b. Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months (0.1646) c. DI_Ratio (0.172) d. LLen (0.423) e FICO vlaue (-0.7092) f.Open.CREDIT.Lines ( 0.09030695)

Below plot will graphically illustrate the impact of correlation

cdr <- abs(cor(cdf))
cd.col <- dmat.color(cdr)
cd.or <- order.single(cdr)
cpairs(cdf, cd.or, panel.colors = cd.col, gap = 0.5, main = "Correlation")

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Fitting regression equation with above varaibles

Linear <- lm(cdf$Interest ~ cdf$F2)

par(mfrow = c(2, 2))
plot(Linear)

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residual_values <- residuals(Linear)
hist(residual_values)
plot(cdf$Interest, residual_values, ylab = "Residuals", xlab = "Interest Rate", 
    main = "Graph of Interest Rate vs Residuals")

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Below will stanadardize residuals. Should not expect to see any residual beyond -3 to +3. If there is a residual beyond this range, then further investigation need to be done.

standard_residual <- rstandard(Linear)
hist(standard_residual)

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As all values are within range of -3 to +3, further investigation is not required. To determine coefficient of linerar model:

coefs <- coefficients(Linear)
coefs
## (Intercept)      cdf$F2 
##     19.0719     -0.4235

To find a interest rate for a new value of F2, let new value of F2 be 100, then

newdata <- data.frame(F2 = 100)
predict(Linear, newdata)  # - need to further check on why predict is not working
## Warning: 'newdata' had 1 rows but variable(s) found have 2498 rows
##      1      2      3      4      5      6      7      8      9     10 
## 10.602 12.296 14.413 13.990 13.990 16.107 11.872 13.143 14.837 12.296 
##     11     12     13     14     15     16     17     18     19     20 
## 16.107 16.531 16.107 10.602 11.449 11.025 13.990 10.178 11.025  8.484 
##     21     22     23     24     25     26     27     28     29     30 
## 16.531 13.990 16.531 13.990 16.107 13.143 15.684 15.684  8.061  8.484 
##     31     32     33     34     35     36     37     38     39     40 
## 14.837 14.837 11.872 14.837 15.684  6.790 11.872  2.979 12.296 16.954 
##     41     42     43     44     45     46     47     48     49     50 
## 16.107 11.872 16.954 16.954 15.684 12.296 12.719 16.107  6.367 13.143 
##     51     52     53     54     55     56     57     58     59     60 
##  9.331 16.954 13.566 16.531 15.260 11.449 16.107 12.296 14.413  8.908 
##     61     62     63     64     65     66     67     68     69     70 
## 13.143 12.296 15.260 16.531 11.025 11.449 14.837 14.837 13.143 13.990 
##     71     72     73     74     75     76     77     78     79     80 
## 13.990 12.296 10.602 16.531 16.107 16.107  5.943 13.566 16.531 11.449 
##     81     82     83     84     85     86     87     88     89     90 
## 12.719  8.484 15.260 14.413 13.990 11.449  4.249 15.684  9.331 14.837 
##     91     92     93     94     95     96     97     98     99    100 
## 16.531  8.061 16.107 15.684 15.684  9.331  8.061 10.602 16.531 16.107 
##    101    102    103    104    105    106    107    108    109    110 
## 13.566 13.143 10.178 14.413 11.872  8.061 12.296 12.719 14.413 12.719 
##    111    112    113    114    115    116    117    118    119    120 
##  7.214  3.826  9.755 16.954 14.413 12.719 11.449 15.684  8.061 10.602 
##    121    122    123    124    125    126    127    128    129    130 
## 13.566 10.602 14.413  8.484 15.260 13.990 15.684 13.566 13.990 15.684 
##    131    132    133    134    135    136    137    138    139    140 
## 11.025 16.531 15.684 15.260 11.449 16.954  4.673  9.755 10.178 13.566 
##    141    142    143    144    145    146    147    148    149    150 
## 11.872 16.954 10.602 13.566 13.143 11.449 16.954 10.602 11.449 13.143 
##    151    152    153    154    155    156    157    158    159    160 
## 16.107 11.872 12.296 13.143 12.719 14.413 13.143 14.837 16.954 16.531 
##    161    162    163    164    165    166    167    168    169    170 
##  9.755 10.178 16.531 13.990 15.260 13.566 12.296 12.719 11.872 16.531 
##    171    172    173    174    175    176    177    178    179    180 
## 13.566 14.837 11.449 14.837 15.260  9.331  5.096 10.178 11.025 11.872 
##    181    182    183    184    185    186    187    188    189    190 
## 13.566 13.990 13.990 13.566 16.107  9.755 15.684 10.178 16.954 11.025 
##    191    192    193    194    195    196    197    198    199    200 
##  9.755 13.566 15.684 16.531 11.025  9.755  8.908  5.943 11.449 16.107 
##    201    202    203    204    205    206    207    208    209    210 
## 16.531 14.837  9.331 12.296 13.566  9.331 11.025  8.908 14.413 14.413 
##    211    212    213    214    215    216    217    218    219    220 
## 10.602 13.566 14.413 15.684 16.531 11.025 13.143 15.260  8.484 11.449 
##    221    222    223    224    225    226    227    228    229    230 
## 14.837 12.719 16.531 11.872 16.954  9.331 12.719 11.025 16.531 14.413 
##    231    232    233    234    235    236    237    238    239    240 
## 16.107 16.954 16.107 16.531 16.531  9.331 11.872 15.260 14.837  8.484 
##    241    242    243    244    245    246    247    248    249    250 
## 13.566 13.990  9.331 15.260  9.331  5.943 10.178 12.296 12.719 11.449 
##    251    252    253    254    255    256    257    258    259    260 
##  8.484 11.025 14.837 13.143 16.107 15.684 16.107 13.566 16.531 16.531 
##    261    262    263    264    265    266    267    268    269    270 
##  9.331 11.872 11.025  5.096  4.673 15.260 11.025 11.449 13.990 14.413 
##    271    272    273    274    275    276    277    278    279    280 
## 13.990 12.296 16.531 16.107 16.531 14.837 16.107 12.296 12.296 11.872 
##    281    282    283    284    285    286    287    288    289    290 
## 16.531  6.790 13.143 14.413 16.107 13.143 15.684 14.837 15.684 11.025 
##    291    292    293    294    295    296    297    298    299    300 
## 15.260 16.107  9.331  9.755 17.378 14.413 14.413  7.214  9.331 16.531 
##    301    302    303    304    305    306    307    308    309    310 
## 16.954 11.025  5.096  8.908  5.943 14.837  9.331 13.990 14.837  7.637 
##    311    312    313    314    315    316    317    318    319    320 
## 13.143  5.520 12.296 14.837 16.531 13.143 16.954 10.178 15.260 11.025 
##    321    322    323    324    325    326    327    328    329    330 
##  6.367  8.908 16.531 16.531 16.954 14.837 15.260 13.566 16.107 11.025 
##    331    332    333    334    335    336    337    338    339    340 
## 16.107 12.719 12.719  8.908  6.790 12.296 12.719 14.837 14.413 16.954 
##    341    342    343    344    345    346    347    348    349    350 
##  6.367 11.872 11.872 12.719 15.684 14.413 14.837 15.684 15.684 14.413 
##    351    352    353    354    355    356    357    358    359    360 
## 14.413  5.943 12.719 15.684  8.484 16.107 12.296 10.178 15.684 13.990 
##    361    362    363    364    365    366    367    368    369    370 
## 12.719 12.719 14.837 14.413 10.602 16.954 12.719 10.178 10.602 14.413 
##    371    372    373    374    375    376    377    378    379    380 
## 16.954  7.637  8.908 12.719 16.531 13.566 13.143  5.943 14.837 14.413 
##    381    382    383    384    385    386    387    388    389    390 
## 12.296 13.143 13.566 11.449 14.413 11.872 14.413 11.872 14.837 16.531 
##    391    392    393    394    395    396    397    398    399    400 
## 13.566 15.260 16.107 15.260 16.107 14.413 13.566  6.790  7.214 10.602 
##    401    402    403    404    405    406    407    408    409    410 
## 14.837  8.908 12.296 11.025 15.260 16.107 14.837  9.331 13.143 15.260 
##    411    412    413    414    415    416    417    418    419    420 
## 15.684 16.531 13.990 14.413 13.566 13.566 13.566 11.025 12.296 14.413 
##    421    422    423    424    425    426    427    428    429    430 
## 15.684 11.449 11.025 10.602 14.837 16.107 14.837 12.296 13.143 14.413 
##    431    432    433    434    435    436    437    438    439    440 
## 13.990 12.296 12.719 10.602  8.484 12.296 13.143 11.449 11.025 15.684 
##    441    442    443    444    445    446    447    448    449    450 
## 13.990 16.954  8.484 15.260 11.025 11.025 13.143 11.872 13.143 14.837 
##    451    452    453    454    455    456    457    458    459    460 
## 16.107 11.025 11.025 14.837 13.566 15.684 16.531 11.872 11.449 13.566 
##    461    462    463    464    465    466    467    468    469    470 
## 16.107  6.790 11.449 11.872 16.954 13.566 14.837 11.025 15.260 15.260 
##    471    472    473    474    475    476    477    478    479    480 
## 10.178 16.107  6.790 11.025 14.413 13.990 16.954 16.531 13.990 15.260 
##    481    482    483    484    485    486    487    488    489    490 
## 14.837 14.413 15.684 16.531 11.872 16.531 12.296 14.413 13.143 13.143 
##    491    492    493    494    495    496    497    498    499    500 
## 15.684 11.449 15.684 14.413 16.107 11.449 13.566 16.107 15.260 16.107 
##    501    502    503    504    505    506    507    508    509    510 
## 13.566 15.260 14.413 14.837 15.684  9.755 15.260 14.837 16.107 10.602 
##    511    512    513    514    515    516    517    518    519    520 
## 11.025 14.413 11.449  8.484  9.755  7.214 12.719  8.484 12.296 12.296 
##    521    522    523    524    525    526    527    528    529    530 
##  9.331 13.566  8.908 16.107 16.531  9.331 16.107 15.684 15.260 16.107 
##    531    532    533    534    535    536    537    538    539    540 
##  7.214 16.531 16.954 16.531 15.684 15.260 15.260 16.107 11.025 13.143 
##    541    542    543    544    545    546    547    548    549    550 
## 10.178 14.837 16.107 11.872 14.837 15.684 11.449 10.178 12.296 16.107 
##    551    552    553    554    555    556    557    558    559    560 
## 13.566 14.837 14.837 16.954 11.872 16.107 12.719 10.178 15.260 10.178 
##    561    562    563    564    565    566    567    568    569    570 
## 16.531 12.719 14.837 16.107 13.990 11.872  7.637 13.143 16.107 14.413 
##    571    572    573    574    575    576    577    578    579    580 
## 11.025 14.837 14.413 13.990 11.449 11.025 15.684 15.260 11.872 14.413 
##    581    582    583    584    585    586    587    588    589    590 
## 16.531 14.413 16.954 15.260 14.837 13.990 14.413 10.602  8.484  9.331 
##    591    592    593    594    595    596    597    598    599    600 
##  5.943 10.178 11.872 16.954 13.566 13.566 15.260 14.413 13.566 16.107 
##    601    602    603    604    605    606    607    608    609    610 
##  6.790 16.531 13.566 13.143 15.684 14.837 14.837 14.413  5.096 11.449 
##    611    612    613    614    615    616    617    618    619    620 
## 14.413  9.331 13.566  5.943 14.837 11.872 15.684 13.143 15.260 10.602 
##    621    622    623    624    625    626    627    628    629    630 
## 13.143 15.684 10.178  8.908 13.143 12.719 13.566  6.367 14.413 16.107 
##    631    632    633    634    635    636    637    638    639    640 
## 12.719 11.872 13.566 13.990 11.872 12.719 13.990 12.296 11.449 10.602 
##    641    642    643    644    645    646    647    648    649    650 
## 12.719 15.684 15.684 12.719 11.025 11.025 11.872 18.648 13.566 15.260 
##    651    652    653    654    655    656    657    658    659    660 
## 10.602 11.872 15.684 14.413 11.449 11.872 11.025 12.719  8.484  5.520 
##    661    662    663    664    665    666    667    668    669    670 
## 16.954 15.260 13.990 10.602 16.107 14.837 13.143 14.413 13.990 16.531 
##    671    672    673    674    675    676    677    678    679    680 
## 15.260  9.755 14.837 16.531  9.755 15.684 11.449 11.449 12.719 11.449 
##    681    682    683    684    685    686    687    688    689    690 
## 14.413 16.107 13.990 11.872  6.367 15.684 13.990 14.837 16.531 16.954 
##    691    692    693    694    695    696    697    698    699    700 
## 13.566 14.413 16.531 13.566 11.872 16.107 11.449 13.143 14.413  9.755 
##    701    702    703    704    705    706    707    708    709    710 
## 18.648 13.143 16.531 16.531 15.684  6.790 14.413 16.531 16.531 15.684 
##    711    712    713    714    715    716    717    718    719    720 
## 15.260 16.954 12.296 12.719 16.107  7.214 15.260 16.531 16.531 15.684 
##    721    722    723    724    725    726    727    728    729    730 
## 12.719 13.990 15.260 12.719 12.296 16.107 12.296 13.990 16.107 14.837 
##    731    732    733    734    735    736    737    738    739    740 
## 13.990 15.684 13.990 15.260  7.637 10.602 12.296 11.872 16.531 14.837 
##    741    742    743    744    745    746    747    748    749    750 
## 15.260 16.107 15.684 16.107 11.449 16.954 13.566 15.684 13.143 14.413 
##    751    752    753    754    755    756    757    758    759    760 
## 11.872 16.531 15.260 15.684 15.260 16.107 15.260 14.837 15.260 14.413 
##    761    762    763    764    765    766    767    768    769    770 
## 11.872 16.531 11.025 16.107 15.260 16.531 16.954 13.143 14.413 11.872 
##    771    772    773    774    775    776    777    778    779    780 
## 13.566 13.143 11.872 12.719 16.954 12.719 16.531  9.755 12.719  9.755 
##    781    782    783    784    785    786    787    788    789    790 
## 16.954 11.025 11.025 16.107 11.025 13.143 11.025 16.531 13.566 16.107 
##    791    792    793    794    795    796    797    798    799    800 
##  9.755 16.107 13.566 11.449 13.566 16.107 16.531  9.755 12.719 16.107 
##    801    802    803    804    805    806    807    808    809    810 
## 11.872 13.143 15.260 12.296 10.602  5.943  8.908  9.331 15.260 16.107 
##    811    812    813    814    815    816    817    818    819    820 
## 16.954 14.837 16.107 11.449  6.790 14.413 13.143 14.837 11.872 16.954 
##    821    822    823    824    825    826    827    828    829    830 
## 16.531 15.260 15.684  8.061 13.566 13.566 11.025 11.449 16.954 12.719 
##    831    832    833    834    835    836    837    838    839    840 
## 13.566  5.943  7.214 14.413  9.755 11.025 15.684 14.413 15.260 10.178 
##    841    842    843    844    845    846    847    848    849    850 
## 16.107  6.790  4.249 13.566 13.990 16.107 11.872  8.061  8.484 15.260 
##    851    852    853    854    855    856    857    858    859    860 
## 15.684 14.837 11.872 15.684  8.061 16.531 14.413 15.684 15.260 13.566 
##    861    862    863    864    865    866    867    868    869    870 
## 11.872 10.602 13.143  9.331 13.566 16.954  7.637 16.954 12.296 15.684 
##    871    872    873    874    875    876    877    878    879    880 
## 10.178 13.990 11.449  6.790 13.143  9.755 10.602 16.531 16.107 13.566 
##    881    882    883    884    885    886    887    888    889    890 
## 16.107  6.367 13.143 10.178  9.755  8.061 15.260 13.990 13.990 13.143 
##    891    892    893    894    895    896    897    898    899    900 
## 11.025 14.413  7.637 11.449 11.449 12.296 16.107 16.107 14.413 16.531 
##    901    902    903    904    905    906    907    908    909    910 
##  6.790 14.837  6.790 15.684 16.107 15.684 10.602 11.025 11.872 15.684 
##    911    912    913    914    915    916    917    918    919    920 
## 15.684 16.531 16.107 15.684 14.837 13.566 10.602  9.331  7.637 16.107 
##    921    922    923    924    925    926    927    928    929    930 
##  8.484 15.684 11.025 13.143 11.025 16.954 14.837 12.719 13.990 10.178 
##    931    932    933    934    935    936    937    938    939    940 
## 13.990  8.484 15.260 11.872 16.107 12.719 11.872 14.837 15.684 15.684 
##    941    942    943    944    945    946    947    948    949    950 
## 14.413 11.025 12.719 13.990 15.260 11.025 13.566 13.990 13.566 10.178 
##    951    952    953    954    955    956    957    958    959    960 
## 13.143  8.061 11.449  8.908 13.566 14.413 16.954 12.719 11.872 13.143 
##    961    962    963    964    965    966    967    968    969    970 
## 16.531 12.719  9.331 13.990 16.107 12.719 13.566  8.061 11.449 13.566 
##    971    972    973    974    975    976    977    978    979    980 
##  8.061 16.531 13.990 12.719 13.566  9.755 13.143 15.684  8.484 14.837 
##    981    982    983    984    985    986    987    988    989    990 
## 10.178  5.943 15.684  9.331  8.484 14.413 16.107 12.719 16.954 16.954 
##    991    992    993    994    995    996    997    998    999   1000 
## 16.531 11.449 13.990 14.837  8.908 15.260 16.107 13.990 11.025  8.484 
##   1001   1002   1003   1004   1005   1006   1007   1008   1009   1010 
## 13.143 14.837 11.872 15.684  5.943 11.872 10.602  5.943 14.837 15.260 
##   1011   1012   1013   1014   1015   1016   1017   1018   1019   1020 
##  9.755 14.413 14.837 13.990 13.990 10.602 12.296 16.954 15.260 14.413 
##   1021   1022   1023   1024   1025   1026   1027   1028   1029   1030 
## 15.684 13.990 13.143 13.990 11.449 15.684 10.602 15.684 13.143 13.990 
##   1031   1032   1033   1034   1035   1036   1037   1038   1039   1040 
## 15.684 13.990 11.025 14.837 16.107 16.954 14.413  6.367  6.367 14.413 
##   1041   1042   1043   1044   1045   1046   1047   1048   1049   1050 
## 13.990 12.719 16.531  8.061 16.107 11.872 12.719  9.755 15.684 15.260 
##   1051   1052   1053   1054   1055   1056   1057   1058   1059   1060 
## 11.872 15.260 14.413 14.837 16.107 15.260 11.025 13.990 13.566  8.484 
##   1061   1062   1063   1064   1065   1066   1067   1068   1069   1070 
## 11.872 16.531 15.260 13.566 10.602 13.143  6.790 14.413 16.954 12.296 
##   1071   1072   1073   1074   1075   1076   1077   1078   1079   1080 
## 16.954 15.260 15.260 12.296 15.260 16.107 12.296 15.260 11.025  8.484 
##   1081   1082   1083   1084   1085   1086   1087   1088   1089   1090 
##  9.755 11.872 13.143 15.260 15.684 12.719 16.107 12.296 16.107 11.872 
##   1091   1092   1093   1094   1095   1096   1097   1098   1099   1100 
## 13.143  8.484 15.684 13.990 15.684 11.872 15.260 12.719  9.331 13.990 
##   1101   1102   1103   1104   1105   1106   1107   1108   1109   1110 
## 15.684  4.673 11.449 11.872 14.837 16.954 15.684 13.990 11.025  5.520 
##   1111   1112   1113   1114   1115   1116   1117   1118   1119   1120 
## 16.107 14.837 16.531 15.260 16.107 13.566 11.449 11.872 13.990  8.061 
##   1121   1122   1123   1124   1125   1126   1127   1128   1129   1130 
##  8.061  9.331 16.954  8.061 10.178 16.107 15.684 10.178 15.684  9.755 
##   1131   1132   1133   1134   1135   1136   1137   1138   1139   1140 
## 11.872  8.908 11.872 16.107  8.061 16.954 16.531 16.954 15.684  8.908 
##   1141   1142   1143   1144   1145   1146   1147   1148   1149   1150 
## 12.296  7.637 12.296 13.143  8.484 15.260 12.296 14.837 14.837 16.954 
##   1151   1152   1153   1154   1155   1156   1157   1158   1159   1160 
## 11.872  8.908 15.684 13.990  9.331 13.566 14.413 14.413 13.566  5.943 
##   1161   1162   1163   1164   1165   1166   1167   1168   1169   1170 
## 10.178 12.719 17.378  9.331 12.719  8.061 13.143 12.296 16.107  9.755 
##   1171   1172   1173   1174   1175   1176   1177   1178   1179   1180 
## 11.449  8.908  9.755 12.296  8.484 12.296 16.954 12.719 16.107 13.990 
##   1181   1182   1183   1184   1185   1186   1187   1188   1189   1190 
## 16.107 14.413 11.872 13.143 12.719 15.684 13.990 11.449  8.908 11.872 
##   1191   1192   1193   1194   1195   1196   1197   1198   1199   1200 
## 13.990  9.331 13.143 12.719 16.107 15.684 11.025 13.143 16.531 15.684 
##   1201   1202   1203   1204   1205   1206   1207   1208   1209   1210 
##  7.637 11.025 13.566 10.178 13.990 12.719  9.755 16.531 10.602 13.990 
##   1211   1212   1213   1214   1215   1216   1217   1218   1219   1220 
## 13.990 13.143 13.990 12.719  8.908 13.990 15.260 15.684 14.413 14.837 
##   1221   1222   1223   1224   1225   1226   1227   1228   1229   1230 
## 13.990 16.107  7.214 14.837 13.566 13.143  9.755 11.449 16.107 15.684 
##   1231   1232   1233   1234   1235   1236   1237   1238   1239   1240 
## 12.719 11.025  9.331 12.296 16.107 12.719 12.296 13.566 12.719  7.637 
##   1241   1242   1243   1244   1245   1246   1247   1248   1249   1250 
## 10.602 11.449 13.990 11.449 15.684  8.908 16.954 14.837 18.225  8.484 
##   1251   1252   1253   1254   1255   1256   1257   1258   1259   1260 
## 11.025 14.837 15.260 15.684 13.990 13.143 15.684 11.025  8.061 15.260 
##   1261   1262   1263   1264   1265   1266   1267   1268   1269   1270 
## 15.684 13.143 16.531 14.413 12.296 13.990 16.531 11.872 14.413 13.566 
##   1271   1272   1273   1274   1275   1276   1277   1278   1279   1280 
## 16.107 16.531 13.143 13.566 13.990 16.954  8.908 12.296 14.413 13.143 
##   1281   1282   1283   1284   1285   1286   1287   1288   1289   1290 
## 16.954 14.413 11.449 13.566 15.684  7.214 15.260  9.331 14.837  8.484 
##   1291   1292   1293   1294   1295   1296   1297   1298   1299   1300 
##  8.061 13.143  8.484 11.449  4.249 14.837 12.296  9.331 14.837 13.566 
##   1301   1302   1303   1304   1305   1306   1307   1308   1309   1310 
## 13.566 16.954 16.531 18.225 15.260 13.990 16.107  5.096 10.602 14.837 
##   1311   1312   1313   1314   1315   1316   1317   1318   1319   1320 
##  9.755 16.531 12.296  5.096 13.990 14.413 12.719  8.061 12.719 16.107 
##   1321   1322   1323   1324   1325   1326   1327   1328   1329   1330 
##  6.367 13.990 13.990 13.143  5.096 11.025 13.566 11.025  9.331 13.143 
##   1331   1332   1333   1334   1335   1336   1337   1338   1339   1340 
## 15.684 12.719  7.214 11.025 16.954 11.872 11.025 11.025  6.367 13.990 
##   1341   1342   1343   1344   1345   1346   1347   1348   1349   1350 
##  7.637 13.143  6.790 16.107 14.837  8.908 14.413  8.484 16.107 13.566 
##   1351   1352   1353   1354   1355   1356   1357   1358   1359   1360 
## 13.143 16.954  6.790 16.531  8.484 13.990 16.531 16.954 11.449 15.684 
##   1361   1362   1363   1364   1365   1366   1367   1368   1369   1370 
## 13.990  8.908 14.837 14.837  9.331 13.143  8.908 10.178 11.872  9.331 
##   1371   1372   1373   1374   1375   1376   1377   1378   1379   1380 
## 16.107 13.566 14.413 11.872 16.954 15.260 11.025 11.872 10.602 15.260 
##   1381   1382   1383   1384   1385   1386   1387   1388   1389   1390 
## 10.602  6.367 13.566 18.225 11.872 15.260  9.331 15.684 15.684 11.449 
##   1391   1392   1393   1394   1395   1396   1397   1398   1399   1400 
##  6.790 10.602 16.954 11.872 12.296 10.602  8.484 11.449 10.602 14.837 
##   1401   1402   1403   1404   1405   1406   1407   1408   1409   1410 
## 16.954 11.872 14.413 15.684 16.107  6.367 16.107 12.296  8.061 11.025 
##   1411   1412   1413   1414   1415   1416   1417   1418   1419   1420 
## 14.413 16.954  9.755  8.061 12.296  8.061 13.566 11.449 13.990  6.367 
##   1421   1422   1423   1424   1425   1426   1427   1428   1429   1430 
## 16.107  5.943 11.449  5.520 16.107 11.025 12.719 16.954 13.990 11.872 
##   1431   1432   1433   1434   1435   1436   1437   1438   1439   1440 
## 15.684 13.143 11.872  8.484 14.837 16.531 11.449 16.954 12.719 16.954 
##   1441   1442   1443   1444   1445   1446   1447   1448   1449   1450 
##  9.331 16.107 12.296 11.872 13.143  5.096 16.531  9.331 12.296 13.143 
##   1451   1452   1453   1454   1455   1456   1457   1458   1459   1460 
## 14.837 16.107 16.531 10.602 15.260 15.260 13.990 16.531 16.107 15.684 
##   1461   1462   1463   1464   1465   1466   1467   1468   1469   1470 
## 13.566 15.260  8.484 14.837 14.837 15.684  5.943 15.684 16.954 16.954 
##   1471   1472   1473   1474   1475   1476   1477   1478   1479   1480 
## 10.178  9.755 13.990 16.531 11.872 14.413 15.684  9.755 11.025 15.260 
##   1481   1482   1483   1484   1485   1486   1487   1488   1489   1490 
## 16.107 11.872 15.260 15.260 14.413 13.990 16.954 13.566 14.413 16.531 
##   1491   1492   1493   1494   1495   1496   1497   1498   1499   1500 
## 16.954 11.025 15.260 16.107 13.143  8.484 13.566 15.684 13.990 13.990 
##   1501   1502   1503   1504   1505   1506   1507   1508   1509   1510 
## 15.684 15.260 13.990 16.531 16.107 13.143 11.449  8.908 13.143 13.990 
##   1511   1512   1513   1514   1515   1516   1517   1518   1519   1520 
## 11.449 13.566 11.449  6.790 15.260 15.260 15.684 12.719 14.837  7.214 
##   1521   1522   1523   1524   1525   1526   1527   1528   1529   1530 
## 15.260 13.143 13.566 13.143 13.566 16.107 16.531 10.602 12.296 11.449 
##   1531   1532   1533   1534   1535   1536   1537   1538   1539   1540 
## 13.990 11.025 10.602 15.260  9.755  9.331 14.837 15.260 11.449 16.107 
##   1541   1542   1543   1544   1545   1546   1547   1548   1549   1550 
## 14.413 13.566 16.531 14.413 15.684 13.143 12.296 12.296 10.602  9.755 
##   1551   1552   1553   1554   1555   1556   1557   1558   1559   1560 
## 16.954 16.531 16.954 12.296 14.837 11.025 16.954  7.637 15.260 13.990 
##   1561   1562   1563   1564   1565   1566   1567   1568   1569   1570 
## 10.602 14.413 13.566 12.296 13.566 13.566 14.837 13.143 12.719  8.061 
##   1571   1572   1573   1574   1575   1576   1577   1578   1579   1580 
## 15.260 14.837 13.990 12.719 11.872 14.837  8.908 16.107  9.755 16.107 
##   1581   1582   1583   1584   1585   1586   1587   1588   1589   1590 
##  9.331 16.954 11.025 13.143  7.214 11.449 10.602  5.520 14.837 13.143 
##   1591   1592   1593   1594   1595   1596   1597   1598   1599   1600 
## 16.954 10.178 12.719 14.413 15.684 16.954 11.025 13.566 11.872 16.531 
##   1601   1602   1603   1604   1605   1606   1607   1608   1609   1610 
## 14.413 13.143  9.331 13.143 11.872  4.673 14.837 16.107 10.178 15.260 
##   1611   1612   1613   1614   1615   1616   1617   1618   1619   1620 
## 11.449 13.566 16.531  8.908 16.531 14.837  9.331 10.602 10.178  3.826 
##   1621   1622   1623   1624   1625   1626   1627   1628   1629   1630 
## 13.990  6.790 13.990 15.260 16.107 10.602  8.061 16.531 14.413 12.719 
##   1631   1632   1633   1634   1635   1636   1637   1638   1639   1640 
## 18.648 11.025 10.178 12.719 11.449 16.531 11.449 13.990 13.990 16.107 
##   1641   1642   1643   1644   1645   1646   1647   1648   1649   1650 
##  8.484  5.943 15.260 13.990 11.025 11.872 16.531  8.908 16.954  9.755 
##   1651   1652   1653   1654   1655   1656   1657   1658   1659   1660 
## 16.954 16.954  8.484 11.872 16.531  8.908  4.249 13.566  8.061 13.143 
##   1661   1662   1663   1664   1665   1666   1667   1668   1669   1670 
## 14.413  3.402 15.684 14.837 14.837 13.143 16.107 16.107 13.566 14.413 
##   1671   1672   1673   1674   1675   1676   1677   1678   1679   1680 
## 15.684 16.531 15.260 12.296 12.719 14.837 13.143 11.025 11.025 15.684 
##   1681   1682   1683   1684   1685   1686   1687   1688   1689   1690 
## 16.531 13.990 13.566  4.249 18.648 15.260  7.214 15.260 15.260 16.107 
##   1691   1692   1693   1694   1695   1696   1697   1698   1699   1700 
## 15.684 11.449 16.954 13.990 16.107  3.826 11.025 14.837 13.143 13.143 
##   1701   1702   1703   1704   1705   1706   1707   1708   1709   1710 
## 12.296 11.025 13.990 16.954 12.719 15.260 13.143 15.260  7.214 14.837 
##   1711   1712   1713   1714   1715   1716   1717   1718   1719   1720 
##  8.908 15.260 15.260 11.872  9.755 10.602 14.837  8.484 14.837 14.837 
##   1721   1722   1723   1724   1725   1726   1727   1728   1729   1730 
## 11.449 13.990 13.990 13.143  7.214 13.566 14.413 12.296 16.531 14.837 
##   1731   1732   1733   1734   1735   1736   1737   1738   1739   1740 
## 14.413 11.872 10.178 16.107 14.837 10.178 13.566 13.990 15.684 11.872 
##   1741   1742   1743   1744   1745   1746   1747   1748   1749   1750 
## 16.954 11.025 16.531 15.684 13.566 15.260 11.025 12.719 14.413 13.566 
##   1751   1752   1753   1754   1755   1756   1757   1758   1759   1760 
##  9.331 16.531 16.954 14.413 16.107 11.872 13.990 15.684 12.296 12.719 
##   1761   1762   1763   1764   1765   1766   1767   1768   1769   1770 
## 16.954 17.378 13.566 15.684  8.908 11.449 16.107 13.566  7.637 11.872 
##   1771   1772   1773   1774   1775   1776   1777   1778   1779   1780 
##  9.331  4.673 15.260 13.566 12.719 13.566 13.990 15.260  9.755 12.296 
##   1781   1782   1783   1784   1785   1786   1787   1788   1789   1790 
## 12.719  5.096 14.837 13.990 15.684 11.449 16.954 12.296 15.260 14.837 
##   1791   1792   1793   1794   1795   1796   1797   1798   1799   1800 
## 14.837 12.719 16.954 13.566 12.296  8.908 13.143 13.566 13.990 14.413 
##   1801   1802   1803   1804   1805   1806   1807   1808   1809   1810 
## 11.449 10.178 16.531 13.990  9.331 12.296 11.872 12.719 12.296  8.908 
##   1811   1812   1813   1814   1815   1816   1817   1818   1819   1820 
## 10.178 13.143  6.790 13.566 13.143 16.531  8.908 13.990 15.684 14.837 
##   1821   1822   1823   1824   1825   1826   1827   1828   1829   1830 
## 15.260 16.954 16.107 12.719 13.143 11.872 11.449 11.449 13.566 13.990 
##   1831   1832   1833   1834   1835   1836   1837   1838   1839   1840 
## 13.566 16.107 13.566 15.260 11.449 16.107 15.260 11.872 13.566 13.566 
##   1841   1842   1843   1844   1845   1846   1847   1848   1849   1850 
## 14.413 14.837 14.413 15.260 16.107 12.296  9.755 14.837 15.260  4.673 
##   1851   1852   1853   1854   1855   1856   1857   1858   1859   1860 
##  4.249 11.449 16.107 14.837 10.178 16.531  4.673 15.684 15.260 11.025 
##   1861   1862   1863   1864   1865   1866   1867   1868   1869   1870 
## 15.260 16.954 15.260  7.214  5.943 15.684 10.178 15.260 12.296 16.107 
##   1871   1872   1873   1874   1875   1876   1877   1878   1879   1880 
##  8.484 12.719 13.143 13.143 16.107 13.143 13.990 14.413  9.331 14.413 
##   1881   1882   1883   1884   1885   1886   1887   1888   1889   1890 
## 11.449 16.107 15.260  9.755 11.025 16.107 13.143 11.449  8.908  6.790 
##   1891   1892   1893   1894   1895   1896   1897   1898   1899   1900 
## 11.025 13.143 16.531 16.107 10.602 10.178 14.413 14.837 13.143 12.296 
##   1901   1902   1903   1904   1905   1906   1907   1908   1909   1910 
##  8.484 15.684 12.296 14.413 13.990  9.755  9.755 12.296 16.954  6.367 
##   1911   1912   1913   1914   1915   1916   1917   1918   1919   1920 
## 13.566 15.260 13.990 14.413 11.872 13.143 13.566 16.531 13.990 14.837 
##   1921   1922   1923   1924   1925   1926   1927   1928   1929   1930 
## 12.719 16.954 16.531  6.790 12.296 13.143 15.684 13.566 11.872 15.260 
##   1931   1932   1933   1934   1935   1936   1937   1938   1939   1940 
## 15.260 13.566 13.990  8.484 15.684 11.872 10.602 14.837  7.214 15.684 
##   1941   1942   1943   1944   1945   1946   1947   1948   1949   1950 
##  9.331 13.990  8.908 16.954 12.719 13.566 10.602 16.107  3.826 11.025 
##   1951   1952   1953   1954   1955   1956   1957   1958   1959   1960 
## 12.296 13.566 14.413 12.296 14.837 11.872  5.520 13.143 16.531 16.531 
##   1961   1962   1963   1964   1965   1966   1967   1968   1969   1970 
## 16.531 12.719 14.413 15.684 11.449 14.413 13.990 11.872 14.413 12.296 
##   1971   1972   1973   1974   1975   1976   1977   1978   1979   1980 
## 13.143  9.331 16.531 12.719  9.755 14.837 15.684 16.954 17.378  8.908 
##   1981   1982   1983   1984   1985   1986   1987   1988   1989   1990 
## 12.719 12.719  9.755  8.908 15.260 15.260 16.107  6.790 12.296 13.143 
##   1991   1992   1993   1994   1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000 
## 12.719 12.719 12.719 12.719  9.331 15.260 13.143 15.684 10.178 13.566 
##   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010 
## 15.260 16.954 13.143 16.107 15.260 14.413 12.719 16.531 12.719 15.260 
##   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020 
## 12.296 13.990 16.107 16.531 14.413  9.331 13.990 13.143 15.684 15.684 
##   2021   2022   2023   2024   2025   2026   2027   2028   2029   2030 
## 10.178 15.684 13.990 14.413 11.872 16.531  4.673  5.943 14.413 12.296 
##   2031   2032   2033   2034   2035   2036   2037   2038   2039   2040 
## 15.260 16.954  7.637 10.602 14.837 10.602 16.531 15.684 10.602 11.872 
##   2041   2042   2043   2044   2045   2046   2047   2048   2049   2050 
##  6.790 10.602 14.413 16.531 15.684  8.908 16.107 16.107  9.331  9.755 
##   2051   2052   2053   2054   2055   2056   2057   2058   2059   2060 
## 12.296 14.413  5.520 16.531 15.684 16.107  9.755  4.673 10.602 11.872 
##   2061   2062   2063   2064   2065   2066   2067   2068   2069   2070 
##  7.637 16.107  9.331 13.990 11.449 15.260 11.025 15.260  7.214 16.531 
##   2071   2072   2073   2074   2075   2076   2077   2078   2079   2080 
## 15.684  5.520 15.260 16.531 10.178  6.367 16.531  5.096  8.908 16.531 
##   2081   2082   2083   2084   2085   2086   2087   2088   2089   2090 
## 15.684 16.107 16.531 14.837  9.755 13.990 15.260 14.837 16.107 15.684 
##   2091   2092   2093   2094   2095   2096   2097   2098   2099   2100 
## 15.684 16.954 16.107 16.531  8.061 16.954 13.143 14.837 14.413  7.214 
##   2101   2102   2103   2104   2105   2106   2107   2108   2109   2110 
## 16.107 13.143 15.260 14.837 15.260 13.143 11.449 13.990 14.413 12.719 
##   2111   2112   2113   2114   2115   2116   2117   2118   2119   2120 
## 11.872 16.531 16.954 13.566 16.107 12.296 13.566 16.531 13.990 15.260 
##   2121   2122   2123   2124   2125   2126   2127   2128   2129   2130 
##  3.826  8.908 13.566 12.296 15.684 14.837 15.260 14.413 16.954  9.331 
##   2131   2132   2133   2134   2135   2136   2137   2138   2139   2140 
##  5.520 14.837  5.520 16.531 11.025 10.178 15.684 11.872 12.719 13.143 
##   2141   2142   2143   2144   2145   2146   2147   2148   2149   2150 
## 13.566 14.413 13.143 14.413 16.954 13.990 15.684 13.990 16.954 14.413 
##   2151   2152   2153   2154   2155   2156   2157   2158   2159   2160 
## 16.954 10.178 11.872 16.107 13.566 10.602 13.990 13.143 16.531 14.837 
##   2161   2162   2163   2164   2165   2166   2167   2168   2169   2170 
## 18.648 13.566  8.061  9.755 16.954 14.413 11.872 13.143 11.025 15.684 
##   2171   2172   2173   2174   2175   2176   2177   2178   2179   2180 
## 15.684  6.367  8.908 14.837 10.178 12.296  5.520 15.684 10.178  8.484 
##   2181   2182   2183   2184   2185   2186   2187   2188   2189   2190 
## 11.449  9.331  5.096  8.484 13.990 13.566 14.837 13.990 15.684  6.367 
##   2191   2192   2193   2194   2195   2196   2197   2198   2199   2200 
## 16.954 15.684 16.954  8.061 15.260 13.143 16.107 16.107 13.143 15.684 
##   2201   2202   2203   2204   2205   2206   2207   2208   2209   2210 
## 11.449 11.025 16.107 11.872 15.684 11.449 13.143 16.954 13.990  8.061 
##   2211   2212   2213   2214   2215   2216   2217   2218   2219   2220 
## 15.260 14.837  8.061 12.719 13.990 13.990 16.107  9.755 13.143 10.602 
##   2221   2222   2223   2224   2225   2226   2227   2228   2229   2230 
##  8.908 14.413 16.954  6.790 10.602 15.260 13.566 16.531 13.143 15.684 
##   2231   2232   2233   2234   2235   2236   2237   2238   2239   2240 
## 14.837 13.990 16.954 16.954 14.413 13.990 15.260 16.954  5.520 11.872 
##   2241   2242   2243   2244   2245   2246   2247   2248   2249   2250 
##  9.331 11.025 13.566 13.990 16.531 14.413 15.684 14.837 14.413 16.531 
##   2251   2252   2253   2254   2255   2256   2257   2258   2259   2260 
## 10.602 16.107 11.872 16.107 12.719 12.719 15.260 15.684 15.684 15.684 
##   2261   2262   2263   2264   2265   2266   2267   2268   2269   2270 
## 15.260  8.484 11.025 10.602  9.755  7.214  9.331 16.107 13.990 14.837 
##   2271   2272   2273   2274   2275   2276   2277   2278   2279   2280 
## 16.107  8.484 13.566 10.602 13.143 11.449 10.602 15.260 15.684 13.990 
##   2281   2282   2283   2284   2285   2286   2287   2288   2289   2290 
## 10.178 16.107 13.990 13.990 14.837 13.566 14.413 15.684 15.684 16.531 
##   2291   2292   2293   2294   2295   2296   2297   2298   2299   2300 
## 15.260 16.954 16.107 16.954 16.954 11.872 13.143 16.107 11.872 14.413 
##   2301   2302   2303   2304   2305   2306   2307   2308   2309   2310 
## 16.531 16.531 15.260  5.520 11.449 13.990  8.061 16.107 10.178 13.990 
##   2311   2312   2313   2314   2315   2316   2317   2318   2319   2320 
## 13.143 14.413 12.296 13.990 15.684  7.637 12.296  9.755 16.107 16.107 
##   2321   2322   2323   2324   2325   2326   2327   2328   2329   2330 
## 16.107 13.990 11.872 12.719 16.954  9.331  6.367 13.990 11.872 13.990 
##   2331   2332   2333   2334   2335   2336   2337   2338   2339   2340 
## 11.025 11.872 16.531 16.954 11.449 15.260  9.755 15.260 13.566  4.249 
##   2341   2342   2343   2344   2345   2346   2347   2348   2349   2350 
## 15.260  6.790 15.684 16.531 14.413  9.331  6.790 14.413 14.413 11.449 
##   2351   2352   2353   2354   2355   2356   2357   2358   2359   2360 
## 13.143 14.413 16.954 14.413 13.566 13.143  4.673 15.260 11.449  4.673 
##   2361   2362   2363   2364   2365   2366   2367   2368   2369   2370 
## 11.025 13.990 16.531  6.367 13.990 16.107 11.449 10.602 12.296 16.954 
##   2371   2372   2373   2374   2375   2376   2377   2378   2379   2380 
## 15.260 12.719  8.061 11.449 13.143 11.449 16.107 12.719 12.719 12.719 
##   2381   2382   2383   2384   2385   2386   2387   2388   2389   2390 
## 15.260 16.531 10.178  8.908 12.719 13.990  7.214 13.143 13.990 15.684 
##   2391   2392   2393   2394   2395   2396   2397   2398   2399   2400 
## 13.990 15.684 16.954  5.096  9.331 15.260  3.826  9.755 13.143 14.413 
##   2401   2402   2403   2404   2405   2406   2407   2408   2409   2410 
## 16.954 14.413 13.143 11.449 15.684 12.719 15.684  7.214  5.943 12.719 
##   2411   2412   2413   2414   2415   2416   2417   2418   2419   2420 
## 10.178 10.602 16.954 16.954 11.025 16.954 15.260 16.107 13.990  8.484 
##   2421   2422   2423   2424   2425   2426   2427   2428   2429   2430 
## 16.531 11.872 16.107 16.531 16.954 14.413  9.755 16.107 16.954 15.684 
##   2431   2432   2433   2434   2435   2436   2437   2438   2439   2440 
## 13.566 13.990 13.566 15.684 12.719  9.331 14.837 16.531 14.413 13.143 
##   2441   2442   2443   2444   2445   2446   2447   2448   2449   2450 
## 15.684 16.954  9.331 11.449 10.178 12.296 15.260 16.531 12.719 16.531 
##   2451   2452   2453   2454   2455   2456   2457   2458   2459   2460 
##  8.061  6.790 15.260 14.413 12.719 13.143 14.837 11.872 12.719 11.872 
##   2461   2462   2463   2464   2465   2466   2467   2468   2469   2470 
## 14.413 10.602 14.837  8.908 16.107 11.025 12.296  8.908 16.531  7.637 
##   2471   2472   2473   2474   2475   2476   2477   2478   2479   2480 
## 14.837 17.801 16.954 15.684 15.684 11.025 11.449 15.260  8.484  4.249 
##   2481   2482   2483   2484   2485   2486   2487   2488   2489   2490 
## 11.872 15.684 14.413  8.061 16.531 16.954 14.837 16.107 12.719 11.872 
##   2491   2492   2493   2494   2495   2496   2497   2498 
## 12.719 15.684 14.837 13.143 10.178 15.260 15.684 16.107

Null Hypothesis of linear regression, says that slope of the line between response variable and predicted variable is zero. However, from below summary, p-value is less than zero. So, null hypothesis will be rejected and concluded that slope of regression line is not zero. Further, adjusted R2 value is ~ 0.5, above model explains 50% of variation.

summary(Linear)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = cdf$Interest ~ cdf$F2)
## 
## Residuals:
##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
## -7.990 -2.136 -0.456  1.835 10.194 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) 19.07189    0.13314   143.2   <2e-16 ***
## cdf$F2      -0.42350    0.00842   -50.3   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 
## 
## Residual standard error: 2.95 on 2496 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.503,   Adjusted R-squared: 0.503 
## F-statistic: 2.53e+03 on 1 and 2496 DF,  p-value: <2e-16
confint(Linear)
##             2.5 % 97.5 %
## (Intercept) 18.81 19.333
## cdf$F2      -0.44 -0.407
anova(Linear)
## Analysis of Variance Table
## 
## Response: cdf$Interest
##             Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)    
## cdf$F2       1  21928   21928    2527 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 2496  21659       9                   
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Below will produce a graph of Interest vs FICO values, with fitted line and residual segments

plot(cdf$Interest ~ cdf$F2)
abline(lm(cdf$Interest ~ cdf$F2))

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-13

segments(cdf$F2, Fitted_values, cdf$F2, cdf$Interest)
## Error: object 'Fitted_values' not found

Below will produce a scatter plot of fitted values vs residual values

Fitted_values <- fitted(Linear)
plot(Fitted_values, residual_values)

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-14

qqnorm(residual_values)

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-14

Pre?dic?tion inter?vals and con?fi?dence inter?vals are not the same thing. Unfor?tu?nately the terms are often con?fused, and I am often fre?quently cor?rect?ing the error in stu?dents? papers and arti?cles I am review?ing or editing.

A pre?dic?tion inter?val is an inter?val asso?ci?ated with a ran?dom vari?able yet to be observed, with a spec?i?fied prob?a?bil?ity of the ran?dom vari?able lying within the inter?val. For exam?ple, I might give an 80% inter?val for the fore?cast of GDP in 2014. The actual GDP in 2014 should lie within the inter?val with prob?a?bil?ity 0.8. Pre?dic?tion inter?vals can arise in Bayesian or fre?quen?tist statistics.

Confidence interval - an interval estimate of population parameter based on a random sample

Degree of confidence - Probability that the confidence interval captures the true populaiton parameter

A con?fi?dence inter?val is an inter?val asso?ci?ated with a para?me?ter and is a fre?quen?tist con?cept. The para?me?ter is assumed to be non-??random but unknown, and the con?fi?dence inter?val is com?puted from data. Because the data are ran?dom, the inter?val is ran?dom. A 95% con?fi?dence inter?val will con?tain the true para?me?ter with prob?a?bil?ity 0.95. That is, with a large num?ber of repeated sam?ples, 95% of the inter?vals would con?tain the true parameter.

Summary shows that FICO values explaines 50% of varaiation for Interest. Because R square value si 0.50

To explain the remainaing variation, multiple regression with variables identified after correlation analysis is done

Rg1 <- lm(cdf$Interest ~ cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months + cdf$DI_Ratio + 
    cdf$LLen + cdf$F2 + cdf$Open.CREDIT.Lines + cdf$Amount.Requested)
summary(Rg1)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = cdf$Interest ~ cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months + 
##     cdf$DI_Ratio + cdf$LLen + cdf$F2 + cdf$Open.CREDIT.Lines + 
##     cdf$Amount.Requested)
## 
## Residuals:
##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
## -9.570 -1.381 -0.168  1.205  9.982 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                         1.21e+01   2.31e-01   52.24  < 2e-16
## cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months  3.52e-01   3.39e-02   10.38  < 2e-16
## cdf$DI_Ratio                        1.23e-03   6.05e-03    0.20     0.84
## cdf$LLen                            1.34e-01   4.57e-03   29.41  < 2e-16
## cdf$F2                             -4.36e-01   6.10e-03  -71.61  < 2e-16
## cdf$Open.CREDIT.Lines              -5.03e-02   1.01e-02   -4.98  6.7e-07
## cdf$Amount.Requested                1.47e-04   5.96e-06   24.67  < 2e-16
##                                       
## (Intercept)                        ***
## cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months ***
## cdf$DI_Ratio                          
## cdf$LLen                           ***
## cdf$F2                             ***
## cdf$Open.CREDIT.Lines              ***
## cdf$Amount.Requested               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 
## 
## Residual standard error: 2.06 on 2491 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.757,   Adjusted R-squared: 0.757 
## F-statistic: 1.3e+03 on 6 and 2491 DF,  p-value: <2e-16
confint(Rg1)
##                                         2.5 %     97.5 %
## (Intercept)                        11.6054002 12.5106546
## cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months  0.2857053  0.4187286
## cdf$DI_Ratio                       -0.0106278  0.0130914
## cdf$LLen                            0.1253267  0.1432347
## cdf$F2                             -0.4484503 -0.4245450
## cdf$Open.CREDIT.Lines              -0.0701221 -0.0305200
## cdf$Amount.Requested                0.0001354  0.0001588

Summary shows that R-squared value is 0.757 Other variables that affect interest rate are a. Amount.requested (0.3318) b. Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months (0.1646) c. DI_Ratio (0.172) d. LLen (0.423) e.#$FICO vlaue (-0.7092) f.Open.CREDIT.Lines ( 0.09030695)

Howeve, to check whether no.of open credit lines really affect interest rate, one more regressiona analysis without Open.credit.lines is done.

Rg2 <- lm(cdf$Interest ~ cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months + cdf$DI_Ratio + 
    cdf$LLen + cdf$F2 + cdf$Amount.Requested)
summary(Rg2)
## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = cdf$Interest ~ cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months + 
##     cdf$DI_Ratio + cdf$LLen + cdf$F2 + cdf$Amount.Requested)
## 
## Residuals:
##    Min     1Q Median     3Q    Max 
## -9.518 -1.363 -0.146  1.229  9.946 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                     Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept)                         1.17e+01   2.23e-01   52.61   <2e-16
## cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months  3.32e-01   3.38e-02    9.80   <2e-16
## cdf$DI_Ratio                       -9.39e-03   5.69e-03   -1.65    0.099
## cdf$LLen                            1.35e-01   4.58e-03   29.55   <2e-16
## cdf$F2                             -4.36e-01   6.12e-03  -71.19   <2e-16
## cdf$Amount.Requested                1.41e-04   5.88e-06   24.05   <2e-16
##                                       
## (Intercept)                        ***
## cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months ***
## cdf$DI_Ratio                       .  
## cdf$LLen                           ***
## cdf$F2                             ***
## cdf$Amount.Requested               ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1 
## 
## Residual standard error: 2.07 on 2492 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.755,   Adjusted R-squared: 0.755 
## F-statistic: 1.54e+03 on 5 and 2492 DF,  p-value: <2e-16
confint(Rg2)
##                                         2.5 %    97.5 %
## (Intercept)                        11.3093363 12.185073
## cdf$Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months  0.2652968  0.397959
## cdf$DI_Ratio                       -0.0205383  0.001766
## cdf$LLen                            0.1264324  0.144403
## cdf$F2                             -0.4479058 -0.423891
## cdf$Amount.Requested                0.0001299  0.000153

R-square value of 0.755 shows that Open.credit.lines does not signifcantly explain or account for interest rate, Hence variables that affect interest rate are a. Amount.requested (0.3318) b. Inquiries.in.the.Last.6.Months (0.1646) c. DI_Ratio (0.172) d. LLen (0.423) e.$FICO vlaue (-0.7092)